How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BeondTheGrave]

6 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://www.axios.com/eu-weapons-ukraine-russia-invasion-331bfcbc-5193-47b0-8afb-03f194d95619.html

"The latest: The EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said at press conference that member states will provide fighter jets at the request of the Ukrainian government, not just ammunition. He did not immediately provide more details."

multiple sources on this.

Depending on what airframe they are sending, it may not prove immediately useful. Does Poland/Southern Europe have any stocks of MiG-29s or Su-27s? Otherwise either those jets better come with "Ukrainian" pilots or it will take months to work up new ones. This seems like a move for the future, not the current crisis. 

[akd]

5 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

One of the successes of Russian propaganda in 2014-2016 was it was so constant, so monomessage. Dont trust authority, the things youre seeing arn't true, the good guys are really bad, embrace the demons living darkly in your soul. There were a thousand and one flours of that rhetoric, but all from the same meadow. IMO it succeeded for three reasons 1) by the time you stomp out one flower, two more have sprouted 2) it swamped out more traditional messages and buried it in a sea of disinfo, and 3) it tapped into genuine problems, things that were genuinely wrong in western society. Things that people actually thought and felt. 

With Ukraine its the exact opposite. The US's intel on Russia's plans dominated the news for weeks before the invasion. It was impossible to really deny because photos of a buildup are hard to challenge. And Russia lacked a clear justification for war. Look back at the trolls here, is it missile defense? NATO expansion? Nazism and genocide? And do any of those really speak to popular feelings about the region? No, I'd say. Putin ran into the same trouble that his opponents had previously. And once the war started it was too late. Twitter, Instagram, and Reddit were swamped with pro Ukraine posts. A deluge. It sucked the air out of the room and Putin's propaganda had no chance to take a breath. Now, I do think a lot of that was organic. A groundswell of popular support. But I also suspect a lot of the more anonymous accounts are run either by Ukrainians or western actors. 

Which is to say that I think youre right. The west learned Putin's playbook the hard way and I think now they're using it against him in a very subtle and smart way. 

But how does this still not end in massive loss of territory for Ukraine? I think we are celebrating strategic political victory for the West as Ukrainian strategic victory on the ground. They have almost certainly shown they can hold a good portion of their country at costs too high for Russia, but they may still end up severed from some of the most economically important parts of their lands, including possibly the entire southern coastline. Will Russia cede ground because of sanctions, or does it have to hold on to it even more tightly to justify the whole misadventure?

Edited February 27, 2022 by akd

[DesertFox]

Question to the experts. That is a huge shockwave. Any gusses what it might be? Reminds me somehow to the shockwave of the Beirut explosion.

 

 

[Kraft]

1 minute ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

Guess I'm throwing in my 2 cents on the political side--as a Russian that came to the US as a little boy, I've got some visibility into the culture. The US/NATO played a role in stoking this by spreading NATO post-cold war TOWARDS Russia's borders. NATO does not appreciate that Russia considers this an existential threat, as we can see by their actions... I'm against wars of aggression, of course, easily. I'm rooting for Ukraine, and wishing the violence and death would end. That said I think NATO has a part to play in de-escalating and naming Ukraine as a neutral country. To keep upping the ante with announcing more lethal aid can get reckless. This is a rather dangerous game of chicken.

Nato will do much if Putin takes his pills and stops threatening to glass this planet because we hurt his economy and block him from Eurovision song contest.

[The_MonkeyKing]

wow, just wow

Edited February 27, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[akd]

1 minute ago, DesertFox said:

Question to the experts. That is a huge shockwave. Any gusses what it might be? Reminds me somehow to the shockwave of the Beirut explosion.

 

 

Probably hit on ammo storage.

[The_MonkeyKing]

3 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Depending on what airframe they are sending, it may not prove immediately useful. Does Poland/Southern Europe have any stocks of MiG-29s or Su-27s? Otherwise either those jets better come with "Ukrainian" pilots or it will take months to work up new ones. This seems like a move for the future, not the current crisis. 

MiG-29s from Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria

and don't count out volunteer pilots. They are no different from other volunteer fighters

[MOS:96B2P]

2 hours ago, George MC said:

Thread about Russian AFVs that have driven off bridges. 

 

Well, for the best results, one waypoint needs to be placed immediately before the bridge starts and a second waypoint immediately after the bridge.  They could have saved these vehicles if they had trained with Combat Mission prior to the invasion.   

[Phantom Captain]

6 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

Well, for the best results, one waypoint needs to be placed immediately before the bridge starts and a second waypoint immediately after the bridge.  They could have saved these vehicles if they had trained with Combat Mission prior to the invasion.   

Apparently, if we look at Russian results so far from video, traffic bunching and jamming on roads ala CM is also, indeed, 100% accurate.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Phantom Captain

[Aragorn2002]

4 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

Well, for the best results, one waypoint needs to be placed immediately before the bridge starts and a second waypoint immediately after the bridge.  They could have saved these vehicles if they had trained with Combat Mission prior to the invasion.   

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, akd said:

Probably hit on ammo storage.

My guess too, someone may try and spin as a tac nuke but there was a primary and then big secondary.

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Phantom Captain said:

Apparently, if we look at the Russians also, traffic bunching and jamming ala CM is also indeed 100% accurate.

[dan/california]

27 minutes ago, womble said:

Or are they going to use their air defense assets to shoot over the border at planes dropping off AT on NATO soil? Do their systems have the reach?

Once, maybe, barely. If the crews aren't drunk, the important bits haven't been sold on the black market, and the sergeant is having the better kind of hangover. But As soon as the Russians start shooting into NATO air space, NATO is  going to Turn Putin's Ukrainian fiasco into the biggest funeral pyre since Saddam tried to retreat from Kuwait. Half of the Russian army in Ukraine would surrender before the planes could reload for a second mission, and the other half wouldn't stop running this side of the Urals.

[Phantom Captain]

In solidarity,

My CM inspired Ukrainian flag.

[Codreanu]

19 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

This IL-76 shot down stuff sounds bogus--no way IL-76 full of paratroopers went down over Ukraine or even Russia without people noticing, even in a sparsely populated area. You don't think someone would see the fireball? Hear the sound? have some photo/video to share of the vast amount of debris that would be littered about the next morning? MH17 was hit at 30k' altitude, there was video footage, recognizable debris all over the place, remains.... etc. Not to mention that we haven't heard or seen anything solid regarding VDV on the ground near Vasylkiv.

I'm taking kill claims from both sides with a huge grain of salt right now, what's happening there is just too chaotic to know for sure. So far I've only seen pictures/video of 2 Ka-52s, a Hind, an An-24 that crashed not due to enemy action, an an Su-30 that I think was destroyed by a Ukrainian Tochka that hit an airbase.

[BeondTheGrave]

6 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

wow, just wow

Is that a Thermobaric? 

4 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

MiG-29s from Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria

and don't count out volunteer pilots. They are no different from other volunteer fighters

Good points. Though would volunteer pilots in traded planes be a potentially escalatory step? 

 

10 minutes ago, akd said:

But how does this still not end in massive loss of territory for Ukraine? I think we are celebrating strategic political victory for the West as Ukrainian strategic victory on the ground. They have almost certainly shown they can hold a good portion of their country at costs too high for Russia, but they may still end up severed from some of the most economically important parts of their lands, including possibly the entire southern coastline. Will Russia cede ground because of sanctions, or does it have to hold on to it even more tightly to justify the whole misadventure?

To be honest I see this moment as a potentially very dangerous one for the Russian state and Putin. The longer he doubles down on the war, the greater his risks. If on Friday Russian reserves are still banging away on the Kharkov line and the MoEx is a smoking crater, I dont think anybody can predict the outcome of that. Russia has to win now, and cannot survive the political shock of many more losses. But Ukraine is not cut off, its not isolated. Western resupply efforts on a scale not seen since at least 1973 will keep the Ukrainian military in the field. If @The_MonkeyKingis right about volunteer pilots and airframe, Russia may soon lose what temporary air superiority it has. Put another way, Ukraine is preserving much of its strength while Russia is bleeding white. The have one last shot, "the Old Guard." But the danger of the moment is: even if the Guard wins, even if Kiev falls and Ukraine collapses, the army is more smashed than Putin's credibility. He has broken his sword at the very moment that the wolves have arrived at his door. For reasons pointed out by many of the people above in this thread who are much smarter than I, Putin is going to face at best three crises coming out of this war. An insurgency in Ukraine, an economy with serious long term damage, and broken promises to both the people and the oligarchs. Its the recipe for disaster. Keep in mind, thats the exact combination of factors (a failed military adventure, economic collapse, and domestic unrest) which toppled both the Tsar and the USSR. Victory may be the only thing that save Putin, but even a quick (from here) victory wont stop the challenge.  

[Mft004]

Came here to get a better understanding of the make-up of military forces on both sides of this conflict - you know, the interesting details comparing and theorizing on capability of tanks, missiles, planes, army group divisions etc; but am coming across post after post now which appear more akin to the work of propaganda departments and I thought I'd left that bunch of monkeys with the mainstream media outlets. So, just to help out the armchair generals who maybe drank a bit too much Dutch courage today, here's a beautiful 2-sided coin::

side 1:

-'Russian forces are running out of supplies'

-'Political action from NATO countries and allies will crush Russian economic fortunes'

-'Russian forces are getting bogged down by stiff Ukrainian resistance'

-'Russians can't even take Kiev let alone the whole territory'

-'Russian people are fuming and are ready to kick Putin out of the Kremlin the moment one more Russian fighter loses its way in a fog'

 

side 2:

-'Russian fortress economy is stronger than you know or care to admit'

-'Russian faith and loyalty to Putin and, more accurately, his government, is stronger than you know or care to admit'

-'Russian forces outnumber those of Ukraine by roughly 10 to 1 - even if there were other theaters to keep an eye on in the east/south, that still amounts to total numerical superiority'

-'Russian forces have had more recent military experience than those of Ukraine - see Syria'

-'Russian military planners don't need to win this war in 2/3 days - rather they want to win it with minimal civilian casualties hence a slow, careful approach that gradually bleeds Ukranian stagetic assets dry'

 

Please remember, when posting, that this beautiful 2-sided coin very much exists. And I'll throw one more thought out there which may be a little too uncomfortable to hear but here goes - and it's for your own good. Every time someone posts positively about the chances of one side winning, with that post encouraing other like-minded people to be similarly encouraged, this reduces the chances of their political leaders feeling the urge to take further action, as their political intelligence agencies then pass word along to them that the masses are happy with the situation.

Kind regards,

Mark

 

[dan/california]

17 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

MiG-29s from Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria

and don't count out volunteer pilots. They are no different from other volunteer fighters

Still wondering how many Polish and or Baltic states special forces types volunteered last Wednesday? Volunteered to spend their leaves chasing Ukrainian girls, of course. Oddly enough the they decided to travel Kyiv in large trucks full of munitions and secure radios. Seems like a strange way to spend a vacation. But who knows?

[DesertFox]

Bad news, if true:

 

 

[Baneman]

9 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Good points. Though would volunteer pilots in traded planes be a potentially escalatory step? 

How would the Russians know ? They'd have to shoot one down AND capture the pilot.

And even then, he/she could be "on leave". Russia invented that wheeze, it's too bad if it gets used against them, they don't get exclusive copyright on it, hehe. 

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Massive explosion in Cherkasy

 

Is that a Thermobaric? 

I've read Cherkasy's users twitter accounts, there is nothing about such huge explosion, though the city got three hits 4 hours ago. Looks like this is old video of some ammunition depot explosion  

[BeondTheGrave]

 

Will the Belorussians be the shock troops Putin needs to break through? Or can we now see the bottom of the barrel. edit: beaten to the punch!

 

Regarding Ukrainian resistance, I think ultimately @akd does have a bit of a point. Ukraine needs this war to end as fast as Russia does. Russia can keep mobilizing troops until eventually the nub that remains knows how to really fight, while Ukraine has already mobilized its full population. I agree with @The_Captthat Ukraine's choices remain much more open, but at the same time the threat against them remains far more concrete. The war is not over, though I think were in phase two, whatever that means. 

Edited February 27, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Bulletpoint]

31 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Question to the experts. That is a huge shockwave. Any gusses what it might be? Reminds me somehow to the shockwave of the Beirut explosion.

 

 

Ammunition depot I would say. I saw a similar video of an explosion some years ago.

[BeondTheGrave]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

I've read Cherkasy's users twitter accounts, there is nothing about such huge explosion, though the city got three hits 4 hours ago. Looks like this is old video of some ammunition depot explosion  

Does anyone know how significant a TOS warhead is? How big is the explosion. I feel like all this reporting on it has just built in my head of some doomsday weapon. A mini nuke. Is that really how it is?  

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, Mft004 said:

Came here to get a better understanding of the make-up of military forces on both sides of this conflict - you know, the interesting details comparing and theorizing on capability of tanks, missiles, planes, army group divisions etc; but am coming across post after post now which appear more akin to the work of propaganda departments and I thought I'd left that bunch of monkeys with the mainstream media outlets. So, just to help out the armchair generals who maybe drank a bit too much Dutch courage today, here's a beautiful 2-sided coin::

side 1:

-'Russian forces are running out of supplies'

-'Political action from NATO countries and allies will crush Russian economic fortunes'

-'Russian forces are getting bogged down by stiff Ukrainian resistance'

-'Russians can't even take Kiev let alone the whole territory'

-'Russian people are fuming and are ready to kick Putin out of the Kremlin the moment one more Russian fighter loses its way in a fog'

 

side 2:

-'Russian fortress economy is stronger than you know or care to admit'

-'Russian faith and loyalty to Putin and, more accurately, his government, is stronger than you know or care to admit'

-'Russian forces outnumber those of Ukraine by roughly 10 to 1 - even if there were other theaters to keep an eye on in the east/south, that still amounts to total numerical superiority'

-'Russian forces have had more recent military experience than those of Ukraine - see Syria'

-'Russian military planners don't need to win this war in 2/3 days - rather they want to win it with minimal civilian casualties hence a slow, careful approach that gradually bleeds Ukranian stagetic assets dry'

 

Please remember, when posting, that this beautiful 2-sided coin very much exists. And I'll throw one more thought out there which may be a little too uncomfortable to hear but here goes - and it's for your own good. Every time someone posts positively about the chances of one side winning, with that post encouraing other like-minded people to be similarly encouraged, this reduces the chances of their political leaders feeling the urge to take further action, as their political intelligence agencies then pass word along to them that the masses are happy with the situation.

Kind regards,

Mark

 

Wow.  Heck'of a first post.  So humble.  So respectful.  So... wrong. 

Almost all of your "Side 2" stuff is factually incorrect.  Well, except for the support for Putin thing.  That is mostly true today, but history has taught us that people tend to be fickle and will turn on bad leaders quickly under the right circumstances.  Just as Nicolae Ceaușescu for example.

Aside from the easily dismissed and factually inaccurate statements you made, your basic premise is correct.  For each pro there is often a con.  But you doing a lot of what is called "false equivocation".  The best example of this is what happens with climate denial on right wing media.  They have one person who represents tens of thousands of scientists facing off against one person who represents the oil and gas industry (at best) or the tinfoil hat crowd (at worst).  From there it pretends to be a symmetrical discussion when, in fact, it is anything but.

I wonder what sort of coin could take the World Is Round point of view on one side and the Flat Earth Society on the other.

And there.  I fed a Troll.  Now I feel dirty.

Steve