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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 hour ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Just thinking about it a little, operationally the Russian attack seems to be drawn straight out of the 1980s playbook as @The_Capt describes. Four or five major axis of advance along virtually the entire front. Each thrust alone would have the potential to unbalance and destroy the Ukrainian's field army and ability to resist. Take for example the Kharkov offensive which threatened yesterday to encircle the Ukrainian Donbass army. But even if that fails, strategic envelopment arms are also in motion to threaten an even deeper encirclement. And the sword of Damocles that hangs over all of this are the supposed thousands of reserves Russia has still yet to commit. Once success is achieved, the second echelon can move in and cement the victory. Even the use of VDV forces, while apparently mismanaged, harkens back to Soviet-style employment. 

I suppose its not all that shocking, has the US ever really 'moved past' AirLand battle in its conventional warfighting doctrine? I suspect new ideas are lipstick on the same pig. AirLand Battle with Cyber frosting and UAV sprinkles. SO it should be no shock that really Russia is just fighting a modern deep battle here, if it aint broke dont fix it. Just interesting, strange, and sad to see it play out live and in color. Even when you know its coming, what can you do to stop it?

Indeed.  I am afraid that despite the human tragedy my professional curiosity keeps getting the better of me.  I think we will be unpacking this for years as conventional peer-on-peer fights are very rare in the wild in the modern era (let's hope they stay that way).

Three biggest issues with Soviet doctrine of "military mass on multiple fronts, then reinforce success" was momentum, C2 and logistics.  Momentum is in the wind but it looks like not a lot of urban combat so far so the Russians are keeping it moving. As to C2, reports from 2014 demonstrate that Russia appeared to have taken a more western approach to C2 but again we will be unpacking that for some time. 

Logistics has to be what is keeping the Russian commanders up at night right now.  That is a really tough logistical problem with really dynamic lines of communication and very hungry lead sabre elements.  That, and not a lot of reports of mass Ukrainian surrenders - I am sure it would be all over the internet if there were, but these are early days - so enveloped units are continuing to fight or de-aggregate into a hybrid warfare model.  Neither of those two options are good for long lines of communication. 

Russia has to be pulling for a short sharp war here, the west is hoping for the opposite and the Ukrainians are caught in between.  I am not sure how widespread the arming of civilians is right now but that is a sign the Ukrainians are considering digging in hard. 

Edited by The_Capt
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3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Logistics has to be what is keeping the Russian commanders up at night right now.  That is a really tough logistical problem with really dynamic lines of communication and very hungry lead sabre elements.

I don't think they are too worried about that. Both major Ukraininan cities are quite close to the border, and Russia has nearly total air superiority.

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@Warts 'n' all@Aragorn2002 Gents please take it outside...

21 hours ago, BFCElvis said:

Correct. Frankly, I think this is an important thread. So, I am loath to lock it. If people start going down that road I will just give them short vacations from posting, without prior warning, rather than lock it. 

Edited by Holien
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15 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I don't think they are too worried about that. Both major Ukraininan cities are quite close to the border, and Russia has nearly total air superiority.

One of their main goals must be to close the borders asap, in order to prevent arms deliveries from abroad and the escape of people on the wishlist of the FSB.

Edited by Aragorn2002
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12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Logistics has to be what is keeping the Russian commanders up at night right now.  That is a really tough logistical problem with really dynamic lines of communication and very hungry lead sabre elements.  That, and not a lot of reports of mass Ukrainian surrenders - I am sure it would be all over the internet if there were, but these are early days - so enveloped units are continuing to fight or de-aggregate into a hybrid warfare model.  Neither of those two options are good for long lines of communication. 

I guess this problem is much more troublesome to a 2022 Russian military compare to a 1982 Soviet military. BTG solved the personal shortage issue, but at the cost of cut off logistic units.

Whole armor recovery/repair units are gone, so a damaged tank could be a permanently lose. 

in 1980's the fuel truck , ammo truck accompany division's movement under the protection of a Co or a Bn. nowadays supply convoy need to be organized at Army level , but where to find those BTG, who is responsible to protect the supply convoy. Guess there are alot of question a staff officer have to ask.

 

 

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22 hours ago, Holien said:

They don't have to retake it as be able to bring the right weapons to bear on the runway. 

The only way this is going to bring Putin down is with the deaths of Russian service personnel.

I am truly saddened that we are hoping Ukraine will inflict the maximum damage on the Russian forces, yet those that put them in harms way will have hot meals and vodka in their dachas tonight, may hell truly exist and be visited upon the Dick"tator who has brought this upon the innocent. 

A dictator needs lots of followers, helpers and henchmen. It's not just Putin, it's the mentality of the biggest part of an entire nation. So yeah, maximum damage, let it come. That's the only way some people learn.

Trully saddened and innocent, my backside.

Probably time for a forced short vacation, but it's worth it.

Edited by Aragorn2002
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Also people are talking as if Ukraine has already lost becasue there are Russians troops at Kyiv suburbs. Kyiv was always going to be reached by Russian forces with relative ease due to its position geograhically. Now they have to take it. Lets wait and see how the battle develops. It looks grim but is too early to say that all is lost.

Edited by CHEqTRO
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The last thing we need to do is to censor the images coming out of Ukraine. The fact is that people have become removed from the horror and the real suffering which war brings. Only by showing that horror can you ensure that people realise that it must be avoided where possible. You can guarantee that the orcs are not showing those images to their population and will be suppressing details of their casualties which seems to be mounting up.

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5 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Also people are talking as if Ukraine has already lost becasue there are Russians troops at Kyiv suburbs. Kyiv was always going to be reached by Russian forces with relative ease due to its position geograhically. Now they have to take it. Lets wait and see how the battle develops. It looks grim but is to early to say that all is lost.

Agreed. Perhaps the world can do what Moscow usually does in this kind of situations: send in 'mercenaries'. Better than nothing.

Edited by Aragorn2002
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9 minutes ago, Flibby said:

The last thing we need to do is to censor the images coming out of Ukraine. The fact is that people have become removed from the horror and the real suffering which war brings. Only by showing that horror can you ensure that people realise that it must be avoided where possible. You can guarantee that the orcs are not showing those images to their population and will be suppressing details of their casualties which seems to be mounting up.

This is not the venue for those types of inflammatory images. I’m sure old Warty wants nothing more than to disrupt this thread and get it shut down. @BFCElvis

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Two comercial vessels hit by the Russian army in addition to the turkish one yesterday. These ones seems Romanian/Moldavan

Edit:

An image of the soldiers who resisted russian attacks by themselves against all odds on Snake Island and gave their lives for it. A salute to these heroes.

Edited by CHEqTRO
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On BBC ->
 

Posted at 16:5616:56

Russia has lost momentum, US says

A US defence official has said Russian forces have lost momentum in their invasion of Ukraine.

According to the Reuters news agency the official said no Ukrainian population centres have been taken so far, but some Russian missiles have impacted residential areas.

They added there are also indications of cyber attacks against the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant in the south of Ukraine.

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According to WSJ, India has refused to condemn Russia and also Europe is prevaricating on implementing all the sanctions.  Also, so far, energy seems to be excepted.  A bad signal re international unity vs the invasion. 

"...many in China have dubbed Putin the Great...

Be interesting to watch State of The Union next Tuesday.

 
 
Edited by Erwin
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