Vic4

Another interesting article haven't seen posted here yet. US weapons exports up 50 percent in 2023 as Washington challenges Russia, China "The Russian defense industry is failing and continues to fail," said a top State Department official. Read in POLITICO: https://apple.news/AcumTh4SiRpmY0NrPqH7meA

Surprised not to see much conversation about this as it's been circulating for the past few days. Any thoughts on how the replacement of Zaluzhny may affect the the course of the war? https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/31/europe/zaluzhny-oust-ukraine-army-zelensky-intl/index.html

Haven’t seen this article posted here yet.. While the spectre of a RF disintegration per the Capt’s description is possibly the worst case scenario. In contrast; it’s hard to see how the Orwellian loom ever stops spinning with this ideology being perpetually indoctrinated into every Russian generation. With kids in grade school, reading this makes the blood run cold. TLDR: Nazi/Fascist youth are contemporary… https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/24/europe/russia-schools-pro-war-parade-grounds-intl/index.html

The sty thickens.. (Ukr) Intelligence chief: Russia's FSB is assigned to kill Prigozhin. https://kyivindependent.com/intelligence-chief-russias-fsb-assigned-to-kill-prigozhin/

Looks like Prig is in his new pen... Mercenary chief Prigozhin starts exile in Belarus as Putin praises Russian troops Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin arrived in Belarus on Tuesday under a deal that ended a brief mutiny by his fighters, as President Vladimir Putin praised his armed forces for averting a civil war. Read in Reuters:https://apple.news/Asio7wRJlQjamolDbuPPkTw

Speaking of money, mafia state players and Putin's current instability: Any thoughts on some entity/faction within Russia casting a keen eye on Putin's personal fortune? Rumored to be in the $3-400 billion range I believe. Do you think they're going to let him keep it, er.. along with his head?

I can see the personal terrorist army part making sense; but the more Russia loses, the less of a leash Putin will have on his dogs when he really needs them... Although tbf, the bolded statements above seem somewhat contradictory. (i.e. they could have had a greater impact than the poorly trained and equipped mobiks.) Anyways, just a sideshow it would seem.

How is it that the Chechens have managed to avoid any significant deployment/action throughout the war? Why wouldn’t Putin/MOD be using them as fodder similar to Wagner as opposed to say VDV/Spetsnaz who have taken tremendous losses and are “ethnic”/core Russians and presumably much more loyal than the Chechens? I assume Putin/Russia needs Chechnya to absolutely remain in the Russian fold during the conflict, but it seems Putin does not have any leverage to force them to commit significantly. Also concurrently, it would seem logical that the more Russia loses its core forces, Kadyrov’s options and strength only grow exponentially. Ironically the TikTok bearded clowns seem to be coming out on top of all combatants. What am I missing?

Absolutely surreal.. and about time some rotted internal dominos fall - hard

At its’ core, the design appears based in compliment. Nothing wrong with a united front..!

Perhaps a RU nationalist faction with the aim of giving the Kremlin carte blanche to justify a full blown assassination campaign against Zelensky? Do we know whether or not there have been persistent attempts to that effect throughout the war? The RU response to this incident seems to indicate that such a campaign is being cranked to 11 if it hasn't been already.

Ukraine war: Partisan attack kills police chief in Russian-occupied Melitopol https://apple.news/APFvHewYuQ4yUBT2ujC0Rpw Don’t think his has been posted yet. Good to see some partisan activity/support in one of the main strategic sectors.

China's Xi calls Ukraine's Zelensky https://apple.news/Aq63eoRPhTsqmIHpQ-sW-UA Would the West and the US in particular ever openly support the optics of a Chinese brokered “peace” negotiation?

Never has a cancelled agent been welcomed home with such open arms. Tucker Carlson is out at Fox News but welcome on Russian TV https://apple.news/AmuE4mC7HSbCubQOjGWYy7A

Haven’t seen this posted here yet. Looks like they’re trying to round up the “refuseniks”. https://apple.news/AdmOuzEn1R7aq1VWT3JuAqA

I get that US partisan politics is generally frowned upon here but unfortunately the sad truth is that it is the bull in the china shop, elephant in the room, (insert tired cliche here); in regards to the war and the literal future of Ukraine. As such the magnitude and weight that hinges upon the ’24 election in regards to Ukraine is crushingly pivotal. A second Trump presidency serves as the greatest threat to the viability of Ukraine being able to maintain its military advantage, receiving reparations, or prosecuting war crimes just to name a few of the most strident issues. As has been stated by more than a few of the forum’s European members, NATO is primarily based on US hegemony. Whether that in itself is good or bad or if US hegemony is good or bad is irrelevant. Thankfully as has been noted here, the current trajectory is stable, even on a partisan level in a majority support for Ukraine. Let’s hope it stays that way. Trump: 2.23.2022 “I went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and I said, ‘This is genius.’ Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine — of Ukraine — Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful,” Trump said in a radio interview with “The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show.” “He used the word ‘independent’ and ‘we’re gonna go out and we’re gonna go in and we’re gonna help keep peace.’ You gotta say that’s pretty savvy.” Politico: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923

A seemingly comprehensive though pessimistic article that is relevant to the current conversation. Interview with a commander at the front... Hopefully these headlines will be eclipsed by a successful counteroffensive. Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow Ukraine’s military has been degraded by a year of heavy casualties. Front-line units are now struggling with new, poorly trained troops and a shortage of ammunition. Read in The Washington Post: https://apple.news/ARmuLouubT82YY5BNmh8GKg

Considering the UAF trajectory vs. Russian brinkmanship, it seems the most critical question is: Will "The West" support an aggressive push/attempt to retake Crimea? Or is that both the literal and proverbial - bridge too far?

The posts of your experience and knowledge are invaluable. Vet of the 82nd, Phd nuclear physicist, kicked cancer to the curb —- you set a high bar few achieve. Much respect $

"Current" liveuamap seems to show it at about 80-100km from the front. Considering the recent gains and momentum, was wondering if this would be at all feasible in the near future. i.e. pre Crimea or Donbas regions. Would presume the symbolic nature of the victory would carry considerable importance regardless of the state of the infrastructure.

@Battlefront.com et al.. How viable is the retaking of Mariupol now? If the UA could pull it off: - politcal coup de gras for Putin? - tremendous symbolic & strategic victory for UKR = utter humiliation for RU and Nat meltdown material - cuts the "land bridge" decisively Thoughts? Appreciated...

Seems like an interesting time for Rheinmetal/Germany to reveal a new tank. Apologies if this has already been posted, been off grid for a few days.. ----------- (Headline) Germany’s Badass New Tank Could Outmatch Every Other Tank in the World The KF51 is named “Panther.” Sound familiar? No Paywall: https://breakingdefense.com/2022/06/rheinmetall-unveils-new-tank-design-kf51-panther/ https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a40277518/new-german-tank-kf51-panther/

@Battlefront.com@The_Capt@Haiduk@kraze et al.. Appreciate any perspective on the following regarding Crimea. 1. Should reacquiring Crimea be a strategic/operational goal at all for Ukraine? 2. If yes, what would you anticipate Russia’s response to be, given the current condition of the RA & political climate? 3. Would a majority of the Crimean population actively support or reject such an endeavor by Ukraine?

Some absolute beauts from ISW today. …In some ways it shows that the pen truly can be akin to the sword; shredding/damning/searing, is their assessment of Russia. ...Some personal favs: The opener: “Russian occupation authorities announced plans to destroy the Azovstal Steel Plant and turn Mariupol into a resort city, depriving Russia of some of the most important economic benefits it hoped to reap by taking the city in the first place.” Mid: “The Kremlin may hope to offset the loss of revenues from Azovstal and other destroyed infrastructure in Ukraine by profiting from the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant that is forces have seized... Khusnullin added that the Zaporihia Nuclear Power Plant will exclusively work for Russia and will sell electricity to Ukraine." Finale: “This statement is a clear Russian recognition that there will be an independent Ukraine at the end of this war…” The rest: "This announcement epitomizes the kind of Pyrrhic victories Russian forces have won in Ukraine, to the extent that they have won victories at all." Love this thread - Glory to Ukraine$

@The_Capt No doubt that this is a sobering and disheartening assessment, but perhaps there is a potential upshot. When this conflict presumably concludes with Russia entirely in thrall to China and isolated from the West, wouldn’t a likely result be that their immediate malignant intent will be diverted to China? Given that Russia seems to be primarily motivated by (a) delusions of grandeur and (b) envy/resentment, it seems that most of their energy at that point would be directed towards who they view as their immediate oppressor (China) and to the extent that their designs against the West will fall into a tertiary status. This could be advantageous to the West as China will constantly be having to look over it’s shoulder and keep Russia in line, while Russia’s immediate goal will be to throw off the Chinese yoke. Thoughts on this? Appreciate your insight.