How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

Eye witness testimony from Bucha:

 

[Aragorn2002]

12 minutes ago, kraze said:

It didn't recover.

You may not know this but 1 USD was 0.66 rub in USSR.

Problem is you couldn't buy dollar anywhere and owning one was jailtime. But everybody was feeling proud it was so cheap.

It's very much the same in Russia, except for jailtime for having $ (yet).

As in you can't buy dollars anymore. It is forbidden. But you can SELL them to the state. At a sweet price of getting 83 rubles back for one.

Trust Putin to make sure his people pay the price for his mess.

Edited April 4, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Der Zeitgeist]

53 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Personally I prefer sitting in the cold to paying for Putins war.  

I agree.
Unfortunately, an embargo on Russian gas is not just a question of private heating, but of industrial production chains breaking off.

[THH149]

On 4/2/2022 at 12:31 AM, The_Capt said:

In the west "ceasefire" is a prelude to peace...for Russia, not so much.

Agree, like in going over to the defense is merely a temporary pause before offensive operations are resumed...

[Aragorn2002]

1 minute ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

I agree.
Unfortunately, an embargo on Russian gas is not just a question of private heating, but of industrial production chains breaking off.

It's a long road, I know. With the potential of wrecking our economies. Hardly a day passes by without me thinking how the hell we let ourselves get this dependent on Russian energy. Personally I never liked that and I'm hardly the brightest boy in the class.

[Kraft]

16 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Hardly a day passes by without me thinking how the hell we let ourselves get this dependent on Russian energy. Personally I never liked that and I'm hardly the brightest boy in the class.

I think this is largely because the West thought the Cold War to be over.

The western system won and most people thought russia would learn from the lessons, Putin made indiciations as such in his beginning but in retrospect you can see many hints of his KGB past that point to the contrary, but who would move againsdt the new russia that has all the chances to better itself and improve the world with trade,...

But Putin never had the intention of learning from the past because in his mind the pre sov collapse world order is superior to the current one and he appearently has made it his life goal of restoring that, so now Ukraine (with generous help of the western powers) has to teach this old man the same lesson again 

Edited April 4, 2022 by Kraft

[Aragorn2002]

8 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I think this is largely because the West thought the Cold War to be over.

The western system won and most people thought russia would learn from the lessons, Putin made indiciations as such in his beginning but in retrospect you can see many hints of his KGB past that point to the contrary, but who would move againsdt the new russia that has all the chances to better itself and improve the world with trade,...

But Putin never had the intention of learning from the past because in his mind the pre sov collapse world order is superior to the current one and he appearently has made it his life goal of restoring that, so now Ukraine (with generous help of the western powers) has to teach this old man the same lesson again 

I have only one thing to say on that, Kraft. SLAVA UKRAINI!!!

[Der Zeitgeist]

20 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Hardly a day passes by without me thinking how the hell we let ourselves get this dependent on Russian energy. 

It was easy. And cheap.

But it was also politics that was in itself rational and reasonable at each step. In Germany, we had quite a few discussions about increasing the amount of LNG vs. Russian natural gas.

It was never really a viable option, and that goes through most of the political spectrum here. LNG was seen as a more expensive, envirenmentally problematic (because of fracking) and even politically undesirable option (especially during the Trump presidency).

So we stayed with the Russian gas because it always worked out fine until it didn't. 

[Bearstronaut]

Thread summarizing the Russian state media RIA article calling for genocide in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1510910740261134338?s=20&t=V33u8FhFIgN0vF3KkQEvUA

[kraze]

17 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I think this is largely because the West thought the Cold War to be over.

The western system won and most people thought russia would learn from the lessons, Putin made indiciations as such in his beginning but in retrospect you can see many hints of his KGB past that point to the contrary, but who would move againsdt the new russia that has all the chances to better itself and improve the world with trade,...

But Putin never had the intention of learning from the past because in his mind the pre sov collapse world order is superior to the current one and he appearently has made it his life goal of restoring that, so now Ukraine (with generous help of the western powers) has to teach this old man the same lesson again 

Putin? Try Yeltsin. Or literally any random russian dictator that could've been on the throne.

The sole fact that the West completely disregarded horrible russian warcrimes in multiple unjustified wars started by Yeltsin in 1992, just a year after USSR collapse, and instead kept pouring money into Russia and its army while russian soldiers raped, tortured and murdered Moldovans, Georgians and Ichkeriyans is what directly brought us here.

In fact if not for Yeltsin's Russia, which was helping Serbia with those very western resources - there would've been no Srebrenica.

Edited April 4, 2022 by kraze

[Aragorn2002]

6 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

It was easy. And cheap.

But it was also politics that was in itself rational and reasonable at each step. In Germany, we had quite a few discussions about increasing the amount of LNG vs. Russian natural gas.

It was never really a viable option, and that goes through most of the political spectrum here. LNG was seen as a more expensive, envirenmentally problematic (because of fracking) and even politically undesirable option (especially during the Trump presidency).

So we stayed with the Russian gas because it always worked out fine until it didn't. 

In the Netherlands we've been just as blind. We've closed the gas fields in the North of the country, because of 'earth quakes' and the holy environment. Such a stupid move. I wonder whether the Russians had something to do with it, but it must have made them laugh. 

[Aragorn2002]

22 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

Thread summarizing the Russian state media RIA article calling for genocide in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1510910740261134338?s=20&t=V33u8FhFIgN0vF3KkQEvUA

Unbelievable....bloody lunatics.

Edited April 4, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Holien]

7 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

Thread summarizing the Russian state media RIA article calling for genocide in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1510910740261134338?s=20&t=V33u8FhFIgN0vF3KkQEvUA

If the Russian leadership follows this path I can see WW3 and nukes being launched. The nutters in Russia are certainly doubling down,  and some. 

[DesertFox]

The Baltics and Poland shut down all borders and diplomatic relations with the orcs.

I guess they will have to supply Kaliningrad by sea then,,,

 

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

What happened to the 20-30,000 Ukrainians forcibly moved to Russia? Are they still there, in camps?

Edited April 4, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[LongLeftFlank]

UA troops describe the battles near Kiev. RAF air strikes are what they fear most. 

Good sampling of the terrain around Izium. Ivan is still mainly roadbound, looks like. 

Modder shot, for future refence..... 

Riverine forces! (paging @Sgt.Squarehead) 

 

 

Edited April 4, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Haiduk]

Viking-style riverine raid of UKR forces on Russian convoy 

Grey boat with number UA1049MA is a boat UMS-500 class of our UMS manufacturer. These boats are used by riverine police and Border State Guard. Probably all other boats on video are private. 

On the photos Russian convoy after the raid 

Also other victim of the raid - captured BTR-D 

And the raid group after successful action

[akd]

Guardian article on the deportations to Russia from Mariupol.  The deportations into Russia are somewhat loose, probably with the hope that people will simply stay where they are sent because of lack of resources.  And as noted, some are likely going voluntarily to be with family.  The big question is what is happening to the people identified as “nationalists” in the “filtration camps”?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/04/hundreds-of-ukrainians-forcibly-deported-to-russia-say-mariupol-women

Edited April 4, 2022 by akd

[Bearstronaut]

Found the full translation of that RIA Novosti piece. It is some dark stuff man.

https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64

[c3k]

14 hours ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Looking at these, I'm surprised by the choice of storage location for the RPG:

 

 

[c3k]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

From today (April 3) ISW update.  C3K, this is aimed at you:

I think it has to be remembered that Russia had two big advantages in its withdrawal:

1.  All it had to do was get over the Belorussian border and they would be "safe".  This isn't a usual characteristic of a large scale withdrawal.  Normally you have to withdraw to defended lines and if you don't have those put together then things can keep going downhill.  Not so in this case.

2.  The distances the Russians had to cover were quite small.  In some cases as little as 30km, maybe as much as 100km.  A soldier on foot can do 30km in 6-8 hours.  In a vehicle, it's theoretically as little as 1/2 an hour even for something tracked.

These two things combined means the Russians could totally screw up their withdrawal and still probably wind up with most forces in Belarus before Ukraine could cut them off.

However, to pull this off they had to move fast and moving fast probably meant leaving a lot of stuff behind that could have been withdrawn if there was more time.  That added to the losses suffered while in Ukraine does seem to indicate that the units there aren't in good enough shape to immediately feed back into the frontline.

Steve

 

Got it, thanks.

The withdrawal was announced prior to occurring...which is odd. (If I've got my timeline correct.)

If the best conventional Ukrainian units are in the Donbas, then that means Kyiv (<- trying to keep up with the "new" spelling in English) was a classic holding action with tier-2 units. That would explain the inability to pocket/cutoff the retreating Russians. To me, that Russian penetration was ripe for some large-scale surrenders. However, as you state, the distances the Russians needed to cover to get back into protected space were not far. And, they prioritized their VDV...

The speed of the Russian withdrawal was an obvious factor mitigating against a Ukrainian kesselschlacht. (Gotta love the German combat vocabulary.   )  It was good to see some Russian units divested themselves of EVERYTHING. Referencing the swimmers.

About the need to consolidate and rest before going back into battle, I'd think just a few days in Belarus, a day to travel to a border location near east Ukraine, meet there with new supplies/equipment which used their delay in Belarus to get shipped to that rendezvous, and then a few days to get sorted with it. That's ~7-10 days before you'll see them back in combat, by my estimation. VDV maybe sooner. 

As Kinophile posted (among others), the Donbas represents a different problem for Ukraine. Hopefully, their offensive systems are up to challenge.

Putin/Russia will not withdraw voluntarily. They'll have to be pried out and destroyed and whatever remnants sent back over the pre-2014 borders. Luhansk/Donetsk will be another problem. Crimea, even greater.

This war will not end in just a few months. Until Russia is economically devastated as a consequence of Putin's aggression, this will just occur again after Russia re-arms. And, Putin will need to be tossed out. His pride is such that he will not admit defeat. (<- total armchair psychology).

[akd]

This “armor.”  I wonder if it is even steel? Probably aluminum, so just fuel to help the fire burn brighter:

Well, that’s badass:

 

[ASL Veteran]

7 hours ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

 

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Maj. Tyumen Suslov, engineer battalion commander. No unit given:

 

Edited April 4, 2022 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, c3k said:

 

Got it, thanks.

The withdrawal was announced prior to occurring...which is odd. (If I've got my timeline correct.)

You have it correct and that is puzzling, though apparently the best literal translation of the Russian announcement was more along the lines of "we're not going to blow stuff up as much" rather than "we're going to hightail and run".  Either way, they announced their intentions ahead of time.  They would only do that if there was some strategic political gain to be had, because from a tactical and operational standpoint it makes no sense.

9 minutes ago, c3k said:

If the best conventional Ukrainian units are in the Donbas, then that means Kyiv (<- trying to keep up with the "new" spelling in English) was a classic holding action with tier-2 units. That would explain the inability to pocket/cutoff the retreating Russians. To me, that Russian penetration was ripe for some large-scale surrenders. However, as you state, the distances the Russians needed to cover to get back into protected space were not far. And, they prioritized their VDV...

The speed of the Russian withdrawal was an obvious factor mitigating against a Ukrainian kesselschlacht. (Gotta love the German combat vocabulary.   )  It was good to see some Russian units divested themselves of EVERYTHING. Referencing the swimmers.

Yes, it does have to be kept in mind that the Russians got out some equipment, but not all.  It had better luck on the personnel side from the looks of it.  The optimal escape conditions certainly helped that out.

I think this was one of the first signs of intelligence by the Russian command.  Someone there probably had to do some hard facts talking to the Kremlin political command to communicate the reality that if they didn't withdraw right then and there, fast as can be, that they would be pocketed and destroyed.  Given the PR nightmare that would be, not to mention the desperate need for warm bodies for Donbas, it seems apparent that the Kremlin gave in to pragmatism in a way we've not seen elsewhere in this war.

9 minutes ago, c3k said:

About the need to consolidate and rest before going back into battle, I'd think just a few days in Belarus, a day to travel to a border location near east Ukraine, meet there with new supplies/equipment which used their delay in Belarus to get shipped to that rendezvous, and then a few days to get sorted with it. That's ~7-10 days before you'll see them back in combat, by my estimation. VDV maybe sooner. 

That seems to be the consensus for the strategic analysts I've been keeping tabs on.  ISW a few days ago implied that Russia might try and shortcut the process and put them back into action too soon.  That is entirely possible and also consistent with the way Russia has managed this war so far.

9 minutes ago, c3k said:

As Kinophile posted (among others), the Donbas represents a different problem for Ukraine. Hopefully, their offensive systems are up to challenge.

Putin/Russia will not withdraw voluntarily. They'll have to be pried out and destroyed and whatever remnants sent back over the pre-2014 borders. Luhansk/Donetsk will be another problem. Crimea, even greater.

This war will not end in just a few months. Until Russia is economically devastated as a consequence of Putin's aggression, this will just occur again after Russia re-arms. And, Putin will need to be tossed out. His pride is such that he will not admit defeat. (<- total armchair psychology).

Yup.  I've been saying this from the day the war started.  Heck, I bet I was saying even a year ago.  There's only one way this ends... Putin dethroned one way or another.  Either because the army collapses and they lose everything at the front, then Putin goes, or Putin goes first and the new government withdraws with the excuse "that was Putin's mess, so we're not to blame for losing all that territory".

Steve