Homo_Ferricus

As someone who has written, recorded and mixed music--Yes this is possible, particularly when inspired or driven to write and record. Mixing and mastering in particular (which used to be painstaking, depending on the level of quality you're looking for) are easier than ever with AI and algorithmic tools. Yes I agree, you are writing like a mad conspiracy theorist.

Thanks, Bill. I appreciate the resources you provided, and the context for the discharge petition. Took a moment to track down my rep (who hasn't signed) and rattled the windows a bit.

I think the importance of Krynky comes down to options spaces. Krynky is valuable to UKR because it creates options and undecides the defense of this flank for RU (in @The_Capt language), not necessarily because they have a grand plan of how they're going to exploit it. It's important to RU for the same reason. While the air and sea dimensions are still quite fluid, it seems like a lot of the aspects of the ground war have stabilized and been decided for the time being, with Krynky appearing to be an exception. This rings true for me. A deathmatch arena for attrition as opposed to a jump-off point for larger operations. At least for now.

Having been born in Moscow and raised in the culture, this is where my message is coming from; we on this forum have been taking a very logical and almost mathematical approach to calculating Russia's damage and preconcluding it's fate. We need to understand that, while certainly not limitless nor supernatural, there is a certain character of stubborn will and seemingly senseless perseverance in the face of opposition that can be conjured in the collective "Russian" when the circumstances are right. We've talked about it here before. As the war has continued Putin and the state are doing a fair job of galvanizing the public to rally around their identity, but its not all "master strategist Putin" pulling the strings. Microeconomies are popping up, local Russians are manufacturing their own cheese to replace imports, companies are cleverly outmaneuvering sanctions, entrepreneurs are exploiting openings, industries are slowly, painfully adapting and gaining confidence. And as all that goes on the average Russian begins to settle into the "us against them" mentality of besiegement. Early in the war western media called this "Putin's war" and blamed the Russian government. Slowly the messaging has changed, and now we believe every Russian to be responsible for what is happening. While I agree that this is true in a spiritual and philosophical sense, it also drives Russians deeper inward, hardening their resolve and pushing people to close ranks. Unfortunately the more defensive ordinary Russians feel, the more difficult it will be for them to mentally separate the state from the greater identity. Young people are not excluded from this phenomena, including the bright minds. I can imagine some of the brights coming back home to Russia after living in an undignified mode of "otherness" and "humiliation" in places like Georgia, Armenia, Germany, Turkey, Kazakhstan etc. Having heard the call to return to family and rodina, sprung by the excitement of building something new at home while affirming their identities and standing up with dignity against their opponents. Your reply to my points on Russian economic recovery make sense, though it's worth pointing out that macroeconomics is one of the lesser precise "sciences". I leave room for fated chance, unintended consequences and human ingenuity to change what looks like a logical outcome to us at the moment. Of course we've discussed Russia being a pressure cooker and how everything can come crashing quite dramatically, but that's not the feeling in the air that I'm catching at this moment. Excuse me for this post that was less factual and more like pseudo-shamanic reading of my own tea leaves. Slava Ukraini

Of course it doesn't, and yes it will be painful for them. But not terminal and not in a way that precludes significant and destabilizing future Russian menacing of the west. There are plenty of painful economic changes we in the west endure yet somehow we often come out of it stronger. Let's not get sucked into "Russia sucks" beliefs about this. We hooted and scoffed about the ruble collapsing, crippling sanctions, unmaintained planes falling from the sky, freezing of finances and corporate pullouts. And here they are, adapting as hardy humans do. Sure, but they will have the means--they will feel the brain drain and economic difficulties sure, but Russia is populous, resource-rich and has a heavier war industry than most other countries, and has a heavyweight financial sponsor to its east. Say what you will about demographic decline and economic projections; all I said is still true. We all know how anxious the current Ru military leadership is to squander opportunities, but for a country like this on paper, having been evacuated of their old tanks and legacy military equipment is practically an invitation to rebuild according to the new ways of war. The impact of losing 3000 tanks becomes almost a blessing than a curse. Very possible we see some shuffling of leadership to enable such rebuilding in the next 10 years, depending on how things go politically. I don't think history will remember the catastrophic losses and the dead peasants so much as It will remember that Putin looked on a map and said, "That's mine now." And so it was. It's a symbolic victory and a (im)moral victory of strategic significance. Despite the answers to your questions about whatever practical advantages Russia has won and at which cost, I believe the optics of history will above all capture the image of Russia taking what it wants. A strategic corridor no less. That would be a Total Victory, not just a strategic one. As when Hitler conquered France. I do not have your experience, education or analytical skill. I love reading your posts and thank you for them. This post is a manifestation of my deep wariness of those that keep increasing the tint of their rosy glasses (not saying you are). Hubris comes before the fall and our societies have become fat with it. I can only trust that our institutions are still staffed by talented and committed individuals like yourself, and are refreshing themselves adequately as times change and entropy takes its toll. I wouldn't say I'm pessimistic, I'd say I'm advocating for sober and serious preparation.

Timing of this left bank raid is definitely interesting. I'm thinking the purpose may be to draw Russian reinforcements/redeployments to the Kherson region, which can be clobbered with their shiny new ATACMS cluster missiles as they redeploy along the old familiar paths (which are now in range).

That's interesting, the President typically flies in one of these... edit: flight landed about 4 hours ago. I'm intrigued. edit2: This is apparently a flight picking up Russian diplomats in DC "Who are due to return after a 3-year stay." https://tass.com/politics/1639381

Of all the things being caught on video in this war, I would imagine catching a helicopter playing peek-a-boo 10km away would be one of the more difficult ones to film, for the reasons stated in the last page or two.

Are all the tanks in this video Russian? If this is a UKR drone ostensibly filming from the direction UKR is advancing from, it appears that some of the tanks in the foreground are UKR tanks on the advance?

Just want to reiterate the end of the article everyone's referring to for clarity, since a few forumgoers are writing as if these three were arrested after yesterday's strikes... edited to add bold.

Did you read that article? There's nothing going on with Zolotov. He's the one who relieved Major General Vadim Dragomiretsky, who is some guy in the central district whom Zolotov relieved after Dragomiretsky was accused of taking bribes.

I'll play devil's advocate. Clearly this random pedestrian in Moscow puts up a pathetic argument... but you can't just say, "We have nukes, the hell do we care what they do?" If Mexico became devoutly pro-Russian and anti-US overtly in their policy and government, I believe the US would in fact (ultimately) interfere with direct action in order to prevent or reverse that course from occurring or continuing. But we have nukes--why do we care or feel threatened by Mexico? Well, international relations is a lot more complicated than, "are we afraid of being invaded" as it turns out. Not to revive the ancient conversation of capability=threat, distance to Moscow and Russia traditionally relying on depth for it's strategic defense, etc. EDIT: also wanted to mention 1420 is a great channel for westerners that want to see a sample of what actual everyday Russians feel and think. The subtitles aren't always precise and I highly recommend paying attention to body language and the way words are spoken, not just the written text. Russian sarcasm runs deep.

If anyone wants to PVP this, I'll gladly roleplay the incompetent Russian officer. I will get drunk before playing every turn, and will have no regard for my pixeltruppen whatsoever, while keeping in line with observed Russian practices in May.

And with that the mystery is solved. Handshakes and back-pats all around, well done everyone. Case closed. Further analysis no longer required

Do we know if NASAMS is up and running yet?

I guess the gunner is foreign legion/westerner because the occupants in the humvee are shouting at him to fire more, seems like at least one tries to communicate that in English.

I agree that he has a bit of "sky is falling" catastrophism at times, though I haven't heard any economic speculations that were totally baseless, yet. Admittedly I don't always listen to his "strategic analysis" and sometimes go straight to the rundown at the front. I do think his more pessimistic viewpoint can be a decent counterbalance for some of the overconfidence and rah-rah we're winning perspectives. If only to highlight some areas of trouble that perhaps aren't being discussed in the super-optimistic sources. Regarding Kharkiv running out of steam--I hadn't heard him discuss things that way; he seemed to take the more "operational pause" angle if I'm not mistaken. And just last night he stated what I heard him say many times--that Kherson was doomed to fall and it was a matter of time. I don't think he's ever said that the op has failed, perhaps that certain advances stalled (which they had).

I rely on that channel quite a bit for updates, so curious to hear your grievance with it if only for a few sentences.

Friedman wrote a book in 2009, "The Next 100 Years" where he in fact predicted that the Russian Federation would fracture and fall apart in the 2020's, 30's and 40's. Seems pretty likely right now that he nailed that analysis. Granted, there's plenty he said that hasn't manifested so far either. He didn't seem to be particularly concerned about China's rise in his book, and yet here we are with their military spending coming to par with the US. I don't think he has any particular skill in military matters.

I had the same thought, though the guy recording the video of the trucks in the recently posted video said something along the lines of, "Never have I seen something like this before." And I imagine this guy has been around for previous Moscow Days.

Interesting that Russia is counting on General Winter to save the day, even in an offensive expeditionary campaign like this one.

In some sense they have. In another sense, any Ukrainian will tell you that government agencies as well as the military are fairly liberally sprinkled with RU informants and collaborators. Though something like this may well have been heavily compartmentalized.

You, sir, are either taking the piss. Or you are badly in need of sleep. edit: and I'm beginning to drink a bit too much.

Anybody else playing the drinking game, "Have a drink every time Steve misspells the name of a weapons system"? I may need to go to the hospital soon

Been hungry for a debrief of the initial airborne ops around Hostomel. "War in Ukraine" YT channel did one a couple weeks ago that I just found. A bit clumsy as far as debriefs go, but some interesting stuff in there that I wasn't aware of: Majority of the troops that landed in the helis were actually 45th Spetsnaz Brigade, not actual VDV, though there were numbers of VDV volunteers in the grouping. (According to Haiduk below 45th SB is actually under VDV Command) Of 2 or 3 helis that were shot down in the initial assault, one of them contained the commander of the grouping which significantly contributed to their post-landing paralysis. There actually WAS a landing at Vasylkiv that was rather successful from the start (I recall lots of rumors and conflicting info about Vasylkiv in those first days as things were happening). Though that grouping of ~200 Russians were eventually surrounded and neutralized by the 72nd Brigade that was brought up from the south. No mention of the Ukrainians retaking the airfield overnight... The planned IL-76 landings at Hostomel and Vasylkiv were cancelled since they weren't secure. Not clear if those planes ever took off, but pretty much 100% that no IL-76 were shot down at this point. Pardon me if this is old news to the forum at large.... We still don't know much about the author(s) of this channel--clearly it's someone who is from the region (probably Ukrainian?) who is knowledgeable in military, political, economic affairs. He often presents and pushes information that is contrary to a lot of what is said both in the mainstream AND on this forum. Often taking a more pessimistic position that things in Ukraine are worse than many portray (state of economy, competence of military leadership, logistical capacities, etc.) Curious how some of our more hardcore observers/contributors here feel about his data and opinions.