How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Sgt Joch]

The reason why Russia will not be cut off from SWIFT is the fact that the EU is still heavily dependent on Russian Oil (27% of oil imports) and natural gas (41% of Gas imports). How is the EU going to pay for Oil/Gas if Russia is cut off from SWIFT and Russia will cut off the flow if they do not get paid.

IMHO, the reason why EU reaction so far is fairly mild is because this has a "France 1940" feel to it. Everyone is in a wait and see pattern. No one wants to make decisions that will be hard to reverse if the whole thing is over in 1-2 weeks.

[Thomm]

26 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

An image of the soldiers who resisted russian attacks by themselves against all odds on Snake Island and gave their lives for it. A salute to these heroes.

There is something that I do not understand about the audio recording on YouTube:
You hear the Ukrainian soldiers talk to each other in a 'normal' fashion, but then the 'F' reply can be heard over the radio.
How is this possible? Is this edited?

Best regards
Thomm

[Aragorn2002]

12 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

The reason why Russia will not be cut off from SWIFT is the fact that the EU is still heavily dependent on Russian Oil (27% of oil imports) and natural gas (41% of Gas imports). How is the EU going to pay for Oil/Gas if Russia is cut off from SWIFT and Russia will cut off the flow if they do not get paid.

IMHO, the reason why EU reaction so far is fairly mild is because this has a "France 1940" feel to it. Everyone is in a wait and see pattern. No one wants to make decisions that will be hard to reverse if the whole thing is over in 1-2 weeks.

I've read the Russians developed their own version of SWIFT. Not sure how effective that will be though. But another example of how long this aggression has been in the making.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, CHEqTRO said:

Are they going to start military operations against Finland now?

I am from Finland.

Just now today it seems Sweden and Finland are making a rapid coordinated move to join NATO with article 5 going in to effect at the moment of application.

one source: https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a/51bc1d34-f37b-4195-8880-2879405e958e

[CHEqTRO]

25 minutes ago, Thomm said:

There is something that I do not understand about the audio recording on YouTube:
You hear the Ukrainian soldiers talk to each other in a 'normal' fashion, but then the 'F' reply can be heard over the radio.
How is this possible? Is this edited?

Best regards
Thomm

No idea really. Didnt take too much atention to the video.

28 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

The reason why Russia will not be cut off from SWIFT is the fact that the EU is still heavily dependent on Russian Oil (27% of oil imports) and natural gas (41% of Gas imports). How is the EU going to pay for Oil/Gas if Russia is cut off from SWIFT and Russia will cut off the flow if they do not get paid.

IMHO, the reason why EU reaction so far is fairly mild is because this has a "France 1940" feel to it. Everyone is in a wait and see pattern. No one wants to make decisions that will be hard to reverse if the whole thing is over in 1-2 weeks.

Meh, I disagree. The economic turmoil would be bad of course, but its not like we cant take countermeasures, both in the short and long term. We can get gas for the time being from the Americans, and oil from the Middle East. Long term we will have to start conducting Fracking on our shores and go the french way with nuclear energy. It would be harsh, but not catastrophic.

Obviously, if they can avoid taking such action they are going to do so. Hence why the sanction has not being yet enacted. They are most likely hoping that the war ends without Kyiv falling, and they can get the suppossed outcome of a "Neutral" Ukraine. That would not disturb the balance in eastern europe too much. However its clear that the intention of Putin its, at the very least, regime change and taking control of all of central and eastern Ukraine.

The problem with that, is that the security situation for Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states deteriorates drastically in such an eventuallity. These countries are going to seek some counter action to mantain somewhat the previous balance in Eastern Europe, both via economic sanctions and military deployment.

Taking what it would be seen as Russian side, would push those countries more towards an exclusive alliance with the Anglo-American axis of NATO, rather than the European (Germany/France). Lets remember that this countries are supposedly deep on the german sphere of influence, but you have to keep them that way either via hard or soft power. Considering that the Bundeswher itself recognizes that it doesnt have the capabilities to conduct warfare, they only have their soft power. Lets also remember that the poles are also making moves outside of the EU, by signing an "alliance" with the UK and Ukraine.

Its the german government ready to lose its influence in eastern europe, anger the americans (which are going to be the ones bringing the gas), and getting isolated inside of NATO, while esentially making themselves even more dependent to Rusia? I have my doubts.

If the French had also being against the proposal I could see them trying to avoid it, but with the French also on board, I think once is clear that the Russians intend to fully take Ukraine they will go ahead with the sanctions. Like always, we will see.

EDIT: Also, something tells me that the threats towards both Sweden and Finland today, both EU members, have pushed Berlin into the direction of applying sanctions

Edited February 25, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Pericles]

Are thermobaric munitions detonating at around 1:54 in this video, or is this HE artillery? 

 

[Aragorn2002]

30 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I am from Finland.

Just now today it seems Sweden and Finland are making a rapid coordinated move to join NATO with article 5 going in to effect at the moment of application.

one source: https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a/51bc1d34-f37b-4195-8880-2879405e958e

I doubt that, but it would be good for Europe.

[BFCElvis]

2 hours ago, Holien said:

@Warts 'n' all@Aragorn2002 Gents please take it outside...

It's been awesome to see how cool everyone has been. It speaks very well for this community. I've only had to issue 1 vacation so far.

[Flibby]

1 hour ago, Probus said:

This is not the venue for those types of inflammatory images. I’m sure old Warty wants nothing more than to disrupt this thread and get it shut down. @BFCElvis

 

I said don't censor them - I agree we don't need to see dead UKR soldiers or orcs in this thread. 100%.

I met up with some friends last night. Their daughter in law spent the last couple of nights in the underground station in Kiev. Her son is in the UK on holiday to see them. To say he is distraught is an understatement. He would much rather be with his wife in their home in Kiev despite the risks but now cannot get there to help. 

I must admit that I was very sceptical of the repeated US warnings of impending invasion. How wrong I was.

[borg]

NATO rapid force being deployed to Eastern front !! To bolster the defenses (of existing NATO Allies) and offer support to Ukraine . This is CMBS - almost prophetic

Edited February 25, 2022 by borg

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Sgt Joch said:

The reason why Russia will not be cut off from SWIFT is the fact that the EU is still heavily dependent on Russian Oil (27% of oil imports) and natural gas (41% of Gas imports). How is the EU going to pay for Oil/Gas if Russia is cut off from SWIFT and Russia will cut off the flow if they do not get paid.

 

Looks like it's going to happen anyway.

[Aragorn2002]

8 minutes ago, borg said:

NATO rapid force being deployed to Eastern front !! To bolster the defenses (of existing NATO Allies) and offer support to Ukraine . This is CMBS - almost prophetic

Yes. The Netherlands will send it's 8 Leopard tanks, leased from Germany. That will teach those Russians...

[CHEqTRO]

3 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Looks like it's going to happen anyway.

So it seems. (Told ya that when the germans accept applying sanctions, so will the italians  , they still have to enact them thought, so lets see):

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, borg said:

NATO rapid force being deployed to Eastern front !! To bolster the defenses (of existing NATO Allies) and offer support to Ukraine . This is CMBS - almost prophetic

The extent to which CMBS is prophetic is utterly terrifying. Read the novella the U.S. Army armor officer wrote at the beginning of the CMBS rollout. The parts that are not absolutely dead on easily could be by this time next week.

 

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

So it seems. (Told ya that when the germans accept applying sanctions, so will the italians  , they still have to enact them thought, so lets see):

Cyprus doesn't approve yet...

[womble]

39 minutes ago, Flibby said:

I must admit that I was very sceptical of the repeated US warnings of impending invasion. How wrong I was.

I thought the tactic of telling Russia "We know what you're doing, matey; don't try it," in the public forum was an interesting approach to attempting to dissuade Vlad from kicking off. I suppose it was too much to ask for there to be any actual recourse when Putin declined to be impressed. Or maybe there was, and we'll hear about it when secrets get declassified in half a century or so.

[Sgt Joch]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I've read the Russians developed their own version of SWIFT. Not sure how effective that will be though. But another example of how long this aggression has been in the making.

Russia’s economy was disrupted by the 2014 sanctions and they have put measures in place since then to lessen the effectiveness of future western sanctions. Developing an alternative to SWIFT was one, they also developed: 1)closer relations with China, building pipelines and other infrastructure so they would have alternative markets; 2) doing transactions in currency other than U.S. dollars; 3) pushing foreign capital out of strategic industries and replacing it with Russian capital; 4) using more Russian produced goods instead of imports; 5) cracking down on opponents and independent media ,I.e. the “foreign agent” laws; and 6) building up a huge amount of liquid assets, over U.S. $600 billion last time I checked

Now all this does not mean Russia cannot be hurt by western sanctions, but they have more of a cushion than last time.

I don’t think this necessarily means this war has been planned for a long time.

[CHEqTRO]

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

Cyprus doesn't approve yet...

Yeah, they are the weakest link honestly. But I do not think they are going to be able to whitstand the combined pressure from all NATO/EU for too long. I would be surprised if they did, and more if the EU didnt take disciplinary action against it.

[CHEqTRO]

2 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

I don’t think this necessarily means this war has been planned for a long time.

For the very least, it has been on the works since April 21. Most likely it was decided to act some time before that. My bet is that they were pushed into this direction by the economic downfall caused by Covid, among other things.

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

For the very least, it has been on the works since April 21. Most likely it was decided to act some time before that. My bet is that they were pushed into this direction by the economic downfall caused by Covid, among other things.

Is there anything that can't be blamed on covid these days

I don't think it has anything to do with the economy. If Putin wanted prosperity, he could have been friendly with his neighbours, encouraged trade and opened his gas pipeline.. apparently that was not what he wanted.

This seems more like the fulfilment of an old dream by an old man. He spent so many years seizing and consolidating power.. now in his last years, he wants to change the world.

[Aragorn2002]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

Is there anything that can't be blamed on covid these days

I don't think it has anything to do with the economy. If Putin wanted prosperity, he could have been friendly with his neighbours, encouraged trade and opened his gas pipeline.. apparently that was not what he wanted.

This seems more like the fulfilment of an old dream by an old man. He spent so many years seizing and consolidating power.. now in his last years, he wants to change the world.

That sounds more likely. 

[CHEqTRO]

4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Is there anything that can't be blamed on covid these days

I don't think it has anything to do with the economy. If Putin wanted prosperity, he could have been friendly with his neighbours, encouraged trade and opened his gas pipeline.. apparently that was not what he wanted.

This seems more like the fulfilment of an old dream by an old man. He spent so many years seizing and consolidating power.. now in his last years, he wants to change the world.

I think that the economy is always a big factor in this kind of decisions. Covid has been harsh to the Russian people, and so to its economy as well. Maybe the Covid pandemic was not the only cause for russian economic troubles, but just the final straw.

The Russian economy has to have serious problems, at the least in the long term, if they are going in this direction, that I can assure you.

Edited February 25, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[akd]

4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Is there anything that can't be blamed on covid these days

I don't think it has anything to do with the economy. If Putin wanted prosperity, he could have been friendly with his neighbours, encouraged trade and opened his gas pipeline.. apparently that was not what he wanted.

This seems more like the fulfilment of an old dream by an old man. He spent so many years seizing and consolidating power.. now in his last years, he wants to change the world.

Seriously.  Don’t Russians think it is odd that, overall, their country has become more prosperous as more neighbors joined EU and NATO?

[Bulletpoint]

5 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

I think that the economy is always a big factor in this kind of decisions. Covid has been harsh to the Russian people, and so to its economy as well. Maybe the Covid pandemic was not the only cause for russian economic troubles, but just the final straw.

The Russian economy has to have serious problems, at the least in the long term, if they are going in this direction, that I can assure you.

But how is this war ever going to help the Russian economy? Ukraine has good farmland... that's pretty much it. Not exactly the foundation of a strong, modern economy.

Compare that with the sheer cost of the sanctions. It doesn't make any sense to launch this war for economic reasons.

[Lethaface]

10 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Is there anything that can't be blamed on covid these days

I don't think it has anything to do with the economy. If Putin wanted prosperity, he could have been friendly with his neighbours, encouraged trade and opened his gas pipeline.. apparently that was not what he wanted.

This seems more like the fulfilment of an old dream by an old man. He spent so many years seizing and consolidating power.. now in his last years, he wants to change the world.

It's always about the economy. But consider economy to be a separate thing from defense or politics at your peril.