How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

8 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Those guys really like to live large.

Liked

[dan/california]

https://twitter.com/EnglishUkraine/status/1502513184351084547/photo/1

That is at least 25% of the total force deployed isn't it?

 

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://twitter.com/EnglishUkraine/status/1502513184351084547/photo/1

That is at least 25% of the total force deployed isn't it?

 

I like the note about deserters.  cracks in morale are good to see.

[dan/california]

https://dearmrputin.substack.com/p/yes-vladimir-putin-parkinsons-disease?r=8fxpv&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Really good article. She has a source, or is doing a heck of a job of pretending.

[Battlefront.com]

Uh guys... remember that video of the ambush of the armored column taken from a drone?  Uh... it looks like the Ukrainians have been taking CMBS a bit too literally:

 

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Uh guys... remember that video of the ambush of the armored column taken from a drone?  Uh... it looks like the Ukrainians have been taking CMBS a bit too literally:

 

Steve has a MUCH, MUCH better model.

 

[Kinophile]

Art predicting Life imitating Art.

Amazing.

But wtf were they doing that close, Jesus.

 

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Kinophile

[Vic4]

12 hours ago, Hister said:

Julia made a very good insight into why Ukraine happened and what might happen next. I worked with her some years ago - can only say the best things about her.

I wanted to post this yesterday but it seems it didn't go through. Posting (again) because it is a really good/concise piece on why Ukraine happened.

 

 

 

@Hister, thank you. That's an incredible interview.

[Doc844]

56 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Uh guys... remember that video of the ambush of the armored column taken from a drone?  Uh... it looks like the Ukrainians have been taking CMBS a bit too literally:

 

I've watched that drone footage a few times and I have to say those Ukrainians have brass balls.  After the first AT shot u see the russians go every where then you see the T72 take a shot into the trees and a clump of dirt blows up in front of said T72.  Well if you watch the area where the tank round impacted, just below it a split second after the round detonated you see a flash from a Ukrainian firing his AT and that is where the dirt blast comes from.  Bloke must have the biggest balls, staring down a tank, main tank round going off right next to him and he still gets his shot off and only misses by a fraction.  Says alot when the russian infantry support dismounts away from the ambush and Ukrainians are willing to face down an MBT.  Not sure how the russians are trained but in an ambush like that your best option is to fight through the enemy, your already in his kill box, you dont know if he has more kill boxes set up, so safest way to go is towards the ambush, with a f**k tonne of fire power.

[Combatintman]

9 hours ago, TheVulture said:

The command vehicles look like they're sitting in something like mud patches. Is that camoflage netting  as seen by IR / night vision optics, or something else?

Nope - they're sat in holes that have been dug by engineers.  If you look at the truck to the left of the vehicle that gets struck, you should be able to make out that it is at a lower level than the three vehicles to its left and you should be able to see the incline into the hole that it is sat in.  Of course they should have camouflage nets up but there's no evidence of that in the imagery and it is consistent with the whole pi$$ pooredness of Russian forces seemingly making little effort to conceal and disperse soft-skin vehicles at the halt throughout this conflict.

[Zveroboy1]

2 hours ago, Vic4 said:

@Hister, thank you. That's an incredible interview.

Yes great interview. The very end where she is asked how dangerous Putin is right now is pretty scary.

[kraze]

4 hours ago, Zveroboy1 said:

Ukrainian resolve looks really strong right now and justifiably so but how likely is it that if Putin follows this course of action and the situation just degenerates into a long stalemate with less offensive operations, that Zelensky decides to tap out out in the end and agree to territorial concessions in order to spare civilian lives and avoid senseless destruction?

Unlike a fascist country like Russia, where people look up to their dear leader and follow him unconditionally while all his bros are permanently in butt-kissing mode - in Ukraine Zelenskyy can't just decide to call a "cease fire", there's been (and will be) too much blood spilled - neither military nor people will ever agree to see russians come back again and continue what they've started - while doing a full scale genocide on the territories they've grabbed.

Again you mistakenly think that it's about grabbing some territories for putin. While it's certainly an objective - his main objective is to get rid of Ukrainians as people.

[George MC]

1 hour ago, Doc844 said:

I've watched that drone footage a few times and I have to say those Ukrainians have brass balls.  After the first AT shot u see the russians go every where then you see the T72 take a shot into the trees and a clump of dirt blows up in front of said T72.  Well if you watch the area where the tank round impacted, just below it a split second after the round detonated you see a flash from a Ukrainian firing his AT and that is where the dirt blast comes from.  Bloke must have the biggest balls, staring down a tank, main tank round going off right next to him and he still gets his shot off and only misses by a fraction.  Says alot when the russian infantry support dismounts away from the ambush and Ukrainians are willing to face down an MBT.  Not sure how the russians are trained but in an ambush like that your best option is to fight through the enemy, your already in his kill box, you dont know if he has more kill boxes set up, so safest way to go is towards the ambush, with a f**k tonne of fire power.

Hers a link to uncut version with analysis. 

 

[Zveroboy1]

44 minutes ago, kraze said:

Again you mistakenly think that it's about grabbing some territories for putin. While it's certainly an objective - his main objective is to get rid of Ukrainians as people.

I am afraid it is you who misunderstood, both the point I was trying to make and the Russian objectives.

I know it is not about grabbing some territory. Or rather it was not in the beginning but now that Putin's initial plan has failed, that might give him a way out.

Now you say Zelensky can't agree to a cease fire but what happens if Ukraine refuses to make any concessions? You are planning on having an unconditional surrender of Russia? I am not sure how realistic this is given the fact that Putin feels he can't lose this war because that would be the end of him politically and his downfall. So it goes on forever until either Putin is overthrown, the Russian military collapses or Putin decides to use nukes? Watch the interview that was linked above. It gives a good insight into Putin's stance and state of mind.

Quote

"he did not expect to lose in Ukraine and therefore he will not lose. He will grind the country down to a fine fine ash and it doesn't matter how many Russian soldiers die in the process.... he will not be humiliated by people he calls Little Russians.

By the way the reasons for the invasion from a Russian perspective were laid out quite explicitly in the leaked premature victory speech that was broadcasted by mistake two weeks ago. (I think it was akd that linked the document.)

Putin basically thinks that Ukraine belongs to the Russian sphere of influence, he sees it drifting more and more towards the West and if he doesn't reverse the course of history now then later it will be too late, becoming forever out of his grasp.

I don't agree with any of that nonsense but if you paid attention and managed to look past all the chest thumping, absurd denazifying pretence and the revisionist historical justification that was used, it was actually quite bluntly put forward for all to see in all its cold, ruthless and hyper cynical nature.

44 minutes ago, kraze said:

while doing a full scale genocide on the territories they've grabbed.

While I am sympathetic to the Ukrainian plight (I am not pro Putin at all even though I have a Russian assault gun as my avatar) and I can understand your anger and outrage at what is going on in your country right now, I am sorry but there is no indication at this point that there is anything resembling a genocide. The Russian army has definitely been targeting civilians and will probably continue to do so in a direct violation of the rules of war, but a genocide it isn't.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Zveroboy1

[Rinaldi]

5 minutes ago, George MC said:

Hers a link to uncut version with analysis. 

 

Great share, thanks George. 

[gnarly]

8 minutes ago, George MC said:

Hers a link to uncut version with analysis. 

 

So we should here no more complaints about CM modelling of rounds impacting trees now (the 2nd ambush AT round hit a tree....)? 

[kraze]

12 minutes ago, Zveroboy1 said:

I am afraid it is you who misunderstood, both the point I was trying to make and the Russian objectives.

I know it is not about grabbing some territory. Or rather it was not in the beginning but now that Putin's initial plan has failed, that might give him a way out.

Now you say Zelensky can't agree to a cease fire but what happens if Ukraine refuses to make any concessions? You are planning on having an unconditional surrender of Russia? I am not sure how realistic this is given the fact that Putin feels he can't lose this war because that would be the end of him politically and his downfall. So it goes on forever until either Putin is overthrown, the Russian military collapses or Putin decides to use nukes? Watch the interview that was linked above. It gives a good insight into Putin's stance and state of mind.

By the way the reasons for the invasion from a Russian perspective were laid out quite explicitly in the leaked premature victory speech that was broadcasted by mistake at the beginning of the week. (I think it was akd that linked the document.)

Putin basically thinks that Ukraine belongs to the Russian sphere of influence, he sees it drifting more and more towards the West and if he doesn't reverse the course of history now then later it will be too late, becoming forever out of his grasp.

I don't agree with any of that nonsense but if you paid attention and managed to look past all the chest thumping, absurd denazifying pretence and the revisionist historical justification that was used, it was actually quite bluntly put forward for all to see in all its cold, ruthless and hyper cynical nature.

While I am sympathetic to the Ukrainian plight (I am not pro Putin at all even though I have a Russian assault gun as my avatar) and I can understand your anger and outrage at what is going on in your country right now, I am sorry but there is no indication at this point that there is anything resembling a genocide. The Russian army has definitely been targeting civilians and will probably continue to do so in a direct violation of the rules of war, but a genocide it isn't.

russians won't stop until Ukraine is no more. Any "cease fire" and "concessions" mean they will just come back later.

So yes - it's either us or them. Russians made it very clear.

As for "anything resembling a genocide" - just look at what they do to cities they aren't in - but better yet - look at what they did in captured regions of Donbass:

Mass deportations, mass killings, mass graves (that they themselves filmed trying to pretend like they were done by "neonazis" and then russians just "discovered" them) - and that's just in the "compliant" regions. Where they had an overwhelming support and no resistance.

Furthermore - just look at what they were doing in Chechnya, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Syria, as well at what they were doing in Yugoslavia before the West intervened militarily to see what happens when "concessions are made".

Edited March 12, 2022 by kraze

[Zveroboy1]

25 minutes ago, kraze said:

russians won't stop until Ukraine is no more. Any "cease fire" and "concessions" mean they will just come back later.

Yeah I agree that it will only delay the problem and until Putin is removed from power, there will always be a threat to your country and Europe as a whole. So he definitely has to go, that goes without saying.

My point is that sometimes in war you have to put ideology aside and use realpolitik to resolve a conflict. As distasteful and unsatisfying as it might sound, a political solution is often the only practical way when there is a stalemate on the battlefield.

What I was trying to do is come up with a possible hypothetical scenario as to how this war could end. Your guess as to what the final outcome will be is probably just as good as mine. But personally I don't see Putin just folding. He could very well be overthrown by mass protests, economic sanctions, even a coup, who knows? But just calling it quits, I could be wrong but I just don't see it.

As far as genocide is concerned, I'd rather this word wasn't overused for fear it loses its meaning.

Quote

the deliberate killing of a large number of people from a particular nation or ethnic group with the aim of destroying that nation or group.

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Zveroboy1

[kraze]

18 minutes ago, Zveroboy1 said:

Yeah I agree that it will only delay the problem and until Putin is removed from power, there will always be a threat to your country and Europe as a whole. So he definitely has to go, that goes without saying.

My point is that sometimes in war you have to put ideology aside and use realpolitik to resolve a conflict. As distasteful and unsatisfying as it might sound, a political solution is often the only practical way when there is a stalemate on the battlefield.

What I was trying to do is come up with a possible hypothetical scenario as to how this war could end. Your guess as to what the final outcome will be is probably just as good as mine. But personally I don't see Putin just folding. He could very well be overthrown by mass protests, economic sanctions, even a coup, who knows? But just calling it quits, I could be wrong but I just don't see it.

It's not just putin, putin is a mere representation of his people. It absolutely doesn't matter who russians put in power - every single leader of theirs is an absolutely violent maniac.

Unless russians themselves suffer the consequences of this (and many other) war they started - nothing will change.

So the most realistic progression of this war will be AFU gradually grinding through russian army until the most combat hardened BTG are replaced with (shadow-)mobilized nobodies while at the same time russian people suffer from maximum poverty until Russia collapses sooner or later - and then - the most important part - the West must not repeat the mistake of 1991 when it ran head over heels saving russians from consequences - as they brought an absolutely insane dictator Yeltsin into power, who immediately started wars all around Russia.

Somebody mentioned Iran as an example of surviving similar economical pressure - but Iran is culturally monolithic, it doesn't consist of 20-30 ethnicities that despise each other and it isn't fighting several very expensive wars, while trying to keep several of its regions tame through applying constant force and terror (for example Chechnya is in a state of a permanent "counter terrorist operation" since 2000).

Edited March 12, 2022 by kraze

[LongLeftFlank]

Incorrect re Iran, but this thread already has too many tangents.... 

[Haiduk]

9 hours ago, DesertFox said:

If I understand that correctly that is the Territorial Army consisting out of ordinary men, farmers, clerks etc. Mean age aprox. above 40 years who did this feat.

No. There are no any limits of age or trainig level. Many of people with different age, combat experience and  training level are now enlisting both in TD and in Army (though TD is just a part of Army with own TD Command, brigades and battalions). Of course, first of all enlist offices selected the people, who served in army, who had comabt experience and who can carry on with a weapon. There is already a joke that need a bribe to be accepted in TD unit, because too much volunteers. As a told resently TD consists of "regular" battalions and volunteer detachments, attached to these battalions. If the first received almost military equipment (but not always), the latter receive only a weapon, so they mostly looks like armed civilians.

But also theer is a probllem - due to mass mobilization is a great lack of body armor, helmets and other gears. There is also big differense in equipment - some TD units have PKMs and even M240 MG, but some use DP-27. But even TD are equipped with NLAWs and Panzerfausts   

[John Kettler]

billblindc et al.,

Oops!  That below should've read company (+0 for total VDC strength in. the V force. Fortunately, I managed to get it right later on when. running the totals.

Am going to make a SWAG here. Presuming that everything V marked was part of the must stop at all costs special operation, my estimate is that we're looking at a true overall V force size of at least a battalion of infantry, with about a third being VDV. There were enough trucks of the type used for carrying troops to carry the balance of a battalion, and remember that BMD platoon in the second video, which means VDV AFVs alone amounted to a full company and a platoon, so platoon (+). 

Regards,

John Kettler

[Haiduk]

First spotted Russian loitering minition UAV usage. One of them was shot down over the center of Kyiv, trying to hit the building of the bank. The fragments fell on the roof,  causing a fire, but it was quicly extinguished

Looks like this is KUB UAV of Zala-Aero company: https://zala-aero.com/production/bvs/kyb-uav/.

It can carry up to 3 kg of HE, but this one reportedly carried 1 kg.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[John Kettler]

On 3/11/2022 at 3:14 AM, Taranis said:

Russian army "propaganda"
 

 

 

Taranis,

Yet more V marked AFV I see! Do you know whan, where or both this. video was shot.

[TheVulture]

Picture from Chernihiv this morning of what looks like a knocked-out Russian self-properlled artillery (2S19 Msta?) with 'O' mark

 

 

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by TheVulture