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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

UKR troops withdrawing from Lyman and taking aboard of own BTR-80 a group of own comrades, which withdraw on foot.

The words of background song:

There, where we stand to the end

And the war will not break us

Our faith unites hearts

Ukraine is alive forever!

 

UKR troops reportedly continue resistance in Lyman, but in SE part of the town, there is a clashes reported around railway station and 5-storey residentilal areas. The video which I posted above with retreating UKR soldiers was geolocated as northern part of Lyman

On this picture the route of BTR from this video - they drive to SE part

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Approximate defense line of UKR trops in Lyman several hours ago.

Зображення

Edited by Haiduk
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35 minutes ago, Cederic said:

Me, today: "They're taking Lyman? Wasn't that a bad thing?"

So I figured I'd best go and check what people were saying about Lyman, as I recalled some discussion on that.

Turns out it's taken Russia four weeks (even with the distraction of an expected breakthrough at Popsana) to even reach Lyman, something that offers them minimal to no material advantages.

Ouch.

Yeah, that kinda sums up this entire offensive.  They make a breakthrough, everybody gets in a tizzy about where it's headed, then it bogs down, and weeks later the Russians finally got to what should have been an intermediate objective.

Once Russia finally takes Lyman they have a pretty nice defensive line, as does Ukraine.  It will be interesting to see if the Russians go over on the defensive there and use it mostly as an artillery base to hit Slavyansk and LOCs to the south of the river *or* if they are going to try and cross again.

ISW has said that the Izyum forces have been getting ready to resume offensive operations, but I don't see that as being very likely.  They've not been able to do much of anything out of there and Ukrainian pressure on the western flank seems to still be quite significant.  If Russia is smart they'll focus everything out of Popasna.

Steve

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Just now, akd said:

I suspect the future of the T-62s is as Pantherturms, maybe with only 3, or even 2, crew members each.

I thought about that too, but isn't that just an absolute deathtrap with all the ATGMs? OTOH Russians might just not care... 

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30 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

ISW has said that the Izyum forces have been getting ready to resume offensive operations, but I don't see that as being very likely

Yesterday Izium group tried to attack simultainously with assault of Lyman. Two enemy BTGs after artlillery shelling tried to advance to Krasnopillia - Bohorodychne line, but our artillery forced them to stop. Also Russians made a probe engineer recon of Siverskyi Donets bank in Pryshyb village area, but TD unit engaged Russians and they retreated. 

Reportedly the commander of "Izium group" is colonel-general Gennadiy Zhydko, the deputy of MoD of Russia - the chief of main militray-political directorate of Russian Armed forces. Speaking simplier he is main "politruk" or "zampolit" of Russian army.

Interesting coincidences:

- Russians launched own main phase of offensdive on 22th of May 2022. This day is 22nd anniversary of Putin's ruling. Putin likes symbolism

- almost simultainosly with offensive, suddenly strong choir of voices on the West raised "Ukraine must make concessions to Russia for the sake of peace / for the sake of avoiding of world food crіsіs"

- Putin's trade "cancel sanctions against Russia for UKrainian ports unblocking"

- EU meeting on 30-31th of May where can be a "battle" for 6th batch of sanctions angaisnt pro-Russian lobby

Edited by Haiduk
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43 minutes ago, akd said:

I suspect the future of the T-62s is as Pantherturms, maybe with only 3, or even 2, crew members each

Oh this is an interesting note - The T-62 has a crew of 4 as opposed to the T-72 which has a crew of 3.  This means that the Russians will either have to run them with 3 (or 2 as you say!) men per tank or devote 1/3 extra man-power per tank.  How feasible it is for these units to do either is something I don't know, but I imagine switching seats during battle or having the commander take on other duties is not optimal.

Edited by fireship4
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2 hours ago, akd said:

I suspect the future of the T-62s is as Pantherturms, maybe with only 3, or even 2, crew members each.

I'd do it with one crewmember: the driver.  Have them drive in front, absorb the ATGMs, and allow the T72s to drive onto the objective.

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