How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

29 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Older tanks cannot play the MBT role on the battlefield. But these can still be useful in other roles like supporting fire.

Arguably better than nothing on the tactical scale. In CM you have a task of clearing a village. You can have T-62 platoon to go with your motorized company or not. Easy decision, I want that firepower even if it means only shoot and scoot at static positions with extreme caution to not lose them.

Strategic level "profitability" might be another story (like logistical train for an old and a new tank is similar and also the personal cost)

I thought that is why everyone invested in IFVs?

A gas guzzling infantry support gun, sure why not.  I mean if that is all one has but the things are still big and hot and can be seen a long way off.  On the modern battlefield they will be blind as a bat (they were not that great by 1970s standards).  Strain on logistics, now a new set of spare parts and nature of ammo (115mm) is likely not worth it but I think the Russians are scraping bottoms of barrels anyway.  Unless of course you put them out front to soak up the ATGMs in a hope the UA will run out.

"Shoot and scoot"...it is the scooting that appears to be the major problem so far.  

[Kinophile]

14 minutes ago, sburke said:

I am still in the skeptical column.  We are only talking a 7-10 km advance on a narrow front.  It is unfortunate, but not exactly a rapier thrust.  In addition. it isn't clear they can maintain the momentum.  From ISW on May 22nd

Russian forces made only minimal gains in eastern Ukraine on May 22. New reporting confirmed that Russian troops previously recaptured Rubizhne in northern Kharkiv Oblast, on May 19. Russian forces are likely committing additional reinforcements to hold their positions on the west bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in northern Kharkiv—rather than withdrawing across the river to use it as a defensive position—to prevent any further Ukrainian advances to the north or the east that could threaten Russian lines of communication to the Izyum axis. Ukrainian sources additionally confirmed previous Russian-claimed advances around Popasna, and Russian forces likely seek to open a new line of advance north from Popasna to complete the encirclement of Severodonetsk while simultaneously driving west toward Bakhmut, though Russian forces are unlikely to be able to fully resource both lines of advance simultaneously.

ISW report from yesterday.

Russian forces have begun steadily advancing efforts in these different encirclements daily but have not achieved any major “breakthroughs” or made major progress towards their stated objectives of securing the Donetsk Oblast borders or seizing all of Donbas.

The highlighted line tells me Russia is still trying to do too much at once with limited logistical capability.  The reporting over 3 days indicates that after that initial push when the territorial units pulled out, they are back to a grinding advance.  For me this would account for the UA still not pulling out of the salient.  They do not expect to see a rapid enough advance to threaten their rear quite yet.  i.e. they are not panicked by that 7-10 km thrust.

To be clear, Im not in the doom-n-gloom column of "The Great  & Dangerous Popasna Breakthrough of 2022"  Popasna is unwanted but not unseen. With months of pressure on any front a break will happen somewhere, and it's noteworthy it was a TDF unit, not a regular UA.

More, Im focusing on its implications that someone, or a small team of someones, in the RUS officer corp has the wits and backing to get this done quickly and sensibly (which is why I talked about UKR  Decap strikes at the end, rather than operational movements etc).

I suspect whomever is commanding this push will get another command in a few weeks and well start to see some more damage done.

Edited May 25, 2022 by Kinophile

[cesmonkey]

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

To be clear, Im not in the doom-n-gloom column of "The Great  & Dangerous Popasna Breakthrough of 2022"  Popasna is unwanted but not unseen. With months of pressure on any front a break will happen somewhere, and it's noteworthy it was a TDF unit, not a regular UA.

More, Im focusing on its implications that someone, or a small team of someones, in the RUS officer corp has the wits and backing to get this done quickly and sensibly (which is why I talked about UKR  Decap strikes at the end, rather than operational movements etc).

I suspect whomever is commanding this push will get another command in a few weeks and well start to see some more damage done.

I'd be happy if the media puts out alarmist stories about the recent Russian successes, IF that helps convince the allies to speed up the delivery of needed heavy weapons to Ukraine.

[The_MonkeyKing]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I thought that is why everyone invested in IFVs?

A gas guzzling infantry support gun, sure why not.  I mean if that is all one has but the things are still big and hot and can be seen a long way off.  On the modern battlefield they will be blind as a bat (they were not that great by 1970s standards).  Strain on logistics, now a new set of spare parts and nature of ammo (115mm) is likely not worth it but I think the Russians are scraping bottoms of barrels anyway.  Unless of course you put them out front to soak up the ATGMs in a hope the UA will run out.

"Shoot and scoot"...it is the scooting that appears to be the major problem so far.  

Excellent point about the IFV. These T-62 would be just that but mostly worse. Some added protection especially when comparing to these cardboard soviet IFVs.

Only reason to do this is if they really really don't have any better options. (and there should be lots of better options)

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Another merc pilot killed:
 

 

He wasn't killed. On the screens of Russian Airbase forum wrote he was led in pair with Botashev. They flew on 1500 m and both Su-25 were hit with MANPADs. Markkov could land own damaged jet. Botashov got lost.  

Also they wrote both pilots was flying from PMC, Markov was more aged, than Botashov. He is 66-67 and lives in Belarus.

Edited May 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

About T-62M/MV. This is not for Russian regulars and even not for LDPR regulars. Russia still has enough T-72/80 for such purposes. T-62 will go to reinforcing of conscript LDPR rifle regiments and for some unclear "local territorial defense". Russians established some "cossack" units in occupied Zaporizhzhia oblast, I don't know how much of collaborants they have. Russian sources write that in border oblasts of Russia cossack TD units are establishing now and they are receiving T-62 too.

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

A gas guzzling infantry support gun, sure why not. 

If years of playing CM have taught me anything it's that cheap HE-chuckers are always useful

[Kinophile]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/25/world/russia-ukraine-war#a-doomed-river-crossing-shows-the-perils-of-entrapment-in-the-wars-east

First time I've found the name of the UKR commander - Col. Dmytro Kashenko. 

[Harmon Rabb]

The leader of the the TikTok troopers announces that after the inevitable defeat of Ukraine, Poland is next.

Edited May 25, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Kinophile]

Just now, Vanir Ausf B said:

If years of playing CM have taught me anything it's that cheap HE-chuckers are always useful

Yah cheap cause you're not paying for the digital gas

 

[MikeyD]

I recall an Abrams tanker in Fallujah complaining that in this battle his MBT was little more than a glorified mg carrier. You can't fire the big gun close to your troops, you can't fire it over the heads of forward troops. You can't open your hatch to man the (non-remote) HMG. So you're basically fighting with nothing but a coaxial 7.62. For non-tank-on-tank infantry support an old T62 may only be marginally inferior to a T-72. You're mostly there to dissuade opposing infantry from approaching your position.

Edited May 25, 2022 by MikeyD

[Vanir Ausf B]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

About T-62M/MV. This is not for Russian regulars and even not for LDPR regulars. Russia still has enough T-72/80 for such purposes. T-62 will go to reinforcing of conscript LDPR rifle regiments and for some unclear "local territorial defense". Russians established some "cossack" units in occupied Zaporizhzhia oblast, I don't know how much of collaborants they have. Russian sources write that in border oblasts of Russia cossack TD units are establishing now and they are receiving T-62 too.

 

Spot on.

 

[Huba]

Here's a very interesting gossip from Poland:

So few years ago we ordered a battalion of HIMARS, which was to be delivered till 2023, but got hastened due to the war and we are just getting it. On upcoming Friday our MoD was to announce further order for 3 more battalions of localized version on Polish made trucks etc. There is talk however, that we'll order 4 battalions instead. Guess where the original American one is gonna end up?

Nothing specific was said of course, but the gossip comes from (relatively) well respected Polish defence journalist.

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

I'm seeing reports that Ukraine is pulling out of Lyman.

[Haiduk]

UKR troops withdrawing from Lyman and taking aboard of own BTR-80 a group of own comrades, which withdraw on foot.

The words of background song:

There, where we stand to the end

And the war will not break us

Our faith unites hearts

Ukraine is alive forever!

Reportedly on Izium axis Russians prepare to use for next step of operation combined artillery group of 45th high-power artillery brigade of Western military district - 2 2S7 203 mm SP-guns and 2 2S4 240 mm SP-morars. Also together with them spotted 2 Tochka-U launchers and 2 TL vehicles. Probably all this stuff will fire on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, but maybe also on Siverodonetsk and Lysychansk

Edited May 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

16 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

The leader of the the TikTok troopers announces that after the inevitable defeat of Ukraine, Poland is next.

wow that's some laughable stuff.  And this yard gnome thinks he scares Poland? 

[sburke]

New Punishments Await Russian Defectors as Putin Grows Alarmed Over Ukraine (msn.com)

[Harmon Rabb]

31 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

wow that's some laughable stuff.  And this yard gnome thinks he scares Poland? 

Sounds like some boastful trash talk you would hear before a WWE match.

I'm wondering if he was taking drugs or alcohol before making this video.

Edited May 25, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Huba]

15 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

wow that's some laughable stuff.  And this yard gnome thinks he scares Poland? 

It is extremely sad that a proud Chechen nation, who fought so hard for their independence has been reduced to this despicable state. Shows what being under Russian rule does to you, no wonder Ukrainians prefer death than that.

Edited May 25, 2022 by Huba

[sburke]

Russia’s army is in a woeful state | The Economist

behind a paywall, but excerpt kinda tells it all

 

The job of organizing NATO’s biggest military exercise since the cold war kept Admiral James Foggo, then the commander of American naval forces in Europe and Africa, busy in the summer of 2018. Trident Juncture was to gather 50,000 personnel, 250 aircraft and 65 warships in the European Arctic in October. As logistically taxing as that sounds, it was small fry compared with what Russia was planning in Siberia in September. The Vostok exercises would be the biggest since the Soviet Union’s mammoth Zapad drills of 1981, boasted Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister: they would involve 300,000 troops, 1,000 aircraft and 80 warships.

This was a huge feat. “It was a big lift for us to get 50,000 people in the field,” recalled Admiral Foggo recently. “How did they do that?” The answer, he eventually realized, was that they did not do it. A company of troops (150 at most) at Vostok was counted as a battalion or even a regiment (closer to 1,000). Single warships were passed off as whole squadrons. This chicanery might have been a warning sign that not everything was as it seemed in the Russian armed forces, even before they got bogged down in the suburbs of Kyiv.

[Centurian52]

1 hour ago, Fernando said:

If the Russians use T-62M, then I guess it would make sense to send the 100 Leopard-1 to Ukraine

I would put favorable odds on the Leopard 1 any day. Neither are ideal for modern warfare. The armor of both the T-62M (and I think I saw some T-62MVs on the train as well) and the Leopard 1A5 is worthless against any modern AT weapon. And both have underpowered guns by modern standards. But at least the Leopard 1A5 has thermal sights and a fire-control system.

Edited May 25, 2022 by Centurian52

[BlackMoria]

48 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

The leader of the the TikTok troopers announces that after the inevitable defeat of Ukraine, Poland is next.

I hope someone puts a HE round into this clown's pie hole.   Just saying....

[Cederic]

Me, today: "They're taking Lyman? Wasn't that a bad thing?"

So I figured I'd best go and check what people were saying about Lyman, as I recalled some discussion on that.

On 4/30/2022 at 4:31 PM, Battlefront.com said:

All three approaches from the Lyman area are unlikely to succeed as the combination of bad terrain and prepared Ukrainian positions make it unlikely that any one would work out.

Turns out it's taken Russia four weeks (even with the distraction of an expected breakthrough at Popsana) to even reach Lyman, something that offers them minimal to no material advantages.

Ouch.

[Cederic]

sorry, user error

Edited May 25, 2022 by Cederic

[Battlefront.com]

46 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Spot on.

 

The thing is, no matter who uses the T-62s it means logistics now had another family of vehicles to support.  To me this indicates that they don't have sufficient quantities of T-90, T-80, or T-72 in near ready condition to cover all their needs.  If they did, I doubt they'd be pulling T-62s out for anybody.

Steve