How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

41 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I believe that the actual objective is in fact to ensure Russia's defeat, but it's a goal that cannot be stated publicly for diplomatic reasons.

It would be a major boost to Putin's popularity if the US openly declared that they were plotting Russia's humiliating defeat.

Imagine if during the US stay in Afghanistan, Pakistan had come out and said "Our objective is to ensure American defeat - thwarting their aims to hold on to Afghanistan and smashing its armed forces in a convincing and humiliating way".

Yeah, I had the same thought.  Overall an excellent article, but that one criticism isn't really valid IMHO.  Especially because logically if Ukraine is not defeated than Russia is.  That might not be true in conflicts as a rule, but Russia has invested too much into the war to be able to walk away from it "undefeated" as a nation state.

Steve

[akd]

Ukrainian golf:

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Abouit Zaporizhzhia axis, "blanc spot" of this war. 

Thank you for the two detailed posts.  Calling this a "blank spot" is definitely the right term for it!  We hear very, very little from the area.  The activities in your first post were mentioned but quickly submerged by news of other fighting.

This is another example of how difficult it will be for Russia to defend this area if it starts to experience even short term shortages of artillery shells.

Steve

[G.I. Joe]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Just to add something to these discussions on Old/"New" EU countries- subsidies paid to 2004 members are only one side of "package deal". The other was wide access to cheap labour, new markets in fast developing economy, and relative drainage of talents (but with mutual benefits, as specialized cadres flocked to CEE) on part of Central-Eastern Europeans.

So no, subsidies are no "money for poor brothers" nor new "Marshall Plan"- they are part of multi-level transaction in ways which your graph does not show. Long-term investment, if you prefer, that to this day is very beneficial for western economies, industry and businessess, especially German.

Fair points, but I think it comes back to @poesel's point about economics not being a zero-sum game. The Marshall Plan was not purely altruistic, either. It was very much in the United States' interests both strategically and economically to help Western Europe (and Japan, though not part of the Marshall Plan per se, but the parallels are obvious) to rebuild as prosperous liberal democracies. So in a sense the Marshall Plan can be seen as both a tremendous humanitarian effort and a very sensible long term investment...

[Calamine Waffles]

An, uh, interesting improvisation
 

 

Edited July 6, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[dan/california]

Best maps out there.

[Letter from Prague]

2 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

A, uh, interesting improvisation

Would that even do anything? Anything useful?

 

28 minutes ago, akd said:

Ukrainian golf:

I guess going from mini-golf to mine-golf is a natural progression

(Ok I'll go back to lurking for a while.)

[Huba]

43 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Abouit Zaporizhzhia axis, "blanc spot" of this war. 

As I told in previous post about Kherson oblast, Russians had a plans to develop own advance toward Zaporizhzhia from Vasylivka - Polohy line, but likely UKR Inhuleys crossing and preventive artillery strike on concentrated forced, ready to attack foiled Russian plans. So, since start of June Zaporizhzhia direction became minor in Russian priorities and also became a source of reinforcements for Kherson grouping. 

If in previous times Russians fiercely shelled and assaulted our positions on Orikhove - Huliaypole line  - most useful place for attack on Zaporizhzhia, then now situation changed and UKR forces are very slowly but steady pushing Russians back. The war in this area also is going on like series of artillery duels and limited infantry probes "from this tree-plant to next tree-plant" if artillery strikes were successfull. 

Now Ukrainian troops are trying to approach to Vasylivka and Polohy, but Russians in the same way fiercly defending around Shcherbaky, Stepove and Nesterianka villages on Vasylivla direction and near Inzhenerne on Polohy direction.

The main burden of warfare from Russian side here is borne units of 58th CAA, particulary 42nd GMRD and 19th MRD. Interesting, that 42nd division being dislocated in Chechnya and 19th in Northern Osetia, so there are many Caucasians serve there and population of occupied territories often thinks that this is "Kadyrov's troops", but this is not true. 

There is knowingly that 503rd GMRR of 19th MRD fights for Polohy and 83rd air-assault brigade fights in area of Shcherbaky - Stepove, but as I told yesterday BTG of this brigade removed to Kherson direction as well as BTG of 429th MRR of 42nd division from Tokmak town area. Also knowingly about 177th separate naval infantry regiment BTG(s?) of Caspian Sea flotilia and 22nd Spetsnaz brigade (Southern military district) involvement on Zaporizhzhia front.

The length of southern front is too wide, Russians also need a forces to defend rear objects like Tokmak, Melitopol, Vasylivka, I don't tell now about eastern part of this front from Velyka Novosilka to Vuhledar, where Russians also have problems. And only relatively small number of Ukrainian troops there doesn't allow us to make decisive breakthroughs. 

 

 

This looks like the place for the UA strategic counteroffensive, much more than Kherson. AFAIK UA reserves are stationed mostly around Krivy Rih, that isn’t that far from  Stepove.

Lure as much RU to Kherson front as possible. HIMARS the bridges to cut them off there and push  from Zaporizhya to the sea, bypassing cities. If assets to strike Crimea Bridge can be secured secretly, unleash them at the same time. Hold to the corridor with all your strength, and watch RU forces on the west of you starve and wither. 

 

Edited July 6, 2022 by Huba

[Calamine Waffles]

 

1 minute ago, Letter from Prague said:

Would that even do anything? Anything useful?

It's kind of like strapping nails to a pipe bomb. I guess they just want to add more lethality.

[akd]

sex

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

Fair points, but I think it comes back to @poesel's point about economics not being a zero-sum game. The Marshall Plan was not purely altruistic, either. It was very much in the United States' interests both strategically and economically to help Western Europe (and Japan, though not part of the Marshall Plan per se, but the parallels are obvious) to rebuild as prosperous liberal democracies. So in a sense the Marshall Plan can be seen as both a tremendous humanitarian effort and a very sensible long term investment...

True, aditionally M.Plan was a way to move back heated US wartime economy back to civilian tracks by finding massive markets for US-produced goods.

Still, Marshall Plan is commonly understood as one giant golden rain of cheap (or free) goods flowing impoverished society. Of course, this is not how UE subsidies system work- they should rather be viewed as financial/infrastructural recovery for allowance of western capital to compete in CEE markets on obviously unequal terms. Western business had massive advantage over domestic local capital.

In other words: you gave us lion share of your markets, we gave you money for development. It's exchange, not some altruism; no free riding here.

The same probably will happen soon in Ukraine, if it stays EU course.

 

More info on "Breść" killed in battle 26.06. His death may rise some tension in  Kalinousky regiment, as he was respected by members of both battalions.

https://en.hromadske.ua/posts/the-commander-of-the-belarusian-battalion-volat-who-defended-ukraine-died-in-the-battles-for-lysychansk

Edited July 7, 2022 by Beleg85

[Harmon Rabb]

Let me guess, 99.9% of Alaskans would supposedly vote "yes" in becoming a part of Russia if this referendum was ever going to happen and administered by the Russian government.

[BlackMoria]

3 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Let me guess, 99.9% of Alaskans would supposedly vote "yes" in becoming a part of Russia if this referendum was ever going to happen and administered by the Russian government.

Russian Official:  *snorts a rail of coke off of the stripper's ass*  "uh...yes"

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Let me guess, 99.9% of Alaskans would supposedly vote "yes" in becoming a part of Russia if this referendum was ever going to happen and administered by the Russian government.

Every time some idiot in the Duma starts screaming about Alaska some random ship in the Russian Navy needs to have a smoking problem. The kind of smoking problem where it lifts 15 feet out of the water, breaks in half amidships, and then sinks with all hands inn the course of about 90 seconds. I mean Russian cigarettes are dangerous after all.

[Battlefront.com]

People quite rightly point out the idiotic political representatives of the people in Western countries, some of which should be in padded cells for sure, so I do not know how moronic the Duma is on the whole.  We could just be seeing the same nutjobs that Western media likes to focus on.  And no, let us not get into a naming names.  We all know plenty that fit this description.

The difference between Russia's nutters and the West's is that as soon as a Western nutter says something this crazy there's a lot of others who point out how crazy it is.  Even if comes from senior leadership and even if the country's politics are hyper polarized.  In Russia?  Exact opposite.  If someone in the Duma says something that's solidly grounded in reality they get arrested

Steve

[chris talpas]

4 hours ago, MikeyD said:

Russia doesn't have 'another army' waiting around so it'll probably be a little difficult to take back Alaska.

Could be interesting to see how well the Russians execute an opposed amphibious operation

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Let me guess, 99.9% of Alaskans would supposedly vote "yes" in becoming a part of Russia if this referendum was ever going to happen and administered by the Russian government.

I knew this was going to get stupider.  So the Crimea belonged to the Mongolians, along with most of western Russia, so should they hold a referendum to take it back?  

What I can’t square is this continuing narrative coming from Russia that they somehow have the power to do all of these threats - The Baltics, Poland, Finland, Sweden, London and now, for some bizarre reason, Alaska.  I am sure it is for domestic consumption but I am starting to wonder if people in power in Russia actually believe it.  Russia has its hands full taking a few acres in southeast Ukraine, and it is mauling them in so many dimensions - but hey, sure let’s go for Alaska…why not the Moon too, re-gin up the space race?

[BlackMoria]

1 hour ago, chris talpas said:

Could be interesting to see how well the Russians execute an opposed amphibious operation

About as well as their bridging operations...

[acrashb]

3 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Would that even do anything? Anything useful?

It could be a joke for the camera.

Best case it adds some frag effect from the bullets, but it's a waste of perfectly good ammunition.  Better off with a bunch of nuts and bolts from a hardware store (better off again with ball bearings, but that's another discussion).  And it would, to some significant degree, destabilize the flight.

So overall I'm hoping it was a couple of guys goofing around, not real.

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I knew this was going to get stupider.  So the Crimea belonged to the Mongolians, along with most of western Russia, so should they hold a referendum to take it back?  

What I can’t square is this continuing narrative coming from Russia that they somehow have the power to do all of these threats - The Baltics, Poland, Finland, Sweden, London and now, for some bizarre reason, Alaska.  I am sure it is for domestic consumption but I am starting to wonder if people in power in Russia actually believe it.  Russia has its hands full taking a few acres in southeast Ukraine, and it is mauling them in so many dimensions - but hey, sure let’s go for Alaska…why not the Moon too, re-gin up the space race?

At some point you have to wonder if your Duma seat includes a weekly allotment of the special Columbian marching powder along with the case of vodka. I mean complete poly substance intoxication is the least bad reason for what some of these people are spouting

14 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

About as well as their bridging operations...

And this would be in water that will just kill you in ~15 minutes.

[chris talpas]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

At some point you have to wonder if your Duma seat includes a weekly allotment of the special Columbian marching powder along with the case of vodka. I mean complete poly substance intoxication is the least bad reason for what some of these people are spouting

And this would be in water that will just kill you in ~15 minutes.

And just a wee bit deeper than that river too.

 

[G.I. Joe]

36 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

And just a wee bit deeper than that river too.

 

Throw in a dozen or so Virginia-class submarines and the odds of anything making it near a beachead are probably...minimal.

[Blazing 88's]

9 hours ago, sburke said:

Elvis and I are pissed- that is a Flyers goalie, and we need all the help we can get.

No doubt! We need Clarke to go over there and break some ankles!

[Artkin]

Dude those T-62s are totally on the front wtf

[Vergeltungswaffe]

5 hours ago, akd said:

sex

Practically an EM-50.