How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, Vic4 said:

@The_Capt

No doubt that this is a sobering and disheartening assessment, but perhaps there is a potential upshot.

When this conflict presumably concludes with Russia entirely in thrall to China and isolated from the West, wouldn’t a likely result be that their immediate malignant intent will be diverted to China?

Given that Russia seems to be primarily motivated by (a) delusions of grandeur and (b) envy/resentment, it seems that most of their energy at that point would be directed towards who they view as their immediate oppressor (China) and to the extent that their designs against the West will fall into a tertiary status. This could be advantageous to the West as China will constantly be having to look over it’s shoulder and keep Russia in line, while Russia’s immediate goal will be to throw off the Chinese yoke. Thoughts on this? Appreciate your insight. 

Good question.  My immediate thinking is that China has 1) a more unified decision making structure (at least on the surface) 2) will not get as distracted as the west has been the last decade, so less chance of paralysis of action, and 3) with be ruthless in protecting its investments and interests.  All this adds up to a far more pragmatic and let’s say direct strategy between Russian and China that we have been able to muster in the West.

We are all very happy that Ukraine is kicking ass and winning this thing but let’s not ignore the Western failure in this thing from day 1.  We let things slide after Crimea with weak porous sanctions.  We dithered and eroded NATO and other alliances.  And we kept buying Russian gas, pretending nothing happened in 2014.  And we ignored Russian political and “covert” actions up to and including literally messing with our democratic systems.

I think China will have a much different approach.  But as you say, Russia will be their problem.  A problem that comes with a lot of natural resources, the Arctic fishing rights alone are probably worth Chinese pain on this one.  Of course if we were smart we would be ready to exploit that arrangement…we will see.

[FancyCat]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I was at a defence conference way back in 2015 and it was largely boring old stuff one expects hear at these things.  There was a lot of focus on Russia because of the Crimea but it was the usual "we will win through teamwork and capitalism" type stuff.  Then this old guy was on a panel that made the whole room sit up and take notice.  He was in charge of covert action in Afghanistan back in the 80s, which was pretty impressive, but his points on Russia resonate to this day.  His position was that the future global competition, as it relates to Russia, was which sphere that nation was driven or pulled into.  We, the west, needed to pull Russia towards Europe, and that should be easy as gravity of history and culture was on our side.  If Russia were to be driven into the Eastern sphere 1) shame on us for letting it happen and 2) that would be a very bad thing.

Here we are in 2022, this thing is not decided but it sure looks like it is sliding in the bad direction to me.  I frankly subscribe to the "who wins out of all this" as a metric, and right now China's position looks pretty solid. 

The problem with pulling Russia towards Europe is the grand bargain Eastern Europeans have suspected would occur with bringing Russia closer to the West, where the West and especially Germany and France sacrifice Eastern Europe to Russian sphere of influence and instead conclude a grand European alliance with France and Germany controlling the EU, and Russia controlling EE. Its one of the reasons why NATO's bulwark has always been the United States and not France or Germany for EE states. 

As this recent invasion has demonstrated, the Russian demand for her rightful sphere of influence remains intact. I would argue that old guy in 2015 was stating the same endgoals as the rest of the teamwork and capitalism people, only via some nebulous "history and culture" vs "teamwork and capitalism", but with the same reality bringing both to failure, Russia does not seek to join the Western bloc as a partner, it seeks its own Russian world, that may well ally with the West vs China but with the prestige, worldview of equality, and competition with the West and China.

In effect, as much of Western Europe is stunned to realize now, Russia was never going to accept joining the West without her own Empire to do as she wished. 

As I've stated before, China does not need a subservient Russia relying on it to survive. As Russia was never going to join the West without her Empire and the West would never accept a new Russian Empire, Russia was always going to be closer to China than the West, what China wanted to see was a strong Russia seize Ukraine, show the uselessness of the West to stop it, herald a new age of emerging power blocs, and strike a blow against democratic states, in effect become a strong ally to China, yes, China and Russia could compete in Central Asia and the Pacific, but again, the biggest Russian want is the gaining of her western territories.

China has to compete vs the U.S, and the fulfillment of that goal via seizure of central asia and pacific areas of Russia, is basically fulfilled by a strong Russia who will economically cooperate with China instead of the West. 

What is going to happen now is a weak Russia that cannot compete militarily or economically with the West, meaning China will need to secure Central Asia and the Pacific with investments to continue maintaining the exploitation of resources, and invest to rebuild a Russian military to actually contest NATO.

Yes, Russia is in China's sphere, but Russia was always gonna orient to China due to competing with the EU, instead of being a equal partner to China, China has to spend money on supporting a state that may well become a black hole instead of something that can stand on its own two feet. 

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I would argue that old guy in 2015 was stating the same endgoals as the rest of the teamwork and capitalism people, only via some nebulous "history and culture" vs "teamwork and capitalism"

Heh, given the conference and this guys background, I am pretty sure that was not what he was saying at all. 

But your point is a valid one, Russia has always been geopolitically difficult.  I don’t buy that they were destined to wind up in Chinas orbit, especially given their history.  I seriously doubt that their current trajectory was the desired “fall back”.  The issue was, and still is the Russia regime, who would not negotiate in good faith with the West and whose reach was pure fantasy, that of a re-born USSR.

Regardless, we are where we are now and I do not any hope of re-normalization of Russia and the west anytime soon, if at all in my lifetime.

[FancyCat]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I think China will have a much different approach.  But as you say, Russia will be their problem.  A problem that comes with a lot of natural resources, the Arctic fishing rights alone are probably worth Chinese pain on this one.  Of course if we were smart we would be ready to exploit that arrangement…we will see.

You think Arctic fishing rights is worth the Chinese pain of having to invest resources, time, and money to Russia to exploit the resources? Most of Russia's economic output is geared to Europe, China can't replace the business done with Europe, to even get the business done with Russia up to the level of Europe requires investment to gear up to be worth the same.

Russia has shown itself incapable of competing militarily with NATO, and Russian capital wasn't enough to fund a navy, army and airforce to match NATO or even seemingly compete, and that was before sanctions, Arctic fishing, hell Arctic transit routes would require China to invest a ungodly amount to build up a Russian navy, air force and army worth a damn to compete against NATO. 

This is way more pain than what China probably calculated before the invasion of Ukraine, and had China known the Russian tiger was actually paper origami, theres a very good chance China would have strongly come out against Russia privately to try and stop them from burning themselves alive as they are doing now. 

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

You think Arctic fishing rights is worth the Chinese pain of having to invest resources, time, and money to Russia to exploit the resources?

Yes I do.  Do a quick search of Chinese fishing and food security, it is no small issue for them, nor for us with respect to what is emerging in the Arctic.  As to the rest, China has invested trillions globally to secure access to resources, it will do the same with Russia, to a point.

I do not think China will care about replacing Europe as much as simply accessing Russian resources for as cheaply as possible, which has been their playbook globally.

Arctic fishing…why do they need a navy or airforce?  They just need to secure the rights to do it in the Russian controlled Arctic Ocean and their massive fishing fleets will do the rest.  Chinas signalling for the Arctic are not exactly a secret

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/05/11/chinas-strategic-interest-in-the-arctic-goes-beyond-economics/

http://english.www.gov.cn/archive/white_paper/2018/01/26/content_281476026660336.htm

https://www.brookings.edu/research/northern-expedition-chinas-arctic-activities-and-ambitions/

And the result of this war likely just gave them a boost.

[asurob]

1 hour ago, DMS said:

OMG, how men can be so naive. Random dude reads text, everyone: "oh, it's a stunning truth!" I remember CNN video with that "phone call intercepts". 1-st episode: "we raped 16 year girl" (to woman, must be "wife"), 2-nd: "we eat dogs", 3-rd: "I hate their medals, we suffer here" (realistic one!). In 3-rd episode actor even didn't try to imitate Russian accent, must be from Poland or Baltic. 1-st world war British propaganda was more sophisticated. You believe in everything you are fed, it's amazing. And that is wargaming forum, where people read books about WWII and must have higher erudition. 

And you compose theories about broken Russian nature, based on this!

It's pretty simple math dude.  If there was one episode of this or two...we could say...outlying data....in data there are always extremes and this behavior is extreme.  But it has happened too often in the two (now third month) months of this war.  Further, Russia attacked Ukraine...for no other reason than the fact that Russia doesn't think Ukraine needs to exist as a country.  Sure Putin gave the order, but those orders are being followed by soldiers who for the most part look down on their little brothers as less than human.  Again, actions...simply put it has happened too often and the evidence is fairly overwhelming (Just look at Bucha) to believe that this is in fact the nature of the Russian soldier...don't get me started on history or how the Soviet's raped their way across eastern Europe (and china after they declared war against Japan) during the tail end of WW2.  If it quacks like a duck...it's a duck.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, DMS said:

OMG, how men can be so naive. Random dude reads text, everyone: "oh, it's a stunning truth!" I remember CNN video with that "phone call intercepts". 1-st episode: "we raped 16 year girl" (to woman, must be "wife"), 2-nd: "we eat dogs", 3-rd: "I hate their medals, we suffer here" (realistic one!). In 3-rd episode actor even didn't try to imitate Russian accent, must be from Poland or Baltic. 1-st world war British propaganda was more sophisticated. You believe in everything you are fed, it's amazing. And that is wargaming forum, where people read books about WWII and must have higher erudition. 

And you compose theories about broken Russian nature, based on this!

I really don't think we need to go further than Russian state tv itself to figure out the current and deeply unfortunate state of the Russian zeitgeist:

 

[sross112]

On the 72nd Mechanized Brigade facebook page is a video they posted a couple hours ago. In it about the 1:40 mark they are showing F-16's. I hadn't heard anything about them being given to Ukraine but maybe so?

https://www.facebook.com/72.brigade.best/

Edit: the subtitles were all in Ukrainian so I'm not sure what it says, but the way it was portrayed was like they were getting them.

Edited May 4, 2022 by sross112

[danfrodo]

that's some really sick s--t on Putin-TV.

Can't wait for the 'stab in the back' mythology to take hold in Russia to explain this.  The groundwork already being prepared.  How stupid does a country need to be to not see how utterly self destructive this is?

And China I think very much does see that.  They are way more interconnnected w the world than Russia.  I wonder how much of China's nationalistic talk is for domestic audience.  That's what happens in US -- politicians posturing to be the tough guy, blah blah blah, spouting uber nationalistic stuff that outside world doesn't realize is really just for domestic politics.

[Cederic]

6 hours ago, Nicdain said:

https://www.cityam.com/kremlin-on-high-alert-as-coup-rumours-grow-in-moscow-disgruntled-generals-join-fsb-looking-to-oust-putin-and-end-ukraine-war/

Coup rumors in Moscow according to City AM, a financial british newspaper. How reliable? 

City AM's target market is workers in 'the City', i.e. the heart of the London financial markets. So a lot of well informed intelligent readers with the ability to spot and reject made-up nonsense.

That's reflected in the specific article cited. It's very clearly reporting on speculation and rumours being shared elsewhere without pretending that there's any solid evidence or that readers should believe the rumours.

If you're trading on international markets, managing funds, providing financial advice and guidance to multinational businesses, you want to know about those rumours - true or not they represent a source of risk that needs to be considered, priced into deals, mitigated and managed as part of business.

So I think the story is a good one, but primarily it's drawing attention to the potential for a coup in Russia to people that lack the off-mainstream information sources providing so much value in this thread.

[FancyCat]

18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Yes I do.  Do a quick search of Chinese fishing and food security, it is no small issue for them, nor for us with respect to what is emerging in the Arctic.  As to the rest, China has invested trillions globally to secure access to resources, it will do the same with Russia, to a point.

I do not think China will care about replacing Europe as much as simply accessing Russian resources for as cheaply as possible, which has been their playbook globally.

Arctic fishing…why do they need a navy or airforce?  They just need to secure the rights to do it in the Russian controlled Arctic Ocean and their massive fishing fleets will do the rest.  Chinas signalling for the Arctic are not exactly a secret

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/05/11/chinas-strategic-interest-in-the-arctic-goes-beyond-economics/

http://english.www.gov.cn/archive/white_paper/2018/01/26/content_281476026660336.htm

https://www.brookings.edu/research/northern-expedition-chinas-arctic-activities-and-ambitions/

And the result of this war likely just gave them a boost.

In my opinion, the old manner of having puppet states relying on you for money in return for resources, is a far inferior manner of control and benefit than economic intercooperation where both economics, the "puppet" and "puppeteer" strengthen each other and benefit from ensuring economic growth occurs in both countries. 

In that sense, the economic decline of Russia will have a impact on her neighbors and close economic partners no matter what, and increase the cost of doing business in Russia. Again, if the objective of China is accessing now and future resources in Russia, it will cost more in the future, than less despite Russian dependence on China. (if the intent is simply just getting the cheapest cost at whatever can be sent now, sure that will be cheaper, but it will run out, and investment required to get new sources, and that will be way more expensive to do, many high end technologies are from the West) 

As a result of the recent war, NATO member states are joining Pacific region states in ramping up military spending, any future conflict between the West, China and Russia envisioned a double threat model, Russia vs Europe, China vs U.S that would divide U.S attention and make it more likely for a successful conclusion of the conflict. This new situation, would require China to devote significant attention to Russia, same as say the U.S to Europe, except we can see a stronger Europe able to hold itself without as much American attention. A reversal of the prior expectation. 

[dan/california]

50 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

We are all very happy that Ukraine is kicking ass and winning this thing but let’s not ignore the Western failure in this thing from day 1.  We let things slide after Crimea with weak porous sanctions.  We dithered and eroded NATO and other alliances.  And we kept buying Russian gas, pretending nothing happened in 2014.  And we ignored Russian political and “covert” actions up to and including literally messing with our democratic systems.

So many of the failures between 2014 and 2/24/2022 were due to profound misjudgments about both the Ukrainian and Russian governments/states. Pre 2/24 the EU and Nato really did  not believe the Ukrainian government was a dependable partner, and that if they were admitted to the various Western clubs the best case scenario would have been a less functional, but more expensive Hungary. Like wise pre 2/24 everyone thought the people running Russia were sane, and had some grasp on objective reality, and what we think of as their long term national interests. Both of these delusions have been shattered utterly. The coherence of the Ukrainian state and nation has been tested and found match the very best quality super alloy made. Russia has proven itself to be profoundly dangerous and untrustworthy. Given the limitations of Nato/EU decision making processes we have done a mostly decent job of reacting to this new reality once we were slapped in the face with, at least SO FAR. There is great deal that can yet go wrong, but so far so good.

[kraze]

2 hours ago, DMS said:

OMG, how men can be so naive. Random dude reads text, everyone: "oh, it's a stunning truth!" I remember CNN video with that "phone call intercepts". 1-st episode: "we raped 16 year girl" (to woman, must be "wife"), 2-nd: "we eat dogs", 3-rd: "I hate their medals, we suffer here" (realistic one!). In 3-rd episode actor even didn't try to imitate Russian accent, must be from Poland or Baltic. 1-st world war British propaganda was more sophisticated. You believe in everything you are fed, it's amazing. And that is wargaming forum, where people read books about WWII and must have higher erudition. 

And you compose theories about broken Russian nature, based on this!

And that's exactly why you are becoming an outcast to the rest of the world and your main tourist attraction will end up being Pyongyang at best.

Instead of taking responsibility for atrocities your army commits and doing something about it - you are trying to excuse and whitewash them, making you literally an accomplice to everything your soldiers do.

Edited May 4, 2022 by kraze

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

In my opinion, the old manner of having puppet states relying on you for money in return for resources, is a far inferior manner of control and benefit than economic intercooperation where both economics, the "puppet" and "puppeteer" strengthen each other and benefit from ensuring economic growth occurs in both countries. 

So you mean like both North American and European (and Chinese and Russian) interests in Africa?  I am not sure many nations on the bottom of the economic food chain would agree that this “mutual development” approach has ever really been the plan.

China has a pretty long track record of setting itself to extract resources cleanly and it now has advantages in a weakened Russia.  As to negative impacts, Russias larger trading partners were in Europe, so I expect we need to get past that.

Again, I do not see this as a loss for China but I guess time will tell.

[FancyCat]

Thread on Ukrainian reinforcements being higher quality, and Russian reinforcements being of older and usually inferior quality. 

Now, that said, I'm surprised he considers the estimates of 20-30k foreign fighters for Ukraine to be true. 

 

 

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So you mean like both North American and European (and Chinese and Russian) interests in Africa?  I am not sure many nations on the bottom of the economic food chain would agree that this “mutual development” approach has ever really been the plan.

China has a pretty long track record of setting itself to extract resources cleanly and it now has advantages in a weakened Russia.  As to negative impacts, Russias larger trading partners were in Europe, so I expect we need to get past that.

Again, I do not see this as a loss for China but I guess time will tell.

 

Oh I definitely do not think North American, or European or Russian or Chinese interests in Africa are of the manner I'm referring to, but definitely only time will tell how things pan out. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by FancyCat

[akd]

2 hours ago, DMS said:

OMG, how men can be so naive. Random dude reads text, everyone: "oh, it's a stunning truth!" I remember CNN video with that "phone call intercepts". 1-st episode: "we raped 16 year girl" (to woman, must be "wife"), 2-nd: "we eat dogs", 3-rd: "I hate their medals, we suffer here" (realistic one!). In 3-rd episode actor even didn't try to imitate Russian accent, must be from Poland or Baltic. 1-st world war British propaganda was more sophisticated. You believe in everything you are fed, it's amazing. And that is wargaming forum, where people read books about WWII and must have higher erudition. 

And you compose theories about broken Russian nature, based on this!

What I am quickly learning from this war is that if the average Russian reflexively screams something is fake, it is almost certainly real and likely to be later proven with evidence.

My favorite so far was the Russian trolls running around saying the videos of the civilians in the shelters under Azovstal were all fake because of the superficial resemblance of one older guy in one video to the actor in the Ukrainian propaganda video where a symbolic abused Ukrainian girl in traditional dress cuts the throat of a Russian soldier.  Then two days ago the girl with her baby standing next to the “actor” in the basement video shows up on a bus leaving Azovstal.

And that’s the thing.  Russians don’t even think about whether or not something could end up being proven real later.  Just reflexively call everything fake all the time and as long as everyone else in your culture does the same, soon group think takes over and anything that makes you uncomfortable has to be fake without even really thinking about it.  I mean everything is, right?

Nothing is real but Russian suffering.

Edited May 4, 2022 by akd

[Kraft]

3 hours ago, DMS said:

OMG, how men can be so naive. 

Some scholars define denial as the final stage of a genocidal process. Richard G. Hovannisian states, "Complete annihilation of a people requires the banishment of recollection and suffocation of remembrance. Falsification, deception and half-truths reduce what was to what might have been or perhaps what was not at all."

Crisis actors, Jewish Nazi soldiers, Mi-6 planted bodies, Chechens sending pics of dead sons that were captured alive on TikTok, countless cases of at best complete disregard for human life and at worst openly hunting civilians on video,..

but yes, as we have already seen with your Bucha comments every video is a fake, every picture constructed, every testemony read from script, I am sure there are also explanations about all the mass graves verified by countless international observers

The glorious Russian soldier does no wrong, as has been proven time and time again in history. Take care not to overdose on the copium.

Edited May 4, 2022 by Kraft

[MSBoxer]

So Belarus has begun readiness drills.  I assume just some sabre rattling at RU request to try to draw off some forces.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/05/04/belarus-surprise-military-maneuvers/ 

Edited May 4, 2022 by MSBoxer

[chuckdyke]

Claims and evidence are quite different. On a lighter note, Cubans were performing better in Africa than the Russians do today. I wonder or they will show up in the Ukraine.

Edited May 4, 2022 by chuckdyke

[Huba]

Just now, MSBoxer said:

So Belarus is begun readiness drills.  I assume just some sabre rattling at RU request to try to draw off some forces.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/05/04/belarus-surprise-military-maneuvers/ 

There are the Defender 22 exercises going on in Poland right now, this sabre reattling is equally directed at NATO. Here's an English link:

https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/us-led-military-exercises-start-in-poland-30078

[db_zero]

Don't want to rehash what already been said. Look at the current and future demographics for China and you'll see a nation that's headed towards serious problems. A massive aging population and decline in birth rates.

China is not Russia. Russia is an exporter of oil and natural gas. China must import both in large quantities. Their economy would come to a grinding halt if that was disrupted.

China didn't steal the US manufacturing industry. US and multinational corporations willingly moved the manufacturing base to China to take advantage of cheap labor on a massive scale. The work is grinding, the pay is ridiculously low and the conditions are about a step or 2 above exploitative. Profits was the motive.

Even if we wanted to the US could never create the sort of manufacturing scale that exists in China and there is no way Americans would be willing to work for the same low wages or conditions that Chinese peasants migrating from the rural area are willing to endure.

If you think inflation is bad now, just imagine what it would be if the manufacturing was being done in America with the wages and benefits America workers would demand. That cost would get passed down.

People talk about Russian propaganda. America has its own form of propaganda. Its called corporate media and politics. American media has changed over the years. Its now all about money. Stating boring facts doesn't sell. Creating outrage does. Same is true for social media.

The politicians who are concerned about getting re-elected and funding their campaigns are all to aware of the power of manufactured outrage. Its sells, it generates funding and its far more effective than just sticking to facts. The American public has a very short attention span, by and large they are not going to pay attention to complex facts, nuance and complex details. Add to that all the massive gerrymandering going on it little cause for optimism.

China is a problem. It's not just Taiwan or the treatment of Muslims, but the recent events in Hong Kong is cause for concern. Like Putin and his cronies the CCP is concerned about staying in power. Like Putin the internal security apparatus and forces behind it is massive. It has to be. China is composed of many ethnic groups and things could get out of hand quickly.

The US and China for better or worse have a mutually dependent relationship in-spite of the rhetoric. Much of the current economic issues in the US is related to the Covid lockdowns in China and the resulting disruption in the supply chain.

China is massively dependent on exports. If that gets cut their economy will collapse. They are trying to move away from that model, but China isn't there and if you look at the projected demographic trends in China, the future doesn't look good.

How the US and the West manages the complex relationship with China will determine what happens. China has seen the unified West response to Russia's actions and knows any similar response to any perceived hostile actions by China could lead to sanctions that would destroy their economy in short order. China is more vulnerable to economic sanctions that Russia.

Like China its also going to be a challenge for America and the west to manage Russia, Ukraine and Europe if and when the conflict ends. Its easy now. America and the west just sends money and weapons to Ukraine and the Ukrainians kill Russians by the bushel.

Managing the peace could end up being the real challenge and given the broken state of American politics, the media and social media where most American consume and get their information, that is driven by the profit motive that knows manufactured outrage sells and boring facts don't, doesn't give many cause for optimism. You have to dig deep to get to the facts and most Americans would rather just have it spoon fed to them by whatever outlet matches their leanings.

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by db_zero

[Kinophile]

Belarusian readiness drills. There's an ironic oxymoron for you.

Readiness for what, if attacked? Fire a shot, turn and run? And if attacking...Fire a shot, turn and run!

 

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Belarusian readiness drills. There's an ironic oxymoron for you.

Readiness for what, if attacked? Fire a shot, turn and run? And if attacking...Fire a shot, turn and run!

 

I am still hoping that any Belarus invasion takes wrong right turn and crosses Polish border -- that NATO reaction would be fun to watch. 

[Reclaimer]

Longtime lurker, first time poster here. I've been playing the games for a few years now and I have to say that I have been stunned at just how closely the footage we've seen from the war tracks with what we see in game. Really impressive. Also, the quality of discourse on this thread has been amazing. It has become one of my primary sources for information and insights into the conflict.

Anyways, I hadn't seen this article posted yet, and I wanted to share it: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/putin-war-propaganda-russian-support/629714/
 

I don't really agree with the author's conclusion (I don't think that any attempt to convince the Russian population at large to stop this war has any real chance of success), but I thought that the story about the Ukrainian family that was forced to shelter in their basement with a group of Russian soldiers was really interesting.

[chuckdyke]

Variation of the Stockholm syndrome. If we see this war as a robbery on a grand scale.