How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Cpl Steiner]

Just wondering about all these new EU actions like sending AT weapons to Ukraine. Isn't that, in Putin's eyes, an escalation? If so, what can he do to retaliate?

Edited February 27, 2022 by Cpl Steiner

[DesertFox]

Awesome, if true.

 

 

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, Cpl Steiner said:

Just wondering about all these new EU actions like sending AT weapons to Ukraine. Isn't that, in Putin's eyes, an escalation? If so, what can he do to retaliate?

Prepare for the worst. Threats, cyber attacks, sabotage, murder, fake news etc. The usual, so to speak.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Haiduk]

Ukranian farmer have stolen Russian Strela-10  

 

 

[ASL Veteran]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Ukranian farmer have stolen Russian Strela-10  

 

 

You can use that for plowing fields I'm sure

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Ukranian farmer have stolen Russian Strela-10  

 

 

That is literally the craziest thing I have seen yet.

[Haiduk]

Abandoned Russian Tunguska near Kharkiv

[Bulletpoint]

21 minutes ago, Kraft said:

According to Maxar Satelite images a large 5km long russian convoy is on route to Kyiv, about 40km away

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-convoy-ground-forces-fuel-tanks-moving-toward-kyiv-maxar-2022-02-27/

Packed tight like sardines. Imagine a strafing run along that road. I'm starting to feel sorry for the Russian soldiers.

[benpark]

12 minutes ago, Cpl Steiner said:

Isn't that, in Putin's eyes, an escalation? If so, what can he do to retaliate?

This has shifted more into the territory of "Stop worrying about what your enemy is going to do to you, and start thinking about what you are going to do to them".

Edited February 27, 2022 by benpark

[borg]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Ukranian farmer have stolen Russian Strela-10  

 

 

LOOOOOOL

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is literally the craziest thing I have seen yet.

Could be photoshop though. Not too hard to paint on a Z.

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Abandoned Russian Tunguska near Kharkiv

I like that

[BornGinger]

2 hours ago, Lethaface said:

I guess all weapons enroute to Ukraine can be flown directly to Rzeszow (PL), which is not even 200km from Lviv. 

That could be the subject for a homemade scenario for this game by one of you fellows that owns it. Russian troops try to stop the delivery of weapons and other equipment from Rzeszow to Lviv and the Ukrainians need to keep the route open.

C'mon now, folks, you can do it.

[Haiduk]

Russia is ready to strke any transport, which will deliver western weapon to Ukraine - Andrey Llimov, the chief of state sovereighnity protection commitee of Federation Council

So, they going to hunt for each truck, moving from the west? 

Edited February 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[womble]

Has Russia actually executed the diplomatic forms of war declaration on the Ukraine? Even as an afterthought? I mean, I know you don't go warning your opponent you're about to roflstomp them, these days, with the element of surprise being so materially important, but I'd think some formal declaration would be in order, say somewhere between an hour and 12 after "first violation".

Or is it important to Putin to be able to perform the diplomatic gymnastics of "We never actually went to war, per se. It was just a punitive raid."?

[womble]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russia is ready to strke any transport, which will deliver western weapon to Ukraine - Andrey Llimov, the chief of state sovereighnity protection commitee of Federation Council

So, they going to hunt for each truck, moving from the west? 

Or are they going to use their air defense assets to shoot over the border at planes dropping off AT on NATO soil? Do their systems have the reach?

[DesertFox]

27 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Awesome, if true.

 

 

Sounds legit.

EU Member Countries Will Supply Ukraine With Jet Fighters, Borrell Says (wsj.com)

BRUSSELS—European Union member countries will supply Ukraine with jet fighters, EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell said Sunday.

Mr. Borrell said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has asked for jet fighters that his country’s air force can operate. Those planes would be Soviet-built models, mainly MiG and Sukhoi jets.

Some current EU members that were once part of the USSR-led Warsaw Pact still fly such planes or have old ones parked.

[Battlefront.com]

46 minutes ago, womble said:

Which brings me to something else I've thought about earlier: how are the Russians losing the propaganda/information war so badly? I would've expected far more visibility of Russian footage of destroyed/captured UKR equipment and personnel. Or maybe it's just they don't have any such pictures because it really is going terribly badly for them.

Funny, at lunch just now my wife asked me the same question.  Here's what I said.

Propaganda and disinformation is most effective when there is an audience that is inherently receptive to whatever the messaging is.  In 2014/2015 Russian disinformation and propaganda was more effective than it appears to be today because the situation there was very confusing.  Even for people who were savvy enough to understand the conflict in general terms.  For the average person it was way outside their normal understanding, therefore outside of their normal ability to filter information into good and bad piles.

This war is different entirely.  It is clear to just about everybody that Russia had no grounds to start the war in the first place.  It is also clear to just about everybody that Russia is having a tough time of it, even if they don't understand how tough of anything about military operations at all.

And finally, a lot of people have caught onto Russia's disinformation and propaganda tricks.  Most of what they do is ham fisted to start with, so once you understand some basics it's pretty easy to dismiss the majority of distorted messaging.  Belated efforts by tech companies to restrict, marginalize, or even ban Russian propaganda and disinformation channels is very far from perfect, but in 2014 it was almost non-existent.

Combine this all together and...

Clear cut situation that is fairly easily understood to be unfavorable to Russia and a diminished ability for Russia to trick people into thinking otherwise creates a situation where disinformation and propaganda is more difficult to create and disseminate.

Even when something slips through the filters, there's a lot of people who are able to spot it and take actions to counter it.

Steve

[akd]

2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Sounds legit.

EU Member Countries Will Supply Ukraine With Jet Fighters, Borrell Says (wsj.com)

BRUSSELS—European Union member countries will supply Ukraine with jet fighters, EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell said Sunday.

Mr. Borrell said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has asked for jet fighters that his country’s air force can operate. Those planes would be Soviet-built models, mainly MiG and Sukhoi jets.

Some current EU members that were once part of the USSR-led Warsaw Pact still fly such planes or have old ones parked.

This sounds like a multi-month, if not multi-year project, but nice gesture.

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

There is a big difference between peacetime bravado and wartime reality.  It is easy to say "I'm tough" when nobody is shooting at you.  However, I agree that it is likely they were "coached" to say certain things if captured.  Though issuing such instructions doesn't help build morale

We had a discussion about this in a different thread.  It is not uncommon for military personnel to not be told where they are going until they get there.  Russian OPSEC at the lowest level is horrible, so it makes sense to not tell them anything more than they need to know.

My guess is most Russian soldiers, especially conscripts, thought everything before now was just to scare the Ukrainians and NATO.  I don't think many thought this would really happen, so I do believe that a lot of them were surprised.

However, at this point all Russian forces know there is a war going on.  While they might not know what they are supposed to do in Ukraine, none of them should be surprised they are there.

Steve

Keeping warfighters (the Nuevo term for actual battle personnel) in the dark, and knowledge restricted to the immediate operation, is standard practice among ALL militaries in the world. What one doesn’t know about operational plans cannot be divulged if one is taken.

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://www.axios.com/eu-weapons-ukraine-russia-invasion-331bfcbc-5193-47b0-8afb-03f194d95619.html

"The latest: The EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said at press conference that member states will provide fighter jets at the request of the Ukrainian government, not just ammunition. He did not immediately provide more details."

multiple sources on this.

Edited February 27, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[Homo_Ferricus]

This IL-76 shot down stuff sounds bogus--no way IL-76 full of paratroopers went down over Ukraine or even Russia without people noticing, even in a sparsely populated area. You don't think someone would see the fireball? Hear the sound? have some photo/video to share of the vast amount of debris that would be littered about the next morning? MH17 was hit at 30k' altitude, there was video footage, recognizable debris all over the place, remains.... etc. Not to mention that we haven't heard or seen anything solid regarding VDV on the ground near Vasylkiv.

[cyrano01]

1 minute ago, Vet 0369 said:

Keeping warfighters (the Nuevo term for actual battle personnel) in the dark, and knowledge restricted to the immediate operation, is standard practice among ALL militaries in the world. What one doesn’t know about operational plans cannot be divulged if one is taken.

Not especially Auftragstaktik though, not that such a thing was ever big in the Russian military.

[BeondTheGrave]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Funny, at lunch just now my wife asked me the same question.  Here's what I said.

Propaganda and disinformation is most effective when there is an audience that is inherently receptive to whatever the messaging is.  In 2014/2015 Russian disinformation and propaganda was more effective than it appears to be today because the situation there was very confusing.  Even for people who were savvy enough to understand the conflict in general terms.  For the average person it was way outside their normal understanding, therefore outside of their normal ability to filter information into good and bad piles.

This war is different entirely.  It is clear to just about everybody that Russia had no grounds to start the war in the first place.  It is also clear to just about everybody that Russia is having a tough time of it, even if they don't understand how tough of anything about military operations at all.

And finally, a lot of people have caught onto Russia's disinformation and propaganda tricks.  Most of what they do is ham fisted to start with, so once you understand some basics it's pretty easy to dismiss the majority of distorted messaging.  Belated efforts by tech companies to restrict, marginalize, or even ban Russian propaganda and disinformation channels is very far from perfect, but in 2014 it was almost non-existent.

Combine this all together and...

Clear cut situation that is fairly easily understood to be unfavorable to Russia and a diminished ability for Russia to trick people into thinking otherwise creates a situation where disinformation and propaganda is more difficult to create and disseminate.

Even when something slips through the filters, there's a lot of people who are able to spot it and take actions to counter it.

Steve

One of the successes of Russian propaganda in 2014-2016 was it was so constant, so monomessage. Dont trust authority, the things youre seeing arn't true, the good guys are really bad, embrace the demons living darkly in your soul. There were a thousand and one flours of that rhetoric, but all from the same meadow. IMO it succeeded for three reasons 1) by the time you stomp out one flower, two more have sprouted 2) it swamped out more traditional messages and buried it in a sea of disinfo, and 3) it tapped into genuine problems, things that were genuinely wrong in western society. Things that people actually thought and felt. 

With Ukraine its the exact opposite. The US's intel on Russia's plans dominated the news for weeks before the invasion. It was impossible to really deny because photos of a buildup are hard to challenge. And Russia lacked a clear justification for war. Look back at the trolls here, is it missile defense? NATO expansion? Nazism and genocide? And do any of those really speak to popular feelings about the region? No, I'd say. Putin ran into the same trouble that his opponents had previously. And once the war started it was too late. Twitter, Instagram, and Reddit were swamped with pro Ukraine posts. A deluge. It sucked the air out of the room and Putin's propaganda had no chance to take a breath. Now, I do think a lot of that was organic. A groundswell of popular support. But I also suspect a lot of the more anonymous accounts are run either by Ukrainians or western actors. 

Which is to say that I think youre right. The west learned Putin's playbook the hard way and I think now they're using it against him in a very subtle and smart way. 

[Homo_Ferricus]

Guess I'm throwing in my 2 cents on the political side--as a Russian that came to the US as a little boy, I've got some visibility into the culture. The US/NATO played a role in stoking this by spreading NATO post-cold war TOWARDS Russia's borders. NATO does not appreciate that Russia considers this an existential threat, as we can see by their actions... I'm against wars of aggression, of course, easily. I'm rooting for Ukraine, and wishing the violence and death would end. That said I think NATO has a part to play in de-escalating and naming Ukraine as a neutral country. To keep upping the ante with announcing more lethal aid can get reckless. This is a rather dangerous game of chicken.