How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile 

Major Yuri Melekhin, commander 1st Spetsnaz Detachment of the 16th Separate Spetsnaz Brigade:

 

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, c3k said:

Ask the average Ukrainian soldier: if they could wave a magic wand and have every 155/152 system replaced with a 203/8" system (magically and at no cost), would they? (Other than the loaders, they'd all say yes.  )

Tube artillery is a very relevant weapon system. It has been augmented by other ranged fires systems, but not replaced or supplanted. (Like the battleship was by carriers.)

155s bring a lot more to the game than 105. Well...8" has a place (maybe just a niche).

The issue here is that as far as I can tell,  between modern L52 or L59 SPG and HIMARS/ MLRS, that niche is just too small to justify the whole new weapon system with new logistic tail, training,  manning, etc. 

[JonS]

16 minutes ago, c3k said:

(magically and at no cost), would they?

I like free stuff too. While you're at it, ask if they'd like a free Lamborghini and free date with their partner of choice.

But, weirdly, that isn't how either purchasing or capability decisions are made.

[FancyCat]

You'll find another video if you click on the thread.

 

[Cederic]

1 hour ago, c3k said:

For range, the gun would be better than a howitzer.

Educate the ignorant if you could: can't both shoot at flat and high trajectories, thus negating the difference between a gun and a howitzer? Surely it's just a matter of how high you point it?

[JonS]

Very generally, in theory, a 'gun' has a higher MV, longer barrel, and flatter trajectory (below 45°) for direct fire accuracy, and often use fixed rounds. An 'howitzer' has lower MV, shorter barrel, and higher trajectory (above 45°) for better HE effectiveness on the target, along with separate loading of round and variable propellant.

In practice, most/all modern artillery are gun-howitzers, which seek - successfully - to combine the advantages of both.

Edited May 24, 2022 by JonS

[Sequoia]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

If the US Army really want's longer ranged barrel launched fires, they should stop messing around with the 109, and just buy a ton of PzH2000s. 60+km is nothing to sneeze at (and what's wrong with RAP anyway?).

Other than the Harrier, I can't think of a major purchase of a foreign made weapons system by the US Military, but I'm not the most informed guy around. Given the huge US defense budget, it seems the US always prefers to keep it's citizens employed by building it's own stuff, even if it's not the most cost efficient choice. Not to mention Congress sometimes forcing the military to purchase equipment it doesn't want.

[JonS]

Yeah, I'm well aware of that little quirk but the US has been messing around with the 109 for ... 40 years? and just can't seem to get it to a great place.

[Machor]

I may soon need to start a new CMSF thread:

"U.S. raises concern over Turkey's plans for new offensive along Syria border"

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/new-offensive-northern-syria-would-further-undermine-regional-stability-us-state-2022-05-24/?taid=628d4c079c851e00019e0f83&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

""We recognize Turkey's legitimate security concerns on Turkey's southern border, but any new offensive would further undermine regional stability and put at risk U.S. forces and the coalition’s campaign against ISIS," he said.

Erdogan on Monday said Ankara would soon launch new military operations along its southern borders to create safe zones 30 km (20 miles) deep to combat what he characterized as terrorist threats from these regions.

The operation will likely target the north of Syria, where Turkey has launched several military operations since 2016 to undermine the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG), an armed Syrian offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

Ankara has conducted three incursions into northern Syria since 2016, seizing hundreds of kilometers of land and pushing some 30 km deep into the country, in operations targeting mainly the U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish YPG militia.

It has also stepped up military operations against PKK militants in northern Iraq in recent years.

Turkey views both groups as a single terrorist entity. Its NATO allies only view the PKK as a terrorist group, not the YPG.

The United States was expecting Turkey to live up to a October 2019 joint statement, including a halt in offensive operations in northeastern Syria, Price said. "We condemn any escalation. We support maintenance of the current ceasefire lines.""

"Analysis: Erdogan's vow to expand Syria operations raises stakes in Turkey-NATO row"

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/erdogans-vow-expand-syria-operations-raises-stakes-turkey-nato-row-2022-05-24/

"Erdogan hopes to leverage the issue of Swedish and Finnish membership of NATO into an opportunity to achieve his long-held goal of creating a buffer zone free of Kurdish fighters along Turkey's entire border with Syria, analysts said.

His move comes as opinion polls show support for Erdogan and his ruling AK Party sagging amid deepening economic woes. Turkey holds presidential and parliamentary elections in 2023."

My take:

- I'm not buying the previously posted account that the Biden administration greenlighted this. Much more likely to be an explicit or tacit agreement between Turkey and Russia. If so:

- Masterfully played by Russia. We've been blasting them for their ineptitude throughout this thread, but this time they killed several birds with one stone: Sow division within NATO; divert Western publics' attention away from Ukraine; etc.

- Erdoğan, too, gets an 'A': More bargaining room for the arms embargoes and F-16Vs; ongoing Turkish Lira crash explained away as hostile manipulation; chance to win elections in 2023 and not have to 'pull a Lukashenko'.

[Machor]

15 minutes ago, Sequoia said:

Other than the Harrier, I can't think of a major purchase of a foreign made weapons system by the US Military

You wrote "foreign made," but I think the context implies "foreign designed."

Off the top of my head:

Stryker

M777 Howitzer

M119 Howitzer

M120 Mortar

M252 Mortar

M136 AT4

M9 Beretta

[panzermartin]

Erdogan seems  almost a double agent of Russia within NATO. A lot depends on the outcome in Ukraine, then we will see Turkey pushing things in aegean more actively. Almost considering my trip to Dodecanese islands this summer lol. 

[JonS]

13 minutes ago, Machor said:

You wrote "foreign made," but I think the context implies "foreign designed."

Off the top of my head:

Stryker

M777 Howitzer

M119 Howitzer

M120 Mortar

M252 Mortar

M136 AT4

M9 Beretta

Also the L7 cannon used in MBTs for decades. But the point still stands - the US does seem inclined to go with homegrown to an unusual degree

Edited May 24, 2022 by JonS

[c3k]

1 hour ago, Cederic said:

Educate the ignorant if you could: can't both shoot at flat and high trajectories, thus negating the difference between a gun and a howitzer? Surely it's just a matter of how high you point it?

At the risk of going one post too many on a tangent about this arty stuff, the difference between a gun and a howitzer (these days) is barrel length. It used to be the elevation: howitzer had a higher elevation. The howitzers generally had a lower power charge/shorter barrel. The gun had higher charge, higher muzzle velocity, longer length.

These days, the nomenclature refers more to barrel length (and the concomitant characteristics of the relative lengths) than the elevation.

So, a "gun" has a longer barrel than a "howitzer", even if they both shoot the same shell and have a carriage capable of the same elevations.

That longer barrel gives the ability to produce higher muzzle velocities (given the same chamber pressure limits, etc.), hence a longer range.

That's why the PzH2000 has a 40km range (an L52 gun) vs  the M109 ~24km range (an L39 howitzer).

Toss some excalibur guided munitions with base-bleed and limited glide capability into an L52 (or the newer L59) and you're talking 100km ballpark capability. (I think a PzH2000 fired a shell out to 67km. The 100km ballpark refers to L59 under development as the US Army's extended range artillery concept (or whatnot).)

TL;DR: guns have longer tubes (as a ratio of caliber) than howitzers.

[c3k]

20 minutes ago, Machor said:

You wrote "foreign made," but I think the context implies "foreign designed."

Off the top of my head:

Stryker

M777 Howitzer

M119 Howitzer

M120 Mortar

M252 Mortar

M136 AT4

M9 Beretta

M68 105mm cannon? Familiar to our British cousins as the L7.

[Cederic]

Thank you both. 100km range is significant - imagine an hour's drive to see where your shells landed!

 

[dan/california]

Russias complete mismanagement of the whole DPR/ LPR thing isn't getting better, might in fact be getting worse.....

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Russias complete mismanagement of the whole DPR/ LPR thing isn't getting better, might in fact be getting worse.....

Anyone have an opinion if the DPR guys are actually attempting something closer to home? Or they just don't want the Russians to use them for recon by death?

Apologies for making this two posts...

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Machor said:

His move comes as opinion polls show support for Erdogan and his ruling AK Party sagging amid deepening economic woes. Turkey holds presidential and parliamentary elections in 2023."

My take:

- I'm not buying the previously posted account that the Biden administration greenlighted this. Much more likely to be an explicit or tacit agreement between Turkey and Russia. If so:

Why would this need to have the involvement of Russia in any positive way?  Turkey could have (rightly) concluded now was an excellent time to launch an offensive as NATO is fully distracted by Ukraine while Turkey is not.  Turkey might have sent a note to Putin saying "we're just giving you a heads up that you might want to remove your troops" and what's Putin going to do about it as he, even more than NATO, is not able to respond.

My bet is Erdogan is just taking advantage of this mess and neither NATO nor Russia was involved in it.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

Anyone have an opinion if the DPR guys are actually attempting something closer to home? Or they just don't want the Russians to use them for recon by death?

DPR forces are fully engaged all along their frontline and have been since the first day of the war.  Any significant withdrawal of forces to LPR territory weakens their efforts.  They already have some units fighting up around Kharkiv and that didn't go do well.

Follow up from ISW:

Quote

Forcefully mobilized servicemen from the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics continued to protest the Russian and proxy military command. Servicemen of the 3rd Infantry Battalion of the 105th Infantry Regiment from the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) recorded a video appeal to DNR Head Denis Pushilin wherein they claimed they were mobilized on February 23 and that they have been forced to actively participate in hostilities despite their lack of military experience. The battalion stated that they served on the frontlines in Mariupol and have been redeployed to the territory of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) with only 60% of their original personnel and are now dealing with severe morale issues and physical exhaustion. The battalion notably claimed that the servicemen did not go through routine medical inspection prior to service and that many are suffering from chronic illnesses that should have rendered them ineligible for service. The video appeal is consistent with numerous reports from Ukrainian and Western sources that proxy forces are largely forcibly mobilized, poorly trained, and suffering from declining morale, but is notable due to the willingness of the DNR servicemen to publicly express their discontent.[8]

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, JonS said:

Also the L7 cannon used in MBTs for decades. But the point still stands - the US does seem inclined to go with homegrown to an unusual degree

Yup.  No coincidence that US has the biggest, most advanced, and most diversified arms industry in the world.  The US Gov't floods them with money, they flood the Pentagon with stuff.  Some of it actually useful!

Yet there are exceptions.  M249 (FN-MAG) is another example of a foreign weapon in US service.  However, that is slated to be replaced by a US system.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, sburke said:

seems he was killed in action

Retired Russian Air Force Major General Banamat Botashev, 63, has become the 13th general to die in Ukrainian territory since Russia invaded on Feb. 24, according to a tally by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense. (Russia’s Defense Ministry has confirmed only two, and U.S. officials have not given a specific number). He was reportedly shot down by Ukrainian forces over the Luhansk region on Sunday, becoming the highest-ranking air force commander to be killed in the war.

Another Russian General Reported Dead in Ukraine (msn.com)

 

Weeeeeeeel, this guy was retired at the time of his death.  So technically he wasn't a Russian general per se and certainly wasn't acting in that sort of capacity.  I'd put him down as a footnote, not in the list with the active general officers.  The Russians are losing senior officers so fast we can afford to be picky about who goes on the list

Steve

[Canada Guy]

I know nothing about artillery ballistics but it created some questions

- can you create a long range 90mm piece? I am thinking something very mobile (and a 90mm should be able to be much more mobile than a 105mm or a 155mm) but with an Excalibur type shell. I don't think you need a large caliber if you can be precise. Especially against tops of vehicles.

- what about shooting drones (switchblade equivalent) out of arty? Not sure if it could take the g-force but it would increase the range by 40-50 kms. You could place precision loitering munitions 100 kms in the enemy rear. 

[chuckdyke]

12 minutes ago, Canada Guy said:

what about shooting drones (switchblade equivalent) out of arty?

It can be done same principle as laser beam riding which can be done through the main gun of Russian MBT's. Switch blades just need to be launched from inside some kind of sabot and naturally a reduced propellant load. Makes me think some kind of anti-armor grenade can fly inside the main gun barrel of an MBT? Thing called the hornet thrown into the air and controlled by some grunt using a PDA.

Combat Laser Guided Anti-Tank Missile (defense-update.com)

Edited May 25, 2022 by chuckdyke

[sburke]

40 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Weeeeeeeel, this guy was retired at the time of his death.  So technically he wasn't a Russian general per se and certainly wasn't acting in that sort of capacity.  I'd put him down as a footnote, not in the list with the active general officers.  The Russians are losing senior officers so fast we can afford to be picky about who goes on the list

Steve

LOL okay he's demoted.. posthumously.  but how does a retired general at 63 get into an Su 25? wtf?

Edited May 25, 2022 by sburke

[JonS]

33 minutes ago, Canada Guy said:

create a long range 90mm piece?

In principle, yes. Range is a function of MV, air resistance, and angle of departure. But as you'll know from throwing rocks and stones, there is a kind of sweet spot - too light/small and air resistance dominates and it won't go far. Too large/heavy and you just can't realistically hiff it. But in the middle is a comfortable size and weight where momentum plays well with friction.

You can add bling to make it go further - base bleed or RAP - but that takes up payload space, and a 90mm round just isn't that big to start with. If you have a 90mm with RAP, you've sort of created something with all the effectiveness of a cherry bomb. A very expensive cherry bomb, and one you can throw a really long way. But still ... a cherry bomb.

Edited May 25, 2022 by JonS