How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Missed this while I was BBQ'ing on the 4th.  This is from ISW:

Quote

Putin met with Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu on July 4 to discuss recent Russian gains in Luhansk Oblast and presented Colonel General Alexander Lapin and Major General Esedulla Abachev with the “Hero of Russia” award for their leadership during the Lysychansk operation. Putin and Shoigu presented the capture of Lysychansk and Luhansk Oblast as a major victory for Russian forces in Ukraine.

Holy crap.  This is like in America where your kid shows up and gets a trophy no matter how inconsequential the game was or his performance in it.  Or in this case showing up to a battle not totally drunk and incompetent.  Cripes, this is like presenting a Medal of Honor to General Bradley for taking some town in France that nobody thought was a big deal before the invasion and nobody considered a big deal after.  One wonders what Putin would have done if these guys actually took one of their prewar objectives, like Kyiv.  I mean, there's only so many strippers and cocaine a general can deal with, right?

Lysychansk was one of the lamest battles of this war so far, mostly because Ukraine voluntarily and proactively withdrew before there was much of a fight.  But I guess since Russia didn't spend months trying to crawl over its own dead to take it, I suppose it sorta is a major victory for Russia despite Ukraine's forces successfully withdrawing from it before the TikTok warriors took it over.

OK, I had to get that out of my system.  This is sorta group therapy for military historians.  Thanks for listening

Aside from the obvious idiocy of the awards themselves, this is an indication that Putin's getting to wind down operations at least in the Luhansk area.  "We came, we saw, we occupied, and we gave out bits of metal... nothing more needs to be done".

Steve

[Homo_Ferricus]

Page 1000 incoming... I think it's only right to mark this milestone with a bone  

[Battlefront.com]

Here's an interesting article written by an interesting American volunteer, COL(R) Andrew Milburn.  He's one of the guys running the Mozart Group that helps train Ukrainians (TD in particular).

https://mwi.usma.edu/time-is-not-on-kyivs-side-training-weapons-and-attrition-in-ukraine/

 

The primary gist of this article is detailing the Human cost of this war on the Ukrainian side.  There's a lot of useful information in the article and some of it the "ugly underbelly" that we don't normally see.  He's there, he's got the experience to understand what's going on, and he's plugged into the war very directly as few other foreigners are.  And yet... maybe he's too close to his subject to properly advise on the bigger picture?

This was posted about a week ago and he stated:

Quote

It will be weeks, however, before HIMARS is fielded in sufficient quantity to have a significant effect

He is correct to say "sufficient quantity" is going to take a while as most of the systems promised are still in route.  But weeks before HIMRAS has a "significant effect"?  I guess that depends on definition or perspective.  Is this having an impact on the fighting in the Severodonetsk bulge?  No, but battle was largely played out by the time his article posted.  Ukraine is obviously looking beyond it already and towards a systemic blow to Russia's capacity to keep the war going. 

On that point, it appears HIMRAS is already part of a significant impact on Russia's supplies to keep their side of the war going.  The hammering of the airport and dumps in Melitopol was supposedly done using HIMMRS from a distance of perhaps 85km (which, if true, indicates they got some of the longer range missiles):

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/vqpjxn/russian_airfield_flattened_by_himars_in_melitopol/

https://news.yahoo.com/russians-suffer-200-dead-300-140200129.html

I don't know how long it will take to get more systems in service, but the 4 that are operating now seem to be making a significant contribution already.  We also know that Ceasar and M777s are having a significant impact for weeks now, yet he didn't mention the former and only somewhat derisively mentioned the latter.

Then there's this point which seems to be biased towards his personal experience and not a broader view:

Quote

The extremely centralized execution of artillery fire in the Ukrainian army makes for some effective fires for effect, such as the recent one that struck several Russian generals, but is not very responsive to the needs of frontline units.

This is at odds with all kinds of other sources, including Westerners and the hundreds of videos we've seen uploaded by Ukrainian sources.  If anything Ukraine's artillery has been too decentralized with guns normally operating in ones and twos.  My buddy that just returned from the front was looking at this aspect in particular and was very pleased with how low level and responsive the artillery was for the unit he visited.  So this could be a case of personal experiences as Milburn is supporting TD for the most part (from what I can tell) and those guys don't have artillery as an organic component of their units or the ability to direct fires themselves.  In that case they do have to rely upon centralized systems.

This is one that really raised my eyebrows.  There are several references to Russia's access to manpower as if Russia's theoretical capacity, and it's stated goals, are in any way realistic.  Take these two comments for example:

Quote

Of course, the Russians continue to take even higher casualties, but with their vastly greater pool of manpower, it is unlikely that these losses will have a significant impact—at least not in the short term.

...

Credible reports from Meduza, a Russian-language news site based in Latvia, indicate that Kyiv is back in the crosshairs and that there is now renewed support within the Kremlin for another onslaught on the capital. And there are reports of renewed military activity on the Russian side of the border to the north, the most likely origin of an assault on the capital.

I take significant exception to the first one and won't bother saying why as we have discussed the exact opposite for weeks now.

As for a potential attack on Kyiv, there is no indication that Russia could mount such a campaign with its depleted forces, not to mention succeed where a heavy concentration of its best units got slaughtered and retreated.  I think being on guard for a surprise attack is prudent, but it's mentioned in this article as if there's some sort of impending disaster on the horizon.  If Russia tried to mount a second attack that might actually be a good thing as it is way beyond Russia's capacity to pull off successfully.  It will likely suffer a second and even more humiliating defeat if it tries this again, so why phrase it as something to be glum about?

And lastly, a pretty pointless/flawed historical example for "perspective":

Quote

Every day in the current fighting, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said earlier this month, around sixty to one hundred Ukrainian soldiers are killed and another five hundred wounded in combat. A more recent New York Times article puts that figure much higher—at one hundred to two hundred deaths a day. To put that in context, during the 1968 Tet offensive in Vietnam, one of the bloodiest periods of the war, US deaths were roughly two hundred a week—and among a force almost twice the size of the Ukrainian army.

I'm not sure what context he had in mind when he brought up that example, but I can't make sense of it.  Oh, I think I know what he wanted his point to be (e.g. Ukraine's % of battlefield casualties is so much worse than the US'), but how is that relevant?  He even stated that Russia is doing even worse in this department.  Plus, if we want to talk about numbers, the US lost about 1500 soldiers a day for the Normandy campaign and it went on to win the war.

In conclusion... I think it is always useful to examine good quality reporting by good quality authors with a critical eye. It's necessary for reconciling different, sometimes contradictory, information from other sources.

Steve

[dan/california]

55 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's an interesting article written by an interesting American volunteer, COL(R) Andrew Milburn.  He's one of the guys running the Mozart Group that helps train Ukrainians (TD in particular).

https://mwi.usma.edu/time-is-not-on-kyivs-side-training-weapons-and-attrition-in-ukraine/

 

The primary gist of this article is detailing the Human cost of this war on the Ukrainian side.  There's a lot of useful information in the article and some of it the "ugly underbelly" that we don't normally see.  He's there, he's got the experience to understand what's going on, and he's plugged into the war very directly as few other foreigners are.  And yet... maybe he's too close to his subject to properly advise on the bigger picture?

This was posted about a week ago and he stated:

He is correct to say "sufficient quantity" is going to take a while as most of the systems promised are still in route.  But weeks before HIMRAS has a "significant effect"?  I guess that depends on definition or perspective.  Is this having an impact on the fighting in the Severodonetsk bulge?  No, but battle was largely played out by the time his article posted.  Ukraine is obviously looking beyond it already and towards a systemic blow to Russia's capacity to keep the war going. 

On that point, it appears HIMRAS is already part of a significant impact on Russia's supplies to keep their side of the war going.  The hammering of the airport and dumps in Melitopol was supposedly done using HIMMRS from a distance of perhaps 85km (which, if true, indicates they got some of the longer range missiles):

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/vqpjxn/russian_airfield_flattened_by_himars_in_melitopol/

https://news.yahoo.com/russians-suffer-200-dead-300-140200129.html

I don't know how long it will take to get more systems in service, but the 4 that are operating now seem to be making a significant contribution already.  We also know that Ceasar and M777s are having a significant impact for weeks now, yet he didn't mention the former and only somewhat derisively mentioned the latter.

Then there's this point which seems to be biased towards his personal experience and not a broader view:

This is at odds with all kinds of other sources, including Westerners and the hundreds of videos we've seen uploaded by Ukrainian sources.  If anything Ukraine's artillery has been too decentralized with guns normally operating in ones and twos.  My buddy that just returned from the front was looking at this aspect in particular and was very pleased with how low level and responsive the artillery was for the unit he visited.  So this could be a case of personal experiences as Milburn is supporting TD for the most part (from what I can tell) and those guys don't have artillery as an organic component of their units or the ability to direct fires themselves.  In that case they do have to rely upon centralized systems.

This is one that really raised my eyebrows.  There are several references to Russia's access to manpower as if Russia's theoretical capacity, and it's stated goals, are in any way realistic.  Take these two comments for example:

I take significant exception to the first one and won't bother saying why as we have discussed the exact opposite for weeks now.

As for a potential attack on Kyiv, there is no indication that Russia could mount such a campaign with its depleted forces, not to mention succeed where a heavy concentration of its best units got slaughtered and retreated.  I think being on guard for a surprise attack is prudent, but it's mentioned in this article as if there's some sort of impending disaster on the horizon.  If Russia tried to mount a second attack that might actually be a good thing as it is way beyond Russia's capacity to pull off successfully.  It will likely suffer a second and even more humiliating defeat if it tries this again, so why phrase it as something to be glum about?

And lastly, a pretty pointless/flawed historical example for "perspective":

I'm not sure what context he had in mind when he brought up that example, but I can't make sense of it.  Oh, I think I know what he wanted his point to be (e.g. Ukraine's % of battlefield casualties is so much worse than the US'), but how is that relevant?  He even stated that Russia is doing even worse in this department.  Plus, if we want to talk about numbers, the US lost about 1500 soldiers a day for the Normandy campaign and it went on to win the war.

In conclusion... I think it is always useful to examine good quality reporting by good quality authors with a critical eye. It's necessary for reconciling different, sometimes contradictory, information from other sources.

Steve

Permit me a bit of COMPLETE speculation. No one in the Western world has fought a war anything like this since 1945. And in a lot of ways even the worst of WW2 wasn't this intense of the U.S.. The Colonel is watching people he trained a month ago die in significant numbers, he is training more units that he nows knows with brutal certainty will be committed to the same kind of combat. As outstanding as his military education and prior service has been, it just didn't prepare him for this.

No one east of the Rhine has faced anything like this 1918, it has to be a terrible burden to be doing all he can and yet be unable to keep all the people he is training alive. he is more than allowed to have a bad attitude. He knows in his bones the price the Ukrainians are paying to boil the frog slowly. The Ukrainians keep going because the Russians have made it utterly clear that they can die in battle, or after the Russians have destroyed everything they hold dear and made them watch.

The Colonel deserves our absolute respect for showing up and doing everything he can. He is more than forgiven for feeling less than cheerful about it. The Ukrainians deserve essentially unlimited and unconditional support for taking on this fight, and MAYBE, just MAYBE keeping the 21st century from going off the rails as badly as the 20th did. The very least the rest of us can do is annoy the BLEEP out of or elected representatives to send everything that can be sent as fast as the logistics channels can move it. Voting Scholz right out of the building would be an excellent place to start. Remember NATO can end this end in three days if it is willing to call the Russians bluff about starting WW3. My opinion is that it clearly IS a bluff. The Russians haven't doubled down and started shooting at Polish supply points after at least sixty thousand casualties and perhaps twice that, it isn't even clear that they know how many. Since most of the wars in history have started over one hundredth that level of provocation, it is pretty clear to me they don't want to start one. 

One guys opinion, thanks for reading it if you made it this far. WRITE YOUR CONGRESSPERSON/MP.

[Taranis]

Hey guys, this is HISTORY under our eyes ! 

 

 

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Hey guys, this is HISTORY under our eyes ! 

 

 

Great, now get those guys clear. the place just a target!

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

As for a potential attack on Kyiv, there is no indication that Russia could mount such a campaign with its depleted forces, not to mention succeed where a heavy concentration of its best units got slaughtered and retreated.  I think being on guard for a surprise attack is prudent, but it's mentioned in this article as if there's some sort of impending disaster on the horizon.  If Russia tried to mount a second attack that might actually be a good thing as it is way beyond Russia's capacity to pull off successfully.  It will likely suffer a second and even more humiliating defeat if it tries this again, so why phrase it as something to be glum about?

The assumptions about "renewed optimism on Kremlin", "push on Kyiv being on the table again" and "West to tire of Ukraine" are based on Medusa report article from May 27th (linked in the article). To remind ourselves what was going on then - Russians finally pushed UA from all the areas on the left bank of Donets, were pushing on Severodonetsk and consolidating breakout in Popasna. It was still a time of infamous Macron's calls to Putins before "three stooges" visit to Kyiv, before UE giving it a candidate status, and before NATO Madrid summit. 

It's understandable that somebody in the Kremlin allowed himself to feel good about the situation at that point, but during June A LOT has changed in UA favour and the listed reasons from RU optimism are gone.

 

As for the casualties, I imagine that hardly anybody in the West was mentally ready to witness the scale of destruction and losses that happens in this war, it was not supposed to happen again. Author is obviously shocked by this on personal level - completely understandable and I feel for him, for what it's worth. It does not help however in seeing the bigger picture, in a emotionless, calculated manner.

 

[Huba]

22 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Great, now get those guys clear. the place just a target!

I say keep the S300 battery  on the shore ready, and an air-patrol on standby. Wait for inevitable RU bombing run and get at them. If they manage to bomb the flag, replant it and repeat.

If you find somebody brave enough, a few guys with a Starstreak hidden somewhere in the rubble on the island would be a nice addition to that trap.

Edit: it seems RU sensed the trap and are firing missiles at the island, not doing bombing runs:

 

Edited July 7, 2022 by Huba

[Taranis]

31 minutes ago, Huba said:

Les hypothèses sur "un regain d'optimisme à l'égard du Kremlin", "faire en sorte que Kiev soit à nouveau sur la table" et "l'Occident se lasse de l'Ukraine" sont basées sur l'article du rapport Medusa du 27 mai ( lié dans l'article ). Pour nous rappeler ce qui se passait alors - les Russes ont finalement repoussé l'UA de toutes les zones de la rive gauche du Donets, poussaient sur Severodonetsk et consolidaient l'évasion à Popasna. C'était encore l'époque des infâmes appels de Macron à Poutine avant la visite des "trois comparses" à Kyiv, avant que l'UE ne lui accorde le statut de candidat et avant le sommet de l'OTAN à Madrid. 

Il est compréhensible que quelqu'un au Kremlin se soit permis de se sentir bien dans la situation à ce moment-là, mais en juin, BEAUCOUP a changé en faveur de l'UA et les raisons énumérées de l'optimisme du RU ont disparu.

 

Quant aux pertes, j'imagine que presque personne en Occident n'était mentalement prêt à assister à l'ampleur des destructions et des pertes qui se produisent dans cette guerre, cela n'était pas censé se reproduire. L'auteur est évidemment choqué par cela sur le plan personnel - tout à fait compréhensible et je ressens pour lui, pour ce que ça vaut. Cela n'aide cependant pas à voir la situation dans son ensemble, d'une manière calculée et sans émotion.

 

It reminds me a bit of the end of WW2 when Hitler was convinced that the Anglo-American Allies would quarrel and separate and then the same with the Communists. He was sure and certain that it was imminent but it never happened... The proof that basing your strategy on an event that is not certain is completely stupid. But hey, after all there are the strippers all that all that...

[Grigb]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

...I do not know how moronic the Duma is on the whole.

As the whole Duma is moronic/corrupt (quite few of them say stupid things because they got paid to say that. They are not that dumb in real life). 

Russian Federation was never intended to be democratic country. It was always intended to be democratic enough to be seen as one. But at least initially Duma had some power so it attracted not only clowns like Zhirinovsky but some normal politicians like Nemtsov as well.

When Putin came to power that was fixed, so Duma became a complete clown show. Imagine all sorts of freaks who have big salaries and have really nothing to do. I mean cocaine and strippers can do only so much... So, they snort, go to journalists, say stupid stuff, watch everybody discuss it, feel important and go to strippers like @BlackMoria said. Actually, for a RU citizen they have a very successful life.

But I need to add that apparently, they feel  Putin plan is a bluff of confrontation with everybody. So, they say stupid things that look confrontational but there is no substance behind them.

Few Fun Facts - Duma and drugs

Quote

The correspondents of the program went through the toilets of our parliament and took samples from toilet seats and toilet covers to examine them for the presence of narcotic substances. The result was stunning: 75% of the samples showed a positive result. There were traces of cocaine everywhere...

Drug use by Russian officials and [Duma] deputies has its own tradition. Suffice to recall how the deputies of the Supreme Council of Russia caught the speaker of the lower house of parliament Ruslan Khasbulatov using drugs right at the workplace. And once, when he tried to conduct a meeting from his place in the presidium in a deranged state, deputy doctor Bella Denisenko demanded to immediately examine him with a narcologist. Which, of course, she was denied...

The newspaper "Top Secret" published an article about the now dead member of Parliament Denis Voronenkov. There, the correspondent, in particular, interviews Voronenkov's former assistant in the Duma, and this is what he tells:

– In my opinion, Voronenkov was a fairly large cocaine dealer. Almost half of the State Duma snorted coke, which was supplied by Voronenkov… Well, half of it is, of course, more a figure of speech, but the fact that many deputies and high–ranking officials got used to the powder is a fact, and I am a direct witness to that and, frankly, I myself once or twice took advantage of Voronenkov's "generosity".

According to the deputy's aide, many in the State Duma "pulled off" cocaine, considering the narcotic high more refined, noble compared to the usual alcoholic intoxication. Therefore, Voronenkov, according to the newspaper, was nicknamed Chumila in parliamentary circles (let me remind you, that's what cocaine was called in Soviet Russia)...

For the description and in-depth study of the current Russian regime, perhaps, we need not political scientists, but narcologists. It seems to me that we will find many solutions in this area.

 

Some Duma clowns are not just freaks. They are actually FSB paid freaks.  Infamous Zhirinovsky was one of them.

Quote

Closer to March, [cadidates to Moscow duma 1989-1990] began their meetings with voters . There were nine candidates, and a general meeting was arranged for all of us in the theater building in Sokolniki. That was the first time I heard Zhirinovsky perform [he was author's neighbor but they did not speak much]. He twice broke into the scene as an ordinary Sokolniki resident. The first time he got out to ask me a tricky question: do I consider cooperation with radio station Svoboda a betrayal of the Motherland. The head of the Sokolniki KGB, L.N. Sopelkin, competed with me there, and Zhirinovsky, as I understood, was in his support group. In any case, Vladimir Volfovich took the stage for the second time with these words: "On behalf of the residents of the Sokolniki district, I propose to support Lev Nikolaevich Sopelkin, who is doing so much for our neighborhood." He kept silent about the position of this comrade. And then he came to all the meetings, to all the addresses, and always talked about the great contribution to the life of Lev Nikolaevich's district...

I also saw his son and felt sorry for Vladimir Wolfovich: his son was about 17 years old, but drooling uncontrollably from his mouth, and with snot from his nose, he did not speak, but mumbled something. I thought he was a disabled child. Vladimir Volfovich himself was then as poor as a church mouse.

And wow: a year later, Vladimir Volfovich was already running for president of Russia. Soon he became a deputy, and then dragged his moron son after him. The younger Zhirik became a deputy at the age of 27. In 2000, he was already the head of the LDPR faction, and now he is already a whole deputy Chairman of the State Duma, and even a doctor of some sciences. At the same time, the son and father, without working in business for a second, very quickly became fabulously rich.

Navalny today published a post about his son's 440-meter apartment in Dubai, which he bought for three million bucks, not specified in the declaration: HERE. Why am I not surprised?

 

[fireship4]

Quote

 

 

 

[Cederic]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/07/06/zelensky-criticises-top-general-imposing-restrictions-army-recruits/

 

Edited July 7, 2022 by Cederic

[Huba]

Told ya! Lithuania will not budge on blocking transit of sanctioned goods to Kaliningrad. Apparently there was some pressure, but apart from suspiciously coordinated articles in various media, it seems it wasn't very serious.

https://bb-cntv.com/news/lithuania-refused-to-open-green-corridors-to-kaliningrad-87998/

 

Also, it looks like GMLRS floodgates are opening, though I didn't see any other confirmation yet:

 

Edited July 7, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

18 minutes ago, Huba said:

Told ya! Lithuania will not budge on blocking transit of sanctioned goods to Kaliningrad. Apparently there was some pressure, but apart from suspiciously coordinated articles in various media, it seems it wasn't very serious.

I was waiting for EU-RU Kaliningrad deal happing at Mon-Wed as partial explanation of RU sudden loss of interest in Snake island. But now I admit I was wrong - deal did not happen. UKR side should get all the credit for kicking RU out of the island. 

[LongLeftFlank]

18 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Just to add something to these discussions on Old/"New" EU countries- subsidies paid to 2004 members are only one side of "package deal". The other was wide access to cheap labour, new markets in fast developing economy, and relative drainage of talents (but with mutual benefits, as specialized cadres flocked to CEE) on part of Central-Eastern Europeans.

So no, subsidies are no "money for poor brothers" nor new "Marshall Plan"- they are part of multi-level transaction in ways which your graph does not show. Long-term investment, if you prefer, that to this day is very beneficial for western economies, industry and businessess, especially German.

Thank you.

1. As someone who has spent most of his adult life working in Asian emerging markets, watching some flourish and others flail, I would personally invest capital east of the Oder and north of the Danube.

2. As you note, 'Old Europe's' private sector is very much investing that way too, even more urgently today as it seeks alternative 'workshops' to an increasingly sharp dealing and high handed China.

3. All the human capital, knowhow, work ethic and other resources are in place to rapidly stand up Europe's new tech manufacturing hub. Over the next 25 years -- not overnight! as some here seem to have strangely misread my post -- that will entail a rebalancing of wealth and power eastward. However, it will likely take 2 generations before Ukrainians live as well on average as Frenchmen. Nonetheless, standards of living will improve noticeably.

4. Providing skilled labour to Greater Europe at competitive but rising cost for a time (a la ASEAN) is one thing. But if Bruxelles Eurocrats also demand they throw open their borders to (and compete with) millions of migrants from the Global South flocking into their cities, that will most definitely *not* be on.  A middle class society and open borders simply aren't reconcilable, sorry.  If there is going to be a substratum of low cost migrant workers, let them come in from Russia over time and take the new ethic home with them.

[LongLeftFlank]

Nein nein nein!

 

 

[The_Capt]

Just now, LongLeftFlank said:

Nein nein nein!

 

 

Now that takes one back.

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers walk through rubble following an airstrike, in the center of Kramatorsk, July 7, 2022. MIGUEL MEDINA / AFP"

[Grigb]

There is new Murz rant. Every emotional as well - seems to be still feeling the pain from all recent warehouses strikes.

Unlike the previous one this one is more interesting. I decided to fully translate it. But you do not need to read it if you got tired of realistic assessment of RU MOD intellectual capabilities (Yes, they are really bad. RU grassroot volunteers is a different matter altogether). Basically, it is part of the ongoing RU Nats debate about extremely poor RU MOD performance and lack of RU state will to reform it. Funny thing - RU Nats are stuck now. They understand that the whole system is rotten [took them only 20 years and the war] and that RU state is not going to reform it. But cannot suggest replacing it "from the bottom" aka Maidan [only UKR pigs make Maidan against corrupt and rotten state, Glorius Russians s*ck it to the end]. Their conclusion (including Murz) - RU is heading toward uncontrollable 1917 rebellion and civil war [RU revolt is senseless and merciless as Pushkin said or African scenario as @The_Capt said].

 

Quote

Dear Rostislav!

It's not that someone somewhere [RU MOD] has not learned the experience of the Great Patriotic War.
The fact is that THEY CANNOT LEARN.
Well, it happened. We have to put up with this and somehow learn to live.
And we lived with much more worse than that. We are Russians people, we'll come up with something somehow.
They don't want to learn, they won't learn.
It is forbidden, strictly, strictly, firmly, firmly.

They formed the 90th Tank Division in 2016-2017.
Without enough infantry? HA! Take it higher!
WITHOUT UAV SERVICE.
A tank division. Without regular army drones.
I do not know why my eyes did not leak out when I read this, but it is so.
It's like giving birth to a ferocious merciless shark with huge jaws by long selection, but making it blind and with an eternal cold.
AND THEY DID IT!

And this (no need to hide it any more) what akela2017 [Volunter] rushed to fix, and even succeeded - the pupils of the KPTSN [volunteer] courses from the 90th with the quadcopters issued to them successfully participated in the closure of the "Lisichansky boiler".[As I said previously, RU regulars are learning  from volunteers UKR civilian drones tactics. Recent surprise and successful attack of 90th is a testament that while RU MOD is bad (no military drones by default) volunteers can compensate it to the extend using available civilian drones] 

So, those who came up with the idea that there should be no UAV service in the tank division formed in 2016-2017,

THEY CANNOT LEARN!!!!

Before their eyes, a full-scale experiment was taking place on the use of BTGr "with a bias towards tanks" in modern warfare. Not against the dick understand what [poor insurgent bands], but against the more or less mobilized Ukrainian army in the winter of 2014-2015. They formed the August OMB [Battalion] consisting of four tank companies, one motorized rifle company, a reconnaissance platoon, an ISV, an anti-aircraft platoon, a communications platoon and a support platoon. With its own artillery - with a battery of 6 self-propelled guns "Gvozdika" and a battery of 6 "Grads". The result? After stretching during the transfer through several intermediate bases (right before the operation), the rear of the battalion safely "devoured" most of the motorized infantry on guard duty. Well, we want surprise, don't we? We want to! Let's do it like this, then like this, and then like this! And suddenly the End happens. **** [let's forget] refueling a tank column by the buckets due to the fact that the only tanker is faulty, (not for the first time), but for 13 or 14 tanks going into the first attack, we had one platoon of infantry, those same "Chisa" [nickname of Scouts commander] scouts, and the "lich" [personal guard] of the battalion commander. What happened with the second attack, on the VOP [UKR Platoon defensive position] beyond Sanzharovka, is well known [Big screw up. I can translate it as needed but AFAIR they made unsupported tanks attack overrunning UKR platoon position but losing several tanks in the process due to short range AT fire and reatreated afterwards]. I saw the first motorized riflemen (who were released from the guard duty) at Sanzharovka after our best tanks and tankmen were killed, shot by dagger [cross] fire from an RPG in an attack into which they were thrown without infantry cover. Roma "Iron" was sitting on the bench with his RPK and envied my decathlon gloves with a folding mitt.

Who threw them into this attack? As I have already said, among the other bonds that still hold me in this world, there is one very important one. When it's all over (or somewhat earlier) I really need to take Mr. "Vladlen Tatarsky" [RU propagandist but also useful field reporter] by the throat, literally, and ask which of his "curators" told him and asked him to spread it that the tanks at Sanzharovka died because they had no communication [Murz is mainly comms guy. He is not bad at that]. There was a connection, I made it. I,  Violinist, Cold, Ruslan the Bear. Battalion Commander Kostin led the fight on the radio station of his armored personnel carrier, I was there next to him at the beginning of the battle. The battle was heard by the KSHMKA [Command and Staff Vehicle] of the battalion headquarters at Annovka [village]. And the scouts had a P-159, and it was set up properly, and the batteries were charged.

The "red arrow" [attacking LDNR units] broke off in the flank and rear of the Debale [Debaltsevo] from the LNR, the Mongol, Bibik and the rest died because some untrained cretin [that was RU regular advising officer. He was not dismissed for debacle but was given an award and entered RU mil academy. True story] decided that it was possible to attack the VOP with tanks, without infantry. And this untrained cretin gave such an order - to attack with tanks immediately, not caring about the readiness of the infantry to attack.

Contrary to popular opinion, I am not an aggressive person at all, and I asked Vladlen in a good way, he is silent. I'll have to ask in a bad way on occasion. Who, after all, is spreading lies about those events so the truth would die together with Kostin, who died in prison. Who is this amazing [euphemism for swearing] man who, having hung the failure under Sanzharovka on Kostin, went further up the service? [Implying RU generals are actively whitewashing their epic screw ups learning nothing from them. What a surprise!]

So, going back from the particular to the general state of things...

Rostislav, they [RU MOD] cannot be trained there! CAN-NOT-BE-TRAIN-ED!

With a rare, rare and often temporary exception.
Because the demonstration of intelligence and learning ability is punishable and very severely - the higher the position, the tougher.
"Look how high you've climbed, you ****ing smartass!"
And people who somehow got into the army with brains, for years, decades have to pretend to be loud idiots, so that God forbid no one suspects anything wrong.  [Yep, this is how The System works - even if you are smart and got there the system will either break you or spit you out. I watched it for two years, got the same feeling and left]

Our civil leadership of the country methodically led it to [new] 1913 and rejoiced when it reached. Crimea has been returned! Ah, the King! Ah, Tavrichesky [reference to Putin infamous secret Palace akin to Tsar Tauride Palace]!

Now the military leadership, which does not tolerate competition in moronism, does not tolerate second place in the moron competition (ONLY GOLD! ONLY THE DARWIN PRIZE!), methodically leads the country to the new 1917.

And then [we] will be surprised. How did it happen that way? [For what our past deed] we are suffering now? 

Last thing I would like to mention - the rant is Murz's reply to Rostislav Morkenko rant. Rostislav is interesting RU tactical author. He is Girkin kind of man - being nobody (he is not even from military, but Police background, probably militarized prison camp guards) he managed to become a well-known due to apparent talent. But unlike Girkin (who is well known for his practical work of igniting the war in 2014), Rostislav can be considered as unofficial modern RU tactical theoretician.

If you can find his [Defence of] Gadukin Bridge (and historical Bloody Sand) I strongly recommend reading it. It is RU modern and extended versions of classical Defence of the duffer's drift with some time travel. I believe once translated it will be studied by NATO as an notable example RU modern, competent and creative BMP-3 platoon tactics (and by approximation any RU mech-motorized platoon).

Guys who want to study what to expect from competent RU commander - the title is Гадюкинский мост, или Девять жизней лейтенанта Суровова. The only disadvantage is it was written before the appearance of drones at platoon level. 

Edited July 7, 2022 by Grigb

[riptides]

43 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Now that takes one back.

When I hear that song it is attached to a favorite movie of mine - "Atomic Blond".

An interesting movie about spies during the time about the end of the cold war.

[hcrof]

25 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Their conclusion (including Murz) - RU is heading toward uncontrollable 1917 rebellion and civil war [RU revolt is senseless and merciless as Pushkin said or African scenario as @The_Capt said].

Interesting quote, thanks! 

What is your assessment of the 1917 scenario? Is it hot air like those in America expecting imminent civil war or is there actually an alternative power structure that could challenge the state but is not able to carry out a quick coup?

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Interesting quote, thanks! 

What is your assessment of the 1917 scenario? Is it hot air like those in America expecting imminent civil war or is there actually an alternative power structure that could challenge the state but is not able to carry out a quick coup?

And on top of that, do you envision a scenario where after a coup RU armies keep steady? I imagine even few days of political uncertainty could be catastrophic to them, but what's your take on that?

[Beleg85]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zt6TEsdXd1U

Short but interesting interview by Operator Starsky with female Ukrainian squad commander. There are some snippets about how Russian fought at Rubizhne. And good deal of laugh at TikTok Commando ('We heard some shooting and explosions behind their lines...we knew the Chechens started recording new movies").

Interesting is that this girl seem to be serve as common infantry sergeant on frontlines, not medic/staff officer as many women in uniforms do. It's curious how common it is in Ukrainian army.

Edited July 7, 2022 by Beleg85

[pintere]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zt6TEsdXd1U

Short but interesting interview by Operator Starsky with female Ukrainian squad commander. There are some snippets about how Russian fought at Rubizhne. And good deal of laugh at TikTok Commando ('We heard some shooting and explosions behind their lines...we knew the Chechens started recording new movies").

Interesting is that this girl seem to be serve as common infantry sergeant on frontlines, not medic/staff officer as many women in uniforms do. It's curious how common it is in Ukrainian army.

Well you definitely shouldn’t be passing up capable soldiers who are willing to fight, male or female.

[Huba]

Found the source of the information about increased number of GMLRS launchers. According to Danilov, there are 9 "HIMARS or similar systems", meaning that some M270 are threre too. 9 in an odd number though, there were 4 + 4  M142, and 3 + 3 +3 M270s pledged, it doesn't add. Perhaps one M142 is being used for training? Videos of HIMARS in Ukraine showed 3 launchers AFAIR.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-tactical-shift-in-ukraine-raises-prospect-of-protracted-war-11657106436