How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Suleyman]

Belarus has around 10K professionals in its army from memory, not much of an offense either. I guess they could help the Russians by defending the lines with manpower. They could also generate more manpower to hold ground, it would help the Russians free up some more offense. I don't think Belarus is gonna tag in though. 

I'm guessing (Voronezh reinforcements) those 17 tanks are T-72Bs and the 60 IFVs are old BMP-2s, I guess decent enough against Ukraine's current equipment. Honestly probably better to use older equipment since the Ukrainians eat tanks for breakfast lunch and dinner. Keep the newer equipment for later. 

[BeondTheGrave]

Hello, hello? I dont know why you say goodbye I say hello. 

 

[Kinophile]

https://twitter.com/Missile_Defense/status/1521844109757100032?t=Zinu7II0xtpHN5OTW80K7w&s=19

Called it (so far).

RUS needed to stock up for a long time on missiles before launching the Izyum offensive. The real proof of how fubar'd their missile production is will be in thr next report,when we should see either 

1) Another significant gap until the next barrage of missiles

2) Continuous strikes but heavily reduced in number.

Casual observation suggests 2), as they have been striking but not at the continuous, abrasive rate needed to actually cripple UKR infrastructure. Theyre doing damage for sure but they are failing to accumulate the numbers to (for example) irretrievably crunch sufficiently large sections of UKR's hydroelectric grid, or railway network.

Too little, too late and failing to improve over the original mistake.

Seems to be the RUS tag line of this entire war.

[Erwin]

1 hour ago, Reclaimer said:

Anyways, I hadn't seen this article posted yet, and I wanted to share it: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/putin-war-propaganda-russian-support/629714/

Very good article.  What I read was that we in the west must not fall into the trap of interpreting Russian motivations and thinking as if they were in the west and "just like us".  After hundreds of years of despotic governments from Czars thru Stalin etc. , the Russian (and Chinese) attitudes are largely hard-wired and it would take many generations to change that instinctive innate thinking.

The major reason I predict this conflict will drag on and on (unless Putin is removed - which is highly unlikely for the reasons earlier stated) is that the Russians are conditioned to feel threatened by the west... and probably the rest of the world.  There is no love lost between Russia and China.  So, conflict between them may be the most positive outcome of the Ukrainian war.  

The other reason for an extended conflict - until the west gets bored and domestic pressure builds for an end to the price hikes and shortages - is that one needs to appreciate that the living standards for most ordinary Russians has always been poor. That means that western sanctions and empty shelves make very little difference to the majority - things have always been tough for the ordinary Russian/Soviet citizen and the Russians expect life to be tough.  I spent time in USSR during the Soviet era and post Soviet... and my recollection of meeting people was of deep cynicism and fatalism - they expected to be treated like dirt.  It doesn't surprise me that there is widespread looting - just like at the end of WW2. 

The ordinary Russian has hardly anything compared to us lucky ones in the west.  However, they will fight defensively very tenaciously.  That is the main problem.  Winkling out Russian defenders from strategically vital areas of Ukraine will probably get very nasty and costly.  However, not winkling the Russians out will result in a rump state with much of Ukrainian assets in Russian ownership.  Ukraine exports mainly steel, coal, fuel and petroleum products, chemicals, machinery and transport equipment and grains like barley, corn and wheat.  And that is bad for the world - especially wheat exports etc.  I already see empty bread shelves in my supermarkets here in the US.  

FYI:  Exports The top exports of Ukraine are Seed Oils ($5.32B), Corn ($4.89B), Wheat ($4.61B), Iron Ore ($4.27B), and Semi-Finished Iron ($3.03B), exporting mostly to China ($7.26B), Poland ($3.26B), Russia ($2.97B), Turkey ($2.5B), and Egypt ($2.39B).

Edited May 5, 2022 by Erwin

[Los]

I don't think so. If Russians are defending Russia is one thing, defending Ukrainian objectives not so much, especially with all the firepower that can be brought to bear on them. Add that to the fact that the Russian officers themselves at all levels don't really now what they are doing, a complete lack of professionalism from top to bottom, trashed/incompetent logistics. Russia spent the past ten years building the wrong military to fight this war. 

[Reclaimer]

35 minutes ago, Erwin said:

I already see empty bread shelves in my supermarkets here in the US.

I'm pretty sure this is due to ongoing supply chain disruptions from the pandemic, not the war. The U.S. is a major wheat exporter. The loss or reduction of Ukrainian wheat exports is mostly going to be felt in places like China (among others), which doesn't produce anywhere near enough food domestically to feed its population.

27 minutes ago, Los said:

I don't think so. If Russians are defending Russia is one thing, defending Ukrainian objectives not so much, especially with all the firepower that can be brought to bear on them. Add that to the fact that the Russian officers themselves at all levels don't really now what they are doing, a complete lack of professionalism from top to bottom, trashed/incompetent logistics. Russia spent the past ten years building the wrong military to fight this war.

This is very much in line with what I got from the Atlantic article that I posted. The Russian soldiers in that article did not strike me as having "not one step back" type attitudes at all. By the end of their occupation, it seemed that whatever enthusiasm they had at the beginning had long since evaporated.

[The_Capt]

34 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Ukraine exports mainly steel, coal, fuel and petroleum products, chemicals, machinery and transport equipment and grains like barley, corn and wheat.  And that is bad for the world - especially wheat exports etc.  I already see empty bread shelves in my supermarkets here in the US

Ok, c’mon, Ukraine produces a lot of wheat but we are nowhere near dependant on them and neither is Russia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_wheat_production_statistics
 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1094065/total-global-wheat-consumption-by-country/

For example the US consumes about 30 million tons (about half of which is animal feed) and produces over 52 million.  Even Russia consumes about 41 million tons and produces 75 million tons, Russia does not need Ukraine wheat and is not going to die for it either.

Your empty bread shelves likely have to do with internal supply chain disruption because the US produces more than it can eat.  Russia did not need any of Ukraines resources, this is not about that.  Nor is Russia going to wage a long war over them.

Russia may try to dig in but is more likely to buckle as the thin arguments for this war hit further home and more Russians die.  And even if they do, they are quickly approaching a point where Ukraine has the more-better military, leaving Russia with the weaker military.  I don’t care if the Russias are made out of boiled leather and are willing to eat dirt and drink tears, there is no war in history where things go well for a weaker invading army.  Russia is not “defending” anything, it is trying to hold onto what it has tried to steal, that is a very different calculus.

[sross112]

57 minutes ago, Erwin said:

I already see empty bread shelves in my supermarkets here in the US.

The US is the world's largest grain producer and exporter. If there is a shortage of bread on your local supermarket shelves it isn't because of a lack grain being imported from Ukraine. Bigger chance the cause is a shortage of plastic for the bags than wheat for the bread.

 

57 minutes ago, Erwin said:

However, they will fight defensively very tenaciously.  That is the main problem.  Winkling out Russian defenders from strategically vital areas of Ukraine will probably get very nasty and costly

I think this is a common misconception and comes from some truly heroic defensive actions in WW2. The reason I think it is a misconception is because it is used as a special strength of the Russian military and it is predicated on some actions and not all. Not every defensive action fought by the Russian army in it's history has shown to have this "tenacity". Sure there are examples but it is not the rule. Sure they have a better record than the ARVN but I'd argue they are not in the same league as the USMC, Japanese Army, IDF or French Foreign Legion. 

On top of that this is a different war. Almost any people from any nation that have an ounce of nationalism will fight pretty hard to defend their homes. They might not win but they will give a very stubborn defense. The RA is not defending its homes. As much Russian state propaganda would like to make them believe that Ukraine is Russia and should be defended that way the soldiers know it isn't. They know that they are part of an invading army and the soil they stand on isn't theirs.

If they truly felt that way they would be way more tenacious in the attack as well. They aren't. The RA has failed to display almost all of the fairy tale qualities that we in the west and themselves have painted them with. For that matter they should be inflicting horrendous losses on the counter attacks around Kharkiv. The high commands operational art should be being applauded by approving generals in the west. Their famous armored spearheads should have shattered the UA and encircled Kyiv. Their vaunted arty should be wiping whole brigades off the battlefield at whim. Their dominating air force should have uncontested air supremacy across the whole country and their illustrious fleet should sail with impunity throughout the Black Sea.  

LOL, I think I just wrote a new season for Mythbusters!!

 

Edit: I need to type faster, @The_Capt and @Reclaimer are quick-draws!!

Edited May 5, 2022 by sross112

[billbindc]

52 minutes ago, Erwin said:

I already see empty bread shelves in my supermarkets here in the US.  

Don't believe the hype:

https://asmith.ucdavis.edu/news/russia-ukraine

[Battlefront.com]

58 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Very good article.  What I read was that we in the west must not fall into the trap of interpreting Russian motivations and thinking as if they were in the west and "just like us".  After hundreds of years of despotic governments from Czars thru Stalin etc. , the Russian (and Chinese) attitudes are largely hard-wired and it would take many generations to change that instinctive innate thinking.

The major reason I predict this conflict will drag on and on (unless Putin is removed - which is highly unlikely for the reasons earlier stated) is that the Russians are conditioned to feel threatened by the west... and probably the rest of the world.  There is no love lost between Russia and China.  So, conflict between them may be the most positive outcome of the Ukrainian war.  

The other reason for an extended conflict - until the west gets bored and domestic pressure builds for an end to the price hikes and shortages - is that one needs to appreciate that the living standards for most ordinary Russians has always been poor. That means that western sanctions and empty shelves make very little difference to the majority - things have always been tough for the ordinary Russian/Soviet citizen and the Russians expect life to be tough.  I spent time in USSR during the Soviet era and post Soviet... and my recollection of meeting people was of deep cynicism and fatalism - they expected to be treated like dirt.  It doesn't surprise me that there is widespread looting - just like at the end of WW2. 

The ordinary Russian has hardly anything compared to us lucky ones in the west.  However, they will fight defensively very tenaciously.  That is the main problem.  Winkling out Russian defenders from strategically vital areas of Ukraine will probably get very nasty and costly.  However, not winkling the Russians out will result in a rump state with much of Ukrainian assets in Russian ownership.  Ukraine exports mainly steel, coal, fuel and petroleum products, chemicals, machinery and transport equipment and grains like barley, corn and wheat.  And that is bad for the world - especially wheat exports etc.  I already see empty bread shelves in my supermarkets here in the US.  

FYI:  Exports The top exports of Ukraine are Seed Oils ($5.32B), Corn ($4.89B), Wheat ($4.61B), Iron Ore ($4.27B), and Semi-Finished Iron ($3.03B), exporting mostly to China ($7.26B), Poland ($3.26B), Russia ($2.97B), Turkey ($2.5B), and Egypt ($2.39B).

I'm not going to bother responding this time.  The last three times I challenged your points you ran away.  I even called out your behavior the last two times, yet you did not defend your points.  And as expected, you came right back without any modifications.

To the rest of you, I suggest not responding.  He obviously thinks he's above the need to defend his points.  Probably because he has no comeback to the ease in which his positions are shown to be full of holes.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

If you defend your country, you fight like you do when you protect your mother. If you try to rob the bank you soon get away when the cops arrive. The defender like this war in the Ukraine has the moral high ground. Kudos to the soldiers who fight for the Ukraine feel sorry for the conscripts facing these warriors. 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Don't believe the hype:

https://asmith.ucdavis.edu/news/russia-ukraine

That and the fact that US is a net grain exporter.  But hey, why ruin a great fantasy with pesky facts

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

If I recall correctly from Daniel Goldhagen, this photo postcard was sent home by a German soldier to his family, with a note on the back sharing the 'difficult work' he had to do in the name of the Greater German Reich:

 

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

That and the fact that US is a net grain exporter.  But hey, why ruin a great fantasy with pesky facts

Steve

I can't find it at the moment but I've seen discussions to the effect that all but a small proportion of wheat is actually consumed in the country that produces it. So when you see "Russia and Ukraine produce 18% of world exports!" you are really seeing a headline of about 3-4% of the world's actual yearly production of wheat and that's simply a reflection of who produced what at the price for what the market was then. This applies to neon, sunflower oil, etc. These countries were producing the export percentage they were because the were available and cheapest. This time next year, someone else will be selling what's available and next cheapest. 

Beware the Whole Earth Catalogue approach to analysis. It's an inapt way to describe the world.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Reclaimer said:

Longtime lurker, first time poster here.

And therefore you get the traditional "welcome to the Forum"

2 hours ago, Reclaimer said:

I've been playing the games for a few years now and I have to say that I have been stunned at just how closely the footage we've seen from the war tracks with what we see in game. Really impressive. Also, the quality of discourse on this thread has been amazing. It has become one of my primary sources for information and insights into the conflict.

Thanks and thanks.  For sure one of the reasons many of us have been doubting Russia's capacity to win wars, especially against a NATO force, has to do with Black Sea gameplay.  While it is certainly possible to set up a scenario where the US comes off poorly, it's far more problematic to set up a Russian attack scenario that winds up with them winning in a way that leaves enough to fight another day.

2 hours ago, Reclaimer said:

Anyways, I hadn't seen this article posted yet, and I wanted to share it: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/putin-war-propaganda-russian-support/629714/

I think I'm going to have to renew my subscription to The Atlantic sooner rather than later.  I let it lapse as I found I didn't have the time to keep up with everything I subscribed to.  Until then, a response uninformed by the article...

2 hours ago, Reclaimer said:

I don't really agree with the author's conclusion (I don't think that any attempt to convince the Russian population at large to stop this war has any real chance of success), but I thought that the story about the Ukrainian family that was forced to shelter in their basement with a group of Russian soldiers was really interesting.

It seems a lot of the Russian diaspora is rallying around the flag, so I agree there's much chance of things happening from them.  Especially because Russia, as a government, thinks that Russians living abroad are one step above traitor.  Adding value to another country's workforce while also depriving Russia of skilled workers certainly has got to be galling to Russian nationalists.  Just like Russians don't understand why so many ex-Soviet sphere countries want to be part of NATO, they also don't understand why someone born in Russia might want to leave Russia and not come back.

Steve

[keas66]

Wondering what part of the US you are living in Erwin ? . Plenty of Bread on the Shelves here on the East Coast .

[chuckdyke]

putin proved a point; Russia can't beat NATO without the Ukraine on their side. 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Erwin said:

FYI:  Exports The top exports of Ukraine are Seed Oils ($5.32B), Corn ($4.89B), Wheat ($4.61B), Iron Ore ($4.27B), and Semi-Finished Iron ($3.03B), exporting mostly to China ($7.26B), Poland ($3.26B), Russia ($2.97B), Turkey ($2.5B), and Egypt ($2.39B).

First, I fully agree with the several people who said any shortage in the U.S. is some random regional trucking snafu, if the shortage is anything other than cable news hype.

It is also worth considering the chaos that ~15 billion in agricultural exports being taken off the world market is causing. That is a rounding error in the world economy, it might not even qualify as a rounding error. For absolutely basic commodities where it is a bleeping bleep deal when a shortage hits, the world need to figure out how to run with a little more slack in the system. Paying a hundred or a thousand times more to clean up the mess later just doesn't make any sense.

This not an ANY way a lack of support for Ukraine on my part. As anyone who has been paying attention is aware, I think NATO planes should have been obliterating Russian tanks and logistics six weeks ago. Short of that we need to pump training and equipment into Ukraine until they can credibly threaten to march on Moscow if the Russians don't quit and go home. The Russians deserve to lose this war utterly, and maintaining any semblance of a workable international system demands that they do. I am just making a general observation about the value of keeping some more reserve capacity in the world food system. The next crisis is just as likely to be crop disease.

[akd]

“There is a false narrative that UAF success is because of NATO training.”

 

[chuckdyke]

Training by some high school kids. How to fly a drone. 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

32 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Short of that we need to pump training and equipment into Ukraine until they can credibly threaten to march on Moscow if the Russians don't quit and go home. 

"National divorce" (i.e. the breakup of the old Muscovy empire) is where Galeev is heading, and that thesis seems to me to make some sense.

But I don't think it is best accomplished through invasion, if only due to the minor concern of the 2000 nuclear weapons.

As I've noted before, I could see a postwar situation where Ukraine is booming and becoming a strong tech factory offshoring alternative to ASEAN and India. 

And over the next decade, the adjoining Russian oblasts find their own youth sneaking across the border to take lower rung jobs.  Their governors (Kuban, Kursk, Voronezh) will increasingly agitate for closer ties and less red tape/extortion from Moscow. And over time, Uke-owned maquiladoras spring up in Belgorod, etc.

(While e.g., that Moscow skank who was telling her boyfriend to rape Ukrainian girls could end up table dancing for the Vikings in a rebuilding Mariupol)

P.S.  Great discussion, the last few pages btw.  I have had to step out a bit cuz work, but keep it up!

Edited May 5, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, keas66 said:

Wondering what part of the US you are living in Erwin ? . Plenty of Bread on the Shelves here on the East Coast .

I wonder if for Erwin it's just the local bread factory had a breakdown.  Bread is made daily and has a relatively short shelf life.  Since a lot of different brands of bread get made in same factory, a breakdown of just a couple days could see shelves start going bare.

[dan/california]

Hey Steve, you could interrupt our attempts to run the Ukr general staff, and the world food program, with some information about the next iteration of the game.......

[gnarly]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Hey Steve, you could interrupt our attempts to run the Ukr general staff, and the world food program, with some information about the next iteration of the game.......

[Kinophile]

Theres some twitter rumblings about an attack on Mykolaiv...?

Maybe just excitable hacks hearing of local boom boom and equating it with mini-barbarossa 2.0.