How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kraft]

5 minutes ago, z1812 said:

An interesting article.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukrainian-forces-destroy-convoy-of-56-chechen-tanks-kill-general-near-kyiv-report/

I think he is still alive, I find the claim of 56 tanks destroyed dubious at best unless they count trucks as well, even then it sounds like a stretch. No released footage as well.

Also there seem to be posts with him posing in Ukr but I havent checked the timeframes.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Kraft

[Haiduk]

38 minutes ago, George MC said:

Convoy spacing?

This is formally Rosgvardia unit, but reallly Kadyrov's army. Here these guys today somewhere in the north of Kyiv oblast

 

 

 

 

[BeondTheGrave]

Thus begins the 'dramatic policy changes' of the Russian central bank. 

 

A tight monetary control. May stop the reactor unit from reaching boil at 9am (or whenever the ForEX market in Moscow opens) but it will ravage the rest of the market. In effect Russia has just taken another sledge to the value of the Ruble and Russian investments with this move, made it even more unattractive to trade. But what else can they do? This is a crisis most central banks are unprepared to confront, and most markets are too emotional to tolerate. 

Edited February 27, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[BFCElvis]

1 hour ago, Mft004 said:

.....but am coming across post after post now which appear more akin to the work of propaganda departments and I thought I'd left that bunch of monkeys with the mainstream media outlets. So, just to help out the armchair generals who maybe drank a bit too much Dutch courage today,

  

On 2/24/2022 at 12:18 PM, BFCElvis said:

Correct. Frankly, I think this is an important thread. So, I am loath to lock it. If people start going down that road I will just give them short vacations from posting, without prior warning, rather than lock it. 

Welcome Mark!

Because you only became a member yesterday I am going to give you the benefit of the doubt that you hadn't seen my previous posts about this thread. I have deleted the parts of your post that are perfectly acceptable and only left the bits that might make the thread go off course.

We won't have personal attacks on posters, either individually or as a group. 

[Seedorf81]

36 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

"Justifies"?  Nobody needs to justify making a post here.  It would be nice if your first post wasn't so factually flawed, dismissive, and full of hubris, but you don't have to justify posting it.

Steve

This is one of the best things of the Battlefront Forum: you can post whatever you want. Unless you cross every border of decency and/or common sense, you are TOTALLY FREE to express your opinions.

Read that, Mr Putin!

[womble]

1 hour ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

NATO does not appreciate that Russia considers this an existential threat...

Nope, they don't. You're right. That's because, from a NATO point of view, it's paranoid fantasy.

As far as NATO is concerned, it's a defensive alliance. It was set up to defend against an apparently belligerent Communist state (run by a paranoid psycho). Now that the USSR is gone, and its successor state, Russia isn't espousing a form of government which has at the base of its ideology, the downfall of Western Capitalism, there's even less  chance that NATO would feel that offensive action into Russia was necessary.

But some of the other USSR successor states saw Russia's imperialist "reconquest" agendas and felt they needed the protection of the NATO umbrella, so they joined up with their newly-accessible trading partners in the mutual defense pact. And it looks like they may well have been wise to do so, since they've been spared Ukraine's fate.

NATO is only an existential threat to Russia if Russia seeks to overturn the international order and attack NATO members.

But someone in Russia is feeding the beast that thinks everyone else is out to bring the Russian people and nation down. Driving the irrational fear that NATO has even the vaguest desire to get rid of Russia just because it's Russia. When the USSR disbanded, the West was happy for Russians (and other nationalities previously ruled by the Politburo) because it was the Soviet Union that was the enemy of both the West, and its own people, and now they were free.

Can you explain why "Russia" thinks NATO is an existential threat? I can grok why Putin and his nasty little cabal might, since they have all manner of unsavoury (to the international community) ambitions. But beyond "Being taken in by Putin's paranoia", I honestly don't understand why Russia in general would feel they have anything to fear from NATO.

[Seedorf81]

When playing the Black Sea scenario's as US, I always relied on the Javelins to kill Russian armour.

Has anyone any info on the effectiveness of Javelins in this war??

 

 

 

[danfrodo]

I hate to spoil the mood...... but I am actually starting to get kinda nervous about Ukraine's chances of holding on.  THere's a lot of russian assets not yet in the game.  And if Belarus comes down from the north that could really hurt. 

If I'm the russians I really want to cut the supply pipeline from the west.  Maybe the Belarus drive will try to do that before turning east.  Hopefully there's lots of ATGM ambush points already manned to degrade and delay any thrusts from Belarus.

[Haiduk]

Reportedly 11 large landing ships on route to Odesa. Maybe the landing will be on Zatoka beaches to the west or in Kobleve area to the east - in other parts of the coast there are high clay cliffs on the shore and too narrow beaches - not suitable places for massive landing   

[Mft004]

3 minutes ago, BFCElvis said:

  

Welcome Mark!

Because you only became a member yesterday I am going to give you the benefit of the doubt that you hadn't seen my previous posts about this thread. I have deleted the parts of your post that are perfectly acceptable and only left the bits that might make the thread go off course.

We won't have personal attacks on posters, either individually or as a group. 

Hi Elvis,

have checked the first post and it still conveys the key message - of not being blind to reality - which is great.

Kind regards,

Mark

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

I hate to spoil the mood...... but I am actually starting to get kinda nervous about Ukraine's chances of holding on.  THere's a lot of russian assets not yet in the game.  And if Belarus comes down from the north that could really hurt. 

Why would we assume the Belarus forces would do any better than the Russians?

I'm personally not that worried about Ukraine holding on, but I must say I'm worried about what Putin might do in a rage if he doesn't get what he wants. Until recently, I thought he was a dictator but a predictable one.

[BeondTheGrave]

Since were getting a lot of official Battlefront accounts posting in this thread, can we get an official comment: Will economic warfare be included in the next module? Will I be able to wage a ForEx war with my pixelaccountants? Steve? Elvis? 

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I hate to spoil the mood...... but I am actually starting to get kinda nervous about Ukraine's chances of holding on.  THere's a lot of russian assets not yet in the game.  And if Belarus comes down from the north that could really hurt. 

Youre right to be nervous. Weve reached 'kitchen sink' territory. It all could be over by the time we wake up tomorrow. 

[womble]

5 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I hate to spoil the mood...... but I am actually starting to get kinda nervous about Ukraine's chances of holding on.  THere's a lot of russian assets not yet in the game.  And if Belarus comes down from the north that could really hurt. 

If I'm the russians I really want to cut the supply pipeline from the west.  Maybe the Belarus drive will try to do that before turning east.  Hopefully there's lots of ATGM ambush points already manned to degrade and delay any thrusts from Belarus.

I have to wonder how effective the Belarus formations will be. They don't have the level of institutional experience that the Russian Army has acquired over recent years and Belarus is even more corrupt than Russia, so its readiness state might well leave something to be desired. Lukashenko is a worse bandit even than Putin, but maybe he's not been in power long enough to completely decapitate his own military command.

[TheVulture]

9 minutes ago, BFCElvis said:

 I have deleted the parts of your post that are perfectly acceptable and only left the bits that might make the thread go off course.

That seems like a provocative course of action. Or a mis-type :)

 

[danfrodo]

Just now, Bulletpoint said:

Why would we assume the Belarus forces would do any better than the Russians?

I'm personally not that worried about Ukraine holding on, but I must say I'm worried about what Putin might do in a rage if he doesn't get what he wants. Until recently, I thought he was a dictator but a predictable one.

I agree with you on thinking the belarus forces might be same or worse than russian forces.  My worry is what is available to oppose them?  And what if they take unexpected routes?  There's a lot of very powerful weaponry on the way, but it has to get to the fighters and that is a long way from Poland to Kyiv.

And yeah, Putin worries me most also.  But hopefully powerful Russians have pictures of their grandkids as their phone screen background. 

[Mft004]

1 minute ago, TheVulture said:

That seems like a provocative course of action. Or a mis-type :)

 

Ya was tempted to mention that : ) Would surely end at Page 57 that way.

[akd]

42 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Read that last bit above the fold. I wish we could get the full thing. 

A new world is being born before our eyes. Russia's military operation in Ukraine has ushered in a new era - and in three dimensions at once. And of course, in the fourth, internal Russian. Here begins a new period both in ideology and in the very model of our socio-economic system - but this is worth talking about separately a little later. Russia is restoring its unity - the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe in our history, its unnatural dislocation, has been overcome. Yes, at a great cost, yes, through the tragic events of a virtual civil war, because now brothers, separated by belonging to the Russian and Ukrainian armies, are still shooting at each other, but there will be no more Ukraine as anti-Russia. Russia is restoring its historical fullness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together - in its entirety of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians. If we had abandoned this, if we had allowed the temporary division to take hold for centuries, then we would not only betray the memory of our ancestors, but would also be cursed by our descendants for allowing the disintegration of the Russian land. 

 Nationalists in Ukraine are fighting on the recommendation of foreigners, Putin said. Vladimir Putin has assumed, without a drop of exaggeration, a historic responsibility by deciding not to leave the solution of the Ukrainian question to future generations. After all, the need to solve it would always remain the main problem for Russia - for two key reasons. And the issue of national security, that is, the creation of anti-Russia from Ukraine and an outpost for the West to put pressure on us, is only the second most important among them. The first would always be the complex of a divided people, the complex of national humiliation - when the Russian house first lost part of its foundation (Kiev), and then was forced to come to terms with the existence of two states, not one, but two peoples. That is, either to abandon their history, agreeing with the insane versions that "only Ukraine is the real Russia," or to gnash one's teeth helplessly, remembering the times when "we lost Ukraine." Returning Ukraine, that is, turning it back to Russia, would be more and more difficult with every decade - recoding, de-Russification of Russians and inciting Ukrainian Little Russians against Russians would gain momentum. And in the event of the consolidation of the full geopolitical and military control of the West over Ukraine, its return to Russia would become completely impossible - it would have to fight for it with the Atlantic bloc. 

Now this problem is gone - Ukraine has returned to Russia. This does not mean that its statehood will be liquidated, but it will be reorganized, re-established and returned to its natural state of part of the Russian world. Within what boundaries, in what form will the alliance with Russia be consolidated (through the CSTO and the Eurasian Union or the Union State of Russia and Belarus)? This will be decided after the end is put in the history of Ukraine as anti-Russia. In any case, the period of the split of the Russian people is coming to an end. And here begins the second dimension of the coming new era - it concerns Russia's relations with the West. Not even Russia, but the Russian world, that is, three states, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, acting in geopolitical terms as a single whole. These relations have entered a new stage - the West sees the return of Russia to its historical borders in Europe. And he is loudly indignant at this, although in the depths of his soul he must admit to himself that it could not be otherwise. 

Russia formed a delegation for negotiations with Ukraine Did someone in the old European capitals, in Paris and Berlin, seriously believe that Moscow would give up Kyiv? That the Russians will forever be a divided people? And at the same time when Europe is uniting, when the German and French elites are trying to seize control of European integration from the Anglo-Saxons and assemble a united Europe? Forgetting that the unification of Europe became possible only thanks to the unification of Germany, which took place according to the good Russian (albeit not very smart) will. To swipe after that also on Russian lands is not even the height of ingratitude, but of geopolitical stupidity. The West as a whole, and even more so Europe in particular, did not have the strength to keep Ukraine in its sphere of influence, and even more so to take Ukraine for itself. In order not to understand this, one had to be just geopolitical fools. More precisely, there was only one option: to bet on the further collapse of Russia, that is, the Russian Federation. But the fact that it did not work should have been clear twenty years ago. And already fifteen years ago, after Putin's Munich speech, even the deaf could hear - Russia is returning. 

 Russia brought to Ukraine an agreement to organize negotiations, said Peskov Now the West is trying to punish Russia for the fact that it returned, for not justifying its plans to profit at its expense, for not allowing the expansion of the western space to the east. Seeking to punish us, the West thinks that relations with it are of vital importance to us. But this has not been the case for a long time - the world has changed, and this is well understood not only by Europeans, but also by the Anglo-Saxons who rule the West. No amount of Western pressure on Russia will lead to anything. There will be losses from the sublimation of confrontation on both sides, but Russia is ready for them morally and geopolitically. But for the West itself, an increase in the degree of confrontation incurs huge costs - and the main ones are not at all economic. Europe, as part of the West, wanted autonomy - the German project of European integration does not make strategic sense while maintaining the Anglo-Saxon ideological, military and geopolitical control over the Old World. Yes, and it cannot be successful, because the Anglo-Saxons need a controlled Europe. But Europe needs autonomy for another reason as well — in case the States go into self-isolation (as a result of growing internal conflicts and contradictions) or focus on the Pacific region, where the geopolitical center of gravity is moving.

Russia's rights in the Council of Europe suspended But the confrontation with Russia, into which the Anglo-Saxons are dragging Europe, deprives the Europeans of even the chances of independence - not to mention the fact that in the same way Europe is trying to impose a break with China. If now the Atlanticists are happy that the "Russian threat" will unite the Western bloc, then in Berlin and Paris they cannot fail to understand that, having lost hope for autonomy, the European project will simply collapse in the medium term. That is why independent-minded Europeans are now completely uninterested in building a new iron curtain on their eastern borders - realizing that it will turn into a corral for Europe. Whose century (more precisely, half a millennium) of global leadership is over in any case - but various options for its future are still possible. Because the construction of a new world order - and this is the third dimension of current events - is accelerating, and its contours are more and more clearly visible through the spreading cover of Anglo-Saxon globalization. A multipolar world has finally become a reality - the operation in Ukraine is not capable of rallying anyone but the West against Russia. Because the rest of the world sees and understands perfectly well - this is a conflict between Russia and the West, this is a response to the geopolitical expansion of the Atlanticists, this is Russia's return of its historical space and its place in the world.

No one in Europe wants to fight Russia,  China and India, Latin America and Africa, the Islamic world and Southeast Asia - no one believes that the West leads the world order, much less sets the rules of the game. Russia has not only challenged the West, it has shown that the era of Western global domination can be considered completely and finally over. The new world will be built by all civilizations and centers of power, naturally, together with the West (united or not) - but not on its terms and not according to its rules.

[BFCElvis]

2 minutes ago, Mft004 said:

Hi Elvis,

have checked the first post and it still conveys the key message - of not being blind to reality - which is great.

Kind regards,

Mark

Did you read what I wrote? The only part that I left of your post is the only part that is a no-no in this thread. It's the kind of stuff that can start flame wars and this thread is a tinderbox as it is.

We are keeping this thread on a very short leash when it comes to that kind of stuff. You could have said what you wanted to say without insulting people. That is my point. And that is what is required here.

The people who have been given vacations from posting here did not receive anything like this from me. I am giving you the benefit of the doubt that you may not have seen the previous warnings because you're brand new. As long as you're not being insulting to people I don't care what your opinion is on what's being discussed. Feel free. Have at it.

[John Kettler]

7 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Double post. Sorry. Saw too late Haiduk already postet it above. 

If this is true, then Mr. Putin is finished.

 

 

 

If this is true, then Russia had best pray China doesn't drop by while it's busy in Ukraine!

Regards,

John Kettler

[Bulletpoint]

Already as it is, the Russian soldiers have very little reason to want to go to Ukraine and fight.

Maybe a couple of them have bought into Putin's crazy nazi stories, or maybe be willing to die in order to "reunite ancestral Russian lands", but it can't be that many. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are literally fighting for their homes, futures, and families, and it shows.

Enter Belarus... those soldiers will have even less of a personal reason to fight.

[BFCElvis]

6 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

That seems like a provocative course of action. Or a mis-type :)

 

No, probably not written well.......I didn't delete any of his post. It's all still there. I was referring to the part of his post that I deleted in my quote of his post. Sorry for any confusion.  

[danfrodo]

OK, now THAT would be really really funny!  China makes move into Siberia to capture oil while Putin busy in idiot campaign for Ukraine.  And China launches their attack...... wait for it....... right at beginning of the spring thaw!

[Mft004]

1 minute ago, BFCElvis said:

Did you read what I wrote? The only part that I left of your post is the only part that is a no-no in this thread. It's the kind of stuff that can start flame wars and this thread is a tinderbox as it is.

We are keeping this thread on a very short leash when it comes to that kind of stuff. You could have said what you wanted to say without insulting people. That is my point. And that is what is required here.

The people who have been given vacations from posting here did not receive anything like this from me. I am giving you the benefit of the doubt that you may not have seen the previous warnings because you're brand new. As long as you're not being insulting to people I don't care what your opinion is on what's being discussed. Feel free. Have at it.

Yes I read what you wrote. Yes I'm aware of the vacations. And the first post is illustrating a 2-sided coin rather than going after one poster or another. If there's a line or two omitted to prevent the latter risk, that is not a problem.

Kind regards,

Mark

[TheVulture]

9 minutes ago, womble said:

Can you explain why "Russia" thinks NATO is an existential threat? I can grok why Putin and his nasty little cabal might, since they have all manner of unsavoury (to the international community) ambitions. But beyond "Being taken in by Putin's paranoia", I honestly don't understand why Russia in general would feel they have anything to fear from NATO.

Putin's (not entirely unreasonable) position and worldview is that it doesn't matter what NATO's intentions are. It only matters what capabilities are. Intentions can change very quickly.

France and Russia were allied in the 18th century. And then the French revolution happened, Napoleon ended up in power, and then ended up in Moscow. Briefly.

The German Weimar Republic was on good terms with the USSR in the 1920s. But the rise of the Nazis was pretty rapid, and a de facto alliance turned in a few short years in to Operation Barbarossa.

So Putin's view is that it doesn't matter what anyone's intentions are. Just the idea that the Russian defensive line starts 300km from Moscow on the Ukrainian border is what matters. Strategic depth is what has saved Russia in the past, and what it lacks without control of Ukraine. Ukraine might not intend any hostility to Russia, but give it a few years and changes of leadership, and what if there is am aggressive, beligerent ruler with the capability to use eastern Ukraine as a starting platform.

[BeondTheGrave]

7 minutes ago, akd said:

A new world is being born before our eyes. Russia's military operation in Ukraine has ushered in a new era - and in three dimensions at once. And of course, in the fourth, internal Russian. Here begins a new period both in ideology and in the very model of our socio-economic system - but this is worth talking about separately a little later. Russia is restoring its unity - the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe in our history, its unnatural dislocation, has been overcome. Yes, at a great cost, yes, through the tragic events of a virtual civil war, because now brothers, separated by belonging to the Russian and Ukrainian armies, are still shooting at each other, but there will be no more Ukraine as anti-Russia. Russia is restoring its historical fullness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together - in its entirety of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians. If we had abandoned this, if we had allowed the temporary division to take hold for centuries, then we would not only betray the memory of our ancestors, but would also be cursed by our descendants for allowing the disintegration of the Russian land. 

 Nationalists in Ukraine are fighting on the recommendation of foreigners, Putin said. Vladimir Putin has assumed, without a drop of exaggeration, a historic responsibility by deciding not to leave the solution of the Ukrainian question to future generations. After all, the need to solve it would always remain the main problem for Russia - for two key reasons. And the issue of national security, that is, the creation of anti-Russia from Ukraine and an outpost for the West to put pressure on us, is only the second most important among them. The first would always be the complex of a divided people, the complex of national humiliation - when the Russian house first lost part of its foundation (Kiev), and then was forced to come to terms with the existence of two states, not one, but two peoples. That is, either to abandon their history, agreeing with the insane versions that "only Ukraine is the real Russia," or to gnash one's teeth helplessly, remembering the times when "we lost Ukraine." Returning Ukraine, that is, turning it back to Russia, would be more and more difficult with every decade - recoding, de-Russification of Russians and inciting Ukrainian Little Russians against Russians would gain momentum. And in the event of the consolidation of the full geopolitical and military control of the West over Ukraine, its return to Russia would become completely impossible - it would have to fight for it with the Atlantic bloc. 

Now this problem is gone - Ukraine has returned to Russia. This does not mean that its statehood will be liquidated, but it will be reorganized, re-established and returned to its natural state of part of the Russian world. Within what boundaries, in what form will the alliance with Russia be consolidated (through the CSTO and the Eurasian Union or the Union State of Russia and Belarus)? This will be decided after the end is put in the history of Ukraine as anti-Russia. In any case, the period of the split of the Russian people is coming to an end. And here begins the second dimension of the coming new era - it concerns Russia's relations with the West. Not even Russia, but the Russian world, that is, three states, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, acting in geopolitical terms as a single whole. These relations have entered a new stage - the West sees the return of Russia to its historical borders in Europe. And he is loudly indignant at this, although in the depths of his soul he must admit to himself that it could not be otherwise. 

Russia formed a delegation for negotiations with Ukraine Did someone in the old European capitals, in Paris and Berlin, seriously believe that Moscow would give up Kyiv? That the Russians will forever be a divided people? And at the same time when Europe is uniting, when the German and French elites are trying to seize control of European integration from the Anglo-Saxons and assemble a united Europe? Forgetting that the unification of Europe became possible only thanks to the unification of Germany, which took place according to the good Russian (albeit not very smart) will. To swipe after that also on Russian lands is not even the height of ingratitude, but of geopolitical stupidity. The West as a whole, and even more so Europe in particular, did not have the strength to keep Ukraine in its sphere of influence, and even more so to take Ukraine for itself. In order not to understand this, one had to be just geopolitical fools. More precisely, there was only one option: to bet on the further collapse of Russia, that is, the Russian Federation. But the fact that it did not work should have been clear twenty years ago. And already fifteen years ago, after Putin's Munich speech, even the deaf could hear - Russia is returning. 

 Russia brought to Ukraine an agreement to organize negotiations, said Peskov Now the West is trying to punish Russia for the fact that it returned, for not justifying its plans to profit at its expense, for not allowing the expansion of the western space to the east. Seeking to punish us, the West thinks that relations with it are of vital importance to us. But this has not been the case for a long time - the world has changed, and this is well understood not only by Europeans, but also by the Anglo-Saxons who rule the West. No amount of Western pressure on Russia will lead to anything. There will be losses from the sublimation of confrontation on both sides, but Russia is ready for them morally and geopolitically. But for the West itself, an increase in the degree of confrontation incurs huge costs - and the main ones are not at all economic. Europe, as part of the West, wanted autonomy - the German project of European integration does not make strategic sense while maintaining the Anglo-Saxon ideological, military and geopolitical control over the Old World. Yes, and it cannot be successful, because the Anglo-Saxons need a controlled Europe. But Europe needs autonomy for another reason as well — in case the States go into self-isolation (as a result of growing internal conflicts and contradictions) or focus on the Pacific region, where the geopolitical center of gravity is moving.

Russia's rights in the Council of Europe suspended But the confrontation with Russia, into which the Anglo-Saxons are dragging Europe, deprives the Europeans of even the chances of independence - not to mention the fact that in the same way Europe is trying to impose a break with China. If now the Atlanticists are happy that the "Russian threat" will unite the Western bloc, then in Berlin and Paris they cannot fail to understand that, having lost hope for autonomy, the European project will simply collapse in the medium term. That is why independent-minded Europeans are now completely uninterested in building a new iron curtain on their eastern borders - realizing that it will turn into a corral for Europe. Whose century (more precisely, half a millennium) of global leadership is over in any case - but various options for its future are still possible. Because the construction of a new world order - and this is the third dimension of current events - is accelerating, and its contours are more and more clearly visible through the spreading cover of Anglo-Saxon globalization. A multipolar world has finally become a reality - the operation in Ukraine is not capable of rallying anyone but the West against Russia. Because the rest of the world sees and understands perfectly well - this is a conflict between Russia and the West, this is a response to the geopolitical expansion of the Atlanticists, this is Russia's return of its historical space and its place in the world.

No one in Europe wants to fight Russia,  China and India, Latin America and Africa, the Islamic world and Southeast Asia - no one believes that the West leads the world order, much less sets the rules of the game. Russia has not only challenged the West, it has shown that the era of Western global domination can be considered completely and finally over. The new world will be built by all civilizations and centers of power, naturally, together with the West (united or not) - but not on its terms and not according to its rules.

Cheers for that thanks