How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

28 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

Some interesting analysis -a lot has been mentioned already in this thread, but adds some additional points on command and control and limits on manpower that can be supported by Russian logistics and their need to capture major airports.

 

Pretty good and matches what is already out there.  On airports, this is a western/US bias based a lot on how the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were perceived, not necessarily happened.  An operational air LOC is better than nothing but extremely limited.  For example in Afghanistan 98% of logistics came by sea and then moved by road into Afghanistan (at least for us).  The US has got a lot of air transport and can be more ambitious but the fact is that air payloads are much smaller than what can be moved by road or sea.  I have no idea what the operational transport capability of Russia is (someone will no doubt fill that in) but trying to supply 1 major operational axis by air is a very tall order, let alone 5. 

For example, a modern BG burns something like 400,000 L of gas per day, which is 2 x C17 at max payload (assuming you have bladders and re-fueling infrastructure setup.  Here is one map of the BTG laydown, doesn't really matter if it is accurate for demonstration purposes:

So if we take that single axis of advance in the center with 8 BTGs, it will take 16 full C-17 per day, or 32 IL76s per day (just looked it up) to keep it gassed.  Not food, ammo, medical supplies, just fuel.   The entire Russian fleet is only 115  IL76s (giver 'er take based on last week). So we are talking trying to commit 1/3 of its entire heavy lift fleet to keep a single axis gassed.  But let's say the Russians somehow pull that off and get it all lines up and synced - because they have demonstrated such logistical acumen so far.

How do you protect 32 heavy lifters per day when you do not have control of the air?  Those MANPADs mean you have to control a pretty big circle (pretty much from wherever the IL-76 are at 5000 feet on approach) and I mean control, not this weak lines on map we see here.

But cool, let's say you can pull all that off, you still have to get the fuel out to the BTGs in the field, so CLIPs across more terrain you do not control in which Ukrainian resistance, still with comms and ISR will be aiming for every fuel truck you have.

The point is that is easy to say "airfield, voila I have you sir!".  Actually making that work to support ground maneuver is something else entirely.  

[Haiduk]

Another disabled columns around Kharkiv and probably Sumy oblast. And yes, today there are snowfalls in eastern and some central oblasts

 

This video probably edited from two episodes, but one of them obviously filmed today after the snowfall. The soldier says this column has about 30 vehicles. T-80BVM tanks, light armor, one TOS-1 (already moved away) and fuel tankers, full of diesel

 

Edited March 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[BeondTheGrave]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Another disabled columns around Kharkiv and probably Sumy oblast. And yes, today there are snowfalls in eastern and some central oblasts

 

This video probably edited from two episodes, but one of them obviously filmed today after the snowfall. The soldier says this column has about 30 vehicles. T-80BVM tanks, light armor, one TOS-1 (already moved away) and fuel tankers, full of diesel

 

Snow and the prospect of warm weather in a few days? Where I live this is the recipe for the worst kind of flooding. Bring on the mud!

[chris talpas]

@The_Capt

Thanks for your comments on the above post and you make good counters on the difficulty of air resupply.  Wondering if the Russians could also press into service any of their civilian air cargo fleet now that they don't have a whole lot of places to fly? 

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Snow and the prospect of warm weather in a few days?

Up to -10...-15 at the night in next two days 

Edited March 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Mi-35 before and later. Location unknown.

[TheVulture]

Anyone remember the long lost days of last week when capturing a TOS-1 was big news that had everyone wondering what the hell the Russians were doing? Now it's just another routine day it seems. 

[Bulletpoint]

If casualties continue at the current rate, when will the Russians simply run out of planes and tanks?

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Haiduk]

One more...

[Haiduk]

Just now, DesertFox said:

 

 

This is the same vehicles, that in my second video in the post about disabled columns near Kharkiv

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

Agreed... but I think almost all footage shared in this thread has been from troops and civilians present at the scene.

True, but for the interpretation an experienced journalist or other expert is needed. At the dutch television there are some very knowledgeable military intelligence experts, which draw very different conclusions than most people on this forum. 

[The_Capt]

15 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

@The_Capt

Thanks for your comments on the above post and you make good counters on the difficulty of air resupply.  Wondering if the Russians could also press into service any of their civilian air cargo fleet now that they don't have a whole lot of places to fly? 

They could try but passenger airliners are not really tooled up to move gas.  They could move troops and other classes of supplies.  However, civilian airliners are not setup to fly in warzones, they don't have defensive systems or an ability maneuver like military aircraft can (e.g. approaches tend to be much longer and the MANPAD bubble has to expand to meet it).  To use civilian aircraft they would need to look at a SEAD corridor but you a now taking 100km long security/control operations type stuff.

Honestly, it would be easier to start a pipeline than use an air corridor in my opinion.

Edited March 5, 2022 by The_Capt

[DesertFox]

 

 

[DesertFox]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This is the same vehicles, that in my second video in the post about disabled columns near Kharkiv

Yep. saw that too late

[MikeSinn]

Have been following this thread since day 1.  I have found it a better, more distilled summary of current events than almost every other dedicated news site.   My thanks to those in the middle of this nightmare for the continued updates and new information.

 

One thing I have not seen recently is any updated estimate on total Russian losses.  The last update from 3 - 4 days ago  was ~1000 AFVs, 60 - 80 aircraft / Helicopters, and ~5,000 KIA.  This was from the Ukrainian government so likely somewhat inflated but probably more accurate than the 500 KIA reported by Russia.  

[Bulletpoint]

6 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

True, but for the interpretation an experienced journalist or other expert is needed. At the dutch television there are some very knowledgeable military intelligence experts, which draw very different conclusions than most people on this forum. 

What conclusions are they making?

[Haiduk]

Mykolaiv oblast today is a champion!

The second Su-30SM shot down. The same 43rd Maritime assault regiment, occupied Crimea.

Captured crew - flight commander and his mavigator. As if gad a mission aerial recon.

 

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, MikeSinn said:

and ~5,000 KIA. 

This is total loses KIA, WIA, POWs. Russain 498 KIA information appeared on 3rd of March an probably reflected information on 2nd of March

Edited March 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, MikeSinn said:

Have been following this thread since day 1.  I have found it a better, more distilled summary of current events than almost every other dedicated news site.   My thanks to those in the middle of this nightmare for the continued updates and new information.

 

One thing I have not seen recently is any updated estimate on total Russian losses.  The last update from 3 - 4 days ago  was ~1000 AFVs, 60 - 80 aircraft / Helicopters, and ~5,000 KIA.  This was from the Ukrainian government so likely somewhat inflated but probably more accurate than the 500 KIA reported by Russia.  

Welcome.  Standard wisdom right now is to take Ukrainian official numbers and divide by two, or add a zero to Russian casualty reports.  Ukrainian errors are much more likely fog of war, Russian reports are dis-information based on how the information war is going. 

[BeondTheGrave]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Welcome.  Standard wisdom right now is to take Ukrainian official numbers and divide by two, or add a zero to Russian casualty reports.  Ukrainian errors are much more likely fog of war, Russian reports are dis-information based on how the information war is going. 

Oryx blog seems to have a sober estimation of equipment losses based on open source reporting. Probably his numbers are inaccurate thanks to the source base, but probably the best we can get right now. And at least he links to a source for each vehicle he tallies. 

[Haiduk]

Another captured VDV vehciles, Location is unknown

 

Destroyed BMP-3 somewhere in Zaporizhzhia oblast

 

 

[DesertFox]

That "selfdefense" measures speak volumes...Firewood and a barbecue grillgrate? I don´t think so...

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Sarjen said:

No, that looks real enough. But you have to admit that we have to be wary of any information that is coming through. Clearly Ukraine has already won the information warfare against Russia. And  social media is just another battleground.

True, but the Russians have been obviously giving the Ukrainians the best propaganda they could ask for, and more, served on a golden platter.

That drone video of the hit on the helicopter shows us, again, that the Russians are horrible planners.  It is obvious that the Ukrainians knew exactly where they could expect a helicopter and set up both the drone and the AA missile team to capture this video.  For that to happen the Russians must be reusing the exact same flight paths over and over again.

This gets into the larger discussion as to why the Russian airforce is performing so abysmally in this war.  One of the major points made is that they have very little experience, training, and equipment to do what is called "deconflicting" the airspace.  This is the ability to make sure your aircraft don't smash or shoot each other by carefully managing how the aircraft move.  As with just about everything we've seen so far, the Russians only have a very crude and inflexible capability.  In this case it appears they have established very tight corridors and do not change them because doing anything else is beyond their capabilities.

NATO, on the other hand, has no such problems in their ops.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Another captured VDV vehciles, Location is unknown

 

 

Thanks to the unusual English language sign, I have geolocated this one to Mykolaiv:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/СТО+"TIR+UKRAINE"/@46.9028092,32.123125,11.1z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x40c5cb519c1c1641:0x36213214cbc1bb87!8m2!3d46.9522148!4d32.0849823