How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[womble]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ukrainian errors are much more likely fog of war, Russian reports are dis-information based on how the information war is going. 

In many ways, the Ukrainians don't need to exaggerate the casualties they're claiming on the Russians, because all (or most, at least) of these casualties are "above and beyond" generally expected attrition rates from before boots hit the ground over the border, and especially so, this deep into the war.

[womble]

9 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

That "selfdefense" measures speak volumes...Firewood and a barbecue grillgrate? I don´t think so...

 

I'd wonder whether those were "unditching" equipment rather than any attempt to protect against hostile fires.

[kraze]

5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

That "selfdefense" measures speak volumes...Firewood and a barbecue grillgrate? I don´t think so...

 

 

So this is how russian armored vehicles look after sanctions

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Oh that is just CLASSIC!

Those look like DPR guys, though could be LPR.

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

Not sure what else there is to say at this point...

Edited March 5, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, evilcommie said:

Is it me or are two of the Kontakt 5  modules on the turret missing? Are tanks being sent in with empty ERA blocks ?

AKD has documented a couple of T-72s missing their side ERA, so why not turret ERA on a T-90?  I mean, if you're going to half arse a war, why not be consistent.

Steve

[DesertFox]

I want to believe this :

 

 

[danfrodo]

wow, what amazing coverage of this war.  Definitely better than anywhere else. 

So, what does Putin know?  does he see these videos of entire columns captured, mostly intact?  Does he know that all that fancy equipment that parades past him in Moscow doesn't actually exist in the field?  My point is that he might actually only be hearing what he wants to hear.  When upper management (in this case, Putin), trains an organization over years that he wants to hear good news, that's what will be provided.  So does he actually have a realistic idea of what's going on?  I am sure he does at home level, but does he see these videos? 

On the fighting side of things, it seems that while russians advance along main roads, their supply/support tails are being attacked since the advance bypasses so much terrain.  So the russians don't have enough troops to both advance and to actually pacify the areas they advance through.  Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are getting nicely supplied by taking all the stuff that's supposed to feed the enemy advance.  This is amazing.  And it works because the Ukrainians aren't giving up once their area has bad guys driving through it, as would normally be the case for most people.

And so now he bans facebook, et al, in desperate attempt to keep folks in the dark.  But anyone w half a brain would know that doing this means Putin is covering something up.  So here's to hoping there's a lot of folks w more than half a brain.

[BeondTheGrave]

28 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Legit a fear of mine. I've had this dream......

[DesertFox]

Judged by the snow, that should be pretty new from today:

 

 

[Commanderski]

Russia seems to be the main supplier of heavy armament to the Ukrainians with all their abandoned and captured equipment.

[Haiduk]

Bellingcat located the place of morning video of Mi-24 shot down with MANPAD

[danfrodo]

9 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Judged by the snow, that should be pretty new from today:

 

 

I wonder why there was no one there?  no dead bodies?  no blood?  wtf?  And it looks like a large convoy indeed.  There's just so many of these videos now.  And like Steve said, if a company or battalion has supplies planned via said convoy, it's not like there's another bunch of trucks & supplies sitting around as a backup.  It would take a lot of time to put together a replacement convoy, which would also be robbing vehicles and supplies from somewhere else.

[Haiduk]

Russians in impotent rage for todays fails in Mykolaiv oblast, firing at Mykolaiv direction with Smerch MLRS from Chornobaivka airfiel near Kherson

 

[Haiduk]

Just now, danfrodo said:

I wonder why there was no one there?  no dead bodies?  no blood?

Cameramen says "here the fingers lay, but I will not film this close, but there under the snow the body lays, this is good that the snow and the cold, else he would terribly smell"

[Seedorf81]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

What conclusions are they making?

Russian offensive still on target, even with the logistical problems and bigger than expected losses. They, the two experts (for what it's worth, I don't know, one a former lieutenant-colonel?) I saw today, believe that the Russian Army will - "slowly, but surely" overcome the military resistance from the Ukrainian forces.

They also said that Putin has planning this for years and years, and that there surely are contingency-plans in case of unexpected resistance.

One statement that doesn't seem far fetched was that the Russians are used to massive casualties and they do not care   about that. Unlike the "Western" countries.

That's what I made of their comments.

I do not have the faintest idea if they're better informed than us here.

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

As soon as the situation in the Ukraine is 'stable' and victory assured in the eyes of Putin, we will enter the next fase, an all out cyber war against the West. To the world this will be sold as justified revenge or simply denied by Putin. This is gonna hurt us big time in ways most of us can't imagine. The reason Putin is waiting is that in theory this can bring NATO into the war. Personally I very much doubt that, but Putin is clever enough not to take the risk. The Russian people will love it and it will boost their morale to see the West in chaos. And then? Probably more pressure on the Baltics by causing as much unrest as possible among the Russian minorities there (a bit like Hitler used the German minorities in Poland and Chechoslowakia). Other possibilities are attacks on Moldavia and Georgia  and who knows what will come after that? One thing's for sure, it won't stop unless NATO shows it teeth.

Red storm rising (again).

Stable in Ukraine is going to be a while....

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Cameramen says "here the fingers lay, but I will not film this close, but there under the snow the body lays, this is good that the snow and the cold, else he would terribly smell"

ohhhh, thanks Haiduk.  So the convoy was actually attacked, but covered by snow.  what a great treasure for the defenders.  I hope lots of good supplies.

Glory to the heroes of the courageous nation of Ukraine!  I am voting for western air forces to attack ASA, at least drones, but I am unfortunately I am not in charge.

[kraze]

1 hour ago, MikeSinn said:

Have been following this thread since day 1.  I have found it a better, more distilled summary of current events than almost every other dedicated news site.   My thanks to those in the middle of this nightmare for the continued updates and new information.

 

One thing I have not seen recently is any updated estimate on total Russian losses.  The last update from 3 - 4 days ago  was ~1000 AFVs, 60 - 80 aircraft / Helicopters, and ~5,000 KIA.  This was from the Ukrainian government so likely somewhat inflated but probably more accurate than the 500 KIA reported by Russia.  

Not KIA, casualties. When Ukraine reports casualties it literally says casualties. Right now those are close to 10k and most are calculated based on stuff destroyed.

E.g. 100 tanks destroyed = 300 casualties. 4x VDV il-76 shot down before they could paradrop = around 800 casualties. And so on. It's obviously impossible to determine exactly how many of those are dead or are they just wounded (in case of VDV planes though you can say those are most definitely all dead because high altitude plane crash/fireball).

But press translates casualties as KIA for some reason.

Edited March 5, 2022 by kraze

[Bulletpoint]

17 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Glory to the heroes of the courageous nation of Ukraine!  I am voting for western air forces to attack ASA, at least drones, but I am unfortunately I am not in charge.

Thankfully you are not in charge. And I don't mean that as an insult.

[danfrodo]

Just now, Bulletpoint said:

Thankfully you are not in charge. And I don't mean that as an insult.

My rational mind thinks you are quite right, Bulletpoint! 

But I am completely enraged at this and am tired of cowering from despots who use the "watch out, I'm craaaaaaazy!" threat to intimidate others.  So I want a safe zone declared in western Ukraine, protected by NATO land and air forces (I think this is not an insane idea).  And I want US drones to start attacking Russian columns (this might be insane).

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

My rational mind thinks you are quite right, Bulletpoint! 

But I am completely enraged at this and am tired of cowering from despots who use the "watch out, I'm craaaaaaazy!" threat to intimidate others.  So I want a safe zone declared in western Ukraine, protected by NATO land and air forces (I think this is not an insane idea).  And I want US drones to start attacking Russian columns (this might be insane).

I completely understand your rage here. I feel the same.

In some ways, I think this war will redefine the entire game theory around nuclear weapons. They have traditionally been seen as a stabilising factor, as countries are usually reluctant to get involved in wars when nukes are present (an example: the standoff between India and Pakistan a couple of years ago).

But it's also clear that nuclear weapons can be an umbrella to allow dictators to wage war without repercussions. Putin knows that he could launch this war without any real fear of an invasion of Russian territory. Or even Western airstrikes within Ukraine.

In a world without nuclear weapons, this war would already be over.

[dan/california]

The risk of NATO ending this rolling atrocity/fiasco is obviously not zero. But there are risk of letting continue too. The flywheel of barbarity is just going to keep spinning faster. Putin is already at a point where it would take WMD to "win" this conflict. And virtually all evidence is that The Russian army will just dissolve under even minimal NATO air attack. I think most of would dissolve if there was a NATO OVERFLIGHT. The risk of getting in, and staying out are more balanced than most people think. Putin doesn't make it if this army just surrenders in mass/ deserts and walks home. At the moments the Ukrainians would let most of them walk home, another week of shelling...

Edited March 5, 2022 by dan/california
Missed some words

[danfrodo]

Bulletpoint, I have only one question for you that really matters: When the hell is Borgen season 4 coming out???  And if this war is delaying that then I definitely think NATO should intervene.  Nyborg would vote for the safe zone, I am completely confident of that.  This is Danmark's best export and I want it now!