How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[OldSarge]

Just now, BlackMoria said:

Actually, not unexpected.    China and Russia have traditions of grabbing foreigners under trumped up charges and having that on the sidelines as a subtle threat to whatever the real issue is that resulted in the 'arrest'.  Expect more of the same.

It is right from their playbook. The US State Department is warning Americans not to travel to Russia and for those already there to leave.
https://news.yahoo.com/state-department-warns-americans-not-175452881.html
 

[Bulletpoint]

16 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So Putin now decides to take an american woman basketball star hostage?????

I guess NATO will have to give up now.

[chris talpas]

6 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Actually, not unexpected.    China and Russia have traditions of grabbing foreigners under trumped up charges and having that on the sidelines as a subtle threat to whatever the real issue is that resulted in the 'arrest'.  Expect more of the same.

Canada certainly has recent experience in this with China and the 'two Michaels" who were arrested and imprisoned in retaliation for the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou who was wanted by the U.S.  Coincidently they were released and sent home the same day Wanzhou cut a plea deal with the U.S.  They spent 1024 days in detention

Edited March 5, 2022 by chris talpas

[c3k]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Pretty good and matches what is already out there.  On airports, this is a western/US bias based a lot on how the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were perceived, not necessarily happened.  An operational air LOC is better than nothing but extremely limited.  For example in Afghanistan 98% of logistics came by sea and then moved by road into Afghanistan (at least for us).  The US has got a lot of air transport and can be more ambitious but the fact is that air payloads are much smaller than what can be moved by road or sea.  I have no idea what the operational transport capability of Russia is (someone will no doubt fill that in) but trying to supply 1 major operational axis by air is a very tall order, let alone 5. 

For example, a modern BG burns something like 400,000 L of gas per day, which is 2 x C17 at max payload (assuming you have bladders and re-fueling infrastructure setup.  Here is one map of the BTG laydown, doesn't really matter if it is accurate for demonstration purposes:

So if we take that single axis of advance in the center with 8 BTGs, it will take 16 full C-17 per day, or 32 IL76s per day (just looked it up) to keep it gassed.  Not food, ammo, medical supplies, just fuel.   The entire Russian fleet is only 115  IL76s (giver 'er take based on last week). So we are talking trying to commit 1/3 of its entire heavy lift fleet to keep a single axis gassed.  But let's say the Russians somehow pull that off and get it all lines up and synced - because they have demonstrated such logistical acumen so far.

How do you protect 32 heavy lifters per day when you do not have control of the air?  Those MANPADs mean you have to control a pretty big circle (pretty much from wherever the IL-76 are at 5000 feet on approach) and I mean control, not this weak lines on map we see here.

But cool, let's say you can pull all that off, you still have to get the fuel out to the BTGs in the field, so CLIPs across more terrain you do not control in which Ukrainian resistance, still with comms and ISR will be aiming for every fuel truck you have.

The point is that is easy to say "airfield, voila I have you sir!".  Actually making that work to support ground maneuver is something else entirely.  

C17 max cargo payload is ~ 170,000 lbs. Fuel weighs on the order of 6.5+lbs per gallon. That's a theoretical load of about 26,000 gallons. Call it about 100,000 liters.  And, that's about twice what an Il-76 can lift.  So, it'd take 8 Il-76 sorties for that 400,000 liter load. (Probably 10-12 because payload drops with range, and you'd have landing weight limits and other stuff.) Airlift is better than it was in WWII...but if you see an 18-wheeler on the road, it carries as much as any Il-76 or similar size aircraft.

[akd]

I thought the TB2 were Ukraine’s only armed drones, but it seems that is not so:

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraines-punisher-drones-hit-russian-troops-multiple-times-reports-2022-3

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, c3k said:

C17 max cargo payload is ~ 170,000 lbs. Fuel weighs on the order of 6.5+lbs per gallon. That's a theoretical load of about 26,000 gallons. Call it about 100,000 liters.  And, that's about twice what an Il-76 can lift.  So, it'd take 8 Il-76 sorties for that 400,000 liter load. (Probably 10-12 because payload drops with range, and you'd have landing weight limits and other stuff.) Airlift is better than it was in WWII...but if you see an 18-wheeler on the road, it carries as much as any Il-76 or similar size aircraft.

Well, lost a multiple of two in there somewhere then, I think it was kgs per litre.  So make that 64 flights per day for that 8 BTG axis, which is over half the entire fleet, optimally.  Point still stands, air only logistics = hard.

[BeondTheGrave]

14 minutes ago, c3k said:

C17 max cargo payload is ~ 170,000 lbs. Fuel weighs on the order of 6.5+lbs per gallon. That's a theoretical load of about 26,000 gallons. Call it about 100,000 liters.  And, that's about twice what an Il-76 can lift.  So, it'd take 8 Il-76 sorties for that 400,000 liter load. (Probably 10-12 because payload drops with range, and you'd have landing weight limits and other stuff.) Airlift is better than it was in WWII...but if you see an 18-wheeler on the road, it carries as much as any Il-76 or similar size aircraft.

The one thing that you guys are also missing is the real killer. After all dont forget that your aircraft is also burning fuel to bring that fuel in. A lot of it. A jet turbine is probably one of the most fuel inefficient motors out there. And to take off with a full payload, get in country, and land were talking about a big expenditure of fuel just to get the plane out there. A C-17 burns ~20,000lbs/hr in flight. Despite the fact that the Il76 is smaller than the C-17, I guarantee its engines are not proportionately more efficient, which will make these numbers even worse. 20k lbs is ~3k gallons. So on a short jog, say 2 hrs, from the rear air field to the forward air field you'd have to burn ~12% of your payload just to get it there! And of course that assumes a relatively short and uncontested flight, the longer you have to fly or loiter the worse the numbers get. Flying gasoline from one place or another is the single most inefficient method of transportation. Only an idiot would do it unless there was absolutely no*other*way. 

[Homo_Ferricus]

53 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I have been hammering at twitter too, and now i am not sure what slavic language I am being insulted in.

Is there any chance you might limit your hammering to just on twitter? Sorry nothing personal but your name is one of a few whose posts I mostly skip reading because you don't contribute meaningfully in the name of relevant sources, analysis or expertise. 

Not trying to create "shots fired" exchanges with you or anyone but I wonder how many other forum goers I speak for in this regard. I understand emotions are high and people have things to say, but it would be great if this thread was reserved for high-quality analysis and posting of verified (or at least verifiable) information as it relates to military affairs. And no, two-sentence posts that are merely jumping on the Russia-bashing bandwagon don't count as high quality posts.

edit: been active and lurker on the forums intermittently since 2001, not just a new guy complaining...

Edited March 5, 2022 by Homo_Ferricus

[Yskonyn]

I see discussions about fear of WMD deployment on Kiev when talking about the various reasons for NATO holding back, but I think a more accurate reality is fear of WMD deployment on cities like London, Riga, Berlin, Warschau or even Amsterdam that is one of the reasons for NATO to hold back.

But the fear of starting WW3 and employment of WMD on capitals of NATO members is real as far as I can sense from national media so far.

Enforcing a no fly zone and or creating a safe zone in West Ukraine by NATO would be seen by Putin as a direct declaration of war from the NATO members and if he’s indeed as cold and vindictive as he is made out to be, what’s stopping him from pressing the red button ? 
Wasting London is a far from his bed show, but would make him immortal and a sure marter should he be terminated clandestinely. Mission accomplished for him either way?

 

[Seedorf81]

11 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

The one thing that you guys are also missing is the real killer. After all dont forget that your aircraft is also burning fuel to bring that fuel in. A lot of it. A jet turbine is probably one of the most fuel inefficient motors out there. And to take off with a full payload, get in country, and land were talking about a big expenditure of fuel just to get the plane out there. A C-17 burns ~20,000lbs/hr in flight. Despite the fact that the Il76 is smaller than the C-17, I guarantee its engines are not proportionately more efficient, which will make these numbers even worse. 20k lbs is ~3k gallons. So on a short jog, say 2 hrs, from the rear air field to the forward air field you'd have to burn ~12% of your payload just to get it there! And of course that assumes a relatively short and uncontested flight, the longer you have to fly or loiter the worse the numbers get. Flying gasoline from one place or another is the single most inefficient method of transportation. Only an idiot would do it unless there was absolutely no*other*way. 

Goring, Stalingrad winter 1942/1943.

[Yskonyn]

Shell’s statement on the buying of Russian oil against low prices.

They will donate the full profit to Ukranian support efforts.

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Belittled?  not my me.  Thanks for sharing that. 

Note that I was strongly opposed to the invasion of Iraq, knowing then as I do now it was just a powerplay by Cheney et al, duping a lazy, incurious president into a gigantic mess.  And hurting your so, permanently.  That doesn't mean that all those kids that signed up & served were in the wrong, they were brave and served and fought and died and were maimed in something they thought was right.  I also, through reading only, not through your experience, know that the vietnam war was a bright shining lie, to steal a phrase.  So we agree.

The only thing we disagree on is whether this new war is justified for international intervention.  Is this whole thing another bright shining lie? 

You don't want intervention.  You may totally be right.  I at least want us to forge out a big safe zone in western Ukraine before it's (possibly) too late.   I am looking months out and thinking european nations will start feeling overwhelmed by refugees, and nasty demagoges will use that to gain power.  So my safe zone is about helping the displaced, keeping Ukraine alive, and also showing Putin there's a hard line he better not cross, while knowing that there's probably a refugee backlash in the near future.  I get that direct intervention is probably a really bad idea.  But I still like the safe zone. 

I can definitely support a no-fly zone if it’s initiated and patrolled by the Peoples Republic of China. That would actually be a win-win for Ukraine and PRC, but a lose for Russia.

[dan/california]

25 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

Is there any chance you might limit your hammering to just on twitter? Sorry nothing personal but your name is one of a few whose posts I mostly skip reading because you don't contribute meaningfully in the name of relevant sources, analysis or expertise. 

Not trying to create "shots fired" exchanges with you or anyone but I wonder how many other forum goers I speak for in this regard. I understand emotions are high and people have things to say, but it would be great if this thread was reserved for high-quality analysis and posting of verified (or at least verifiable) information as it relates to military affairs. And no, two-sentence posts that are merely jumping on the Russia-bashing bandwagon don't count as high quality posts.

edit: been active and lurker on the forums intermittently since 2001, not just a new guy complaining...

I know, I have been reading your stuff for at least a decade.

Edit- join date July 2005. I am usually really analytical, but the sheer senseless of Putin's fiasco has means that there is more to this than analysis. And there is remarkably little REAL information to analyze unless you speak Russian, Ukrainian, or have a current security clearance.

Edited March 5, 2022 by dan/california

[Lethaface]

24 minutes ago, Yskonyn said:

I see discussions about fear of WMD deployment on Kiev when talking about the various reasons for NATO holding back, but I think a more accurate reality is fear of WMD deployment on cities like London, Riga, Berlin, Warschau or even Amsterdam that is one of the reasons for NATO to hold back.

But the fear of starting WW3 and employment of WMD on capitals of NATO members is real as far as I can sense from national media so far.

Enforcing a no fly zone and or creating a safe zone in West Ukraine by NATO would be seen by Putin as a direct declaration of war from the NATO members and if he’s indeed as cold and vindictive as he is made out to be, what’s stopping him from pressing the red button ? 
Wasting London is a far from his bed show, but would make him immortal and a sure marter should he be terminated clandestinely. Mission accomplished for him either way?

 

Imo it's quite simple why NATO doesn't want to get directly involved: it will mean total conventional escalation and the level of carnage, even if it doesn't go nuclear, will increase several times.

Any leashes will come off and this time the war will be existential for Russia; so I'd expect better motivated troops plus zero regard for civilian casualties. That means 30mm HE autocannon clearing any groups of civilians blocking a road, carpet bombing, whatever is 'needed' to achieve short term goals.

What would even be the objective of the war? Regime change? Invading Russia will definitely turn the conflict nuclear. 

And even if Nato troops are better trained, do they have the supplies / hardware to even last for a couple of weeks in battle? Many NATO countries probably have fewer tanks than Russia has lost in this war.
NATO isn't prepared for a full spectrum war with Russia (although probably neither is Russia) and even if it will win it, it will bring more destruction with unclear political goals or outcome. 
And then there is the risk of nuclear escalation. 

[Baneman]

Don't know if this is high quality analysis, but, given the Russian Army's troubles with the mud, I was struck by the thought that if Putin did hold off the invasion to avoid the Chinese Winter Olympics, that decision could go down in history along with delaying Kursk to wait for the Panthers...

[DesertFox]

Within the cited thread is an interesting article about russian logistics. Interesting read.  

Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli - War on the Rocks

 

 

Edited March 5, 2022 by DesertFox

[BeondTheGrave]

1 minute ago, DesertFox said:

Within the cited threat is an interesting article about russian logistics. Interesting read.  

Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli - War on the Rocks

 

 

The choice of WWI as an example is a bit of a low blow. If were being fair AFAIK every war since WW1 has relied on a combination of maritime and rail mobility to move troops strategically, sometimes also operationally. You simply cant drive tanks and trucks and ammo across these huge distances. Youll wreck them. 

[Commanderski]

This was just on Fox News: 

 Financial services companies Visa and Mastercard announced Saturday they are suspending  business in Russia in response to the country’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine. "Effective immediately, Visa will work with its clients and partners within Russia to cease all Visa transactions over the coming days," Visa said in a press release. "Once complete, all transactions initiated with Visa cards issued in Russia will no longer work outside the country and any Visa cards issued by financial institutions outside of Russia will no longer work within the Russian Federation."

Mastercard effectively said the same thing.

[BeondTheGrave]

6 minutes ago, Commanderski said:

This was just on Fox News: 

 Financial services companies Visa and Mastercard announced Saturday they are suspending  business in Russia in response to the country’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine. "Effective immediately, Visa will work with its clients and partners within Russia to cease all Visa transactions over the coming days," Visa said in a press release. "Once complete, all transactions initiated with Visa cards issued in Russia will no longer work outside the country and any Visa cards issued by financial institutions outside of Russia will no longer work within the Russian Federation."

Mastercard effectively said the same thing.

Regarding this I also just saw a tweet:

It would be easy to say Zelensky got it done. IDK that there is proof that he managed to get Visa and Mastercard to act. As much theyre probably afraid of US sanctions and are pulling back till the situation becomes more stable. BUT I think this is another thing Zelensky can point to to suggest that hes pretty popular and can get things done. I definitely see a 'myth of Zelensky' evolving both within Ukraine and without. No matter what he'll probably be a celebrity after this. 

I really, really, really cant wait for the book about this to come out. 

[DesertFox]

12 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

 You simply cant drive tanks and trucks and ammo across these huge distances. Youll wreck them. 

From said article:

The Russian army has the combat power to capture the objectives envisioned in a fait accompli scenario, but it does not have the logistic forces to do it in a single push without a logistical pause to reset its sustainment infrastructure

Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli - War on the Rocks

[LukeFF]

3 hours ago, BlutUndEhre said:

My stance is that if you are an American, when your own border is being invaded daily, who gives a flying f%^& about Ukraine's border? I don't. I dont give a rats ass about Ukraine's border, I care about mine. I got sacrificed for a third world border 55 years ago and it didnt amount to ^$^&. Whether Ukraine lives or dies I don't give a flying $##% because I'll still be breathing$ tomorrow. Maybe I'm a totally immoral POS but whatever, I couldn't care less

You can be an American and care about both - in this case especially the fact that Russia has been acting like a criminal country for ever and ever. 

And, before you ask - US Army Vet, served in Iraq as a medic 04/05, saw plenty of death and suffering while I was there.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm behind the news then. Last thing I heard was that they wanted to continue to sell coke in Russia. I thought that sounded incredibly tone deaf... I guess somebody with more sense thumped the table at the HQ.

Yes, the did a 180.  When I heard that Coke was staying active in Russia my first thought was we'll see a reversal probably in a day or two.  You'd think a company that rakes in billions of Dollars could afford someone who could have told them that before making themselves look foolish.

Steve

[chris talpas]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, the did a 180.  When I heard that Coke was staying active in Russia my first thought was we'll see a reversal probably in a day or two.  You'd think a company that rakes in billions of Dollars could afford someone who could have told them that before making themselves look foolish.

Steve

Perhaps they originally used the same advisor giving suggestions to Putin 

[DesertFox]

This visual guide to the first ten days of the war is illustrated through videos recorded by ordinary people, and verified by @Cen4infoRes – an independent, volunteer-led organisation set up to combat disinformation

Russia-Ukraine Monitor Map by Cen4infoRes · MapHub

[Vacillator]

26 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

This visual guide to the first ten days of the war is illustrated through videos recorded by ordinary people, and verified by @Cen4infoRes – an independent, volunteer-led organisation set up to combat disinformation

Russia-Ukraine Monitor Map by Cen4infoRes · MapHub

That's a great link for those (like me) who like to see things on a map.  And including stuff like pontoon bridges being built, troop movements etc. not just where the pointy end has been striking.

EDIT : Watching some of the videos it seems that the majority of those involved largely thought it was just the usual 'exercises' and not what it turned out to be.  Sad for them if so, even more sad for others of course.

Edited March 6, 2022 by Vacillator