How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vergeltungswaffe]

5 hours ago, sburke said:

Russians Fear Commanders Are Selling Their Own Troops’ Locations for Cash (thedailybeast.com)

That's gotta be good for morale.

You offer serious $ and asylum and there's no telling what they might sell you.

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Vergeltungswaffe said:

You offer serious $ and asylum and there's no telling what they might sell you.

We need to pursue that more...

 

[gnarly]

Apologies if posted previously, recorded 27 June, but an interesting listen. Seems a solid overview of the war to date

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/a-turning-point-in-ukraine/id1629454648?i=1000568268889

 

Quote

Dr Jack Watling talks to Peter as he returns from his most recent trip to Ukraine. As both Ukrainian and Russian forces reorganise for the next phase, the conflict is poised at a critical moment: one dependent on stockpiles, logistics, resupply, people, leadership and styles of fighting. Whilst Jack brings his latest insights to the listeners, he and Peter have a discussion over the information war and debunk some of the myths and fallacies around the public face of the war. Jack also highlights some of the lessons emerging from the conflict that are likely to endure and apply across other wars. Sobering stuff.

 

Edited July 6, 2022 by gnarly

[FancyCat]

Russia has been forming a 3rd Army Corps, Mulino, Nizhny Novgorod region, alleged by Ukraine, that CIT confirmed.

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

On 7/4/2022 at 7:32 AM, Grigb said:

Marines are supposed to be an elite. Yet this group of marines are either low level thugs or outright prisoners.  

Having both Leatherneck and Bootneck friends, let me assure you it is entirely possible to be all of the above lol.

I have no reason to believe he lied....

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I don't usually call the Russians "Orks", but this is starting to look like something from Warhammer 40K.

Please stop being so insensitive... the real Orcs are getting upset:

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, sburke said:

Russians Fear Commanders Are Selling Their Own Troops’ Locations for Cash (thedailybeast.com)

That's gotta be good for morale.

I've been meaning to write this for the last dozen pages or so.  Now seems to be a good time to fix that...

We've all been enamored with the big fireworks displays of Russian ammo dumps going BOOM lately.  All very truly impressive.  Hats off to Ukrainian artillery for a job very well done.  But let's also give a round of applause to all the people that identified those locations for the artillery to strike!  Some of these have been known by Ukraine intel for years, but many are new to this war.  Some are quite localized too.  Which means whatever Ukraine does for its intel gathering, it's definitely working for them.

Russia can neither run nor hide in Ukraine.  That's gotta be depressing for them.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

Is this true? Recruiting criminals to commit warcrimes. This war enters a new low.

Putin is recruiting prisoners with $3100 'bribe' to fight in Ukraine (msn.com)

[LongLeftFlank]

6 hours ago, Huba said:

All right guys, this is a post where I spill my guts in quite an emotional manner, please move along if your're not up for it.

I'll start with stating that I'm really fond of this community that I accidentally found thanks to @Der Zeitgeist. While we differ in perception of some minutiae of the events unraveling in front of us, we all seem to share the same view on whats right and moral in this context. And that is really a lot, more that I could expect from most of my average 'real', 'physical' acquaintances.

For my whole life, since I was an 8 years old kid listening to my grandpa's war tales, I was deeply interested in all things military related. It is easy to get a young boy interested  in this kind of stuff - the power, the agency, the feeling of purpose this provides is unmatched by anything else in the world. Of course  when you're still an adolescent, your understanding of what war/ armed conflict means cannot be deep enough. As I was entering my adulthood, even studying military history academically, I grew to hate the very notion of armed conflict and violence. I guess getting the real grasp of what war means to a regular person was too much to me at this point. I retained my interest, but didn't really pursue it apart from theoretical knowledge. Especially, I dodged the last years of draft i Poland - neither me, nor Polish civil society in general was really ready for it in early 2000's. I was living my life happily since then, like if "The End of History" was and undisputed fact of life.

And it really changed with the start of war in Ukraine. I could easily picture myself in the position of average Kyiv or Kharkiv citizen, a guy in his late 30s, with a reasonable career in IT, concentrated on making a living for his wife and young kids, who is suddenly confronted with the need to physically fight for all that is important for him. 

Of course, in this great community we mostly  concentrate of relatively coldly analysing what is going on, trying to get a grasp of events the way a historian narrates the Battle of Kursk - it is of course THE WAY to practically understand the events and be able to draw conclusions. That's how a commander should look at it, putting his feeling aside. This however isn't the only way to talk about war, especially it isn't the only "right" way to do so. 

On a personal or local society level, what this war is is the fight between right and wrong, between liberty and slavery, between good and evil. Of course, if you are a mature individual, you understand that the good and bad are very relative terms, and it's best to avoid such violent situations at all. Yet, it if comes to the conflict like this, for me the only true way to talk about the people on the very front line, in the trenches facing The Enemy, is poetry and epic prose. The cold analysis is of course important to practical understanding of the situation, yet it doesn't do justice to a person giving his or her life for a greater cause. Having said that, I run at a few videos kept very much in the spirit I outlined here:

A music video to Sabaton's 40:1 song, really fitting the evens of the first few weeks of war. We might've forget it already, but the first days were about the grassroots citizen resistance that in many cases stopped the orcs. Videos from February and March are really reminding of what it is all about:

Here's an Azov oath from 2015, it's as powerful as it gets:

And a subtitled Ukrainian anthem:

There's a conclusion to this rant - today I sent a letter to my local Territorial Defense brigade. They are overflowing with volunteers at the moment, but I'll should be able to join in the winter, early next year at the latest.

It's OK, I'll have the time to get used to morning jogs I guess.

Well done sir!  I would do much the same in your place.

But let's dwell for a moment on 'your place.' As I noted a while ago, the productive heartland of Europe is about to move East. Poland plus Slovakia plus Ukraine plus Belarus creates a powerful pan-Slavic macroeconomic region of some 125 million living in spacious, climate-change-resistant river valleys with plentiful natural resources and well developed infrastructure.

The one positive thing Communism left behind in Eastern Europe is excellent secondary polytechnic education, a byproduct of forced industrialisation. 

For all the old EU sneering about 'Polish plumbers', it's a backhand compliment to unfussy people who bring tangible, practical problem solving skills. Ukrainians seem cut from much the same cloth: tough, cheerful and adaptive! Not so different from how Americans used to think of themselves (and some still are).

... All this region needs to thrive is to get the boot of outside imperialist overlords off its neck, whether it's Austrians, Germans, Muscovites, post-Soviet mafiyas, or anyone else. In fact, break the legs inside those boots as needed to make that point!

Ukrainians (and Poles) should keep rifles in their homes for a generation, with localities maintaining armouries of AT weapons. Well ordered militias, bedrock of  diversified, no-nonsense republics.

...And we shall see what kind of economic order can grow from that base. I personally believe great things are possible.

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Is this true? Recruiting criminals to commit warcrimes. This war enters a new low.

Putin is recruiting prisoners with $3100 'bribe' to fight in Ukraine (msn.com)

it was in the NYT too. Their version had all sorts of pleasant details, and implied people were actually being severely threatened to sign up. They also said they wouldn't bother to return your corpse if you died. Seemed like an offer you couldn't refuse, even though you REALLY wanted too.

[CAZmaj]

3 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Well done sir!  I would do much the same in your place.

But let's dwell for a moment on 'your place.' As I noted a while ago, the productive heartland of Europe is about to move East. Poland plus Slovakia plus Ukraine plus Belarus creates a powerful pan-Slavic macroeconomic region of some 125 million living in spacious, climate-change-resistant river valleys with plentiful natural resources and well developed infrastructure.

 

No Czech Republic?

[sburke]

30 minutes ago, dan/california said:

it was in the NYT too. Their version had all sorts of pleasant details, and implied people were actually being severely threatened to sign up. They also said they wouldn't bother to return your corpse if you died. Seemed like an offer you couldn't refuse, even though you REALLY wanted too.

sounds like a perfect opportunity to sign up then defect - get out of jail card. 

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

sounds like a perfect opportunity to sign up then defect - get out of jail card. 

I think there are quite a few rather important details hiding in the - . About 27 different ways to get messily dead if things don't work out just so come to mind. Then there are the BAD options, where you really, really, wish one of those 27 had happened. But then again staying in a Russian prison is not a great plan either. I think a wise man once said "I wouldn't start from here."

[Battlefront.com]

59 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Is this true? Recruiting criminals to commit warcrimes. This war enters a new low.

Putin is recruiting prisoners with $3100 'bribe' to fight in Ukraine (msn.com)

Not a new low.  They've done this before, including in 2014 and probably beyond.

However, it does seem that they've broadened the range of prisoner they're willing to accept, paying (IIRC before they just dangled a pardon), and even threatening.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

I can't vouch for the accuracy of this map, but if it is accurate it shows how widespread the recent ammo dump destruction is.  Seems to include smaller depots as well as the huge ones.  Seems to have been a very carefully coordinated campaign:

 

[Battlefront.com]

In addition to the decoy barges posted around the Kerch bridge, they apparently just tested smoke screens.  It's akin to the Cope Cages on tanks because at this range Ukraine would be using GPS guided munitions anyway.  And if it did try using something that needs visuals, it would likely be over and done with before the smoke could be deployed:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/vp6j3n/russia_tests_covering_the_crimean_bridge_with/

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

In addition to the decoy barges posted around the Kerch bridge, they apparently just tested smoke screens.  It's akin to the Cope Cages on tanks because at this range Ukraine would be using GPS guided munitions anyway.  And if it did try using something that needs visuals, it would likely be over and done with before the smoke could be deployed:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/vp6j3n/russia_tests_covering_the_crimean_bridge_with/

Steve

Ukraine has limited equipment to hit that Bridge. Harpoon is the only one that comes to mind. No idea how good that is at hitting bridges...

around 300km to the frontline

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Ukraine has limited equipment to hit that Bridge. Harpoon is the only one that comes to mind. No idea how good that is at hitting bridges...

around 300km to the frontline

For now the defenses are "for show", but clearly Russia must be feeling some sort of concern that Ukraine will attempt some sort of attack.  The government has already announced that it will as soon as possible.  But it won't be ground based artillery of any sort, that's for sure.  By the time Ukraine got into range they'd have most of Crimea and that would likely only happen if Russia went into a civil war.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Some commentary on how Russia's Spring draft is going.  Apparently not very well, which isn't surprising:

 

[G.I. Joe]

Agent: Top NHL goalie prospect sent to Russian military base

[G.I. Joe]

14 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Thanks for the tanks!

Without wishing to derail the thread with discussion of old Polish TV shows again, I can't help noticing three tankers and a dog in front of the Polish-flagged T-72. Something tells me the homage is deliberate...

[Huba]

15 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Without wishing to derail the thread with discussion of old Polish TV shows again, I can't help noticing three tankers and a dog in front of the Polish-flagged T-72. Something tells me the homage is deliberate...

There were 4 tankers originally, but I guess that's hard to to with autoloader  The ERA on those Polish T-72s is a new Ukrainian/ Czech addition, I noticed they put it even on the lower front plate below the  upper glacis, which is a bit unusual I think.

And now for something completely different - somebody raised up to a challenge of tracking the various RU ammo dumps explosions. I'm not 100% sure this list is complete, but it's a nice reference anyway:

 

 

[poesel]

6 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

.As I noted a while ago, the productive heartland of Europe is about to move East.

No, why should it? The ‘industrial heartland’  of Europe goes from London through the Netherlands, Germany, Austria into northern Italy. That’s the big continuous line. 

There will be new areas in the CEE. Either those who have historically been there like Czech Republic, Krakow and Donbas or new ones.

Economics is not a zero sum game. The richer your neighbours / trading partners are, the richer you get yourself. I can very selfishly say, that I’m very happy about this development.

6 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Poland plus Slovakia plus Ukraine plus Belarus creates a powerful pan-Slavic macroeconomic region of some 125 million living in spacious, climate-change-resistant river valleys with plentiful natural resources and well developed infrastructure.

No region is resistant to climate change. Every region will change, some for better, some for worse.

Replace ‘well developed’ with ‘developing’. Eastern Europe has a long way to go to get to western standards. This is a very broad statement. Some regions in the east are better developed than some in the west. But generally this is true.

6 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

The one positive thing Communism left behind in Eastern Europe is excellent secondary polytechnic education, a byproduct of forced industrialisation. 

Yes. The importance of education cannot be overstated. Access to good, free education is the best long term investment a nation can make. Unfortunately, the long term part makes it so unpopular with politicians.

6 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

For all the old EU sneering about 'Polish plumbers', it's a backhand compliment to unfussy people who bring tangible, practical problem solving skills.

The plumber sentiment is a British thing. So yes, ‘old EU’ indeed.

These sentiments go away as soon as these population groups get the necessary education (skills & language) to work in higher paid jobs.

6 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

... All this region needs to thrive is to get the boot of outside imperialist overlords off its neck, whether it's Austrians, Germans, Muscovites, post-Soviet mafiyas, or anyone else. In fact, break the legs inside those boots as needed to make that point!

I hope this comment is meant in a long historical context…

6 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Ukrainians (and Poles) should keep rifles in their homes for a generation, with localities maintaining armouries of AT weapons. Well ordered militias, bedrock of  diversified, no-nonsense republics.

The only place I know where this worked out is Switzerland. 
If you need militias to keep your government in check, you are doing something wrong. And that is all I’m going to say about this.

6 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

...And we shall see what kind of economic order can grow from that base. I personally believe great things are possible.

Yes, indeed.

[panzermartin]

Re the prisoner thing. To be totally fair, Ukraine did this as well in the early days of the war

 

[Zeleban]

11 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Что касается заключенного. Справедливости ради, Украина в первые дни войны тоже так делала.

 

 

The fundamental difference is that Zelensky did this with respect to former participants in the ATO, those who have real combat experience, and not all prisoners in a row