How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

He should tell which blend and make a fortune.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/ukrainian-soldier-sips-coffee-amid-firefight/vi-AA15zqlb?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=89d0647776e6405e845f27ed6a7b45c9

[Huba]

52 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Interesting thoughts, but I suspect your threshold is a good bit too high given modern communications (which makes comparisons to Czarist or Stalinist times of limited value).  I'll accept that 350k is not the tipping point though.

...What about the community consisting of Russian armed forces careerists and siloviki? Threshold for pain is higher, sure, but what, maybe 25, 35 million in military families (parents included)?

Consider the case of the Russian Afghan war, which was wound down in part (though not entirely, and after some 8 years) owing to an upwelling of protests by bereaved families (50k = 15 KIA + 35 WIA). So clearly, some kind of tipping point was reached albeit not insurrectionary.

Note that nobody here is claiming body count ends the war all on its own. Nor will sanctions nor anything else, on its own.

 

Russo - Japanese war of 1905 is IMO the closest analogy to what's going on right now, not a war of national survival, but miscalculated imperial adventure in the near abroad. RU took around 300k casualties there, including 50K killed in battle and suffered a humiliating defeat from the hands of enemy they thought to be inferior in every way. It ended in a revolution, but not the total collapse of the regime, the outcome that (broadly speaking) is in my opinion also most likely to happen presently.

Edited December 23, 2022 by Huba

[sburke]

Putin says Russia wants end to war in Ukraine (yahoo.com)

Quote

 

Thu, December 22, 2022 at 8:45 AM PST
(Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia wants an end to the war in Ukraine and that this would inevitably involve a diplomatic solution.

Putin made the comments a day after U.S. President Joe Biden hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the White House and promised him continued and unwavering U.S. support.

"Our goal is not to spin the flywheel of military conflict, but, on the contrary, to end this war," Putin said. "We will strive for an end to this, and the sooner the better, of course."

White House spokesman John Kirby said Putin has "shown absolutely zero indication that he's willing to negotiate" an end to the war, which began when Moscow sent troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.

"Quite the contrary," Kirby told reporters during an online briefing. "Everything he (Putin) is doing on the ground and in the air bespeaks a man who wants to continue to visit violence upon the Ukrainian people" and "escalate the war."

 

 

What war?  Isn't this a special military operation?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Fighting to retake areas on outskirts NE of Bakhmut from last month:

 

I feel cold and wet now and I didn't even have to go outside for it.  Thanks.

Was that Maxim at the end captured or did they bring it along on their own?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, sburke said:

Putin says Russia wants end to war in Ukraine (yahoo.com)

 

What war?  Isn't this a special military operation?

This is nothing new.  He and his minions have said similar things since the start of the war.  It seems his latest was an attempt to take some of the wind out of Zelensky's sails.  Fat chance of that

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Was that Maxim at the end captured or did they bring it along on their own?

Steve

Whatever happens, we have got

the Maxim gun

and they have not

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, sburke said:

Putin says Russia wants end to war in Ukraine (yahoo.com)

 

What war?  Isn't this a special military operation?

It is war now, please try to keep up .

 

[Aragorn2002]

On 12/20/2022 at 12:10 AM, SteelRain said:

For all of you guys wondering why the Bundeswehr is so reluctant to donate Bundeswehr Marder IFV's to Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/puma-tank-failure-is-heavy-setback-for-germany-defence-ministry/ar-AA15qN6V

One company of PzGrenBtl 112 was on exercise and all of its 18 Puma IFV's, that were upgraded to the newest Version Puma S1/Puma VJTF in 2020, failed within 8 days of training. The commander of 10. PzDiv explicitly mentioned that the Pumas were not exposed to heavy duty use.
PzGrenBtl 112 with its Pumas was scheduled to take over the VJTF lead by 01.01.2023. Now it has to fulfill this role with its aging Marders.

Conclusion:

After 10 years in service and an extensive upgrade in 2020 which should bring the puma to a "war ready" state the Puma is still plagued by all kinds of Problems.

Es ist zum Kotzen.

[MikeyD]

What did they used to say about WWII German armor? Over-designed, expensive and labor intensive to produce, and finicky to maintain. Building something that's like a fine Swiss watch is all well and good if you're making watches. Otherwise you ought to make what you're building a bit more robust.

[paxromana]

1 hour ago, MikeyD said:

What did they used to say about WWII German armor? Over-designed, expensive and labor intensive to produce, and finicky to maintain. Building something that's like a fine Swiss watch is all well and good if you're making watches. Otherwise you ought to make what you're building a bit more robust.

Yes, it was slow to produce because of poor design decisions (machining parts like the gun mantlet whereas the Russians left the edges raw) but the maintenance was mainly a problem because Hitler emphasised producing entire Tanks and slighted producing spare parts.

Edited December 23, 2022 by paxromana

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, paxromana said:

Yes, it was slow to produce because of poor design decisions (machining parts like the gun mantlet whereas the Russians left the edges raw) but the maintenance was mainly a problem because Hitler emphasised producing entire Tanks and slighted producing spare parts.

They probably wouldnt have had the logistics for things like that anyway. They had winter uniforms for the barbarosa campaign but couldnt get them to the front

[Thomm]

Objection, relevance!

[Kinophile]

Sustained. 

Councillor,  you seem to be arguing a different case... 

Edited December 23, 2022 by Kinophile

[Billy Ringo]

I woke up this morning to sub zero wind chills, howling wind and a little ice/snow on the ground.  Worried about the heat, do we have food in the fridge for a day or so, are the roads clear enough to go see my girlfriend,  etc.

Then I thought about Ukraine.  And I STFU about my own concerns.  

God Bless all of you in harms way, the Ukrainian military, Ukrainian refugees scattered all over Europe, and those in Ukraine trying to go about their daily lives with air raid sirens in the background wondering if today is their unlucky day.  The Ukrainian children taken from their homes/parents and now living in some backward hole in Russia---and think about my own kids in a similar situation.  Those that are no longer with us.

It makes me sad, then angry as Hell. 

God bless all of you going through such Hell and a return to safety and normalcy as soon as possible.  I've got nothing much else to offer but my words and my prayers. 

Peace to all.

(With apologies if this is a little off topic with regards to military strategy,etc. )

 

[Zeleban]

4 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

I woke up this morning to sub zero wind chills, howling wind and a little ice/snow on the ground.  Worried about the heat, do we have food in the fridge for a day or so, are the roads clear enough to go see my girlfriend,  etc.

Then I thought about Ukraine.  And I STFU about my own concerns.  

God Bless all of you in harms way, the Ukrainian military, Ukrainian refugees scattered all over Europe, and those in Ukraine trying to go about their daily lives with air raid sirens in the background wondering if today is their unlucky day.  The Ukrainian children taken from their homes/parents and now living in some backward hole in Russia---and think about my own kids in a similar situation.  Those that are no longer with us.

It makes me sad, then angry as Hell. 

God bless all of you going through such Hell and a return to safety and normalcy as soon as possible.  I've got nothing much else to offer but my words and my prayers. 

Peace to all.

(With apologies if this is a little off topic with regards to military strategy,etc. )

 

Thanks for your concern about us

[paxromana]

4 hours ago, Artkin said:

They probably wouldnt have had the logistics for things like that anyway. They had winter uniforms for the barbarosa campaign but couldnt get them to the front

Well, yes and no. There probably weren't enough Winter Uniforms ... right up front ... but I read somewhere that the General Staff became aware somewhat too late that the German Rear Area and RR Truppen were raiding the trainloads of useless things that they needed far more than the Landsers at the Front ... useless things like, oh, Winter Uniforms and Fuel ... leaving them with plenty of ammo, for which the Rear area/RR truppen had no need.

ISTR that the General Staff had to put Guards on the shipments ... really rather too late in 1941/42.

I understand from something mentioned here (?) or in the news that there is tension between the Russian Front Line soldiers and the FSB ... the latter are taking all the useless stuff, winter clothing, working vehicles, fuel, non-time expired rations and the like while leaving the Army the scraps. And the Soldiers aren't too happy ... but, since the FSB are the MG armed 'blocking troops' there to prevent the soldiers from retreating, well ...

Edited December 23, 2022 by paxromana

[kevinkin]

Those blunts are at it again:

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/russia-admiral-kuznetsov-aircraft-carrier-fire/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

And here is one for the Aflac duck to consider:

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-politician-files-legal-challenge-110946258.html

If this SMO, I mean war, wasn't so serious you could almost chuckle over these two. 

Edited December 23, 2022 by kevinkin

[Harmon Rabb]

5 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

I woke up this morning to sub zero wind chills, howling wind and a little ice/snow on the ground.  Worried about the heat, do we have food in the fridge for a day or so, are the roads clear enough to go see my girlfriend,  etc.

Then I thought about Ukraine.  And I STFU about my own concerns.  

God Bless all of you in harms way, the Ukrainian military, Ukrainian refugees scattered all over Europe, and those in Ukraine trying to go about their daily lives with air raid sirens in the background wondering if today is their unlucky day.  The Ukrainian children taken from their homes/parents and now living in some backward hole in Russia---and think about my own kids in a similar situation.  Those that are no longer with us.

It makes me sad, then angry as Hell. 

God bless all of you going through such Hell and a return to safety and normalcy as soon as possible.  I've got nothing much else to offer but my words and my prayers. 

Peace to all.

(With apologies if this is a little off topic with regards to military strategy,etc. )

 

You said it Billy Ringo!

I want to wish our friends living in Ukraine who contribute to this forum and the brave members of the AFU a Merry Christmas.

Last year around this time I remember I was thinking about corporate holiday bonuses and taking a vacation, this year I feel like none of that even matters.

All I want for Christmas is victory for Ukraine!

 

Edited December 23, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[danfrodo]

16 hours ago, dan/california said:

The world is engaged in an unpleasant experiment to test the cohesion of the current Russian government.

Ah, this clarifies my thinking greatly, DanCA.  Putin is unintentionally running an experiment to see just how far he can push russian society until it breaks (meaning, breaks Putin).  There's been previous experiments but the conditions were very different so they don't tell us as much as one would think.  The number of casualties considered 'acceptable' in WW1 was certainly higher while communication, education, etc were much lower and the economy and people's expectations were vastly different.  As Steve has said, all the conditions for a tipping point are there but we won't know we've reached it until it actually tips. 

And much thanks to Harmon Rabb for the Xmas tree pick and his thoughts.  We had heavy freezing rain here last night so can't leave the house w/o falling, dog can't even do it.  But the electricity is on and it will all be melted by dawn tomorrow.  In Urkraine it's bad weather plus no electricity and it won't all be gone by tomorrow.

Meanwhile, some news from the front in the summary below.  Seems the grinding progress on Svatove-Kremmina front continues to grind forward, slowly. 

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/23/2143459/-Ukraine-update-Russia-sends-all-forces-in-Svatove-to-the-front-lines-as-Ukraine-presses-closer

 

[danfrodo]

15 hours ago, akd said:

Fighting to retake areas on outskirts NE of Bakhmut from last month:

 

Great video AKD, thanks for sharing.  Really shows life on the front lines in cold, wet weather.

[sburke]

Seems Zelensky was able to get under someone's skin

‘Get Rid of the Video!’: Putin Crony Freaks Out in Live TV Flop Over Zelensky Clip (yahoo.com)

Quote

 

On Thursday morning, decorated propagandist Vladimir Solovyov hosted Dimitri Simes, president of the Washington think tank The Center for the National Interest on his show, Full Contact. While Simes was speaking, footage of Zelensky was playing on the split screen. It depicted House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Vice President Kamala Harris accepting and proudly holding up the Ukrainian flag, handed to them by Zelensky.

Solovyov was apparently unnerved by the video of the warm reception extended to Zelensky in the United States.

On the big screen behind him was an image of Zelensky that Russian propagandists wanted to convey: a photoshopped picture of the Ukrainian president shining Biden’s shoes, with the title: “A vassal has arrived.” The mockery clearly clashed with the real-time visuals being shown on another section of the split-screen. While Simes was droning on, Solovyov appeared to be furiously texting on his phone, eventually revealing that he was texting his producers and demanding that they stop replaying the clips of Zelensky before the U.S. Congress.

Apparently, the producers were too slow to cater to the host’s demands—and he finally exploded. Interrupting Simes, he fumed: “Forgive me, Dimitri. Guys, get rid of this video, if you can’t read what is being written to you!”

 

 

[Zeleban]

Russian television is constantly releasing new videos about the hardships of life in the European Union. This time, poor Europeans are forced to eat their pets for Christmas.

Similar brainwashing is happening in North Korea. There, local residents are told that epidemics and wars are raging all over the world, and peace and prosperity reign only in North Korea.

[Astrophel]

25 minutes ago, sburke said:

Seems Zelensky was able to get under someone's skin

‘Get Rid of the Video!’: Putin Crony Freaks Out in Live TV Flop Over Zelensky Clip (yahoo.com)

 

Great link - worth watching the whole thing via Julia.  Somebody in Solovyov's team will be missing their christmas bonus at the very least.  Zelensky could not have been better presented had he paid for an advertising slot!   Later in the video the hope is that Putin's republicans may be chairing a couple of committees next year and getting airtime for Kremlin points of view.  Saddest of all is the reminiscence of Churchill addressing Congress and the statement that Putin deserves to be received as the real Churchill, not Zelensky.  Fat chance.

Zelensky made the point in his speech in USA that russians will only be free when they get the kremlin out of their heads.  By the look of it there are many in russia who would agree - even in Solovyov's team.

[Huba]

Drone recovery UGV.

 

[sburke]

interesting article on the development of drone industry in US.

The drone wranglers: How the most authentic Old West town in the US is delivering the future of flight | ZDNET