How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Sequoia]

18 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Let’s hope it stays that way, but it’s still a good idea to be prepared and get measures in place before you actually need it and are forced to do things at the spur of the moment.

I think the Ukrainian Armed forces have shown us they have been well prepared, so I have no reason to suppose they wouldn't be prepared for chemical use. At this point, given how introducing chemicals effects command and control, I would think it would hurt the Russian forces more than Ukraine's.

[TheVulture]

5 minutes ago, Panserjeger said:

I´m sure the improved version will give 100% protection:

I think that's meant to be a roof rack to carry extra luggage due to the truck shortage, rather than any kind of defensive measure.

[DesertFox]

4 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

I think that's meant to be a roof rack to carry extra luggage due to the truck shortage, rather than any kind of defensive measure.

Yep 

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4111/2921/200/car.jpg

 

Edited March 8, 2022 by DesertFox

[womble]

Given the apparently dispersed nature of the UA forces, I'm not sure where a chemical attack would be directed... except against the civilian population, and that's a much more difficult target to protect. Hopefully Putin's just made some mistakes based on bad info and poor assumptions, and isn't just plain cuckoo.

 

[The_Capt]

26 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

well the average citizen has very little interest in the outside world.

The global order as set up in 1945 works on the whole. Yes, you have bad actors, Putin is just the latest one, but the UN and the global community usually finds a way of containing them and eventually dealing with them.

Every new generation thinks they are re-discovering fire for the 1st time.

I finally got around to reading McCullough's biography of Harry S. Truman. He was President in peacetime, but if you look at the crises he had to deal with: Greek civil war, European collapse, Berlin airlift, Communist coups in Eastern Europe, Russia getting the Atomic Bomb, Chinese civil war, China going communist, Korean War, etc. the world was a more dangerous place back then, but we managed to get to today without blowing up the world.

Isn't that kind of fatalistic shrugging what got us here, right now?  By that logic, we could say, "Well ya Russia invaded a sovereign state, happens all the time.  Someone will figure it out over there in Europe...where is Ukraine anyway.  Change the channel, those kids getting blown up is disturbing."

The world is a turbulent and dangerous place and I am not sure apathy about it is the best strategy.  It sure wasn't for global terrorism, and it really hasn't seemed to work in this case either.  At best this is kicking crisis down the road so our kids can deal with them, at worst we find ourselves in a mess and have no idea how we got here because we were to busy fighting over the deck chairs. 

Having read a fair amount of history and previous generations didn't seem to go "meh", not sure we should either.

[Vic4]

@kraze& @Haiduk et al

Could you please elaborate (in an unbiased manner) what drives the ethnic/racial animus between Russia and Ukraine? If I understand correctly, you refer to “ethnic cleansing” as being a prominent motivating factor for the typical Russian soldier, regardless of the overarching geopolitical dynamics between Russia and “the West”. In short, from your perspective, what is the origin of all this hatred and to what end does it serve?

Lastly you speak of the disintegration of Russia as being necessary. What does that look like in terms of re-divided nation states; governments etc.? ...Disclaimer…I don’t want to derail the thread or inflame emotions so if a dry, calculated answer is not possible then please refrain. Thanks

Edited March 8, 2022 by Vic4

[LongLeftFlank]

31 minutes ago, Panserjeger said:

I´m sure the improved version will give 100% protection:

 

Edited March 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[danfrodo]

you all are missing just how good that tank cover actually is.  It is the same defensive technology used for generations by children all over the world.  Just hide your head under the blanket.  Note that ZERO children have died, ever, from monsters under the bed when engaging with this one simple trick. 

[db_zero]

50 minutes ago, Panserjeger said:

I´m sure the improved version will give 100% protection:

Beginning to look like American tankers in WW2 using improvised measures. Iirc Patton would lecture crews against doing this sort of stuff because it put on extra weight the tank and suspension was not designed to handle.

Adding that type of weight must do wonders for the motors that rotate the turret, but hey Russian equipment is the best money can buy and is of the highest quality…right?

In any case looks like something that will prevent a top attack atgm from completely penetrating to the bottom of the tank. It will just penetrate the thin top armor and cook off the ammo stowed around the turret…

im not an engineering/physics genius but I’m guessing these are sandbags being used and filled with sand. I did a search and sand vaporizes and turns to glass at 1700 degrees. This sort or improvised measure may make things worse…perhaps someone with more knowledge can enlighten me.

Edited March 8, 2022 by db_zero

[chris talpas]

I think we are really seeing the real life effectiveness of standoff man portable anti tank weapons like the Javelin and NLAW against modern armor.

I remember being in awe of what squads equipped with Javelins could do when Shock Force first came out -it was almost magical 

Edited March 8, 2022 by chris talpas
spelling

[akd]

28 minutes ago, Vic4 said:

@kraze& @Haiduk et al

Could you please elaborate (in an unbiased manner) what drives the ethnic/racial animus between Russia and Ukraine? If I understand correctly, you refer to “ethnic cleansing” as being a prominent motivating factor for the typical Russian soldier, regardless of the overarching geopolitical dynamics between Russia and “the West”. In short, from your perspective, what is the origin of all this hatred and to what end does it serve?

Lastly you speak of the disintegration of Russia as being necessary. What does that look like in terms of re-divided nation states; governments etc.? ...Disclaimer…I don’t want to derail the thread or inflame emotions so if a dry, calculated answer is not possible then please refrain. Thanks

There are plenty of “Russians” who have no interest in living under Putin and are fighting for the Ukrainian state, so a lot of it is just made-up ethno-nationalism on both sides.

[Panserjeger]

5 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Beginning to look like American tankers in WW2 using improvised measures. Iirc Patton would lecture crews against doing this sort of stuff because it put on extra weight the tank and suspension was not designed to handle.

In any case looks like something that will prevent a top attack atgm from completely penetrating to the bottom of the tank. It will just penetrate the thin top armor and cook off the ammo stowed around the turret…

It also resembles the psychological advantage the Germans had over Allied armour in WW2. The rumours of the top-down attack of the Javelin might explain why so many Russian tanks are seemingly abandoned by their crews. There are several videos of a couple of knocked-out tanks together with other undamaged but abandoned tanks. Along with potentially running of of fuel of course.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

The great cleanup has started already by examening the finances of some small right wing parties, that even now defend Putin. I expect that will just be the beginning though. 

I am hoping that this is something that comes out of this war.  Corruption happens when finances are not transparent and banking regulations are weak.  EU membership for Ukraine has not been held up by any fear of Russia, but by corruption in Ukraine.  The unity Ukrainians have found and the willingness to sacrifice for their nation needs to be harnessed post conflict.  It should become a national effort and a national security concern to resolve this regardless of EU membership or not.  And this goes not only for Ukraine but for all.  Deutsche Bank has a long history of managing Russian funny money that has to stop.  There are states in the US becoming versions of the Cayman Islands.  That has to stop.  London and US real estate as havens for oligarch money - has to stop.  Want to make it difficult for authoritarian leaders - stop the cash flow that enables them or at a minimum make it visible.  This is supposedly the information age.

[danfrodo]

Just now, Panserjeger said:

It also resembles the psychological advantage the Germans had over Allied armour in WW2. The rumours of the top-down attack of the Javelin might explain why so many Russian tanks are seemingly abandoned by their crews. There are several videos of a couple of knocked-out tanks together with other undamaged but abandoned tanks. Along with potentially running of of fuel of course.

ohhhhhh, right.  I've been wondering why so many tanks & bmps have been abandoned instead of driven away.  I figured it was fuel.  But I hadn't considered your idea -- they flee because they believe their in more danger inside the fleeing tanks.  Clever insight. 

[The Steppenwulf]

I read that many Russian troops fear remaining in vehicles to sleep in at night and abandon them to camp out in forested areas instead. Fear created by the threat of Javelins and drones operating with IR capability being able to pick out heat signatures of vehicles. In turn generates falling morale - no faith in equipment. 

Edited March 8, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, Vic4 said:

Could you please elaborate (in an unbiased manner) what drives the ethnic/racial animus between Russia and Ukraine?

This is one thing - so called "Russian great-state chauvinism". Russian ideology (in Russian Empire times, or in modern Russia) rejects any thought that Ukrainians are separate nation with own hystory, language and culture. Any ideas about Ukranian statehood, independent from Russian influence summons in Russia the flow of angry. Russian ideology confess a conception of "Trynity nation of Holy Rus" - Great Russians or "Velikorosy" (Russians), Minor-Russians or "Malorosy" (Ukrainians) and Belorussians (Belarusian). Russians recognized some diffrences between them, but like minor details. For example, Ukrainian languge for them is just "rural southern Russian dialect, junked with Polonisms". So, since 17th century, Moscovian tsars, Russian emperors, Soviet leaders always opressed Ukranians, trying to turn them into Russians or later in some sort of denationalized "Soviet people". They denied Ukrainan language, repressed our cultural figures, we had many wars with Moscovia since 14 century and three in last 100 years, including the current. 

They consider independent, pro-western Ukraine as direct threat to Russia and their "trinity nation ideology". Russia consider itself like a heir of Ancient Rus' (but Rus' is not a Russia!), but there is one big problem. Hystorical core of Ancient Rus' is Ukraine - Kyiv, Chernihiv. From Kyiv the Rus' was baptized. Kyiv alredy existed, when on the place of the Moscow there was a swamps. Without Ukraine Russian conception is flawed. 

From there are weird theories, that "Ukraine ideology was invented by Austo-Hugarians (like variant by Poles) to destroy unite Russian nation". Putin tells almost the same - as if the West created modern Ukraine like "anti-Russia project"

 

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, The Steppenwulf said:

I read that many Russian troops fear remaining in vehicles to sleep in at night and abandon them to camp out in forested areas instead. Fear created by the threat of Javelins and drones operating with IR capability being able to pick out heat signatures of vehicles. In turn generates falling morale - no faith in equipment. 

Well that choice might get a bit harder to make.  Sleep outside in the bitter cold or in a vehicle with the engine running....

Ukraine Cold Snap Set To Freeze Russian Convoy, Could See Soldiers Quit (msn.com)

[Ts4EVER]

But wouldn't you at least leave a few guys who pulled the short straws stay by the vehicles as sentries?

[The Steppenwulf]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

Well that choice might get a bit harder to make.  Sleep outside in the bitter cold or in a vehicle with the engine running....

Ukraine Cold Snap Set To Freeze Russian Convoy, Could See Soldiers Quit (msn.com)

Indeed -15 degrees temperatures I believe. It's all morale sapping stuff. 

When the Russians opened their offensive, first thing I thought was 'too early for the time of year in this region'. Cold temperature and mud drenched quagmires only add to the defenders combat factor.

Edited March 8, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[Panserjeger]

Nothing wrong with Ukrainian morale though

 

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I vote for giving them to the Duchy of Grand Fenwick.  Would complement their Q Bomb quite nicely.

Steve

“Squeak,” err “ROAR!”

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Not if you fly them from Polish airfields, quietly.  This will no doubt get Russia all hot and bothered but 1) Article 5 and 2) Russians have been basing in Belarus so the seal is broken.

As to their utility, well that depends on Russian air control, which has universally been...uneven.  If the Russians cannot establish air superiority then those MiGs start making a lot more sense.

Failing that you base them as far west as you can and use a lot of hasty runways and the like, tricky but doable with enough support and that is assuming Russian ISR can even figure out what airfield to hit, it has not been very good either as far as we can tell.

If I’m not mistaken, all Soviet aircraft were designed as “rough field” capable, even the Ukraine AN-225, the largest airplane in the world, that the Russians have destroyed in it’s hanger outside Kyiv.

[Rinaldi]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Isn't that kind of fatalistic shrugging what got us here, right now? 

 

What's more entertaining about his post is that he doesn't seem to give much thought to the efforts that went into establishing that post-45 global order. Such as deposing insatiable dictators who use war as a means of domestic politics...

We didn't just zap into general world peace and order. 

[Boche]

1 hour ago, The Steppenwulf said:

I read that many Russian troops fear remaining in vehicles to sleep in at night and abandon them to camp out in forested areas instead. Fear created by the threat of Javelins and drones operating with IR capability being able to pick out heat signatures of vehicles. In turn generates falling morale - no faith in equipment. 

I Was talking about this with my squad today. We where saying that if we where in country right now there is no way we would be sleeping in or near the vehicles, but ofcourse this means sleeping in the freezing temperature. Its already miserable doing that during training I cant imagine in an actual war setting. Redundant statement but it cant be fun right now over there. Moral must be atrocious.

Edited March 8, 2022 by Boche

[danfrodo]

So McDonalds shutting down its Russia operations.  Doesn't seem like anything interesting except that is supposedly 62,000 workers!   That's quite a lot of suddenly unemployed folks.  It's hard to see how angry populace could overthrow Putin, but every angry russian brings that unlikely goal a little closer