How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, sburke said:

LOL okay he's demoted.. posthumously.  but how does a retired general at 63 get into an Su 25? wtf?

Seems he was flying for Wagner.  Since Wagner has always been an extension of the Russian Armed Forces, access to an Su-25 is not out of the question.  My theory is that the VVS doesn't want to fly close support missions and therefore Wagner thought it would give it a try.  Did not turn out so well.

Steve

[danfrodo]

good riddance.  It's one thing to be forced to fight by Russian army.  It's another thing to choose to fight to enslave a free nation.  I hope there's lots more downed Russian jets to join him soon.

Not a lot of movement in the lines today have been reported, I will assume that's mostly a good thing.  Reports coming out about Russians inside Lyman. 

Did I miss something or is that about it for the news?

[sburke]

28-Drone Swarm Just Led The Way For A Simulated Air Assault Mission (msn.com)

[Battlefront.com]

In the category of "hope it's true" and also "that makes sense" RUMINT, one of Russia's only significant anti-Putin news organization (in exile now, of course) is reporting that various power blocs within Moscow are lining up Putin's replacement.  You know, for when the eventually retires!  Hush your mouth if you were thinking they might be entertaining the idea of overthrowing the glorious leader!

As we discussed VERY early in the war, and are seeing increasing evidence of, the hardliners are not happy with this war because it's been an utter failure and makes Russia look weak.  The article seems to indicate that some have moved beyond blaming incompetent underlings and are now pointing fingers at Putin himself.  That's never a good sign in Russia, because the tradition is that the Tzar is not to be pointed at.

The peace wing, as they put it, is nothing more than the ones who want money and cushy Western style lifestyles.  Peace, for them, is just the best way to do that.  My guess even prior to the war kicking off is that this group would move on Putin first as they had the most to lose by this idiocy.  The rash of FSB oligarch slaughter incidents, which apparently came just after a failed coup attempt, seem to reinforce my thinking.

Time will tell.

Quote

During the three months of the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin turned both the hawks, the “party of war,” and the doves, those who want peace, against himself.  In the Kremlin, everyone seems to hope that he will leave “in the near future” and is already looking for a successor.

According to Medusa that is citing sources.

According to the publication, during the war, the general mood of Russia’s elites were changing completely several times – from confusion at the beginning and “patriotic upsurge” in April to pessimism three months after the invasion.

According to sources close to the Kremlin, many people are now dissatisfied with Vladimir Putin personally. And this position is held by those who support the continuation of the war, and those who want peace.

Medusa’s informants note that even the figures of the president’s successors are being secretly discussed in the Kremlin. Among them are Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, Deputy Security Council Chairman Dmitry Medvedev and Administration of the President First Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko who recently became the Kremlin’s curator of the Donbas.

According to the informants, so far it is not a matter of overthrowing the Russian president but rather the topic of “the future after Putin” that is increasingly being discussed. It seems “there is an understanding or wish that he will not rule the country in the near future.”

At the same time, they emphasize that Putin can leave the presidency only because of a serious deterioration in health. Thus, the dissatisfaction of high-ranking officials is not manifested in anything but private conversations.

 

[billbindc]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

In the category of "hope it's true" and also "that makes sense" RUMINT, one of Russia's only significant anti-Putin news organization (in exile now, of course) is reporting that various power blocs within Moscow are lining up Putin's replacement.  You know, for when the eventually retires!  Hush your mouth if you were thinking they might be entertaining the idea of overthrowing the glorious leader!

As we discussed VERY early in the war, and are seeing increasing evidence of, the hardliners are not happy with this war because it's been an utter failure and makes Russia look weak.  The article seems to indicate that some have moved beyond blaming incompetent underlings and are now pointing fingers at Putin himself.  That's never a good sign in Russia, because the tradition is that the Tzar is not to be pointed at.

The peace wing, as they put it, is nothing more than the ones who want money and cushy Western style lifestyles.  Peace, for them, is just the best way to do that.  My guess even prior to the war kicking off is that this group would move on Putin first as they had the most to lose by this idiocy.  The rash of FSB oligarch slaughter incidents, which apparently came just after a failed coup attempt, seem to reinforce my thinking.

Time will tell.

 

I'm less than convinced of these stories. The rule of thumb I would use is that if you've heard about it, it's either not serious or it's chickenfeed designed to support a particular agenda (i.e. the hardliners wanting to make the peaceniks look disloyal). At the moment, the levers of power are very tightly held and if Putin is ushered off the stage it will come from the small coterie very close to him. Patrushev is the likeliest candidate to take over and we are unlikely to see it until it's been happening for a while. The deprecating stories of Putin directing individual companies make me think maybe the process has already begun.

[MikeyD]

I recall waaaay at the beginning of this thread there was a report of a Russian news program airing a special report about the history of regicide in Europe. Obviously it was meant to prep the public for the decapitation of the Ukraine government. Now that program has taken on other meanings.

Edited May 25, 2022 by MikeyD

[Battlefront.com]

Because it's been a couple of days since anybody posted some significant bad news for Russia's economy, allow me to correct for that:

Quote

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration will start blocking Russia from paying American bondholders, increasing the likelihood of the first default of Russia’s foreign debt in more than a century.

An exemption to the sweeping sanctions that the United States imposed on Russia as punishment for its invasion of Ukraine has allowed Moscow to keep paying its debts since February. But that carve-out will expire on Wednesday, and the United States will not extend it, according to a notice published by the Treasury Department on Tuesday. As a result, Russia will be unable to make billions of dollars of debt and interest payments on bonds held by foreign investors.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/24/us/politics/russian-debt-treasury.html?campaign_id=249&emc=edit_ruwb_20220524&instance_id=62268&nl=russia-ukraine-war-briefing&regi_id=77867169&segment_id=93228&te=1&user_id=06eb42ecc9056dd32ea63af0c30707b6

This article is behind a paywall, but I'm sure there's plenty of coverage out there to check in on.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I'm less than convinced of these stories. The rule of thumb I would use is that if you've heard about it, it's either not serious or it's chickenfeed designed to support a particular agenda (i.e. the hardliners wanting to make the peaceniks look disloyal). At the moment, the levers of power are very tightly held and if Putin is ushered off the stage it will come from the small coterie very close to him. Patrushev is the likeliest candidate to take over and we are unlikely to see it until it's been happening for a while. The deprecating stories of Putin directing individual companies make me think maybe the process has already begun.

Oh yes, for sure the specifics that leak out are unlikely to indicate change is afoot in this specific way.  However, there's always more than one way to read Russian information/disinformation to get at some tea leaves.

The first is what you pointed out which is that one side leaks info about another in order to satisfy their own selfish interests.  And that tells us something about what's going on behind the scenes because when was the last time you heard rumors of people within the Kremlin talking about what comes after Putin?  Coming out now, with growing dissatisfaction about the war and Putin's rumored health problems, is likely not a coincidence.

The second possibility is that this is something that the Russian state wants us to see in order to distract us.  I don't think that's what is going on here.  Putin would not authorize any information to go out that would make him look like a lame duck ready for replacement.

There's other possibilities that I don't think are applicable here, such as baiting would-be-traitors (in Putin's eyes) to show themselves (a sting operation) or a lower level power struggle (governorship) spilling over beyond its borders.  Again, these are unlikely because targeting Putin is extremely dangerous.  You might find yourself murdering your children and then hanging yourself.

Which is to say that I think there's something to this report.  Very small grains of truth, perhaps, but something that indicates business is not as usual within the halls of power over in Putingrad.

More coverage of the same reporting:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/24/moscow-insiders-discuss-vladimir-putin-successor-unease-ukraine/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

One thing is very clear... there is a change in tone from Russian sources since the failed river crossing.  The fact that any of this is reaching our eyes/ears has significance of some sort.  It at least indicates there is a tip of an iceberg, whereas before May we had no indications of an iceberg at all.  Now, it could be a small iceberg or a Titanic killer.  We don't have enough info to make a judgement.  But I think it's safe to conclude that the predicted push back against the war exists and is gaining some amount of strength.  Not surprisingly, it seems to be the ultra hardcore warmongers that are the most vocal.

Steve 

[sburke]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Which is to say that I think there's something to this report.  Very small grains of truth, perhaps, but something that indicates business is not as usual within the halls of power over in Putingrad.

More coverage of the same reporting:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/24/moscow-insiders-discuss-vladimir-putin-successor-unease-ukraine/

Steve

Trying to read the tea leaves there is a frustrating endeavor.  mostly cause I am impatient for Putin to meet his maker.  This was also posted today from Daily Mail

Putin promotes personal bodyguard to 'Emergencies Minister' (msn.com)

Putin promotes personal bodyguard to 'Emergencies Minister'

Vladimir Putin has promoted his former personal bodyguard to be the Kremlin's new Emergencies Minister, months after his predecessor mysteriously fell to his death from a waterfall. Major-General Alexander Kurenkov, 49, seen with Putin, was nominated on Tuesday by Putin. He is the sixth bodyguard to the Russian president to be appointed to high government office.  

 

Zinichev, who held the rank of general, had enjoyed a spectacular rise under Putin and had been tipped for a new powerful role on the Kremlin's security council when he was killed in the mysterious Arctic incident. Professor Valery Solovey - linked to Telegram Channel General SVR - claimed: 'I will say right away that it was not the death, but the murder, of the general. He did not die alone, several other people died with him.'

Edited May 25, 2022 by sburke

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh yes, for sure the specifics that leak out are unlikely to indicate change is afoot in this specific way.  However, there's always more than one way to read Russian information/disinformation to get at some tea leaves.

The first is what you pointed out which is that one side leaks info about another in order to satisfy their own selfish interests.  And that tells us something about what's going on behind the scenes because when was the last time you heard rumors of people within the Kremlin talking about what comes after Putin?  Coming out now, with growing dissatisfaction about the war and Putin's rumored health problems, is likely not a coincidence.

The second possibility is that this is something that the Russian state wants us to see in order to distract us.  I don't think that's what is going on here.  Putin would not authorize any information to go out that would make him look like a lame duck ready for replacement.

There's other possibilities that I don't think are applicable here, such as baiting would-be-traitors (in Putin's eyes) to show themselves (a sting operation) or a lower level power struggle (governorship) spilling over beyond its borders.  Again, these are unlikely because targeting Putin is extremely dangerous.  You might find yourself murdering your children and then hanging yourself.

Which is to say that I think there's something to this report.  Very small grains of truth, perhaps, but something that indicates business is not as usual within the halls of power over in Putingrad.

Steve

The Russian government is such a faction ridden mess that some faction might try a coup as self defense. Quiet retirements don't seem to be on offer. One group or another might decide it makes as much sense to take a swing as does to strike out looking when the penalty is this drastic either way. Ukraine of course trying every which way to help this along.

[Canada Guy]

Steve - the forcing of default is a bigger deal than I think most people realise. This would push Russia out of the financial markets for years and would have a very serious negative long term impact upon Russia. This could spur on the oligarchs more than simple sanctions.

JonS - yes a 90mm cherry bomb but since the Switchblade is not even that powerful, precision would have a power all of its own. Those repurposed AT grenades cannot be any bigger - maybe I'm wrong. I was thinking light and precise may outweigh large and unwieldy. 

[Canada Guy]

Steve - the forcing of default is a bigger deal than I think most people realise. This would push Russia out of the financial markets for years and would have a very serious negative long term impact upon Russia. This could spur on the oligarchs more than simple sanctions.

JonS - yes a 90mm cherry bomb but since the Switchblade is not even that powerful, precision would have a power all of its own. Those repurposed AT grenades cannot be any bigger - maybe I'm wrong. I was thinking light and precise may outweigh large and unwieldy. 

[JonS]

That's fair CG, but what is the target set? If it's fixed infrastructure then you don't need active ISR - bridges don't tend to move much - but that piddly payload isn't going to do anything. If you're going after AFVs (although at 100km you really should be going after force multipliers, like refuelling trucks or engineering support vehicles) then you're going to need active ISR throughout the mission, in which case ... just use that as the delivery platform?

[fireship4]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Seems he was flying for Wagner.  Since Wagner has always been an extension of the Russian Armed Forces, access to an Su-25 is not out of the question.  My theory is that the VVS doesn't want to fly close support missions and therefore Wagner thought it would give it a try.  Did not turn out so well.

Steve

                                      

                

Edited May 25, 2022 by fireship4

[fireship4]

Source: https://nitter.net/J_JHelin/status/1529191316088815616#m via @DefMon3

EDIT: Links with the images overlaid on the terrain for loading into Google Earth (the Desktop version, they won't show in the web version for some reason): John Helin 2022.05.25 1.kmzJohn Helin 2022.05.25 2.kmz

Edited May 25, 2022 by fireship4

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh yes, for sure the specifics that leak out are unlikely to indicate change is afoot in this specific way.  However, there's always more than one way to read Russian information/disinformation to get at some tea leaves.

The first is what you pointed out which is that one side leaks info about another in order to satisfy their own selfish interests.  And that tells us something about what's going on behind the scenes because when was the last time you heard rumors of people within the Kremlin talking about what comes after Putin?  Coming out now, with growing dissatisfaction about the war and Putin's rumored health problems, is likely not a coincidence.

The second possibility is that this is something that the Russian state wants us to see in order to distract us.  I don't think that's what is going on here.  Putin would not authorize any information to go out that would make him look like a lame duck ready for replacement.

There's other possibilities that I don't think are applicable here, such as baiting would-be-traitors (in Putin's eyes) to show themselves (a sting operation) or a lower level power struggle (governorship) spilling over beyond its borders.  Again, these are unlikely because targeting Putin is extremely dangerous.  You might find yourself murdering your children and then hanging yourself.

Which is to say that I think there's something to this report.  Very small grains of truth, perhaps, but something that indicates business is not as usual within the halls of power over in Putingrad.

More coverage of the same reporting:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/24/moscow-insiders-discuss-vladimir-putin-successor-unease-ukraine/

Steve

Doesn't matter though. Whoever comes after putin will not be better. It's Russia. The only question will he be more barbaric or less barbaric. The war will not stop, but it may just give certain western governments an excuse to lift sanctions and be friends with russians again.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, fireship4 said:

Source: https://nitter.net/J_JHelin/status/1529191316088815616#m via @DefMon3

EDIT: Links with the images overlaid on the terrain for loading into Google Earth (the Desktop version, they won't show in the web version for some reason): John Helin 2022.05.25 1.kmzJohn Helin 2022.05.25 2.kmz

Of course, as nearly 3 months of poring over maps has taught us, don't take those "Giant Red Arrows" to be any more than indicative of intent, not accomplishment.

They could also be a single road wide (a front of a single vehicle).

 

Edited May 25, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[womble]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This article is behind a paywall, but I'm sure there's plenty of coverage out there to check in on.

The beeb has coverage: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61569560 Doesn't seem to go into much detail about ramifications.

[Huba]

4 hours ago, Canada Guy said:

I know nothing about artillery ballistics but it created some questions

- can you create a long range 90mm piece? I am thinking something very mobile (and a 90mm should be able to be much more mobile than a 105mm or a 155mm) but with an Excalibur type shell. I don't think you need a large caliber if you can be precise. Especially against tops of vehicles.

- what about shooting drones (switchblade equivalent) out of arty? Not sure if it could take the g-force but it would increase the range by 40-50 kms. You could place precision loitering munitions 100 kms in the enemy rear. 

Apart from Excalibur/ Copperhead/ Krasnopol which are just guided rounds, it is possible to deploy at least some "smart sub-munitions" like in case of SADARM. Given the physics though, guns are really not optimal for launching drone- like munitions, compared to rocket launchers.

Now for MLRS, BM-30 has   UAV launched from the tube since the '80s I think. For US built stuff, the Ground Launched SDB, if fielded and coupled with SDB II, gives you a gliding "drone" straight away. IIRC, the venerable Assault Breaker program envisioned a swarm of "drones/ smart submunitions" deployed with rockets.

[Huba]

3 hours ago, JonS said:

That's fair CG, but what is the target set? If it's fixed infrastructure then you don't need active ISR - bridges don't tend to move much - but that piddly payload isn't going to do anything. If you're going after AFVs (although at 100km you really should be going after force multipliers, like refuelling trucks or engineering support vehicles) then you're going to need active ISR throughout the mission, in which case ... just use that as the delivery platform?

Additionally, what is the point in going down to small calibers if we are thinking about a really long range engagements? The only advangate the 90mm has over say 155 or rockets is that it could be really small and mobile. It would matter on platoon/ company/ battalion level maybe, but to shoot at 100km we are talking corps or higher level assets - here the platform size isn't really that important, and what you want is rockets to optimize the payload size and ease the requirements due to high-g resistance.

Edit: on the low level, an interesting idea would be to have  data-linked 120 mm round, both mortar and tank-gun launched. You could easily achieve say 10km range with both, and have a really short flight time to position. I doubt though that you could fit a meaningful warhead on top of fully functional recce-drone in such a small package. For the mentioned weapon systems it shouldn't be a problem though, as you could follow-up with other, lethal rounds.

Edited May 25, 2022 by Huba

[fireship4]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This article is behind a paywall

One can toggle 'reader view' (or the equivalent formatting removal mode in your browser) a couple of times and it'll show the whole thing, a byproduct of making the whole article indexable by search engines I believe.

Edited May 25, 2022 by fireship4

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

There's other possibilities that I don't think are applicable here, such as baiting would-be-traitors (in Putin's eyes) to show themselves (a sting operation) 

Hee hee, the "Controlled Oppposition" works very well, until it doesn't....

(sorry, no shorter clip available. Minute 26:04)

Trilisser: But for what are these men to be shot?

Stalin: For conspiracy to subvert our Revolution.

Trilisser: But, they were acting under our instructions.

Stalin: Does that excuse them?

[Taranis]

 

Video of Russian military echelon with T62 tanks

 

 

[Huba]

Another CAESAR video:

 

Edited May 25, 2022 by Huba