How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

Russians Fear Commanders Are Selling Their Own Troops’ Locations for Cash (thedailybeast.com)

That's gotta be good for morale.

[Vet 0369]

5 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russians Fear Commanders Are Selling Their Own Troops’ Locations for Cash (thedailybeast.com)

That's gotta be good for morale.

LOL, PsyOps at work! Start a rumor and watch it roll.

[FancyCat]

Ugh, horrible someone could get conscripted into fighting their own country.

 

[dan/california]

This will be the least cohesive battalion in Mobik history.

[dan/california]

There are some great scenarios to be made about this fight when and if we ever get any details. 

Edit: And getting the Russians to attack at the absolute far end of their logistical system is a great way to thin them out. Also, why is the lower bridge over the Dnipro still there?

 

Edited July 5, 2022 by dan/california

[Endyamon]

3 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

The most madding aspect of this war to me is the delusion the Russian nationalists/imperialists/knuckle draggers have that they still can "win" this war, despite all evidence across a wide spectrum on a wide range of metrics that it simply isn't going to happen.  Russian isn't a great power anymore - it has not met that definition pre-Feb 24 and even less so now.  That is got to be some fantastic 100 proof hooch that is being served up in tanker trucks that is being swilled in the power structures of Russia to continue to believe that all their stated objectives will be met by their beaten to crap army.  Completely ignore that the expected 3 day op and a parade in Kiev is now 4+ months in.  And everything is 'going to plan' we keep hearing from Kremlin talking heads.  It is like they are snorting lines of coke off of a stripper's ass and then getting in front of a camera and proclaiming everything is going as planned and victory is just around the corner....yeah, right <eye roll>.

Except that dream is a nightmare now.  Except they don't see it or accept it.  And the dying on all sides just goes on and on.

https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2022/07/05/leuropa-ha-finito-le-armi-per-sostenere-kiev-la-russia-ha-ancora-riserve-da-vendere-nato-allargata-si-da-un-pretesto-a-mosca-lanalisi/6649637/

Maybe a little "off topic", but as you can read in this italian article, many "italian experts" still believe that Russian has tons and tons of weapons to use, while whole Europe soon will have no more weapons to send. The title literally says "Europe has run out of weapons to support Kiev. Russia still has reserves to sell. Enlarged NATO? A pretext is given to Moscow"

A part from this "expert", the fact that this newspaper is anti-american and anti-nato can be a problem, since this newspaper is financed by a party that is in the italian parliament and has some ministers of the current government.

 

[Machor]

So much for the 'NATO threat' - Russian troops no longer needed on the Finnish border:

Ukrainians using PTS-2 - Soviet equivalent of the LVT - in the retreat from Severodonetsk; it was Vietnam in the air, the Pacific on the ground:

Motorized Infantry, 2022:

[Machor]

I'm starting to think we were wrong to call Putin 'Putler'... we should be calling him 'Putini' instead, remembering how Fascist Italy was able to take Ethiopia and Albania after great effort and losses, and had to be bailed out by Nazi Germany in Greece and North Africa.

[Huba]

All right guys, this is a post where I spill my guts in quite an emotional manner, please move along if your're not up for it.

I'll start with stating that I'm really fond of this community that I accidentally found thanks to @Der Zeitgeist. While we differ in perception of some minutiae of the events unraveling in front of us, we all seem to share the same view on whats right and moral in this context. And that is really a lot, more that I could expect from most of my average 'real', 'physical' acquaintances.

For my whole life, since I was an 8 years old kid listening to my grandpa's war tales, I was deeply interested in all things military related. It is easy to get a young boy interested  in this kind of stuff - the power, the agency, the feeling of purpose this provides is unmatched by anything else in the world. Of course  when you're still an adolescent, your understanding of what war/ armed conflict means cannot be deep enough. As I was entering my adulthood, even studying military history academically, I grew to hate the very notion of armed conflict and violence. I guess getting the real grasp of what war means to a regular person was too much to me at this point. I retained my interest, but didn't really pursue it apart from theoretical knowledge. Especially, I dodged the last years of draft i Poland - neither me, nor Polish civil society in general was really ready for it in early 2000's. I was living my life happily since then, like if "The End of History" was and undisputed fact of life.

And it really changed with the start of war in Ukraine. I could easily picture myself in the position of average Kyiv or Kharkiv citizen, a guy in his late 30s, with a reasonable career in IT, concentrated on making a living for his wife and young kids, who is suddenly confronted with the need to physically fight for all that is important for him. 

Of course, in this great community we mostly  concentrate of relatively coldly analysing what is going on, trying to get a grasp of events the way a historian narrates the Battle of Kursk - it is of course THE WAY to practically understand the events and be able to draw conclusions. That's how a commander should look at it, putting his feeling aside. This however isn't the only way to talk about war, especially it isn't the only "right" way to do so. 

On a personal or local society level, what this war is is the fight between right and wrong, between liberty and slavery, between good and evil. Of course, if you are a mature individual, you understand that the good and bad are very relative terms, and it's best to avoid such violent situations at all. Yet, it if comes to the conflict like this, for me the only true way to talk about the people on the very front line, in the trenches facing The Enemy, is poetry and epic prose. The cold analysis is of course important to practical understanding of the situation, yet it doesn't do justice to a person giving his or her life for a greater cause. Having said that, I run at a few videos kept very much in the spirit I outlined here:

A music video to Sabaton's 40:1 song, really fitting the evens of the first few weeks of war. We might've forget it already, but the first days were about the grassroots citizen resistance that in many cases stopped the orcs. Videos from February and March are really reminding of what it is all about:

Here's an Azov oath from 2015, it's as powerful as it gets:

And a subtitled Ukrainian anthem:

There's a conclusion to this rant - today I sent a letter to my local Territorial Defense brigade. They are overflowing with volunteers at the moment, but I'll should be able to join in the winter, early next year at the latest.

It's OK, I'll have the time to get used to morning jogs I guess.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Huba

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Machor said:

I'm starting to think we were wrong to call Putin 'Putler'... we should be calling him 'Putini' instead, remembering how Fascist Italy was able to take Ethiopia and Albania after great effort and losses, and had to be bailed out by Nazi Germany in Greece and North Africa.

Puttolini - I guess Spanish/ Italian members will appreciate the "Puta" core of this new word

[Letter from Prague]

Mold, Bugs in Burgers at Russia's McDonald's Substitute Spark Outrage

Finland seizes hundreds of Russian freight cars as EU sanctions bite

Turkey seizes Russian ship carrying ‘stolen’ Ukrainian grain

Tokayev offers EU to buy Kazakh oil instead of Russian

I see things are going well for Russia this week.

[BlackMoria]

14 minutes ago, Huba said:

There's a conclusion to this rant - today I sent a letter to my local Territorial Defense brigade. They are overflowing with volunteers at the moment, but I'll should be able to join in the winter, early next year at the latest.

It's OK, I'll have the time to get used to morning jogs I guess.

Huba, you have my profound and heartfelt respect.   Seriously....respect.

[Letter from Prague]

26 minutes ago, Huba said:

There's a conclusion to this rant - today I sent a letter to my local Territorial Defense brigade. They are overflowing with volunteers at the moment, but I'll should be able to join in the winter, early next year at the latest.

It's OK, I'll have the time to get used to morning jogs I guess.

I so get that. My grandfather was a partisan in WW2 and part of Prague Uprising. I am now trying to become part of our Active Reserves - turns out I need to get somewhat fitter first  

Before this all happened, I thought this is only for "weirdo nationalist people". It is incredible how easily a world turn upside down.

 

EDIT: I am sure this is something a lot of people share. At the same time, we're the lucky ones who can chose whether to join instead of having to.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Letter from Prague

[Huba]

31 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I so get that. My grandfather was a partisan in WW2 and part of Prague Uprising. I am now trying to become part of our Active Reserves - turns out I need to get somewhat fitter first  

Before this all happened, I thought this is only for "weirdo nationalist people". It is incredible how easily a world turn upside down.

 

EDIT: I am sure this is something a lot of people share. At the same time, we're the lucky ones who can chose whether to join instead of having to.

Hear hear! Sweating a little is good for you as you grow older, and the sweat spilled in the exercises...

Edit: and to be honest, my grandpa, apart from fighting the Nazis, took part in the "Wisła" operation, fighting the Banderite partisans and participated in ethnic cleansing of south-eastern Poland from the Ukrainians after the war. Nothing to be proud of, it highlights how complicated CEE history is...

Edited July 5, 2022 by Huba

[BlackMoria]

I checked out joining the International Legion when it was first was announced but at age 65 and 25 years out of the military, naturally it was a polite 'no'.  Too old, not current or recent military and my medical history was a guaranteed 'no' but I tried.

So I did the next best thing.  I had a $1500 DJI drone.   I sent it to Ukraine as a donation in my stead.  If I can't do my part, at least my drone can.  I wonder at times every time there is a Ukrainian drone video, if it is my bird.  That helps me get through all of this.

Edited July 5, 2022 by BlackMoria

[Letter from Prague]

Huh.

[BlackMoria]

6 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Huh.

Among the very orthodox, affixing a holy relic or icon to a person or object is believed to provide protection as a blessing from god.  It obviously didn't work.  Just like all superstitious beliefs.

Just another sign of how utterly bizarre this war has become.

 

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Machor said:

Motorized Infantry, 2022:

I don't usually call the Russians "Orks", but this is starting to look like something from Warhammer 40K.

[dan/california]

I am dying to know what is closer to the bottom of the barrel? The truck,? Or the troops inside it?

[Huba]

2 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

Huba, you have my profound and heartfelt respect.   Seriously....respect.

 

1 hour ago, BlackMoria said:

I checked out joining the International Legion when it was first was announced but at age 65 and 25 years out of the military, naturally it was a polite 'no'.  Too old, not current or recent military and my medical history was a guaranteed 'no' but I tried.

So I did the next best thing.  I had a $1500 DJI drone.   I sent it to Ukraine as a donation in my stead.  If I can't do my part, at least my drone can.  I wonder at times every time there is a Ukrainian drone video, if it is my bird.  That helps me get through all of this.

Thank you for the kind words! I'm still trying to come to terms with this decision, but given how moved I'm by what's going on it seems to be the only right choice. It's not rational on a personal level, but feels right.

To be honest, I don't believe it will really come to Polish TD fighting anybody in the foreseeable future. Thanks to the Ukrainians, the only potential military threat will be toothless for the years to come. At this time the most we can do, apart from pushing the politicians in the correct direction, is to volunteer our time and resources to this cause - I donated quite a bit of  money to UA cause and (as an unrelated person from the Internet  ) I'm really grateful that you did too. Cheers!

[Haiduk]

About actions on Dnieper left bank bridgehead (Kherson oblast)

Maybe this is just my imagination, but Ukrainian crossing of Inhulets river at the end of May had an objectives not so the offensive on Kherson, but foiling of Russian plans of offensive on Zaporizhzhia. Before our General Staff reported about our troops crossed Inhulets, they claimed Russians were concentrating own forces in area Vasylivka - Polohy. Alsmost simultainously, like this became knowingly now, UKR artillery conducted mass preventive strike on this group (and maybe for this some part of artillery was distracted from Donbas to Zaporizhzhia axis or ammunitions were delivering first of all, causing lack of ammunitions in other places, I don't know) and UKR forces became to cross Inhulets. 

Thus, Russians, having lost some ground behind Inhulets were forced to gather in the haste reserves to throw Ukrainians down in the river. Ukrainain command then, began pressure on all frontline of Russian bridgehead on the left bank of Dnieper. But this wasn't something like big offensive. This was "random" activation of different sections of front, so Russians moved own "fireteams" in different places and couldn't concentrate them all against Inhulets group only. 

But Russian advantage in artillery and moving more reserves, for the month of heavy and bloody fights did own work - they could stop UKR advance behind Inhulets and take back most of UKR bridghead, so in present time UKR forces still control small part of bridgehead between Lozove (allegedly under UKR control) and Davydiv Brid (gray zone ot Russian control). 

Except bridgehead, UKR forces also conducted heavy and bloody fight, trying to liberate important Snihurivka town. In some days even were reports that UKR troops already in the town outskirts, but looks like Russians could repell theese atatcks, but the clashes are still ongoing. 

So, in present time Kherson direction has four local subdirections:

- SE area aside of M14 road Mykolaiv - Kherson. UKR troops trying to push enemy forces from the heavy fortified Pravdyne area as well as from Kyselivka. 

- Snihurivka

- Inhulets bridgehead and around

- Northern Kherson oblast: Arkanhelske - Vysokopillia - Novovoznesenske.

Both sides are conducting small tactical actions (from this tree plant to the next tree-plant) with varied success on background of artillery strikes. 

As I wrote in previous post now UKR command "activated" more the latter and achieved some success, liberating Potimkyne and Ivanivka on the flanks of Vysokopillia, so Russians are moving there new portion of reinforcements. Except BTGs of 34th MRB (mountain) and 11th air-assault brigade (main "fireteam" of Kherson oblast), now Russians are moving hastly on this diretion BTG of 83rd air-assault brigade from Zaporizhzhia direction and tired in heavy battles on Popasna - Bakhmut direction BTG of 106th VDV division.   

Other directions from Russian side defend grouping of 126th coastal defense brigade, 255 MRR of 20th MRD and 127th recon brigade. More deep lines probably secured by LDPR conscripts (at least they were in that place 1,5-2 months ago). 

Also Russians are moving now to M14 road area where UKR reportedly has same gains next reinforcements: BTG of 429th MRR of 19th MRD from Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia oblast and combined BTG from other uits of this division. Probably they will try to push UKR troops back and take Posad-Pokrovske village - the main stronghold of UKR presense in this area. Already now Russians with forces of 255th MRR elements are trying to attack in our right flank here in area Shmidtove - Liubomyrivka to come to the rear of our grouping, which try to advance along M14 road  

So, in this way Russians are waekening more and more own Zaporizhzhia grouping, their offensive on Zaporizhzhia was foiled and Ukrainain pressure there also is growing, but about this in next time.

The map just for illustration, its too hard to depict small scale villages on Google map.

 

Edited July 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

Many thanks for the update. Any idea why the bridge right behind Kherson is still up? I really think it shouldn't be. And yes I am aware my opinion counts for less than a feather, but still...

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Many thanks for the update. Any idea why the bridge right behind Kherson is still up? I really think it shouldn't be. And yes I am aware my opinion counts for less than a feather, but still...

Many people in Ukraine ask the same. But looks like out General Staff has own plans about this bridge. But how they can prevent it demolishing form retreating Russians it's a question too...

[Huba]

28 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Many thanks for the update. Any idea why the bridge right behind Kherson is still up? I really think it shouldn't be. And yes I am aware my opinion counts for less than a feather, but still...

I was just about to ask that very question. It's hard for me to imagine UA taking the bridges without RU blowing them up, or in the worst case taking them out with indirect fire. 

Perhaps (and that's a long shot, without any immediate evidence) UA General Staff intends to continue northern Kherson operation as a bait, and the actual push will come from Zaporozhiya in the direction of Melitopol and further towards Crimea? In this case keeping the bridges up makes perfect sense. It would also allow not to do battle of Kherson City, which is a huge plus for UA. We'll see in next month or two I guess.

Edit: what's is also telling is UA acquiring a flotilla of river boats in latest support package - with Snake Islad out of view, the only place to use it is the Dneper around Kherson city. UA has to be expecting a fight in the canals and rivervbeds there.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Huba

[Beleg85]

Very sad news. 'Brest", a Commander of Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment is reported to die in battle. Circumstances are not known, however this unit was often used as elite light infantry operating in close contact with enemy, so probably infantry skirmish.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Beleg85