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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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11 minutes ago, Huba said:

Another CAESAR video:

 

I haven't noticed any modifications to the vehicle. Everything seems to be present (intertial navigation etc) except maybe a radio in the back. The vehicle has been fitted with armor plates (we had the same in Afghanistan), which are bolted to the base armour. There would still be the interior to check but the video does not show it. The radio system could be different because we don't see the case open in the rear, nor anything suggesting that it is present (we can do without it). Finally, the crew used seems to be that of the regulations and complete, i.e. 5 crews.

PS : the camouflage is the standard one (Centre-Europe (Central Europe))

Edited by Taranis
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9 minutes ago, Taranis said:

I haven't noticed any modifications to the vehicle. Everything seems to be present (intertial navigation etc) except maybe a radio in the back. The vehicle has been fitted with armor plates (we had the same in Afghanistan), which are bolted to the base armour. There would still be the interior to check but the video does not show it. The radio system could be different because we don't see the case open in the rear, nor anything suggesting that it is present (we can do without it). Finally, the crew used seems to be that of the regulations and complete, i.e. 5 crews.

PS : the camouflage is the standard one (Centre-Europe (Central Europe))

Thanks for the comment, interesting as always!

In the meantime, France clarified it's stance on Ukraine's EU ascension:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-reassures-ukraine-it-will-be-part-european-union-2022-05-24/

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15 minutes ago, Taranis said:

↓Popasna area

Russian forces reportedly reached Bilohorivka and Nahirne villages between Bakhmut and Lysychansk

https://t.me/censor_net/12918

If Ukrainian plan is to retreat from the whole salient, now is the last moment to do it - I don't think they will though. Even if Russians manage to push much further north, to the Donets itself, it still doesn't mean they will have the circle closed, logistically at least. The whole force on the ring will have to be supplied from Popasna unless they build a bridge through the Donets and keep it from being destroyed by UA artillery. There are some roads there that RUS could use, but nothing meaningful. Unless they take Bakhmut, those encircling forces will be extremely exposed.

BTW: I just realized how much the situation now is reminiscent of the Battle of Kursk - we have the spearhead advancing and trying to cut off the UA salient (albeit only from one side, the second was killed before it even started). Now we should see a counterattack by fresh reserves that will beat the advance.

Edited by Huba
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13 minutes ago, Huba said:

If Ukrainian plan is to retreat from the whole salient, now is the last moment to do it - I don't think they will though. Even if Russians manage to push much further north, to the Donets itself, it still doesn't mean they will have the circle closed, logistically at least. The whole force on the ring will have to be supplied from Popasna unless they build a bridge through the Donets and keep it from being destroyed by UA artillery. There are some roads there that RUS could use, but nothing meaningful. Unless they take Bakhmut, those encircling forces will be extremely exposed.

The thoughts of Jomini about this :
media%2FFTezG4QXoAAVLG-.jpg%3Fname%3Dorig
"5/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Despite continued heavy losses in the Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD, Russian forces have successfully achieved a localized breakthrough in the Popasna area as well as numerous incremental gains along the Izium & Lyman axes & between Horlivka & Donetsk"

"6/ The Russian MoD allocated a small operational maneuver group (OMG) of its most capable forces to punch through the secondary Popasna defensive line and exploit this breach toward Soladar in the west and Lysychansik to the north, likely with the intent of forming a cauldron."

"21/ As stated previously, the breakthrough at Popasna has been the result of a better application of doctrinal methodologies and the integration of new combat assets (like BMPT AFV) that has allowed Russian forces to maneuver more effectively and outflank Ukrainian defenses"

"22/ Likewise, supporting this has been a missing element of Russian offensive capability, effective supply of sustained combat operations. The Popasna OMG has remained effective largely in part because it has been better supplied than previous Russian offensives."

"23/ However, the stability of the Russian breakout from Popasna depends on the long-term coherence of this OMGs logistic sustainment. Otherwise it will be unable to make gains for much longer, let alone create a cauldron in Severodonetsk that forces Ukraine forces to withdraw."

 

https://nitter.net/i/status/1528892442791256064

 

 

 

 

Edited by Taranis
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23 minutes ago, Huba said:

If Ukrainian plan is to retreat from the whole salient, now is the last moment to do it - I don't think they will though. Even if Russians manage to push much further north, to the Donets itself, it still doesn't mean they will have the circle closed, logistically at least. The whole force on the ring will have to be supplied from Popasna unless they build a bridge through the Donets and keep it from being destroyed by UA artillery. There are some roads there that RUS could use, but nothing meaningful. Unless they take Bakhmut, those encircling forces will be extremely exposed.

BTW: I just realized how much the situation now is reminiscent of the Battle of Kursk - we have the spearhead advancing and trying to cut off the UA salient (albeit only from one side, the second was killed before it even started). Now we should see a counterattack by fresh reserves that will beat the advance.

Also a comment from War in Ukraine (youtube channel) :
"

URGENT UPDATE: Russian troops captured villages Nagirne and Bilogorivka (potentially Vasylivka) and thereby cut the main but not the only one road from Bahmut to Severodonetsk. See picture below. It's a major negative development for Ukrainian army in Popasna area. The chances of Ukrainian army forced withdrawal or encirclement  are going up extremely.

UPDATE 2: Russian troops - 4th LNR brigade captured Toshkivka."
18Df6snwsF6h-Tw4bIn_YQPe4sj7JeDeFIVNrOcg3YNvX-xSUyPTAVOXKTN7ad1B_xRaQ_W7IRNBbA=s640-c-fcrop64=1,302f0000cfd0ffff-nd-v1

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12 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Also a comment from War in Ukraine (youtube channel) :
"

URGENT UPDATE: Russian troops captured villages Nagirne and Bilogorivka (potentially Vasylivka) and thereby cut the main but not the only one road from Bahmut to Severodonetsk. See picture below. It's a major negative development for Ukrainian army in Popasna area. The chances of Ukrainian army forced withdrawal or encirclement  are going up extremely.

UPDATE 2: Russian troops - 4th LNR brigade captured Toshkivka."
18Df6snwsF6h-Tw4bIn_YQPe4sj7JeDeFIVNrOcg3YNvX-xSUyPTAVOXKTN7ad1B_xRaQ_W7IRNBbA=s640-c-fcrop64=1,302f0000cfd0ffff-nd-v1

 

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1 minute ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Interesting story. Reminds me of the stories of how Otto Skorzeny used captured American uniforms and weapons to get behind Allied lines and create havoc. 

Some Dutch POWs who spoke excellent German made some German uniforms from their blankets and walked out of the gate. All variations of the Trojan Horse. 

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10 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Interesting story. Reminds me of the stories of how Otto Skorzeny used captured American uniforms and weapons to get behind Allied lines and create havoc. 

Yes, Operation Greif.

I take this opportunity to remind those who do not know that it is possible to create this in the CM editor. Just indicate blue vs blue, buy the disguised troops then put back blue vs red. This allows to have Germans accompanied by soldiers in US uniforms, jeeps, halftracks etc. This is valid for Final Blitzkrieg but also on Black Sea (for future scenarios :) )

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8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

One thing is very clear... there is a change in tone from Russian sources since the failed river crossing.  The fact that any of this is reaching our eyes/ears has significance of some sort.  It at least indicates there is a tip of an iceberg, whereas before May we had no indications of an iceberg at all.  Now, it could be a small iceberg or a Titanic killer.  We don't have enough info to make a judgement.  But I think it's safe to conclude that the predicted push back against the war exists and is gaining some amount of strength.  Not surprisingly, it seems to be the ultra hardcore warmongers that are the most vocal.

Steve 

And the warmongers will be the winners of any power struggle. They have too much power to be overthrown and their argument ("if only they had listened to us, we'd be having this conversation in Kiev") is far more compelling until the Russian capacity for continuing is exhausted.

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8 hours ago, JonS said:

That's fair CG, but what is the target set? If it's fixed infrastructure then you don't need active ISR - bridges don't tend to move much - but that piddly payload isn't going to do anything. If you're going after AFVs (although at 100km you really should be going after force multipliers, like refuelling trucks or engineering support vehicles) then you're going to need active ISR throughout the mission, in which case ... just use that as the delivery platform?

Deep strike Decapitation?

If you can fire an assassination drone 100km from Ukraine with another 30 km to search out your target, you could start striking operational and strategic level VIPs.

At Home. 

At the Dacha.

 

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19 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Deep strike Decapitation?

If you can fire an assassination drone 100km from Ukraine with another 30 km to search out your target, you could start striking operational and strategic level VIPs.

At Home. 

At the Dacha.

 

Why not use MLRS for that, or MLRS launched drone if you really need loiter time? 

Edited by Huba
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6 minutes ago, z1812 said:

"For now, all we know is that the first stage of the war included an ill-fated march on Kyiv and a failed attempt to encircle Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv. Was it a part of the plan for a broad occupation or a way of distracting Ukrainian forces while Russia was establishing the land corridor to Crimea?"

I see some journalists are still giving credibility to the idea that Russia's attempt to take Kyiv was some sort of distraction on a large scale.

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9 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

"For now, all we know is that the first stage of the war included an ill-fated march on Kyiv and a failed attempt to encircle Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv. Was it a part of the plan for a broad occupation or a way of distracting Ukrainian forces while Russia was establishing the land corridor to Crimea?"

I see some journalists are still giving credibility to the idea that Russia's attempt to take Kyiv was some sort of distraction on a large scale.

Yes... Lose 10k+ troops and thousands of vehicles for a distraction.

 

I remain a master strategist.

-Darth Putin (credit)

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6 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

"For now, all we know is that the first stage of the war included an ill-fated march on Kyiv and a failed attempt to encircle Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv. Was it a part of the plan for a broad occupation or a way of distracting Ukrainian forces while Russia was establishing the land corridor to Crimea?"

I see some journalists are still giving credibility to the idea that Russia's attempt to take Kyiv was some sort of distraction on a large scale.

To be honest, the narrative here is more important than the truth and Russia has been determined to push that narrative.

There is another option, that Russia tried for a coup de main, with the option of holding Kiev on the one hand or just installing a new government and leaving if civil resistance looked like it was too strong. Even if that new government subsequently fell, the punitive effect would remain and Ukraine would become more compliant in the future. 

Looking forward to the final verdict as history is written...

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The call for MLRS keeps being repeated by UA. It's hard to disagree that if Ukraine is to win, it needs SUPERIOR firepower, not just enough that it does not collapse immediately, like is being provided now. I really hope US will find resolve to cross this threshold, otherwise the future looks bleak. The narrative about Russia trying to starve the world is getting more and more traction recently, maybe this will be used as an argument to provide weapons to take out Russian bases.

 

Edited by Huba
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