How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kraft]

Since Russia is starting to switch gears back to overcoming their shortcomings through city grid leveling, how would a Grozny^2 play out?

I have not heard any estimates about numbers in Kyiv but I assume the scale of resistance and destruction would be greater, with most sanctions already out of the bag and a ticking clock in Putins head.

 

 

And to those in here crying over borders from long dead empires and ethnicity rates:

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Kraft

[Geoff-Ludumpress]

20 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

The only region where the "pro-Russian" part called "Opposition Party - For Life" got over 50% votes was the northern Donetsk region

Check 2004, 2010 election results and voting distribution.  My point is that there is a historic ethnic division and that does not help when trying to resolve this conflict. I note that in the 2019 election was during the conflict lots of people did not vote or could not vote in the east, results therefore are not indicative of the historic pattern.

2004 https://photos.app.goo.gl/iYrBb4Wp4PKbJVsP6

2010  https://photos.app.goo.gl/XHo6A8Acdvk9ZSc97

Edited February 28, 2022 by Geoff-Ludumpress
additional details

[akd]

16 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Opposition Party - For Life" got over 50% votes was the northern Donetsk region.

And I’m pretty sure their platform was not separatism and rule by Putin.

[MikeyD]

The counter to 'leveling the city' is counter-battery fire. Ukraine is being flooded with anti-tank weapons, what it needs is artillery shells, artillery rockets and some nice forward observer drones. Realtime access to satellite data for targeting would be useful too.

[sburke]

22 minutes ago, Geoff-Ludumpress said:

Check 2004, 2010 election results and voting distribution.  My point is that there is a historic ethnic division and that does not help when trying to resolve this conflict. I note that in the 2019 election was during the conflict lots of people did not vote or could not vote in the east, results therefore are not indicative of the historic pattern.

2004 https://photos.app.goo.gl/iYrBb4Wp4PKbJVsP6

2010  https://photos.app.goo.gl/XHo6A8Acdvk9ZSc97

I'll suggest once more to keep on track with the direction of the thread and current events.  Continuing down this track is really not a good idea.

[TheVulture]

22 minutes ago, Geoff-Ludumpress said:

Check 2004, 2010 election results and voting distribution.  My point is that there is a historic ethnic division and that does not help when trying to resolve this conflict. I note that in the 2019 election was during the conflict lots of people did not vote or could not vote in the east, results therefore are not indicative of the historic pattern.

 

The thing is, voting patterns in 2004 and 2010 are from before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. I'd imagine that being attacked by Russia might have had some effect on voting patterns and reduced the pro-Russian vote somewhat.

And if people in Donetsk and Luhansk were unable to vote in the elections, whose fault is that?

[Lethaface]

6 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

The counter to 'leveling the city' is counter-battery fire. Ukraine is being flooded with anti-tank weapons, what it needs is artillery shells, artillery rockets and some nice forward observer drones. Realtime access to satellite data for targeting would be useful too.

AFAIK 152mm artillery shells have been supplied by Czech republic, and howitzers from Estonia (?) (ex-German/DDR) as well. Don't know about realtime satellite data but they seem to have good information where to direct their TB-2 strikes.

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, CHEqTRO said:

Let me correct it for you then

"Y es que en el mundo traidor, nada hay verdad o mentira, todo es según el color, del cristal con el que se mira".

It was written by Ramón de Campoamor

LOL, thank you very much! It goes to show how bad the memory of a 17-year old can be in a 72-year old! Hey, I’ll bet I can claim to be single now when I make a stupid or inane statement

[dan/california]

We have some pretty nifty ordinance for 120mm mortars, and mortars are not that complicated, or that hard to move. It seems to me some of them should be moving Ukraines way at the maximum possible speed. I am sure the three week course is better than the twelve hour course, but needs must when there is a war on. The students will be attentive.

36 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

The counter to 'leveling the city' is counter-battery fire. Ukraine is being flooded with anti-tank weapons, what it needs is artillery shells, artillery rockets and some nice forward observer drones. Realtime access to satellite data for targeting would be useful too.

 

[Vet 0369]

41 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

The counter to 'leveling the city' is counter-battery fire. Ukraine is being flooded with anti-tank weapons, what it needs is artillery shells, artillery rockets and some nice forward observer drones. Realtime access to satellite data for targeting would be useful too.

And then what happens is the Russians set up their batteries in more densely populated areas, similar t what the separatists do.

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, Fernando said:

The poem is from Ramón de Campoamor. It has become a saying in Spanish "En este mundo traidor, nada es verdad, ni es mentira. Todo es según el color del cristal con que se mira" (In this treacherous world, nothing is true, nor is it a lie. Everything is according to the color of the glass with which you look through)

Thank you very much for your reply. It makes me feel better as it’s much closer to what I remember.

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

And then what happens is the Russians set up their batteries in more densely populated areas, similar t what the separatists do.

If the Russians set up their batteries in populated areas they will literally drown in Molotov cocktails, they can barely manage to guard anything in open fields.

[chuckdyke]

Molotov Cocktail: The Old 'People's Weapon' Going to War in Ukraine - 19FortyFive

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Geoff-Ludumpress said:

The Ukrainian election data for the last 3 elections does not support this view. Clearly the data shows the west of Ukraine votes for a western leaning candidates and the east votes for an eastern leaning candidates.

You totally missed my point.  Russia acted in Donbas and Crimea because of its own selfish interests, not for those of the people there.  It would be no different than New Zealand arming and fomenting a war in Tazmania in support of local independence.

2 hours ago, Geoff-Ludumpress said:

Why don't we do what we did in Serbia and let em all have an independence vote(also happened in Scotland m8). Would that not be the most democratic thing to do?

Sure would be.  Notice that Russia invaded and illegally ANNEXED Crimea without a free and fair debate or referendum.  So you are obviously against Russia's use of force in that instance, correct?

Plus, Ukraine was thinking about trying out different political arrangements before Russia came crashing in.  But here's the rub... Russia didn't want it.  What they wanted was a puppet within the Ukrainian political system to poison its national politics.  Why do you think it created exactly those conditions in the Minsk accords?  Why do you think for 8 years of leading the war in Donbas against Ukraine and insisted that DLPR be reintegrated into Ukraine under Russia's terms?

And lastly, you should understand that when Ukraine was ruled by people on Russia's payroll they had no problems with Ukrainians being on the short end of the stick.  They only started to complain about being a part of Ukraine when their patron ran away in the middle of the night and escaping to Russia.

2 hours ago, Geoff-Ludumpress said:

That's not the role (historical examples) that NATO and EU took in the Yugoslavia etc., they worked to facilitate elections and protect civilians  NOT handing out weapons which will lead to escalation.

Oh boy, you really need to hit the books and learn more about what happened in the Balkans.  As in... a lot.

The rump of Yugoslavia was engaging in genocide.  Not fake Russian propaganda type genocide, actual killing of people genocide.  So I suppose it was a bad thing that someone came in and stopped it?  Certainly Russia had no interest in doing so.  In fact, did you know that some of the same people that started the war in Ukraine's Donbas were also in Yugoslavia helping the Serbs do their thing?  Well documented.

2 hours ago, Geoff-Ludumpress said:

Also the Ukrainian govt. had made (signed) a peace agreement, called 'Minsk agreement' which they were not implementing.

In law, a contract made under duress is not legally binding.  Ukraine had the option to not sign, of course, but Russia made it clear it would kill a lot more Ukrainians and take a lot more territory if it did not.  They made the best choice they could at the time.

BTW, Russia violated Minsk 1 and 2 right from the start.  But I bet you didn't know that.

Oh, and Russia was in violation of international law when it did all of this.  Just in case you missed that part too.

2 hours ago, Geoff-Ludumpress said:

I don't know many experts in this field who are surprised at where we are now. The only people who are shocked are the public cos they've had to stop watching football.

Surprise is what happens when you aren't paying attention. I've been studying Russia and the Soviet Union for almost 30 years.  I have been studying Russia's aggression towards its neighbors pretty intensely since 2014.  And before then, enough that I was able to write the backstory to CM Black Sea 2 years before Russia invaded the first time and Putin did almost exactly as we predicted.  Who knows, maybe it was a lucky guess?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

I'll suggest once more to keep on track with the direction of the thread and current events.  Continuing down this track is really not a good idea.

Damn, you're right.  I keep feeding people who push Kremlin talking points.  But it is soooooooooo easy to trash them with facts, I have trouble resisting.

Plus, what else am I supposed to do with all this knowledge?  I can tell you one thing, my wife doesn't have much patience for it. "OK, that was interesting.  But can we please get to making dinner now?"

Steve

[Lethaface]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Damn, you're right.  I keep feeding people who push Kremlin talking points.  But it is soooooooooo easy to trash them with facts, I have trouble resisting.

Plus, what else am I supposed to do with all this knowledge?  I can tell you one thing, my wife doesn't have much patience for it. "OK, that was interesting.  But can we please get to making dinner now?"

Steve

Better train on forum trolls

[chuckdyke]

Democracy in Ukraine and Russia. Somebody summarized it with an analogy 0 to 10. Russia scores a 2 and the Ukraine a 6. A 6 is no way perfect but a lot better than a 2.

[DesertFox]

4 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Democracy in Ukraine and Russia. Somebody summarized it with an analogy 0 to 10. Russia scores a 2 and the Ukraine a 6. A 6 is no way perfect but a lot better than a 2.

Absolutely. Democracy isn´t perfect, but it is way better than everything else.

[danfrodo]

Good, drop these pointless legal-points-by-imbeciles discusssions.  For Putin all these points are all just excuses for taking over territory, and that's what he cares about.  Which is some serious 1939 level stupidity.  I dunno, maybe spend all that energy making your country better, ya f-ing murderous psychopath?

 

[chuckdyke]

My parents were Dutch and after WW 2 there was an unwritten protocol. Never again there are no two ways about it. Russia has broken that protocol. NATO and the EU were the tools which achieved over 70 years of peace. The question is what to do with the incalcitrant bully in the neighbourhood? Only one option gang together and bash him up. We only started taking his pocket money from him. But his dear mom (Russia)is paying for it. 

[billbindc]

Folks...billbindc here...who you may remember from the benighted days of dosomefink. Been talking to a lot of folks and I'd say the "Putin has lost it" thing is over rated and on some level the Russians trying to benefit from madman theory. Putin has been a Russian imperialist forever. It's been his idee fixe since the fall of the USSR. In one "near abroad" country after another, he's either coerced them back into the fold (Chechenia), enforced informal hegemony (Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine) or attacked them outright (Ukraine, Georgia). He has also constantly tested the limits from corrupt influence to outright assassination (Salisbury anyone?). What he's doing now isn't new, it is simply a reflection of the greater abilities he believes he possesses. At no time has he behaved suicidally.  He will rattle sabers and he will do what he thinks he can get away with. The smart thing for us to do is remain cool, stay out of direct conflict and give every boot/5.56 round/Javelin/MRE to the Ukrainians we can lay our hands on.  

[LongLeftFlank]

More from Dobrev here, a bit more of what's going on on the attacking side....

 

[BornGinger]

Quote

I genuinely wonder if NATO is going to send in a 'peace keeping' force to western Ukraine to hold open the door.

That would not be a good decision. If NATO is sending in troops to keep a route open to ensure that military equipment reaches Ukraine they are also actively supporting Ukraine in this war with soldiers. Although UN hasn't been very good in their so called "peace keeping" missions, it's probably their duty to be a buffert, or what it's called, between two waring parties. But they too can't of course make sure that the military equipment arrive safely as that would be the same as picking a side and they are supposed to be a neutral buffert, or wedge, between the two parties. I would think that the volunteers from different countris enters Ukraine from Poland and might have the duty to make this route as safe as possible.

Quote

... and now that other criminal in Belarus also send his troops to help to destroy the free nation of Ukraine.

It seems that the game Black Sea needs to have Belorussia as the ally to Russia in a new module. Ukraine already has USA as its ally in the game so it's only fair, and as we now know correct, that Russia has Belorussia as their ally.

[BeondTheGrave]

We had a long seminar on the Ukraine crisis at my Uni today, if they post a video I'll upload it. (not sure, there were tech problems) Mostly it was everything a lot of you guys already know, and to a room of undergraduates. The crowd skewed older, 20-22, but much of the discussion varied from basic questions about historical context to ideologically driven questions about how to 'make the world a better place.' Most of the students had their hearts in the right place and brought some interesting questions. 

Some interesting points that came up: Our resident expert on political economy had a lot to say about sanctions and Russia's future. He suggested that in the short term the Russian economy was heavily insulated from economic shocks. Its war chest was large and sanctions, while bold in concept, were not as extensive as the west makes them out to be. My previous predictions of doom (I believe I compared the Russian economy to Chernobyl) may have been a bit..... enthusiastic. He suggested that between access to Chinese markets, German reluctance to pull the plug on gas, and the watering down of SWIFT sanctions, the situation today isn't as bad as first appears. On SWIFT specifically the prof said that banking sanctions are all or nothing, if even one bank is excluded it will become the breathing tube for the rest of the economy. So long as banks in Russia are willing to play ball, and the west doesn't plug the tube, a single bank can float much of the rest of the system. More troubling in the long run, he suggested that this sanctions regime has probably destroyed the Russian economy for a generation, and a bad generation it will be. He pointed out, correctly, that Russian manufacturing lags behind the rest of Europe. This is because the ruble is artificially overvalued thanks to oil. More people buy oil, more people want rubles, more people want rubles, ruble price goes up. But Russian industry isn't up to the value of the ruble and that blocks foreign investment. What little foreign investment there has just died. China was building a new Jetliner with Russian companies. That will almost certainly die thanks to western sanctions. So will most east-west trade deals with Russian businesses. Companies will still want to make one of deals with Russia (we'll buy x mil bbls of oil at y price) but nobody will make long term deals with a country that is so economically self destructive all the time. The situation that Russia is facing is the same as Venezuela in a way. Tons of economic potential but nobody is willing to make a deal or help them out because of poor policy. The only exception is in Oil (Russia has more mineral wealth of course, but its biggest and most valuable is oil). Several problems with Russian oil. First sanctions will crash the price of Russian oil. Bad but not catastrophic. Second and more catastrophic, Russian oil is extremely expensive per bbl to pump. It and Canadian oil sands (said the professor) are the most expensive to pump in the world. Much of this is down to geography. Russian oil is remote, its really far from its customers, and its in some pretty bad terrain above the Arctic circle. Saudi Oil, on the other hand, is the cheapest /bbl. Third Russia will never pump more oil than it does today, in a broad sense. That is, the world is moving away from petroleum energy just like it did with coal and wood and dung. The single greatest 'sanction' the EU could impose is a law banning gas heating in new construction. And theyd be glad to do it, because its green. Between green energy and green cars and green cities, the world is going to use less and less oil. Russia will be the first to suffer. 

Both the military historian and the Russian historian were pretty set that Ukraine would not last much longer without a fundamental revision in the conflict. The Russian historian was pretty convinced that Putin would not lose power to a popular movement in the short term, though he did note that the last two times regime change came to Russia it was after a failed war. He felt though that this conflict, while embarrassing, was not so bloody or onerous as World War One. More of a risk was the oligarch and military classes. They have less tolerance for failure and economic chaos. Putin, the thought, is more likely to drink polonium tea than he is to be gunned down in a dacha basement. Both also agreed that if the fundamental situation did not change, the Russian bear would eventually squeeze the life out of Ukraine. Though one student did ask a question that went mostly unanswered about parallels to Iraq. Hard to convey exactly what was said, I think that many of you would agree with most of the facts they laid out but some would definitely challenge the tone. Shame @The_Capt wasn't there to ask a more stark question about the possibility of an insurgency. 

RE social media the group also pointed out something everyone should remember, lot of bad videos out there, lot of partial information. Everything we see here in this thread, on Reddit, on Twitter is very biased. Even if the person who filmed it didn't think so, there are strong perspective biases that were getting here. We maybe see 1% of whats really going on. 1% of 1%. Just because I havn't seen T-90s doesn't mean they arnt out there (plsplspls post every T-90 or BMP-3 vid you see, and if you see a wrecked T-14, put that pic in a mail and send it to me!) Just because we see a pattern evolving doesn't mean our analysis is based on good info. I dont mean to poo-poo everything were doing here or what were posting, I just want to throw in a little cold water and put things into perspective. It was a point, to be honest, that hit me close to home. 

We also had a few Ukrainian students come and say a little bit. A former Yugoslavian professor also reminded the room that its all abstract theory and ideology when youre in a classroom in rural Ohio. Its a lot different when its your home, your family, your life on the line. That was a bit of cold water I think. I bring it up just so that we can all take a second to think about the real people, Russian and Ukrainian, who are dying over things were writing pet theories about. For us its info-tainment. For them its life and limb. Respect to those risking life and limb to bring us news and updates.  

If I think of anything else worth mentioning I will, if they post the video link (again, there were tech problems they may not) I will. Mostly though the questions were pretty basic, but from the sense of the student's questions more generally it seemed like most were genuinely curious about the context of the conflict rather than the type whose already decided ahead of time. We also have a good bunch here though. I also have a vague feeling that Zoomers, for better and worse, are very open to new ideas. I dont want this to devolve in to a generational schlacht so Ill stop, I think Elvis barely survived this mornings slap fights. 

Edited March 1, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[db_zero]

A 40 mile long convoy is reported on the moved towards Kyiv.

Are they going to launch an assault or just siege Kyiv?