How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

Nasi sudah bubur they say in Indonesia. Rice for grownups porridge for the kids. What they show on TV is the porridge. 

Bubur Ayam! During my time in Indonesia that used to be my breakfast.

But assuming Putin will declare war on Ukraine. Apart from more reservists and conscripts, what difference will it actually make for this war? What is there to gain for Putin?

And another question. Belarussia is planning on large army exercises. Can we expect them to invade Ukraine (again)?

 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[chuckdyke]

16 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Bubur Ayam!

Chicken porridge, it is correct you make porridge out of last night's meal. Back to the topic. It is how people regard the news. 

Edited May 5, 2022 by chuckdyke

[DMS]

14 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

So you'd need to be wilfully blind not to see the toxic mix that makes this behaviour all entirely credible. May this war end swiftly.

Sure. Crimes happen during peace time, for example Russian soldier in Armenia deserted and killed a family some years ago, it was a loud case. It happens in Russia, it happens in foreign bases, it surely happens in Ukraine. War adds more cases, like shooting at civilian cars, bombardments of towns. But there is a difference between crimes and all that stuff, when "wife tells husband to rape, but not to tell her". It makes difference between badly organised army and "orcs".

23 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I will start to take you seriousely after you condemn the BS propaganda of your own regime and the fact that they are brutally bringing war and terror over defenceless civilians. But you carefully stay away from that. Again I would like to point out that your personal avatar is showing NKVD thugs, the tool of terror and massacre of Stalin. You're not objective, you're a coyote in sheep clothing.

Actually it is zagrad otryad (blocking unit) checking documents. I thought it was fun to put it after several discussions about it here.

If you want to know my political views, you won't like it, I am left. (You are far, far right, as I remember)) And I don't like Putin's BS about "Lenin, who created Ukraine" and other right propaganda. (And I don't like that he started this war, if it was unclear.) As well as I don't like Ukrainian nationalists. Our and their rightists raised this war, playing along with each other. Just to explain my position, if you ask, no need to argue with that, PM me if you want. 

[chuckdyke]

Just read the definition of 'Gift' this one was about as silly as selling Alaska to the US. They are as competent in foreign politics as in warfare. The other Soviet Republics must have fought the Great Patriotic war. 

USSR's Nikita Khrushchev gave Russia’s Crimea away to Ukraine in only 15 minutes (pravda.ru)

Edited May 5, 2022 by chuckdyke

[Aragorn2002]

14 minutes ago, DMS said:

Sure. Crimes happen during peace time, for example Russian soldier in Armenia deserted and killed a family some years ago, it was a loud case. It happens in Russia, it happens in foreign bases, it surely happens in Ukraine. War adds more cases, like shooting at civilian cars, bombardments of towns. But there is a difference between crimes and all that stuff, when "wife tells husband to rape, but not to tell her". It makes difference between badly organised army and "orcs".

Actually it is zagrad otryad (blocking unit) checking documents. I thought it was fun to put it after several discussions about it here.

If you want to know my political views, you won't like it, I am left. (You are far, far right, as I remember)) And I don't like Putin's BS about "Lenin, who created Ukraine" and other right propaganda. (And I don't like that he started this war, if it was unclear.) As well as I don't like Ukrainian nationalists. Our and their rightists raised this war, playing along with each other. Just to explain my position, if you ask, no need to argue with that, PM me if you want. 

I will PM you.

[Holien]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

To the rest of you, I suggest not responding.  He obviously thinks he's above the need to defend his points.  Probably because he has no comeback to the ease in which his positions are shown to be full of holes.

(Puts Popcorn back in packet and waits for Erwin to respond directly to Steve....

After some time.....

The cobwebs start to grow around the Popcorn packet....)

[kraze]

21 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Just read the definition of 'Gift' this one was about as silly as selling Alaska to the US. They are as competent in foreign politics as in warfare. The other Soviet Republics must have fought the Great Patriotic war. 

USSR's Nikita Khrushchev gave Russia’s Crimea away to Ukraine in only 15 minutes (pravda.ru)

Ah yes, that classic "Crimea was gifted" BS.

Thing is - after occupying Crimea - russians were incapable of building anything in it. In 1944, after genocide of tatars, they decided to put russians in there, hoping those will build it up, because Crimea was quite backwards, without any real modern infrastructure. But since russians were doing it - the results were predictable. Crimea in 1954 still looked like most of Russia in 2022.

So seeing that the hero of USSR Klim Voroshilov decided to redo borders of occupied countries somewhat. From occupied Ukraine he decided to take our parts of (very well developed) Cuban and instead "gift" us a land that couldn't have anything grown on it due to the lack of water. It should've been a BS deal Ukraine was forced to take, impossible to un-F.

Naturally in the modern russian propaganda they couldn't blame Voroshilov, who was in charge of USSR after Stalin's death, because that would go against their ideology upgrades, as Voroshilov was a badass rapist and looter during WW2, probably had a toilet or two stolen from Poland, you know - the kind of guy russians respect - so they decided to blame it all on Khruschev for whatever reason even though he wouldn't be anywhere near the throne for at least half a year.

And, of course, in 1991 russians were very upset that a land they occupied and did multiple genocides on suddenly was in a far better shape than parts of their country that haven't seen war for at least 300 years.

Edited May 5, 2022 by kraze

[chuckdyke]

Any country who calls their national paper 'The Truth' (Pravda) is a little suspicious. The other classic was Sputnik, a copy of the Readers Digest. Never anything critical of what the Soviet Union was doing. 

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

What is there to gain for Putin?

He needs to invest in Napoleon's Bicorne Hat. It was a terrific motivator for the conscripts in the French army. A billionaire who doesn't know what to do with his money.  

[Taranis]

Defense Forces of Ukraine move to counteroffensive in Kharkiv and Izyum directions - Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine General Valery Zaluzhny
https://t.me/UkraineNow/11167

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Defense Forces of Ukraine move to counteroffensive in Kharkiv and Izyum directions - Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine General Valery Zaluzhny
https://t.me/UkraineNow/11167

Godspeed! It's quite a vague statement though, let's see what will be the scale of the operation. 

[Ultradave]

Bread? We have two supermarkets in town. One, Stop and Shop, a New England chain, is the "big box" type of supermarket. The second is a "chain" of 3, of what used to be the normal size for supermarkets until about 30 years ago (talking USA here). 

Stop and Shop is having trouble keeping all the shelves stocked. It's random. Some things are full, others not, some almost empty. Next time it will be all switched around. Our Stop and Shop says it's because they can't get enough employees. They lost some due to COVID, others after a strike where corporate tried to reduce their already minimal benefits.

McQuade's, the small chain, is considered the "upscale" supermarket, although they carry everything you need. But they have an outstanding fish counter and meat department. The shelves are always full. Never shortages. Always the same employees. They are paid better, and for years I see the same people there. They are well treated, everyone is always pleasant and happy.

Both have more bread than you can possibly choose from, whether packaged or artisan near the deli.

The empty shelves here NOW are due entirely to a lack of shelf stockers. The store itself admits that.

Dave

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, DMS said:

Please don't believe to anything you read, stay critical.

We are.  And unfortunately for defenders of Russia, we have the benefit of a free press where there's people on the ground from many countries looking at the evidence of Russian brutality and cruelty in person and reporting it for everybody to see.  SBU, MI6 ,and the CIA don't have to fake anything.

3 hours ago, DMS said:

When you dehumanise somebody, you dehumanise yourself.

Correct.  Which is why you will see constant reminders, from me and others, that not all Russians are barbaric people from the time of birth.  The issue is that far too many are conditioned to be brutal by an autocratic regime and that is what was unleashed in Ukraine.

I am a historian first and foremost when I look at this stuff.  I have professional experience and academic training.  Autocracies are pretty similar and all exhibit a lack of humanity towards their own people and an even worse one towards those who they view as enemies.  Russia views Ukraine the same way Nazi Germany viewed all of "The East", so what we're seeing is no surprise.

3 hours ago, DMS said:

You can support Ukraine without believing in this dehumanising BS about Russian soldiers raping toddlers and their wives, advising to rape more. 

The problem is the scale of Russian barbarity is pretty easy to see and, sadly, expected.  What you don't seem to understand about your own people is this is not abnormal.  Have you watched your country's own propaganda?  It's akin to Nazi propaganda in both words and tone.  And since this is all state approved, it's difficult for us critical thinkers to conclude it is unrelated to what is going on in Ukraine.

As for raping babies... that I don't believe.  Raping young children?  That I believe because it is the type of thing an army like Russia's would do in this situation.  It doesn't mean the whole of the Russian forces are doing this, but for sure it is happening.  Mass raping of women and murder, of course, are far more common.  And don't even get me started about the deliberate attack of civilians by artillery, air, and missiles.

Sorry DMS, no matter how you try and soften the blow... Russia is a Fascist state waging a brutal war of aggression by a barely trained and educated rabble against a population it believes doesn't deserve to live.  War crimes are the expected result of all of that.  No propaganda needed.

Steve

[c3k]

 

5 hours ago, Taranis said:

↑ Moscow threatens Sweden and Finland
In a statement to Russian government agency TASS, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova reacted strongly to the wishes of the two Scandinavian countries to join the Transatlantic Alliance. "We have been warning our northern European neighbors regularly and for quite a long time that joining NATO threatens to unbalance European security," she said.

And to add: “In the event that Finland and Sweden join the alliance, there would then be a tense situation with Russia, and all the consequences that may ensue. Is this what the Swedish and Finnish people are looking for? asked the spokesperson.

 

If THAT doesn't make Finland and Sweden run to NATO, then nothing will.

"If you try to defend yourself from Russian invasion, we will invade you."

[LongLeftFlank]

As expected, Ukraine withdrew from #Yampil to positions along the Seversky Doniets River, the main defense line of the northern #Donbas near the cities of #Sloviansk and #Kramatorsk.

I continue to think this is the Russian intended stop line for their "Potemkin Offensive" as well.

But I guess we'll know in another week.

[Huba]

Just now, LongLeftFlank said:

As expected, Ukraine withdrew from #Yampil to positions along the Seversky Doniets River, the main defense line of the northern #Donbas near the cities of #Sloviansk and #Kramatorsk.

I continue to think this is the Russian intended stop line for their "Potemkin Offensive" as well.

But I guess we'll know in another week.

Same here, pushing Ukrainians over the river will give them a nice position to hold in the future, but that's about it as far as Russian offensive capabilities go. On the other hand, it would be very useful for the UA to keep a bridgehead on the northern shore for future offensive actions. IMO those are the stakes at the moment, significant breakthrough is hardly on the cards.

[LongLeftFlank]

Not much headway south of Izyum either, where the river isn't in the way.

So are American hipsters all growing their beards out Viking style now, and sporting camo BassProShop caps?

[DesertFox]

47 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Defense Forces of Ukraine move to counteroffensive in Kharkiv and Izyum directions - Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine General Valery Zaluzhny
https://t.me/UkraineNow/11167

I hope the best. May they put many invaders to sleep forever!

[akd]

2 hours ago, DMS said:

when "wife tells husband to rape, but not to tell her". It makes difference between badly organised army and "orcs".

3 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

It is funny that you are stuck on that one, because journalists separately verified both of the people in the conversation using the recorded call numbers.  Listening to the tone of that conversation, I can actually see how it might have been more of a gross joke between two people who know each other very well, but then that is just revealing of how either uncaring or unwilling to believe the Russian public is about the (I think now up to) 200 cases of documented actual rape by Russian soldiers in Ukraine.

Edited May 5, 2022 by akd

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

As for raping babies that I don't believe

While this is not a systemic issue, it definitely happened.

Identified Russian soldier Alexey Bychkov uploaded videos of himself  raping a 1 year old - how about those phone call credibility again of smart criminals? @DMS

If you want to burn your eyes, it should be easy to find.

Good news is, he was reportedly arrested. 

 

41 minutes ago, akd said:

It is funny that you are stuck on that one, because journalists separately verified both of the people in the conversation using the recorded call numbers.

These conversations and the crimes they entail have also been in large parts verified by the BND (german military intelligence). 

 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Kraft

[The_MonkeyKing]

46 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

As expected, Ukraine withdrew from #Yampil to positions along the Seversky Doniets River, the main defense line of the northern #Donbas near the cities of #Sloviansk and #Kramatorsk.

I continue to think this is the Russian intended stop line for their "Potemkin Offensive" as well.

But I guess we'll know in another week.

There are surely multiple layers to this onion that is the UKR defensive lines.

Ukraine want to peel the onion as little as possible. This river line might very well be feasible place to stop peeling.

The core of the onion would be the major cities of the area themselves. That's after which the peeling would stop and a new onion would be needed.

Edited May 5, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[LongLeftFlank]

@Haiduk has noted that this guy and DanSpiun tend to be a few days behind the times with their source info, so this is FWIW:

Hard to believe the Russians found a way into Dibrova (heavy woods) without more heavy losses to their (undermanned) assault infantry.

Unless the UA is indeed withdrawing from Lyman.

 

 

[Sarjen]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

Defense Forces of Ukraine move to counteroffensive in Kharkiv and Izyum directions - Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine General Valery Zaluzhny
https://t.me/UkraineNow/11167

 

Time has come. Let's see how it all works out. Good luck.

[kraze]

The problem with DMS is that he finds "dehumanizing" of his soldiers offending, not that his soldiers came to Ukraine to murder and take the land.

Invading other country, leveling its cities, murdering its citizens and deporting a million people to Siberia and far east (russian officials themselves confirm this) is not a problem to him.

Somebody saying that those things are bad and people doing them are just pure evil is the problem to him.

You see where the root of the issue is?

Edited May 5, 2022 by kraze

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, DMS said:

Replying to everyone: there are war crimes and still war propaganda exist. Sometimes propaganda lies, someone tells truth, sometimes - exaggerated truth. It's a question of tactic. War propaganda can't be "truthful", only idiot would limit himself during war. And yes, it is possible that there are some real war crimes and this time propaganda says true, but next time it invents fictional new case, using trust, raised by previous one. Good propaganda must use real cases. But it is not enough, they must provide flow of events, so public would stay interested.  

Ok, world wars are "dark past", no parallels are acceptable. But, Kuweit girl Nayirah. "Iraqi soldiers take babies out of incubators in a Kuwaiti hospital, take the incubators, and leave the babies to die." You know that she was Kuweit ambassador's daughter, that it was 100% lie, right? There were a lot of real war crimes, committed by Iraq soldiers in Kuweit. But propaganda needs something tremendous to dehumanise enemy. "They are not like us, they are savages". Private Jessica Lynch. You must know, that she was not raped, she was treated well by expecting capitulation Iraq soldiers. There are a lot of Russian propaganda examples, but you believe in existence of Russian propaganda, so no sense in mentioning them.

Please don't believe to anything you read, stay critical. When you dehumanise somebody, you dehumanise yourself. You can support Ukraine without believing in this dehumanising BS about Russian soldiers raping toddlers and their wives, advising to rape more. 

Oh come off it: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/04/world/europe/bucha-ukraine-bodies.html