How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

1 minute ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/25-may-echelon-with-t62-tanks-arrived-in-melitopol-occupied
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/25-may-t62-tanks-with-additional-diy-armor-spot-in-polohy

T-62M being spotted inside Ukraine and nearing the front lines. unbelievable

Not saying there isn't a role for them but damn, I though the T-72 pockets would have been way deeper.

 

Or as Kofman suggested maybe there are indeed some B/C-category formations that have this equipment and are being deployed.

 

Maybe this will be where the crews come from

Russian parliament approves bill to remove military age limits (msn.com)

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

They've got several people in command positions in that AO who are smart, adaptive, experienced and determined, but most importantly have been given the leeway from higher ups and the correct forces to try this approach.

It bodes badly because it means that the required changes within the RUS army are starting to happen, and have been very clearly proved on the battlefield. It means that the competent officers are finally floating to the top and more battlefield success will accelerate that process, as successful officers are rewarded and promoted and bring like-minded people with them. This process was and is inevitable - unless totally ****ed with politically by higher ups.

A lot of big assumptions there.  Who are the officers you are referring to or are you just assuming this from the fact that the Russians actually advanced?  Haiduk seems to feel this is more because of the collapse of a couple Territorial units.

I'd caution against assuming that this reflects better people rising to the top.  It sounds too much like a western perspective on how forces respond to battle experience.  I wouldn't assume that is also true in Russia.  Darwinism may have different answers, like the smart ones find a way to get the fk out of there.

[Harmon Rabb]

10 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/25-may-echelon-with-t62-tanks-arrived-in-melitopol-occupied
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/25-may-t62-tanks-with-additional-diy-armor-spot-in-polohy

T-62M being spotted inside Ukraine and nearing the front lines. unbelievable

Not saying there isn't a role for them but damn, I though the T-72 pockets would have been way deeper.

 

Or as Kofman suggested maybe there are indeed some B/C-category formations that have this equipment and are being deployed.

 

How long until we start seeing T-34s on the battlefield?

Since Putin enjoys bringing up World War 2 over and over again why not?

Edited May 25, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/25-may-echelon-with-t62-tanks-arrived-in-melitopol-occupied
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/25-may-t62-tanks-with-additional-diy-armor-spot-in-polohy

T-62M being spotted inside Ukraine and nearing the front lines. unbelievable

Not saying there isn't a role for them but damn, I though the T-72 pockets would have been way deeper.

 

Or as Kofman suggested maybe there are indeed some B/C-category formations that have this equipment and are being deployed.

 

Kofman hasn't been playing CMCW.  The T62 can still play...back in 1982.  On the modern battlefield it is a coffin on tracks, likely being driven by scared teenagers with 15 mins of training time.  And supported by a logistical system that has had the guts shot out of it.

So for those keeping score, this point right here is when Russia became the underdog in this whole thing.  A very bad underdog...bad...bad...go poop in your own yard!

[Battlefront.com]

Video of trainload of T-62s:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/uxhgj2/such_is_its_desperation_the_russian_federation/

Steve

[OldSarge]

10 minutes ago, sburke said:

I'd caution against assuming that this reflects better people rising to the top.  It sounds too much like a western perspective on how forces respond to battle experience.  I wouldn't assume that is also true in Russia.  Darwinism may have different answers, like the smart ones find a way to get the fk out of there.

Of course, the Peter Principle has to be considered as well, the principle that members of a hierarchy are promoted until they reach the level at which they are no longer competent. A lieutenant that is a competent platoon leader may very well suck as a company commander.

Edited May 25, 2022 by OldSarge

[sburke]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

So does that mean they are defaulting? 

 

yes and no.  It means that it is very hard for them to avoid default but it won't happen immediately.

 

Russia Loses Its Default Defense in 48 Hours. Here's What That Means (msn.com)

 

There's evidence that Russia has tried to avoid default.

On May 20, Russia's finance ministry rushed in two payments, $71.25 million for a dollar-denominated bond and €26.5 million for euro-denominated bonds due on May 27, according to Reuters.

But for how long can Russia stave off default?

It's only a matter of time, according to Nazli, who says the default can be deleted but is inevitable.

"They have two bonds that have payments on June 23 and if there's no extension from the U.S. side, then these get delayed," Nazli explained. "The 30-day grace period is triggered and then at the end of the 30-day grace period, which I think would be the 22nd of July or so, at the end of July, you would have a default situation."

The Russian Ministry of Finance said they could resort to repaying their debts in rubles, but default would still be unescapable, as the legal requirements of the incoming foreign bonds to be repaid dictate payment in dollars.

 

Coincidentally for Russia, summer is when I think the UA expects to really begin a serious effort to drive Russia out.  Too weird it will be exactly 80 years for both the Russian and German assaults in 1942 in the same area.

[dan/california]

Two questions about the T-62s, although only one is actually relevant unfortunately.

1) How resistant are they to whatever AP ammo the Ukrainians are currently using in the 30mm on their BMPs?

2) How many of them can the latest Abrams APDSFS depleted uranium round go through before it slows down in an unfortunate BMP-1?

[sburke]

1 minute ago, OldSarge said:

Of course, the Peter Principle has to be considered as well, the principle that members of a hierarchy are promoted until they reach the level at which they are no longer competent. A lieutenant that is a competent platoon leader may very well suck as a company commander.

back in my early days at AT&T (late 1980s) this always seemed to be how they found the crew managers.  With a few exceptions they were the worst technicians.  They wanted to get paid to sit behind a desk and do nothing.

[Battlefront.com]

Video that has been mentioned a few times now with English translation.  It's from a DPR battalion that is basically saying they've had it with this war as they are physically and emotionally exhausted:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/uxgks0/dpr_statement_as_of_230522_only_60_of_the/

 

[Vacillator]

5 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

the principle that members of a hierarchy are promoted until they reach the level at which they are no longer competent

And in some (many?) organisations they are then promoted again to move them on, as they are not useful to the immediate team.

[The_MonkeyKing]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Kofman hasn't been playing CMCW.  The T62 can still play...back in 1982.  On the modern battlefield it is a coffin on tracks, likely being driven by scared teenagers with 15 mins of training time.  And supported by a logistical system that has had the guts shot out of it.

So for those keeping score, this point right here is when Russia became the underdog in this whole thing.  A very bad underdog...bad...bad...go poop in your own yard!

Older tanks cannot play the MBT role on the battlefield. But these can still be useful in other roles like supporting fire.

Arguably better than nothing on the tactical scale. In CM you have a task of clearing a village. You can have T-62 platoon to go with your motorized company or not. Easy decision, I want that firepower even if it means only shoot and scoot at static positions with extreme caution to not lose them.

Strategic level "profitability" might be another story (like logistical train for an old and a new tank is similar and also the personal cost)

[Kinophile]

20 minutes ago, sburke said:

A lot of big assumptions there.  Who are the officers you are referring to or are you just assuming this from the fact that the Russians actually advanced?  Haiduk seems to feel this is more because of the collapse of a couple Territorial units.

I'd caution against assuming that this reflects better people rising to the top.  It sounds too much like a western perspective on how forces respond to battle experience.  I wouldn't assume that is also true in Russia.  Darwinism may have different answers, like the smart ones find a way to get the fk out of there.

Absolutely.

But there are definitely some conclusions we can draw:

• RUS pushed hard on a sector to get something to happen
• UKR local collapse was speedily and properly exploited by RUS forces
• Its the first proper unit fail since the early war and the RUS command immediately exploited it

So someone on the RUS side put enough pressure to create something to happen, and when it did they advanced in a more sensible manner, making better use of their advantages than has happened before. Also, Haiduk mentioned a "younger" more adaptive RUS MG in the area.

Yes, smart people should leave the war but they clearly aren't, or cant. Also, there's plenty of smart people who are 100% on side with the war, or don't want to abandon their friends/career.  So they're still in the Army and if surviving will steadily move up. Its been three months of high attrition of the RUS  officer corps so at this point someone was going to be a decent command position, and ready to react to an opportunity like this, i.e. our RUS MG friend, above.

You're certainly right that RUS army doesn't promote upwards like westerns, there's a lot more graft and old-boy networking, which I doubt has gone away because of Ze War, but still...

 

Edited May 25, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Kofman hasn't been playing CMCW.  The T62 can still play...back in 1982.  On the modern battlefield it is a coffin on tracks, likely being driven by scared teenagers with 15 mins of training time.  And supported by a logistical system that has had the guts shot out of it.

So for those keeping score, this point right here is when Russia became the underdog in this whole thing.  A very bad underdog...bad...bad...go poop in your own yard!

Makes those who were saying the Leo 1 would be useless in Ukraine seem a little silly now, right?  It's newer than a T-62!

I am also surprised that they appear to have run out of T-72s to put into the field and had to scrape out the T-62s.  This really shows how much stuff they've lost in Ukraine and underscores how ill prepared Russia was to take those kinds of losses.

Steve

[Kinophile]

Pfft. Leos are a, well...lets not revitalize that zombie.

Just because Ivan is doing it doesn't mean its smart (in fact if they're doing it then its high odds that its not smart).

They're warming up T62 paper-mache fisher-price cars because they have to.

Edited May 25, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

The gift that keeps on giving... drone footage from the failed bridging attempt at Dronivka.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/uxh0ux/a_couple_of_weeks_ago_a_russian_attempt_to_cross/

Steve

[Kinophile]

@Battlefront.com were approaching Group Intervention threshold...

[Fernando]

If the Russians use T-62M, then I guess it would make sense to send the 100 Leopard-1 to Ukraine

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Excellent Kofman thread:
"The overall military balance in this war still trends in Ukraine's favor, given manpower availability and access to extensive Western military support. That will show itself more over time. But the local balance in the Donbas during this phase is a different story. 10/"
"I think we shouldn't overstate the significance of the Russian breakthrough at Popasna, but also consider the implications. Are UKR forces going to be in a position to conduct a major counteroffensive in the near term, or will both sides face a degree of exhaustion? 13/"
"In my view it is too early to make predictions on how the battle for the Donbas will go. Ukraine may lose territory in the short term, but Russia faces major problems with sustaining its military effort in the long term, or holding on to gains. The war could become protracted."

 

The map shared here via MonkeyKing's post is always great for my mental health.  "OMG the RU is in Lyman!  OMG they have moved beyond Popasne!"

Oh wait, That is a pretty darn small chunk of territory.  The only significant UKR loss would be if their units get trapped and captured.  Ah, feeling better.  Looking at local situation tends to make things seem more serious.

Meanwhile, AKD shared a post showing UKR video of destroyed BMP.  The thing I noted was that the UKR soldiers drove up in a civilian SUV.  I keep wondering why we haven't sent a gazillion humvees & other light vehicles.  Anything that could at least stop an AK round or light shrapnel would be better than driving around w a door panels that couldn't stop anything.

Edited May 25, 2022 by danfrodo
typo

[BlackMoria]

I would of figured that Steve would have fevered dreams of those bridging operations given how that he was like a dog with a bone he wouldn't give up easily.  With or without the joyous Ukrainian singing.  

Edited May 25, 2022 by BlackMoria

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

I would of figured that Steve would have fevered dreams of those bridging operations given how that was a bone he wouldn't give easily.  With or without the joyous Ukrainian singing.  

The bastards could just release ALL of the video at once and I'd be done with it.  But they're such teases

Aside from it being the first video I've logged for that particular bridging attempt, the hit on the BMP at the end of the clip was pretty interesting.  We've not had too many detailed videos of shoulder launched AT weapons landing a hit.

Steve

[MSBoxer]

31 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Video of trainload of T-62s:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/uxhgj2/such_is_its_desperation_the_russian_federation/

Steve

I have to wonder what the maintenance/reliability levels are like?  They look pretty though.

[sburke]

10 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Absolutely.

But there are definitely some conclusions we can draw:

• RUS pushed hard on a sector to get something to happen
• UKR local collapse was speedily and properly exploited by RUS forces
• Its the first proper unit fail since the early war and the RUS command immediately exploited it

So someone on the RUS side put enough pressure to create something to happen, and when it did they advanced in a more sensible manner, making better use of their advantages than has happened before. Also, Haiduk mentioned a "younger" more adaptive RUS MG in the area.

I am still in the skeptical column.  We are only talking a 7-10 km advance on a narrow front.  It is unfortunate, but not exactly a rapier thrust.  In addition. it isn't clear they can maintain the momentum.  From ISW on May 22nd

Russian forces made only minimal gains in eastern Ukraine on May 22. New reporting confirmed that Russian troops previously recaptured Rubizhne in northern Kharkiv Oblast, on May 19. Russian forces are likely committing additional reinforcements to hold their positions on the west bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in northern Kharkiv—rather than withdrawing across the river to use it as a defensive position—to prevent any further Ukrainian advances to the north or the east that could threaten Russian lines of communication to the Izyum axis. Ukrainian sources additionally confirmed previous Russian-claimed advances around Popasna, and Russian forces likely seek to open a new line of advance north from Popasna to complete the encirclement of Severodonetsk while simultaneously driving west toward Bakhmut, though Russian forces are unlikely to be able to fully resource both lines of advance simultaneously.

ISW report from yesterday.

Russian forces have begun steadily advancing efforts in these different encirclements daily but have not achieved any major “breakthroughs” or made major progress towards their stated objectives of securing the Donetsk Oblast borders or seizing all of Donbas.

The highlighted line tells me Russia is still trying to do too much at once with limited logistical capability.  The reporting over 3 days indicates that after that initial push when the territorial units pulled out, they are back to a grinding advance.  For me this would account for the UA still not pulling out of the salient.  They do not expect to see a rapid enough advance to threaten their rear quite yet.  i.e. they are not panicked by that 7-10 km thrust.

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The bastards could just release ALL of the video at once and I'd be done with it.  But they're such teases

Aside from it being the first video I've logged for that particular bridging attempt, the hit on the BMP at the end of the clip was pretty interesting.  We've not had too many detailed videos of shoulder launched AT weapons landing a hit.

Steve

ah, was a Spanish Instalaza that did it.  Good to see Spain's aid making a difference.

[sburke]

Nice response to NY Times suggestion of appeasement.

Ukraine Newspaper Warns New York Times Not to 'Appease' Putin (msn.com)

 

The Kyiv Independent, an English-language Ukrainian newspaper, hit back on Tuesday with a fiery editorial of its own. The paper's editorial board slammed the "disappointing" article that is said "attempts to pass off appeasement and betrayal of the free world's values as pragmatic reasoning."

The Independent accused the Times of calling for the West to "appease" Putin by "giving up" in the conflict, which would have wide-reaching consequences, the editorial said.

"Make no mistake: If you appease a dictator, whose troops regularly indulge in war crimes, it will lead to a catastrophic geopolitical shift," the editorial reads. "A Russian military victory would lead to land grabs and brutal conquest becoming the new norm. Allowing a power-hungry fascist dictatorship to succeed will encourage other dictatorships to try."