How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

The call for MLRS keeps being repeated by UA. It's hard to disagree that if Ukraine is to win, it needs SUPERIOR firepower, not just enough that it does not collapse immediately, like is being provided now. I really hope US will find resolve to cross this threshold, otherwise the future looks bleak.

 

I wholeheartedly agree with that. Unfortunately, our president is showing about the same amount of backbone that he did in Afghanistan last year.  Maybe one of the other allies that bought American M270 MLRS can start the ball rolling by donating one of their systems?

[Harmon Rabb]

10 minutes ago, riptides said:

Yes... Lose 10k+ troops and thousands of vehicles for a distraction.

 

I remain a master strategist.

-Darth Putin (credit)

 

[Kinophile]

7 minutes ago, billbindc said:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/putins-pivot-to-a-really-big-war-in-ukraine

Soldatov on Putin and the war.

 

Ninja'd! DAAMAMMN YOOUUUUUU

[Huba]

39 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

I wholeheartedly agree with that. Unfortunately, our president is showing about the same amount of backbone that he did in Afghanistan last year.  Maybe one of the other allies that bought American M270 MLRS can start the ball rolling by donating one of their systems?

Romania has a battalion of HIMARS, I'd look there. Finns might do it, but not until they are admitted to NATO. 

Of courde there's always Germany

[Battlefront.com]

You guys will find this funny.  Yesterday I got a COVID booster and had a mild reaction resulting in a fever.  I went to bed and for 5 hours I woke up every 45 minutes or so from the same dream.  What was that dream?  High altitude drone footage of the entire Siverskyi Donets from Izyum to Severodonetsk with the Ukrainians singing their Bayraktar song.  Seriously, 5 hours... only dream.

Steve

[Huba]

So does that mean they are defaulting? 

 

[sburke]

40 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

You guys will find this funny.  Yesterday I got a COVID booster and had a mild reaction resulting in a fever.  I went to bed and for 5 hours I woke up every 45 minutes or so from the same dream.  What was that dream?  High altitude drone footage of the entire Siverskyi Donets from Izyum to Severodonetsk with the Ukrainians singing their Bayraktar song.  Seriously, 5 hours... only dream.

Steve

you are gonna be a meme.

 

on the booster

[chrisl]

42 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

You guys will find this funny.  Yesterday I got a COVID booster and had a mild reaction resulting in a fever.  I went to bed and for 5 hours I woke up every 45 minutes or so from the same dream.  What was that dream?  High altitude drone footage of the entire Siverskyi Donets from Izyum to Severodonetsk with the Ukrainians singing their Bayraktar song.  Seriously, 5 hours... only dream.

Steve

So did the force positions change along the river on each pass?  Are you seeing the future and can you get the info to the UA?

[billbindc]

32 minutes ago, Huba said:

So does that mean they are defaulting? 

 

Yes.

[dan/california]

What concerns me is that the Russians are making gains at the same time their losses seem to gave declined.

[dan/california]

There also seem to be claims that that one company of Terminators has moved the needle. Is there any actual evidence of this? 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

You guys will find this funny.  Yesterday I got a COVID booster and had a mild reaction resulting in a fever.  I went to bed and for 5 hours I woke up every 45 minutes or so from the same dream.  What was that dream?  High altitude drone footage of the entire Siverskyi Donets from Izyum to Severodonetsk with the Ukrainians singing their Bayraktar song.  Seriously, 5 hours... only dream.

Steve

Sounds like you and Gerasimov were psychically linked for a while....

[The_MonkeyKing]

Excellent Kofman thread:
"The overall military balance in this war still trends in Ukraine's favor, given manpower availability and access to extensive Western military support. That will show itself more over time. But the local balance in the Donbas during this phase is a different story. 10/"
"I think we shouldn't overstate the significance of the Russian breakthrough at Popasna, but also consider the implications. Are UKR forces going to be in a position to conduct a major counteroffensive in the near term, or will both sides face a degree of exhaustion? 13/"
"In my view it is too early to make predictions on how the battle for the Donbas will go. Ukraine may lose territory in the short term, but Russia faces major problems with sustaining its military effort in the long term, or holding on to gains. The war could become protracted."

 

[Kinophile]

18 minutes ago, dan/california said:

There also seem to be claims that that one company of Terminators has moved the needle. Is there any actual evidence of this? 

I doubt its the BMPTs themselves are the cause, but the use of mech infantry in a sensible manner. The BMPTs are definitely useful and dangerous, as more modern vehicles than the usual BMP trash, but if used in a dumb manner a la the last 3 months then they'd be easily turned into grainy black and white videos.

For me, the danger of Popasna isn't the breakthrough itself, but that local RUS command adapted enough to force it, chose a good spot do do it and seem able to carry it through to a full encirclement.  I know there's doubts about the logistics for this push, but I don't think UKR will be able Kiev-style its logisitics and stop the Popasna spearhead's push. The GLOC is short, easily defended (no massive forests and bad terrain) well protected and now has the psychological weight of a desperately needed tactical victory behind it. They'll get what they need at the price of any other AO, and Russia can  take those hits. 

They've got several people in command positions in that AO who are smart, adaptive, experienced and determined, but most importantly have been given the leeway from higher ups and the correct forces to try this approach.

It bodes badly because it means that the required changes within the RUS army are starting to happen, and have been very clearly proved on the battlefield. It means that the competent officers are finally floating to the top and more battlefield success will accelerate that process, as successful officers are rewarded and promoted and bring like-minded people with them. This process was and is inevitable - unless totally ****ed with politically by higher ups.

But Russia needs success, Putin needs success, the Russian Army high command needs success; so successful officers will be protected and elevated.

If UKR was to launch a proper offensive somewhere it needs to do it ASAP, before the RUS army can populate those better officers throughout the front. Even then, any offensive that starts to succeed will be met by those more capable cadres.

UKR/US decapitation efforts need to ramp up significantly.

Edited May 25, 2022 by Kinophile

[akd]

93rd Mech Brigade with destroyed T-72B3 and captured BK14M HEAT rounds:

Destroyed BMP-3. Interesting because the cause of destruction appears to be fragmentation from above:

 

Edited May 25, 2022 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

46 minutes ago, chrisl said:

So did the force positions change along the river on each pass?  Are you seeing the future and can you get the info to the UA?

You kid, but one of the times I started to wake up I thought I had some major revelation about the whole operation.  Then I fully woke up, realized the "footage" I was reviewing in my dream was all fiction, chuckled, and went back to sleep for yet another round of drone footage and joyful Ukrainian singing.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

35 minutes ago, dan/california said:

There also seem to be claims that that one company of Terminators has moved the needle. Is there any actual evidence of this? 

I don't put any stock in that report at all.  Those vehicles are interesting, but they aren't game changers.  T-72s in the same place and time would likely be just as effective.

Steve

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Sergey Nikitin, 74th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade:

Maj. Ivan Budkin, chief of staff of 2nd Airborne Battalion, 234th Airborne Regiment, 76th Air-Assault Division:

Another merc pilot killed:
 

 

Edited May 25, 2022 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, akd said:

Destroyed BMP-3. Interesting because the cause of destruction appears to be fragmentation from above:

Are you talking about the turret?  Those holes appear to have been made from the inside, likely from ammo detonation.  Which is definitely interesting because it shows the top armor is thin enough to be penetrated by sub-optimal HE fragmentation.  Also, check on the commander's hatch!  Looks like it shattered.

My guess is this one took a hit just behind the turret by a Javelin.  From what I've seen in this war so far, Javelins make a much bigger mess out of what it hits than anything else.  The warhead on a Jav is ridiculously overmatched for a BMP.

Steve

[mosuri]

55 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Yes.

And if that wasn't enough to deter foreign investors, this thing is moving forward

Russian lawmakers give initial approval to bill allowing foreign asset takeover

[riptides]

50 minutes ago, dan/california said:

What concerns me is that the Russians are making gains at the same time their losses seem to gave declined.

Losses are still coming in.....

 

 

[JonS]

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Deep strike Decapitation?

If you can fire an assassination drone 100km from Ukraine with another 30 km to search out your target, you could start striking operational and strategic level VIPs.

At Home. 

At the Dacha.

 

Out of a 90mm carrier round? This is sounding more and more like Homer Simpson's car, and a solution in search of a problem.

[Kinophile]

3 minutes ago, JonS said:

Out of a 90mm carrier round? This is sounding more and more like Homer Simpson's car, and a solution in search of a problem.

Hahah nice. I meant from a 155mm but yah its a stretch. Missile/rocket is a better option.

Edited May 25, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

53 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Excellent Kofman thread:
"The overall military balance in this war still trends in Ukraine's favor, given manpower availability and access to extensive Western military support. That will show itself more over time. But the local balance in the Donbas during this phase is a different story. 10/"
"I think we shouldn't overstate the significance of the Russian breakthrough at Popasna, but also consider the implications. Are UKR forces going to be in a position to conduct a major counteroffensive in the near term, or will both sides face a degree of exhaustion? 13/"
"In my view it is too early to make predictions on how the battle for the Donbas will go. Ukraine may lose territory in the short term, but Russia faces major problems with sustaining its military effort in the long term, or holding on to gains. The war could become protracted."

 

Excellent indeed!  It was nice to see him advising against people using the term "stalemate".  That was bandied about way too frequently 2 months ago (I did a search on "stalemate" in this thread and found my rants about people using the term going back to early March) and needs to stay out of the conversation.  Kofman's warning that pauses might look like stalemate is right on the money.

He concluded with this pearl of wisdom:

Quote

Will add, this is why I often refrain that it is difficult to tell where you are in a war. Big turning points are easiest to discern in hindsight. In the present many tactical events seem to take on outsized significance.

Absolutely spot on. 

Popasna is a definite threat to Ukraine and, right now, it looks like Russia has the upper hand and Ukraine is stretched too thin to knock it back.  However, it is too soon to say because we've seen this sort of thing play out several times in this war where it starts out looking good for Russia and then ends up the opposite.  But conditions might have changed and Russia very well might come away with a localized victory.  It won't likely change the outcome of the war, but it could change the course of events for the next month or two.

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/25-may-echelon-with-t62-tanks-arrived-in-melitopol-occupied
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/25-may-t62-tanks-with-additional-diy-armor-spot-in-polohy

T-62M being spotted inside Ukraine and nearing the front lines. unbelievable

Not saying there isn't a role for them but damn, I though the T-72 pockets would have been way deeper.

 

Or as Kofman suggested maybe there are indeed some B/C-category formations that have this equipment and are being deployed.