How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[John Kettler]

5 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

 

Fifth time is the charm. Who said that Belorussia would only commit some of their court units? Seems to me that airborne troopers would be the best of the best in most systems. Well see how much of a ground component comes with it. Glad I didn't bet them a beer... 

Seems to me that if the Ukrainians were able to shoot down 2 x Russian Il-76 loaded with paratroopers paratroopers and light armor, then the prospects for the Belarus VDV surviving their flights would be grim indeed--on aircraft reliability, piloting, navigation and ECM effectiveness (If there is any and works). Would be irrational to expect the Belarus air force to be better than the Russians.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

5 hours ago, Vinnart said:

Word to the wise as I've already seen comments recommending. No matter where you are, especially in a NATO country if you've not done any prepping for a cyber attack that takes down power grids you need to get to it. If youv'e not already exercised your 2nd amendment right I suggest that too. All these world leaders are controlled by bankers, and mega corporations. If you do not know who Klaus Schwab, head of The World Economic Forum, the Bilderberg Group, and Davos Group, is then it is in your interest to investigate who he is. In his arrogance he openly brags of infiltrating half of the cabinets of the world, including Canada's to name just one. You may not know of his connection to the pandemic in his book "Covid 19, and The Great Reset",and his round table war gaming of the pandemic 5 MONTHS before hand in Oct. 2019 along with The Gates Foundation which they called "Event 201". You can investigate these things for yourself

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klaus_Schwab - Capture of democratic structures and institutions

He is now openly bragging of the possibility of a cyber attack on the power grid as a next phase of their "Great Reset". This war is convenient in the wanting to facilitate that desire. I normally do not get into these things on the forum, but I think this is important enough to post to inform especially if you have never heard of Klaus Schwab, The World Economic Forum, and the term "The Great Reset". Oh, and you may want to learn of his relationship with Putin. Prep and you will be wise. Seek and you shall find ....

Hear it from the Devil's mouth himself -

https://www.bitchute.com/video/JO0orNe6wbMN/

Would like to nominate Vinnart for the Big Brass Ones of the Week Award. He said things that, given Steve's request to me, would assuredly result in either a long vacation or a one-way ticket from here. People desperately need to know these things, for their very survival depends on understanding the real power structure, how it works and who controls it. Suggest people investigate guidestones associated with a certain state.

Regards,

John Kettler

[borg]

Over 5,000 dead RUS soldiers ….

[John Kettler]

4 hours ago, akd said:

Full-bore AP round or HE round took out this T-72B3 obr. 2016? Or tandem-HEAT punched a large hole in the ERA / skirt with precursor before main penetrated turret ring?

As a military historian, Steve will appreciate this response to the pics.

 

Vinz Eric

 

@VinzErics

 

Replying to

@RALee85

Probably NLAW, swedish revenge for Poltava!

 

10:51 AM · Feb 27, 2022·Twitter Web App

Regards,

John Kettler

[Aragorn2002]

8 hours ago, TheVulture said:

That seems like a provocative course of action. Or a mis-type :)

 

i had to read that several times....

[arkhangelsk2021]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, let me guess Saudi Arabia?  Yeah, that's a complicated one.  Still doesn't challenge my point though.

I gave you a lot of hints, Steve. Why would Saudi Arabia have an interest in Taiwan? Did Saudi Arabia ever make an attack on United States Forces, let alone with entire armies?

Quote

If you want to continue your flawed analogy, it is more like you divorced and then psychologically abused your ex-wife into doing all kinds of things to benefit you instead of her.

When I say that Ukraine aggressed Russia in the 1991-2013 period, I at least pointed out specific instances whose general facts are uncontested, not vague, abstract references to bribes or poison.

Quote

Blaming the victim (Ukraine) for a lifetime of abuse by Russia's ruling elite (going back well into past centuries), is not going to win you any arguments with me.

Doesn't forgive any torts they conducted at the present. If you are a victim, should people give you an immunity from theft?

[Battlefront.com]

Ukraine military report for this morning summarizing Russia's losses through yesterday:

Quote

Total oriental losses enemy from 24.02 to 28.02 status at 6:00

Airplanes - 29

helicopters - 29

Tanks - 191

Combat armored vehicles - 816

Cannon - 74

ZRK BOOK - 1

RSZV BM-21 "City" - 21

Automotive equipment - 291

Tanks - 60

Operational and tactical level GPA - 3

Ships / boats - 2

Air Defense Tools - 5

Separately, Ukraine estimates personnel killed at 5300 (up roughly 1000 since Day 4).  Ukraine's press releases don't track wounded and have not released POW numbers for some reason (though I've seen them mention "hundreds").

At ~5000 KIA, this means roughly 9,000-20,000 WIA using the standard 1:3 or 1:4 ratios.  That is the equivalent of knocking 30 BTGs out of commission.

This seems like a very reasonable number given the scale of operations and the amount of verified destruction.  However, due to the fog of war, it is always a good idea to lower the estimate somewhat.  Having said that, the numbers Ukraine produced during the latter part of Russia's first invasion were pretty accurate and independently verified.

Russia's numbers, both during the first invasion and this one were always crazy off the mark.  Probably why Russia isn't releasing much in the way of numbers now.  To combat Ukraine's numbers they'd have to make up totally stupidly high values.  Which, in the case of how many drones they shot down, is what they did (supposedly they shot down more than Ukraine ever had).  Plus, Russia is still spinning the lie of a fairly low level war to the people at home.  Announcing they've killed 10,000 Nazis every day doesn't really make it sound like a small conflict, does it?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Would like to nominate Vinnart for the Big Brass Ones of the Week Award. He said things that, given Steve's request to me, would assuredly result in either a long vacation or a one-way ticket from here. People desperately need to know these things, for their very survival depends on understanding the real power structure, how it works and who controls it. Suggest people investigate guidestones associated with a certain state.

Regards,

John Kettler

I gave Vinnart a free pass this time, just like I gave you years of free passes before I cracked down on your derailing of discussions.  Up until your post it was going to be lost in the din of other posts.  Don't test me by dragging it back up to the surface again.

Steve

[Sarjen]

The ruble, which was already at a historic low, down almost 30% so far. Russia's central bank is pushing back trading several hours ahead of what is likely an even bigger crash. We are truly in uncharted territory here.

I can't overstate how unprecedented this is. The ruble was at 25 to the dollar pre-2014 and 60 after the oil crash that year.

Most Russians don't have savings. 20m are in poverty. Migrants send remittances to Central Asia. It's ordinary people who will really suffer.

Russian bank is offering dollars at the rate of 166 rubles. The 120 ruble rate they had last night, or 130 ruble rate they had 45 minutes ago, was a steal by comparison

Edited February 28, 2022 by Sarjen

[Andy_101]

Just wondering why it has "tank" loses twice on that list?

[Aragorn2002]

6 hours ago, akd said:

That’s reading a lot into a situation that you were not present at and definitely haven’t talked to directly anyone who was.  Maybe lay off the social media confirmation bias firestorms.  There is a war on.

Well said, akd.

[Ts4EVER]

Whacky conspiracies aside, what worries me right now is the prospect of China propping up the Russian regime and turning this into some endless proxy war.

[arkhangelsk2021]

This hour is filled with cheery news for Ukraine:

https://t.me/spravdi/867

Quote

Tokmak: powerful battles with saboteurs in Ukrainian uniform, but with Russian bulletproof vests

On the night of February 28 in the city of Tokmak (Zaporozhye region) were powerful battles, according to the Zaporozhye Regional Military Administration.

During the confrontation in the village, the enemy suffered heavy casualties and has now retreated to the southern outskirts of Tokmak. Enemy reconnaissance patrols are currently operating in the city.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine systematically fights against a few sabotage and reconnaissance groups of 3-5 people. They are wearing Ukrainian military uniforms, but wear bulletproof vests of the Russian army.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Begemot said:

Steve,

I speak the truth and you don't like it. Too bad.

Oh boy.  No, you don't speak the truth.

1 hour ago, Begemot said:

I have a stepson and his wife sheltering in a basement in Sumy at this moment. My wife has friends who are in similar jeopardy. I am very much aware of what has happened in Ukraine since 2014. I have a very personal interest.

OK, so tell me... why are they in the basement instead of being outside where the air is fresh?

1 hour ago, Begemot said:

But I also have a commitment to the truth and I will call it like I see it.

Some people think the Earth is flat, Elvis is alive, Democrats are child molesting pedophiles, and all kinds of nonsense they call "truth".  So you can call it as you see it, but that doesn't mean you see things as they are.

1 hour ago, Begemot said:

I have seen too many pictures and videos of the death and misery that has been unleashed on Ukraine these last 8 years and you support the killers in Kiev. So go ahead and do your worst.

There is only death and misery over the past 8 years because Russia armed, staffed, paid, and directed a violent proxy war.  Or do you really still believe that the so-called separatists are still using captured Ukrainian ammunition all these many years?

Well, at least Russia got rid of most of the GRU/SBU types that initially tried to pretend to be locals.  I suppose having local goons instead of foreign ones is a slight improvement.

1 hour ago, Begemot said:

You damn Putin as a tyrant but you are only a small one yourself.

How so?  I called out your post for what it was... Kremlin talking points that have been endlessly debunked and put into correct context for years now.  It's soooooo tiring to constantly see something corrected and yet come right back again as if it was never challenged.

As I said, you are free to post here.  But if you wish to try to re-litigate a completely lost cause, then I'll ask you to kindly post somewhere else.  If in your mind that equates me to someone who commits mass murder, imprisons dissenters (that he doesn't kill or try to kill, that is), has socked away an estimated $100,000,000 for person use, and is threatening a global nuclear war to keep it all that way... well, that's your opinion.  Personally, I think that's a bit of a stretch comparison.

Steve

[arkhangelsk2021]

2 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

Whacky conspiracies aside, what worries me right now is the prospect of China propping up the Russian regime and turning this into some endless proxy war.

Frankly I think that's one thing that won't happen. Whether in ideological terms or practicalities, the "correlation of values" between taking a pro-Russian or pro-Western stance is roughly even as far as China is concerned, which explains their ambivalent attitude till now. That extends to even the censored webspace in the "Normal Administrative Region".

[Ts4EVER]

2 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

Frankly I think that's one thing that won't happen. Whether in ideological terms or practicalities, the "correlation of values" between taking a pro-Russian or pro-Western stance is roughly even as far as China is concerned, which explains their ambivalent attitude till now. That extends to even the censored webspace in the "Normal Administrative Region".

Yes, but they might fear Russia having some kind of pro-western revolution or see the potential of essentially turning it into a client state that relies on them economically.

[chuckdyke]

A war between NATO and Russia is exactly what China wants. They won't take sides. My advice? is investing in popcorn manufacturers. One Billion people is a lot of customers. 

[John Kettler]

2 hours ago, GAZ NZ said:

I'm responding to John's post above 

I have no idea what he's on about

There was lot of info in media about a plant exploding 

US has stated

US official: Russian invasion of Ukraine risks release of dangerous pathogens - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Link is below scroll to highlight

https://thebulletin.org/2022/02/us-official-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-risks-release-of-dangerous-pathogens/

GAZ NZ,

The purpose of my post was to point out the existence of an extraordinary OSINT revelation--in a place where  I NEVER would've expected to see its like. The recommended site certainly has been all over Wuhan, DARPA, who took the terminated US work to China, Fauci funding GoF on bat viruses at Wuhan, etc., but NOTHING like what's in the video I urge you all to watch, even if it sets your hair on fire. You'll understand what I'm on about when you watch the video and start to look at its contents in the context of the knowns we've turned up and evaluated here, as well as many puzzling things we still haven't sorted out. What I saw certainly reframed my views of what's really been going on and why, with the added fillip that despite any reframing, Putin may have serious medical and/or psychological problems as well, causing him to behave in a most uncharacteristic manner.

There are apparent reasons wars are fought, publicly declared reasons wars are fought, hidden reasons wars are fought, often with the participants not understanding they're being manipulated, and then there are people like Steve who have to figure out the 5 "W"s in the face of, variously,  failing memories, self-interest, lies, classification, ignorance, self-censorship, protecting reputations, loyalties to any number of people (comrades, CO, branch of service, site, nation, or even humanity, external censorship, destroyed docs, missing docs, redacted docs but no original left, etc.).  I believe that when the dust settles (hoping for the radioactive dust first), we're going to find that what we think this war was about was, at the very least, far more complex and nuanced than most people could imagine. Frankly, would expect that we'll ultimately learn this horror has more layers than an onion the size of a pushball.

Let me close with a real world example. The official reason for the U.S. getting into WW II is well known, right? It's wrong! That true reason, you see, is in the archives of the CFR, which Professor Holly Sklar was given private access to while editing a book about another well known and later elite. PM me for the title if you don't follow the allusion. What was the real reason for the US to enter WW II when we did? This was done so that, with our commercial rivals (Allies) economically and materially exhausted, the US would be able to capture and dominate the global marketplace for many years after the war! The document went on to say that this truth must be carefully hidden, lest it hand the Germans a huge propaganda victory and deter others from joining the fight. It was also decided that there must be a public statement of the justness of our cause (to hide the extremely unmarketable and cynical real objective), and that resulted in FDR's famous "Seven Freedoms" speech. 

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited February 28, 2022 by John Kettler

[panzermartin]

14 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

A war between NATO and Russia is exactly what China wants. They won't take sides. My advice? is investing in popcorn manufacturers. One Billion people is a lot of customers. 

How so? NATO will be stronger than ever after this conflict and they are next in the checklist. Imagine a western puppet Russia on their borders. China is the ultimate goal of this campaign. Time for them to build another great wall. 

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

Purely as a tactical matter running over a car is stupid. You can break a track, get stuck, or even have the gas tank go off. If his platoon commander is A) alive and  b ) sober, neither of which is a given in this sad excuse for an army. he is probably royally pissed off

While I understand the sentiment, I don’t agree with your statement. Since many here like to use references to Iraq, I will say this, and please understand that my assessment is based on having been a Marine Infantryman. If I was commanding a column of AAVs (amtracks), and a car came speeding down the road towards us, and if the lead AAV veered off to stop the speeding vehicle, I’d probably recommend the lead AAV driver for a medal for fast thinking and selflessness to save the rest of the column from a possible VIED. I honestly respect the driver of the armored vehicle for the same thing. Now I don’t know for sure why the driver did what he did, but if it is as I assume, I respect his courage regardless of whether he is considered an enemy or not.

in Iraq, we had snipers that would take out the driver of a vehicle that was approaching in a threatening manner. I would never depreciate the courage of ANY combatant based on his or her alignment.

[BletchleyGeek]

1 hour ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

In fact, right now, I happen to live in a country that the United States happen to be very "philic" with. That country has gotten away with launching a full blown surprise attack with multiple armies on American troops executing a UN mandate and suffered no more than some sanctions, breaking the precedent that a surprise attack on American forces is awarded with nukes. That country has attacked four countries yet has received surprisingly little condemnation globally. That country was even accused of genocide (by Western authorities) ... yet overall surprisingly little happened to it.

Okay, that explains a lot. 

歡迎您加入我們的家庭!

It's a family that isn't afraid of throwing furniture at each other.

You have a good point re getting away with genocide. Historically, Nazi Germany got away with QUITE A LOT until it made the mistake of launching a war of aggression on a neighbor.

[John Kettler]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ah, I think I know the one you mean.  Very well documented.  However, you seem to not understand that Geneva Convention does not cover people who engage in armed activities without using a uniform or, as was the case here, wearing the uniform of the opposing armed forces.  Yup, that Russian you saw get shot was wearing a Ukrainian uniform and driving a stolen Ukrainian vehicle.  The Strela that was following behind was Russian then ran over a civilian car while retreating (nearly killing the old man in it).

War is Hell and if you put on the uniform of the other side in an attempt to circumvent the rules of war, I have no sympathy at all for what happens.

Not convincing at all.   Your initial post made it seem you saw something conclusive, like some of the videos I watched at the time of Russia's first invasion of Ukraine.  Instead, your first citation is out of context and your second one has you playing a forensic expert from afar while looking at one very small slice of information taken on a cellphone.

What you apparently don't understand is that sometimes death is messy, sometimes it is quite neat.  I know of a guy in my town that was hit by a piece of metal probably no bigger than 3mm or so in size.  Went right through him and didn't even know it.  He told people he felt tired and went for a lie down.  He died and there was almost no blood outside, all inside.

You have absolutely no idea what you're looking at, so please don't claim that you do.

Steve

To prove Steve's point, If desired, I can produce the figures on how many OPERATION GREIF soldiers we captured, interrogated and executed for wearing the US uniform. Moreover, it didn't matter that they were, per Skorzeny's statement at any rate, wearing their own uniforms over ours and planned to dump them if capture seemed imminent. They were, were captured in ours, and they paid the lawful price in front of firing squads. Believe, though, the Geneva Convention also permits the wearing of a distinctive marking, such as an armband, for those without uniforms, such as the Maquis.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by John Kettler

[DesertFox]

5 hours ago, akd said:

Full-bore AP round or HE round took out this T-72B3 obr. 2016? Or tandem-HEAT punched a large hole in the ERA / skirt with precursor before main penetrated turret ring?

Interesting pic. Diameter excludes APFSDS and HEAT to me. Looks like roughly 10-12cm.

[John Kettler]

1 hour ago, Zveroboy1 said:

Please tell me you didn't actually pay to get access to this nonsense?

Zveroboy1,

Please go watch the video and then report back. Otherwise, you're judging the metaphorical book, not by its cover, but never having seen it at all--in any form. For the record, I consider the money I spent, a mere $30, an excellent investment, one from which not only have I learned a great deal but which has helped opened the eyes of others, too.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I gave Vinnart a free pass this time, just like I gave you years of free passes before I cracked down on your derailing of discussions.  Up until your post it was going to be lost in the din of other posts.  Don't test me by dragging it back up to the surface again.

Steve

Steve,

Roger that. Read you 5 by 5.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by John Kettler