How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[MikeyD]

Okay, the commander of the 49th currently is Lieutenant General Jakov Vladimirovich Rezantsev.

I located an interesting article entitled "Where is the Russian Army", often claimed to be a million+ men. The article lays out who is where as of March 24.

https://www.rebellionresearch.com/where-is-the-russian-army

 

[dan/california]

It is worth remembering that the ENTIRE self driving business/idea was kick started by a DARPA contest ~20 some odd years ago. The results of said contest were hilariously bad, but with steady grinding, an enormous investment, and the ongoing miracle of Moore's law, we are now getting close. 

[akd]

8 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Okay, the commander of the 49th currently is Lieutenant General Jakov Vladimirovich Rezantsev.

I located an interesting article entitled "Where is the Russian Army", often claimed to be a million+ men. The article lays out who is where as of March 24.

https://www.rebellionresearch.com/where-is-the-russian-army

 

That looks suspiciously like it was copy-pasted from the Wikipedia page for the Russian order of battle for the invasion.

[danfrodo]

On TV news tomorrow:  Russia expert says current Russian military pause is simply waiting for Putin to  revive, reanimate and re-arm WW2 red army corpses

For more on this we go to our experts.... (que experts who've been wrong from the start and are continually 5 days behind information everyone else seems to have ....)

"well, this would swell the Putin's forces in Ukraine well beyond anything the Ukrainian armed forces can possibly handle"\

"yes, I believe this was all part of the plan, to hollow out the existing force structure to make room for this new zombie army.  It's classic Russian military strategy"

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, akd said:

That looks suspiciously like it was copy-pasted from the Wikipedia page for the Russian order of battle for the invasion.

It is.  And it's on a very... odd site.  Note it mentions three people, including the well known LTG Hodges, without saying they wrote the article.  Curious.

That said, the analysis looks about right.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Someone posted this OpEd piece just a page or four ago

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-23/ukraine-invasion-what-happens-in-russia-if-putin-can-t-win

He sketches out 3 scenarios, the most interesting of which is the "Tehran On The Volga" (Iran type pariah state) outcome.  He considers that one more likely than the "Moscow Spring" (popular revolt) or pretty much what we have now but in worse shape ("Wounded Giant").  I completely agree that all three are possibilites, and that the Moscow Spring is the least likely of the three, but he's leaving out the one I feel is most likely to happen and the most likely to stay around for a while; "Different Tyrant" (keeping with his naming convention).

The Different Tyrant would be the result of a coup where the powerful elites depose Putin, not on behalf of the people ("Moscow Spring"), but on behalf of themselves.  If they did that AND agreed to a unilateral withdrawal that would get the West's attention in a positive way.  They would likely overlook all kinds of things they shouldn't.  Far more than they are already trying to overlook.

This would not likely last too long.  These sorts of coups tend to have trouble keeping their power-behind-the-throne structure intact.  Coalition autocracy is inherently unstable.

There's also a 5th possibility, which I think is also more likely than the Tehran On The Volga scenario; "Russian Balkans".  This is the civil war scenario where all of Russia's problem children decide now is a good time to get what they want.  Frozen conflicts unfrozen, local thugs with big dreams, disaffected local minorities within larger areas, etc. all wanting to do things their way.

But even MORE likely than any one of these is some combo that plays out over a couple of years or maybe a bit more.  For example, a "Tehran On The Volga" transitioning to "Different Tyrant", into a "Russian Balkans".  And if "Russian Balkans" happens first, then there could be lots of variations on these themes playing out concurrently in various places.

NOTE that we were headed towards this without the Ukraine war in play.  Putin, like most dictators, hasn't show much interest in succession planning.  There's a much better track record of repressive regimes surviving when there's a clear successor waiting in the wings, such as Madoro, Raul Castro, or family dynasty.  Even naming a successor just before death can make a difference.  I don't see Putin doing this sort of thing any time soon, so I don't anticipate a clean transition when he's gone no matter how he goes.

Steve

[John Kettler]

7 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russian Telegarm. Aftermath of the strike on the ships in Berdiansk according to the unofficail sources - up to 50 KIA

Haiduk,

The crew of a Tapir/Alligator is 55 men, which could mean the crew died almost to a man, but it could also be a blend of crew, dockworkers, members of other crews, too. And if there are WIA at the usual KIA to WIA ratio, then this is an even more shattering blow.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Battlefront.com]

So much said with one short Tweet'd video:

Steve

[John Kettler]

6 hours ago, akd said:

@sburke

 

akd,

This speaks, yet again, to what I've been saying about my assessment of the RuAF situation, in which the weight of the air effort is being carried by the experienced senior officers, not their underlings. All other things being equal, we should should be seeing mostly captains and majors lost, not lieutenant colonels and colonels, but the killed and captured list shows us no such thing. The less experienced underlings would be more, not less, likely to wind up killed, captured or killed in an accident, but they seem to be a veritable protected class. At the very least, this guy is  of rank high enough to make him deputy CO of an aviation regiment. Say that with confidence because someone of his identical rank was downed  and was indeed deputy CO of an aviation regiment.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

4 hours ago, akd said:

Convoy ambush:

 

akd,

That looks to be conducted from several hundred meters away, which is surprising given what I've previously seen of UA. ambushes, especially after reading that Atlantic piece where the retired US Marine was talking about how UA infantry did things.

Regards,

John Kettler

[slysniper]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is the key point people who say "tanks won't go away" are missing.  Nobody is saying that there won't need to be a ground based armored weapons platform that is capable of working in combination with the other arms of a combined arms force.  At least I have yet to find anybody saying that   What people are saying is MBTs might soon not be the ideal choice for that role.  And there are plenty irrefutable benefits of UGVs vs. MBTs.

For me, the replacement of MBTs by UGVs is inevitable because the ability to do a straight swap is conceptually simple.  What to do about IFVs, on the other hand, is less clear.

They already exist.  They might also exist in really good tactical wargames for professionals to figure out how to best utilize them.

This is the next big deal in ground warfare.  Militaries speak of capabilities that have the ability to be "force multipliers".  Drones are whatever is better than a force multiplier.

the replacement of MBTs by UGVs is inevitable because the ability to do a straight swap is conceptually simple.  What to do about IFVs, on the other hand, is less clear.

I see infantry having to be dispersed, the future is likely the exoskeletons concepts that are coming for each man. The ability to make a soldier independent and mobile but able to carry added needed items, weather weaponry or protective armor. 

A unit of such soldiers would likely still need an armored unit to carry additional supplies, so not so much as a transport for them, more as a mobile support base for them when they are in the field.

The things of science fiction in the past are soon to become reality, for sure this is farther out than UGV's but change happens much quicker now than it once did, when the need arises. 

 

They already exist.  They might also exist in really good tactical wargames for professionals to figure out how to best utilize them.

I kind of figured that was what was happening, what a war game can do is provide a way to test out possible ways to see what might be the best method to use new weaponry at a low cost until they can do testing and purchasing of real items.

 

This is the next big deal in ground warfare.  Militaries speak of capabilities that have the ability to be "force multipliers".  Drones are whatever is better than a force multiplier.

For sure what we are seeing in the present conflict.

 

2 hours ago, akd said:

A Marine talks to a Marine about fighting in Ukraine (and they go straight to the potential obsolescence of the tank):

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/american-volunteer-foreign-fighters-ukraine-russia-war/627604/

Thanks for sharing.

Just the view of one man, but one man who is seeing it first hand.

warfare is always been how to outsmart the enemy, been that way from the first time someone killed his enemy by sneaking up on him and clubbing him to death from his backside.

basic logic should tell you that, putting oneself in a slow moving, large target piece of equipment, that is noisy and hard to hide is not a way to outsmart your enemy in todays world. Unless tanks can be equipped with defenses that can defeat all weaponry that can be used against them, they are obsolete.

At least UGV's will provide safety to some extent to the crew or man that controls it, the equipment might not last long, but the person trained to use it will last hopefully longer and will be able to get a another replacement piece of equipment to replace it since it should be easier to increase the quantities of what can be supplied. 

 

[Machor]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

And they look pretty good in 3D too

Steve just leaked an aspect of the next modern CM title!!!

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Someone posted this OpEd piece just a page or four ago

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-23/ukraine-invasion-what-happens-in-russia-if-putin-can-t-win

He sketches out 3 scenarios, the most interesting of which is the "Tehran On The Volga" (Iran type pariah state) outcome.  He considers that one more likely than the "Moscow Spring" (popular revolt) or pretty much what we have now but in worse shape ("Wounded Giant").  I completely agree that all three are possibilites, and that the Moscow Spring is the least likely of the three, but he's leaving out the one I feel is most likely to happen and the most likely to stay around for a while; "Different Tyrant" (keeping with his naming convention).

The Different Tyrant would be the result of a coup where the powerful elites depose Putin, not on behalf of the people ("Moscow Spring"), but on behalf of themselves.  If they did that AND agreed to a unilateral withdrawal that would get the West's attention in a positive way.  They would likely overlook all kinds of things they shouldn't.  Far more than they are already trying to overlook.

This would not likely last too long.  These sorts of coups tend to have trouble keeping their power-behind-the-throne structure intact.  Coalition autocracy is inherently unstable.

There's also a 5th possibility, which I think is also more likely than the Tehran On The Volga scenario; "Russian Balkans".  This is the civil war scenario where all of Russia's problem children decide now is a good time to get what they want.  Frozen conflicts unfrozen, local thugs with big dreams, disaffected local minorities within larger areas, etc. all wanting to do things their way.

But even MORE likely than any one of these is some combo that plays out over a couple of years or maybe a bit more.  For example, a "Tehran On The Volga" transitioning to "Different Tyrant", into a "Russian Balkans".  And if "Russian Balkans" happens first, then there could be lots of variations on these themes playing out concurrently in various places.

NOTE that we were headed towards this without the Ukraine war in play.  Putin, like most dictators, hasn't show much interest in succession planning.  There's a much better track record of repressive regimes surviving when there's a clear successor waiting in the wings, such as Madoro, Raul Castro, or family dynasty.  Even naming a successor just before death can make a difference.  I don't see Putin doing this sort of thing any time soon, so I don't anticipate a clean transition when he's gone no matter how he goes.

Steve

Whatever scenario happens - in the aftermath the West should send an ultimatum that any sanctions go away only after complete nuclear disarmament of Russia.

Because anything less than that will mean another big war very soon - as Russia will keep threatening the world with a nuclear war and remain an ever present threat.

And if they refuse - then they should become an isolated backwards country with ever rotting nukes.

But who am I kidding.

Edited March 25, 2022 by kraze

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

On TV news tomorrow:  Russia expert says current Russian military pause is simply waiting for Putin to  revive, reanimate and re-arm WW2 red army corpses

For more on this we go to our experts.... (que experts who've been wrong from the start and are continually 5 days behind information everyone else seems to have ....)

"well, this would swell the Putin's forces in Ukraine well beyond anything the Ukrainian armed forces can possibly handle"\

"yes, I believe this was all part of the plan, to hollow out the existing force structure to make room for this new zombie army.  It's classic Russian military strategy"

Combat Mission Black Sea: Necropanzer!

And now we finally know what the Z stands for!

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, Machor said:

Steve just leaked an aspect of the next modern CM title!!!

I know Steve probably isn't at liberty to say, and I respect that, but that post and the one before it saying that UGVs "might also exist in really good tactical wargames for professionals to figure out how to best utilize them" sure do feel like a tacit acknowledgement that Combat Mission: Future Shock (Highly Classified Pro Edition) exists somewhere out there... 

[Vergeltungswaffe]

13 hours ago, Kinophile said:

MUST.

MOUNT.

ON.

TRACTOR.

Must. mount. on. Beechcraft!!!

[Seedorf81]

It looks to me that MBT's keep their current dominant role only if there is total air superiority.

AT-teams, even with just one or two guys in it, would have a much harder job picking off armour when drones and helo's with FLIR are continously monitoring the battlefield.

 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

hmm, I suspect the Donbass/Donets area troops might need some more training:

both videos absolutely unbelievable. Not sure if the explosion part is edited? but still...

[TheVulture]

19 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

both videos absolutely unbelievable. Not sure if the explosion part is edited? but still...

The explosions look very suspect to me. The camera in the second one doesn't even appear to move and starts showing a smoke cloud inside a few frames.  From that distance. I have a many doubts. 

But it still seems like a suicidally stupid way to handle artillery shells and propellant charges.

Edited March 25, 2022 by TheVulture

[Taranis]

27 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

The explosions look very suspect to me. The camera in the second one doesn't even appear to move and starts showing a smoke cloud inside a few frames.  From that distance. I have a many doubts. 

But it still seems like a suicidally stupid way to handle artillery shells and propellant charges.

Yes it's strange to me too (explosions).

As former artilleryman, the damage on propellant charges can have lots of impact like the danger of cooking off in the barrel, or with the moisture making "long feu" (I don't know what is the English equivalent, but the charge doesn't burn immediately but can later when you open the breach....) and mainly in a artillery POV change drastically the ballistic (imprecision). If it's for shooting in the corner, or on your friends, don't shoot...

Moreover, if you damage the fuze (the head) on the shell, things that are really brittle, the shell may not explose on impact or the way you want to, whithout talking about the risk of explosion when you let it roll down the road (some fuze have security by the way but you still risk to endommaged it).

Edited March 25, 2022 by Taranis

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

hmm, I suspect the Donbass/Donets area troops might need some more training:

both videos absolutely unbelievable. Not sure if the explosion part is edited? but still...

It must be edited. If any of the shells in those piles blew up, there wouldn't be any camera left, or people to make weird noises.

[Baneman]

4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

It must be edited. If any of the shells in those piles blew up, there wouldn't be any camera left, or people to make weird noises.

The activity doesn't seem staged though ... which is insane - although that could explain a lot of those unexploded shells/bombs/missiles if they routinely treat their ammunition like that.

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, Baneman said:

The activity doesn't seem staged though ... which is insane - although that could explain a lot of those unexploded shells/bombs/missiles if they routinely treat their ammunition like that.

Hmmm it doesn't seem professional, but does it really damage a shell to be rolled down a little hill like that?

[DesertFox]

9 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

It must be edited. If any of the shells in those piles blew up, there wouldn't be any camera left, or people to make weird noises.

Yep the explosions (both vids) are fake. The rest is not.