How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[scarletto]

Been out there twice now, as a civilian aid worker, different this last time, aid convoy was shelled, no one hurt, but the signs that the Russians are shelling villages etc for fun very obvious, more widespread firing. Watched a massive firefight  (from safety of a cellar) lots of night time artillery. Things more tense. Last time  I am going, as my missus says at 64 I am to old, hey in my head I'm still a 21 year old soldier. Sadly i see peace has more chance of platting fog than stopping this war at the moment.
 

[Grigb]

The situation in border regions (Belgorod, Kursk) is slowly heating up.  Locals reports about regular firefights and cross border shelling. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

15 minutes ago, Grigb said:

The situation in border regions (Belgorod, Kursk) is slowly heating up.  Locals reports about regular firefights and cross border shelling. 

That would be a good attrition warfare front for RUS. Ukraine not allowed to hit the rear areas... Epic fail from the US administration there. Interesting to see how long that policy stands.

[Bulletpoint]

7 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I just want to clarify that when I said " both the tank and the infantryman are not going anywhere for a while" I meant they would be useful for some time to come.

I think the usefulness of the infantry is strongly related to the advent of modern AT missiles (and precision artillery), as the tank has lost a lot of its usefulness as a breakthrough weapon.

The tank has not become useless, but a lot less useful than it used to be. Going forward, I believe we will see a shift away from MBTs and towards lighter armour. Basically the same development as we saw with battleships becoming carriers and destroyers.

The war in Ukraine is not the definitive proof of this though, as it's a war with an unusual level of tactical incompetence on the Russian side, and a huge inflow of gifted AT missiles for the Ukrainians.

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

It is not strange. On the personal level it is convenient for them to demonstrate support of UKR. But they also have orders from their space supervisors to do a bit of propaganda. And that's what they do.

Yes, it is sort of hypocrisy but this is how things work in RU. You can get simultaneously mass patriotic frenzy with mass unpatriotic Draft evasion. Because this way you get patriotic respect and do not get yourself killed. 

Yes very probable it seems . But to be honest that kind of patriotism is not only russian exclusive, the most vocally patriotic are sometimes the most draft dodging everywhere. 

But truth is the Russians I have met have an indirect way to express themselves, like they need to hide something, soviet evasive decoding? Oh well don't remind me of this story

[Grigb]

I got a feel that KGB clan is starting an operation to replace Putin with Patrushev. He is being portrait as kind of sane version of Putin. Putin right now is like old man living in fantasy land and Patrushev is emerging like straight-talker-problem-solver guy you need in crisis.

For example, while Putin was discussing with Shoigu victory of liberating LDNR and giving awards Patrushev made straight talk that there is still job to be done.

Quote

Patrushev listed the goals of the special operation in Ukraine
KHABAROVSK, July 5 — RIA Novosti. The goals of the special military operation in Ukraine will be achieved, despite the supply of Western weapons to Kiev, said the Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, speaking at a meeting on national security in Khabarovsk.
The purpose of the special operation is to ensure the protection of people from genocide by the Ukrainian neo—Nazi regime, to demilitarize and denazify the territory of Ukraine, in fact to achieve its neutral status, which should be spelled out in the Constitution, the Secretary of the Security Council listed.

 

And here he talks about issues of Far East

Quote

Patrushev: the infrastructure of the fuel and energy complex in the Far East is significantly worn out

KHABAROVSK, July 5 - RIA Novosti. The energy infrastructure in the Russian Far East remains significantly worn out, and excessive energy losses lead to an increase in utility bills, said the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev.
"The threats to energy security in the Far Eastern Federal District are primarily due to the significant deterioration of the energy infrastructure and the presence of isolated energy districts with autonomous generation running on imported fuel," Patrushev said on Tuesday in Khabarovsk at a meeting on national security issues in the Far Eastern Federal District.
"We have been talking about this for a long time. However, the necessary results have not yet been achieved," the Secretary of the Security Council stated.
According to him, excess losses are growing, increasing the price of consumed energy and heat. "This leads to an increase in utility bills, which causes understandable discontent of the population," Patrushev added.

Here you see him warning local authorities about their indifference to local regional needs (as if it is not his boss who put them there and tolerated their behavior). He talks like he is sure they will not be able to appeal to Putin himself. 

So, I am reading tea leaves that they are isolating Old Man rerouting decision making processes to Patrushev like do not bother Glorious Old Man with unnecessary boring details, respect his age and health. 

Fun Fact - Lenin was always portraited as Glorious Old Man. He was like an Orthodox saint elder. But Lenin was just 53 years old and young energetic politician Putin is 69 years old now.

[Huba]

9 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I got a feel that KGB clan is starting an operation to replace Putin with Patrushev. He is being portrait as kind of sane version of Putin. Putin right now is like old man living in fantasy land and Patrushev is emerging like straight-talker-problem-solver guy you need in crisis.

For example, while Putin was discussing with Shoigu victory of liberating LDNR and giving awards Patrushev made straight talk that there is still job to be done.

 

And here he talks about issues of Far East

Here you see him warning local authorities about their indifference to local regional needs (as if it is not his boss who put them there and tolerated their behavior). He talks like he is sure they will not be able to appeal to Putin himself. 

So, I am reading tea leaves that they are isolating Old Man rerouting decision making processes to Patrushev like do not bother Glorious Old Man with unnecessary boring details, respect his age and health. 

Fun Fact - Lenin was always portraited as Glorious Old Man. He was like an Orthodox saint elder. But Lenin was just 53 years old and young energetic politician Putin is 69 years old now.

So if that's the plan indeed, and it's already in motion, what awaits Putin? Will he be gradually removed form power, or Polonium tea? And more importantly, will he be thrown under the bus of another Brest-Litovsk humiliation, or will the new guy actually try to salvage the situation and win militarily ?

[Probus]

Is it just me or does it seem that Ukraine is targeting more and more ammo dumps?

[The_MonkeyKing]

39 minutes ago, Probus said:

Is it just me or does it seem that Ukraine is targeting more and more ammo dumps?

Yes, they now have the means, before they had only limited capacity for this. GMLRS. Seems like in very large numbers.

They had very limited stockpiles of very old and relatively easily shot down longer range missiles. Totška-U. In comparison it is unclear does Russia have any capacity to intercept GMLRS missiles.

[poesel]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

That would be a good attrition warfare front for RUS. Ukraine not allowed to hit the rear areas... Epic fail from the US administration there. Interesting to see how long that policy stands.

IIRC the US explicitly allowed the UA to fire into Russia versus military targets as retribution to attacks. 

I guess this will be another ‘cook the frog’ thing. Russia fires from their land, Ukraine fires back and soon it will be normal that the war is also on the Russian side. It’s unclear, what Russia hopes to gain here (as usual).

[The_MonkeyKing]

17 minutes ago, poesel said:

IIRC the US explicitly allowed the UA to fire into Russia versus military targets as retribution to attacks. 

I guess this will be another ‘cook the frog’ thing. Russia fires from their land, Ukraine fires back and soon it will be normal that the war is also on the Russian side. It’s unclear, what Russia hopes to gain here (as usual).

aa, I missed that one. Good if that is the case.

I am interested in a source on this.

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

aa, I missed that one. Good if that is the case.

I am interested in a source on this.

I'm too lazy to dig it up, but it was said by a former official (former US Ambassador to UA IIRC). So it's a little ambiguous, I imagine on purpose.

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

I got a feel that KGB clan is starting an operation to replace Putin with Patrushev. He is being portrait as kind of sane version of Putin. Putin right now is like old man living in fantasy land and Patrushev is emerging like straight-talker-problem-solver guy you need in crisis.

For example, while Putin was discussing with Shoigu victory of liberating LDNR and giving awards Patrushev made straight talk that there is still job to be done.

 

And here he talks about issues of Far East

Here you see him warning local authorities about their indifference to local regional needs (as if it is not his boss who put them there and tolerated their behavior). He talks like he is sure they will not be able to appeal to Putin himself. 

So, I am reading tea leaves that they are isolating Old Man rerouting decision making processes to Patrushev like do not bother Glorious Old Man with unnecessary boring details, respect his age and health. 

Fun Fact - Lenin was always portraited as Glorious Old Man. He was like an Orthodox saint elder. But Lenin was just 53 years old and young energetic politician Putin is 69 years old now.

I fully agree that Patrushev is one factions candidate for the leadership post Putin, but there are at least three factions. I don't thing we can assume the current regime, by which I mean the FSB faction that Putin represents, can smoothly retain power after Putin's death with the whole regime under this level of stress. There are a LOT of other sharks that would like be first at the buffet whatever its current size. Indeed it is even more important to be at the front of the line as size of the buffet gets smaller. The obvious way for them to achieve that is if the entire FSB faction is suddenly on the menu. And the combination of the decision to launch the war being so tightly held, and the FSB's failure to actually produce a coup in Kyiv, certainly give at least a theoretical opening. There is a GREAT deal of blame to be assigned somewhere.

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Yegor Meleshenko, tank battalion commander, unknown unit (90th Tank Division?):

 

[Haiduk]

14 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for the feedback.  Maybe I'm splitting hairs, but it seems to me in the first few days of the war there was not much Ukrainian artillery activity (outside of established Donbas front) even in the north.  Instead, it started kicking in after Russians got established around Kyiv and Charnihiv.  Yes, I know that Ukrainian artillery was not 100% absent in those areas, but it seemed to me that most of the artillery was held back so it wasn't overrun.  Then once the front firmed up it slammed hard into Russian forces, especially in places like Hostomel, Bucha, Brovary, Kharkiv, etc.

Steve

Since Feb 8th UKR troops have started defensicve operation covered as maneuvers. Units occupied own defensive areas according to the plan. And artillery, of course too. It's naturally that some BTGs and  artillery battalions of arty brigades were in reserve. The sounds of cannonade in Hostomel I heard already 24th Feb at the evening and since 26th Feb Pions battery alredy fired from position not far from of my house.  

[Bennie]

19 hours ago, hcrof said:

What does sequestered mean in this case? Reduced?

It means that the budget will be kept private and not made available for public scrutiny.

[Haiduk]

14 hours ago, Machor said:

I believe the slogan on the launcher says "Believe in the AFU, and all will become Ukraine!" (?) @Haiduk

Yes ) Or "...all will be Ukraine". The letters ЗСУ (AFU) stylized in the trident 

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, Probus said:

Is it just me or does it seem that Ukraine is targeting more and more ammo dumps?

Yes, today at least two were hit:

Stakhanov (Kadiivka) again (but this one was not so large): 

Donetsk:

 

Edited July 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russian railway troops established railway pontoon crossing in Kupiansk area (Kharkiv oblast)

 

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian railway troops established railway pontoon crossing in Kupiansk area (Kharkiv oblast)

 

DefMon reported it like 2 weeks ago already. It allows trains to go to Shevchenkowe and improves LOC on eastern Kharkiv direction. I wonder how long it will last though, looks like HIMARS fodder.

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

DefMon reported it like 2 weeks ago already. It allows trains to go to Shevchenkowe and improves LOC on eastern Kharkiv direction. I wonder how long it will last though, looks like HIMARS fodder.

Yes, just second video is newest

[Haiduk]

Artillery of 28th mech.brigade destroyed position of Russian Uragan MLRS in 3 km north from Tomyna Balka village, Kherson oblast - 2 launchers and 2 loaders destroyed.

 

[Grigb]

There is another Murz rant. I think he is extremely upset about something happening recently. He ranted about West, RU politicians but what is interesting is a part about RU military and warehouses strikes. 

Quote

And our military leadership accepted the challenge [of stupid game for stupid prize]. Our military cannot be satisfied with the second place in the competition of mental disability. They accepted the challenge, and they SUCCEEDED. They were able to create Shell Famine [It is name of RU shell crisis in WW1. Became the symbol of the Imperial RU government military incompetence]. It's incredible, incomprehensible, but these amazing [Murz euphemism for swearing] people have done the impossible - ****ed up everything.

In the same Krasny Luch, where there are two large groups of protected warehouses nearby, a "Dynamite warehouse" and a warehouse of a pyrotechnic plant in Petrovosky, two places specially designed for storing explosives, with all security measures, But all the artillery munitions brought to the city were stacked in one convenient pile, closer to the station. And everything went up in the air from one hit, demolishing nearby streets. Well, at least they managed to pull the trains from the station.

And further down the list, including Snezhnoye and other less well-known places, the sad hours-long banging of which I also heard with my own ears. And now it is not the Ukrainian artillery that have shell famine, as per claims of media prostitute Shurygin, it is now our artillery that have shell famine. And for the second time - we have already switched from the scarce 122-mm caliber to 152-mm but here we go again.

It is time for nice Ukrainian song about Artillery - Vse Budet Ukraina!

[Huba]

And here's the music video with english subtitles

Also, I'm saving this Murz quote and I intend to paraphrase it in conversations:

Quote

 Our military cannot be satisfied with the second place in the competition of mental disability.

 

Edited July 5, 2022 by Huba

[FancyCat]

If Russia makes moves to reinvade Ukraine from new directions, I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine gets more reaching ammo with permission to fire into Russia. The barrier on strikes on Russian territory is truly broken, with civilian deaths, drone strikes, helicopters, missiles, etc. War has truly arrived to the border areas, and there does not seem to be a swell in support for Putin, at least not such to allow mobilization, without somehow stabbing Putin as a result.