How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Lethaface]

32 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So now Belarus & its dictator might finally get some international attention, meaning sanctions & war crimes charges I hope

AFAIK they and him are already sanctioned on same level as Russia. By allowing Russia to invade Ukraine from Belarus, Belarus did defacto declare war on Ukraine.

[sburke]

23 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Although aren't there more Belarusians fighting as volunteers on the Ukrainian side than on the Russian side? Or did I dream that report somewhere?

yep Some of them are organized into specific units.

How Belarusian Fighters in Ukraine Evolved Into Prominent Force Against Russian Invasion (voanews.com)

[The Steppenwulf]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

What I don't get is why the Russians don't leave those units near Kiev in order to fix as many Ukrainian units as possible. 

Because they were too focused on piracy rather than soldiering, evidence that they were practically done anyway.

[c3k]

Putin, conscripts, Russian law, and declaring war.

Those are all just figments of the West's imagination. Putin could just wave his hands and say, "The Ukraine is a region of Russia undergoing rebellion. We gave them some loose abilities to govern themselves and now the Hitlerites have taken over. This is an internal security matter. There is no need to declare war, nor does the West have any say on what happens. Or I'll nuke everyone."

That would allow conscripts to flood the zone. (Weaponry would be an issue.)

Moving the shattered BTGs from Kyiv up to the other border locations seems like a good idea (from the Russian perspective). It allows fresh troops to move to the Donbas, allows the remnants time to consolidate, and keeps some security around the periphery.

[danfrodo]

29 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

AFAIK they and him are already sanctioned on same level as Russia. By allowing Russia to invade Ukraine from Belarus, Belarus did defacto declare war on Ukraine.

ah, thanks for that LethaFace.   Good to know.

[Aragorn2002]

33 minutes ago, kraze said:

Because they got smashed. They didn't just "withdraw". They got surrounded and were running away, dropping lots of their stuff, incl a perfectly working Buk and a perfectly working Flap Lid of S300 system.

When you leave perfectly working AD assets with one of them being a strategic control unit that Ukraine is in a dire need of - it's not a withdrawal - it's a rout.

So can we expect more Ukrainian offensive actions in the East and South now, or is the situation there different?

[danfrodo]

so in a somewhat 'crazy' kind of question, what Russian assets are near Ukrainian border that might be opportunities.  I know this is an escalation and only to be used if necessary.  But if Putin takes the Donbas hostage, I wonder if there's some things Ukraine to take to use in negotiations.  Anything valuable near the border I wonder? 

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

So can we expect more Ukrainian offensive actions in the East and South now, or is the situation there different?

It'll be interesting to see how Ukraine plays this.  Big offensive into some weak point in Russia line (hard to mask the buildup)? Or infiltration / drone-arty war for a while?  Try to strike soon or just wear them down?  Big decisions.

Maybe the separatists are weak and can be exploited, though I suppose Russians have enough sense to reinforce them.

[sburke]

10 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

so in a somewhat 'crazy' kind of question, what Russian assets are near Ukrainian border that might be opportunities.  I know this is an escalation and only to be used if necessary.  But if Putin takes the Donbas hostage, I wonder if there's some things Ukraine to take to use in negotiations.  Anything valuable near the border I wonder? 

I hear there is some honkin big bridge down there somewhere 

[Taranis]

46 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Reportedly whole territory of Sumy, Chernihiv and Zhytomyr oblasts now free from Russians. Ukrainian flags are raising up again over cross points. 

On the photo flag raising over Chernihiv border guard detachment directorate.

 

Слава Україні ! Slava Ukraini ! 

[sburke]

Finland Races Toward Likely NATO Membership as Putin's Warnings Backfire (msn.com)

[DesertFox]

Just in case you run across some idiot who tries to tell you UKR have dropped the Bucha corpses after 30th march...

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/04/world/europe/bucha-ukraine-bodies.html

 

Edited April 4, 2022 by DesertFox

[kraze]

40 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

So can we expect more Ukrainian offensive actions in the East and South now, or is the situation there different?

We will see how it goes. Army command is as tight lipped as it ever was.

But we can be sure there's going to be a zerg rush in the east from russians now. They have only one month left to "win" their 2 day "special operation" after all - so that they can march on bones of dead people on may 9th and not dirty unamused red square.

Edited April 4, 2022 by kraze

[Vacillator]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Now get those Stugna-Ps and NLAWs ready...

 

 

I assume that's only the very first part of the 'huge convoy' but it looks like some artillery with several issues.  From their point of view at least they have some fuel I suppose.

[Kinophile]

I'm noting the rapid pivot that the RUS invasion force is making towards the Donbass.

Once Herr Putler had made his decision about what he would accept, the RUS army kicked into gear - dropped Kiev like a hot poop and is now going all in on the Izium theatre. I suspect the higher elites in the Army see this as their last chance to succeed - if they don't, a lot of them will be personally punished/killed. Therefore, this battle will decide not just the war (for the next 3 months anyway) but the political state within Russia:

• Smooth (Putin still in power, secure & punishing failure left and right)
• Crispy (Putin nominally in power but fighting powerful internal factions)
• Jagged (Putin on his way out/sidelined, internal succession struggles)

So not just Putin but the Russian Army has a lot riding on this, politically. They have a commonality of existential need. This is dangerous, as the Army could be more likely to say DA! to a tactical nuclear strike, or large scale long range decapitation attempt on Zelensky, if things start falling apart and the recapture of DLPR becomes a reality. The army needs a definitive, fast win and will go full-bore on this front, everyone in, officers shoot to kill deserters.

Otherwise a lot of be-braided and be-medaled oversized hat wearing asshats are going to be somehow shooting themselves in the back of their own heads.

===

I think the Russians will close the loop, eventually, through sheer force and brutality (to their own men). I think UKR will bleed them into it but still remain a coherent force, and will then strike back.

Edited April 4, 2022 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

Russia offers to Ukrainian units in Mariupol from 6-00 on 5th of April to lay down a weapon and guarants free pass to UKR-controlled territory. I think, after bloody Ilovayisk "green corridor" our units will reject this offer. Though, resourse of defense in melting day by day. Today Russians issued a video with about 250 UKR soldiers surrendered in Mariupol. Probably they completely exhausted all ammunition and had no choise.

   

Edited April 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

So can we expect more Ukrainian offensive actions in the East and South now, or is the situation there different?

I doubt they'll go on the offense. Russia is about to come to them. 

[sburke]

Germany Expels 40 Russian Diplomats With Suspected Spy-Agency Links (msn.com)

[Battlefront.com]

Ukraine General Staff reported that Russia is stiffing its soldiers of their paychecks.  The same thing was reported in 2014 and 2015:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/711282059207018/permalink/1666375443697670/

 

Steve

[Vacillator]

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Today Russians issued a video with about 250 UKR soldiers surrendered in Mariupol. Probably they completely exhausted all ammunition and had no choise.

Sad news.  Hoping for a reprieve of some sort in Mariupol .

[Kinophile]

They're going to execute those men.

****ing bastards.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Just in case you run across some idiot who tries to tell you UKR have dropped the Bucha corpses after 30th march...

The exposed location and precise positioning of the bodies indicates they were murdered to send a message.  But not newly advancing Ukrainian forces, as I originally thought.  Perhaps Ukrainian drones, maybe other locals.

Steve

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The exposed location and precise positioning of the bodies indicates they were murdered to send a message.  But not newly advancing Ukrainian forces, as I originally thought.  Perhaps Ukrainian drones, maybe other locals.

Steve

I wonder if those were human shields they simply shot and threw out of vehicles once no longer needed, along steve's idea in earlier post

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, danfrodo said:

I wonder if those were human shields they simply shot and threw out of vehicles once no longer needed, along steve's idea in earlier post

I don't think so.  The theory of them being chucked out the back of a truck was the thought that did it in a hurry out while driving out of town.  The reporters on the scene said they were already decomposing, so they have been dead for a while.  Chances are Russians wouldn't have killed them and then relocated them days later.  Now we have the overhead imagery that shows them there for quite some time.  Also, the bodies were positioned so that the road was still derivable, which again hints at deliberate placement.  Lastly, I saw an image of pistol casings next to a body, which I took to be one of the road victims.  This indicates that the Russians marched them into place alive, executed them on the spot, and left them there to send the message.

Steve

[DesertFox]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The exposed location and precise positioning of the bodies indicates they were murdered to send a message.  But not newly advancing Ukrainian forces, as I originally thought.  Perhaps Ukrainian drones, maybe other locals.

Steve

According to the NYT article they first appeared on satelite pictures on 11th march.

Quote

Satellite images provided to The Times by Maxar Technologies show that at least 11 of those had been on the street since March 11, when Russia, by its own account, occupied the town.

Quote

The images show dark objects of similar size to a human body appearing on Yablonska Street between March 9 and March 11. The objects appear in the precise positions in which the bodies were found after Ukrainian forces reclaimed Bucha, as the footage from April 2 shows. Further analysis shows that the objects remained in those position for over three weeks.

Dead Lay Out in Bucha for Weeks, Refuting Russian Claim, Satellite Images Show - The New York Times (nytimes.com)