Astrophel

The choice of target in Moscow suggests that ideology is at least as important as money. Today I read an article in FT about Opus Dei - worth checking out and if you need a link let me know,

Very informative. Yet another perspective. For sure the Islamists are connected.

We have no evidence that the people being arrested had anything to do with the attack. People like Putin like to round up likely looking suspects quickly to show they are still on top of things. Tomorrow we find out whether they look like Tajiks or Ukrainians. I just read in the Mail, alongside dramatic footage from russia, "RT propaganda chief Margarita Simonyan said the suspects had been stopped 100 kilometres [62 miles] from the border with Ukraine". Really??????

You are right, this one is kinda strange. The reason it is strange is because we understand so very little about russian internal politics. The timing cannot be coincidental - Putin having just been re-elected. As far as I have detected there was no conciliatory gesture to minorities, inviting Hamas to Moscow with friends and family achieved nothing, and the Christian dog fight in Ukraine continues to kill a disproportionate number of russian moslims used as cannon fodder. No wonder ISIL/ISIS or whatever you call them believe in their righteousness at this moment. Perhaps Putin's attempt to drag Ukraine into the narrative is a crude and blunt warning internally that he is prepared to wage his civil war on two fronts. There is too much we do not understand. What happened with the Wagner uprising is still a puzzle for me. What seems clear is that this act of terrorism is not likely to remain an isolated instance. Executing an attack like this so successfully against a country at war and forewarned even is the first shot not the last. Putin has a second front whether he likes it or not.

I wonder how many lessons of this war are applicable to a potential conflict with the west. What we have surely learned is that drone warfare is the future, on land and at sea. I doubt we are learning anything useful from the soviet style artillery duels that are turning the battle lines into a killing field made static by obscene numbers of mines. We are never going to fight this kind of war. Were the West to be fighting this war we would be relying on air superiority and our long range accurate missile systems. We do value our soldiers highly these days because they are highly trained - imho conscripts would be more a danger to our own side than useful. Macron's proposal to add western bodies into this antique warfare was ill-conceived to say the least. I hope the more fanatic among the Nato allies do not succumb to temptation. If we are going to fight this war - and I think we must - we need to return to the idea of compelling air dominance. The political narrative is clear cut - a peace based on recognition of the already accepted international borders.

Pope Francis is 87. Surely there should be a retirement age for people claiming to be world leaders.

Anecdotal input. I have some Ukrainian friends who cross the border infrequently and am assured that the import to EU of home brew vodka is strictly limited. I never inquired whether a bribe might have helped with the very strict Polish customs, but my friends were more concerned to play by the local rules. So I have a smaller quantity than I might have wanted and am still not clear on the reasons why. The vodka is excellent and the border opaque.

Entities who fight wars usually "have stuff" or they cannot afford a war. So perhaps they want "even more stuff", or they equate territory with potency, or they have some kind of religious drive. Or they are genuinely afraid.

Super analysis! I would add that Zaluzhny had plenty of opportunity to take a variety of honourable exits but instead preferred to be fired - at least this is how it seems to me. In democracies generals do what the elected representatives tell them to do, not the other way around. I don't know the man or his successor but in my view Zaluzhny crossed the red line. While I am on, the idea of rotating troops more and giving more front-line exposure seems eminently sensible, but what do I know. The other thing in the West is you get paid by results or you make way gracefully. Zaluzhny did not deliver in 2023 if we are honest and it is time to try something else.

@OBJ I am convinced that Putin has no intention of stopping. At the most he would take a ceasefire to regroup and rebuild, but right now he probably thinks he is winning and will not look for a ceasefire. Any attempt by Ukraine to look for a ceasefire will be rejected - Putin is looking for a surrender, not a ceasefire. Why would Putin stop now when everybody is dancing to his music including the United Nations and the United States Congress? Putin himself reminds me of Macbeth: "I am in blood / Stepped in so far that should I wade no more, / Returning were as tedious as go o'er" He has no way back.

You refer to Ukraine arresting people for corruption. Every country is vulnerable to corruption. What matters is whether the government takes action. UK is struggling with this at the moment and UK is supposed to be setting a lead. Ukraine is taking action and arresting people. Good for them.

Thanks for your inputs. Your judgement is likely correct, more is the pity. Haley has neither the charisma nor the connections to run as an independent or pull the republican party back to its senses. The good news today is that Nato has agreed to buy artillery shells for Ukraine to the tune of $1 Billion. Another gesture perhaps, signalling a direction rather than taking a firm lead. Hopefully the US voters can make a wise choice and soon.

It would be interesting to hear your take on what happens assuming Haley stays in the race after tomorrow's primary in New Hampshire. Haley is well positioned to take the middle ground against two very old men, both of whom look increasing unfit on occasion. Haley looks fit enough to do the job, whichever side you are on. Haley has stated very clearly the case on several occasions for supporting Ukraine and recognises the dangers of Putin winning. She is more hawkish than Biden and that will appeal to many on both sides who think Biden has been guilty of too little too late when it comes to supplying Ukraine. To beat Trump she will have to find the schisms in the republican party and convince her South Carolina voters that she and not Trump has the most chance of beating Biden. Ukraine should be a part of this if she can rally enough votes in the House to help push through some bipartisan measures on the budget and immigration, for example. On her record she seems flexible enough to move her political stance at the appropriate moment. She now has to pull votes from Trump one way or another and build a base with those republicans who despise Trump and his politics and there are still many who do.

The basic tenet of democracy is that the masses ARE that bright! In recent human European history - since the Beaker People 5000 years ago - we have lived with the tyranny of the monarchs. The masses had little to say. There has been progress but it has been cruel, and painful, and inefficient. More recently we discovered diversity. The most successful organisations today enjoy consolidating diverse opinions - sex, ethnicity, achievement. The autocracy paradigm is bankrupt! We are developing ways of working together with the best insights and challengers. The "russian" way is a threat to humanity similar to the way an asteroid destroyed the dinosaurs. The masses ARE that bright. We are learning that russian autocratic ideas. like the asteroid, are a threat to humanity. Survival means learning not only to iive together but learning together. Diversity is the key! Like most wars in the past few thousand years we are in a conflict of values. Do we narrow our focus to a Putinesque prison cell of hetrosexuals, or do we embrace freedoms? I know where I stand, do you?

I think you are wrong on this, at least from my essentially European perspective. In the first winter of the war European citizens demonstrated an uncomplaining resolve to manage the energy blackmail and huge costs emanating from russia and their allies in Opec. Ukrainian women and children were sheltered from russian attack by being given a unique refugee status - millions of ukrainians have been adopted. An unintended side effect is that tens of millions of Europeans have had the opportunity to meet ukrainians at work, around schools and refugee centres with largely positive feelings resulting. I have heard no complaints about donating military equipment to ukraine, or about the economic subsidies being given generously. In the second world war we had a different situation because war had been declared. In those days the majority of citizens felt it to be their duty to fight on behalf of their government decision. Having seen our citizens diligently conform to government orders in the Covid crisis, I rather suspect that the majority today would back any government decision to declare war on russia, or anybody or anything else for that matter deemed to be an existential threat. I was raised with the expectation that I, like my father and grandfathers, might have to fight should war be declared. It is the same sentiment that Putin is trading upon. You are from Canada it seems. Maybe what you say is true for Canada - and I lived in Montreal for a couple of years so I doubt it - but please do not extend your "Canadian" cynicism to western europe. Many of us are well aware of the rights and wrongs of this situation, and the danger of tolerating russian fascism as Hitler was tolerated for too long. We do not want a declaration of war but Putin better not provoke further. Nobody in their right mind would want a war and all the sacrifice that entails. But it is Putin and fellow travellers, not western politicians, who are walking the tightrope.

Dumb questions for you military experts: 1) It appears from my own rumour mill that there is a lot of money washing around to buy msm journalists and influencers. None coming my way so far. Anybody have the same inputs? 2) And now a really stupid question. I had a christmas dinner with a marine who is just back from parachute training in Arizona - because the weather is optimal for training apparently. I thought "why not parachute over the mines"??. I said it was a stupid question but I would love to know the answer?

Nature or nurture? On the DNA level we are all pretty much Homo Sapiens Sapiens, so we are talking mostly nurture. Russian culture today is the culmination of a 1000 plus years of contorted growth, influenced by a nasty climate, oppressive rulers, and shortages as a way of life. I can't imagine anybody here in Netherlands rushing off to war with intent to rape the women and children and loot a refrigerator. Perhaps it is different where you live.

You introduce the word ethnicity which is in itself provocative. For me ethnicity is a cultural phenomenon. To cite the American Heritage Dictionary: "Of, relating to, or characteristic of a group of people sharing a common cultural or national heritage and often sharing a common language or religion". So yes there are other groups influenced by russian ethnicity - some 15-20% of Israelis share this heritage. We are all familiar with Serbian sympathies. Bulgarians are not far removed. At the end of the day we all should take responsibility for our actions. Ethnicity is not an excuse for setting up filtration centres, torture centres, brainwashing children, bombing hospitals, or genocidal intent. To return from your engaging distraction, the russian "ethnicity" over the past few hundred years has regularly engaged in unreasonable domination of neighbours and cruelty. Coincidentally I spoke today with a senior diplomat who spent several years in Moscow - "In russia human lives don't count" - she said. This would seem to be true on current evidence and constitute a huge ethnic divide between them and us. This war is 100% caused by russia - they invaded. Your attempts to share the blame are frankly disgusting. Sorry to talk about ethnicity, but you brought it up.

I disagree. Russians are 100% to blame. Perhaps not consciously because a lot of it is in their nature and driven by their historical perspective. They like to dominate what they believe to be their space and it has been this way for a few hundred years. They are always looking for someone to fight. In my lifetime I do not know of any one serious thinker or politician on the western side who even engaged seriously with the prospect of invading and conquering russia. The policy has been one of containment. Even after the fall of the soviet union nobody seriously suggested taking over in russia, and it was NOT because we were afraid of the nukes. Nato is a DEFENSIVE alliance. There are no protocols for attacking anybody. We would not know how to organise an attack even. So please stop playing the victim card. There is only one victim currently and that victim is Ukraine.

Surprised you can state Taiwan is already supplying volumes of drones to russia. I would like to see your source. For one thing Taiwan is likely to be building its own reserves of weapons at home, and for another they are relying on military support from US and some other western countries who would be not amused if what you say is true. Why do I think Taiwan is a manufacturing force to be reckoned with? Well you do know Foxconn is a Taiwanese company? Taiwan taught China how to do high volume manufacturing. Since 2010 thousands of Taiwanese component companies have been disinvesting on the mainland and lots of production has been brought back to Taiwan. The trend is continuing apace. An additional factor to consider is that Taiwan is a key supplier of all advanced technologies needed and has been innovating around them for two decades or more. Taiwan and Ukraine should buddy up more. There is no excuse not to now China is exposed for selling weapons to russia.

When China plays this game, Taiwan will not be far behind and likely better at it.

Thanks for the link. I will read it a couple more times before the day is finished Russia is splashing the cash for mercenaries and they have cash to spare for the time being. Last time I looked their debt to GDP ratio was very sympathetic for ramping up domestic spending - well prepared, as I said, with several years of preparation.. The war will not be won via financial pressures - at least not short term. Ukraine has to win on the battlefield which looks both difficult and ill advised - the lines are frozen whether we like it or not. The remaining option is to get inside the russian heads. Even in Siberia being dead is less preferable than having a new car? Your point on forcing the russians to spend elsewhere is a good one, despite their reserves. One way would be to foment insurrections. Another way would be to destroy vital infrastructure. A third way would be to attack profit making enterprises. Probably these three would deliver higher dividends than appealing to ukrainian troops to attack russian trenches through the minefields. The ideological battle needs to be fought actively. Hearts and minds! The future looks a lot brighter when russians have the same impulse as happened in USA after Vietnam.

I hope you are right concerning the active engagement of US agencies. I agree about Kissinger - he created a wall of opposition to western policy, unintentionally perhaps, but he was always focussed more on next week than next decade.

I take your point, I think. Starving the russian war machine of money is not something I believe in as a tactic. This war was well prepared financially and russia has deep resources when it comes to commodities that can be traded for hard cash and influence. It might make a difference were the Opec States to increase production but they are intent on raising prices rather than supply. The West should increase the policing of strategic supplies to starve the russian war machine but this is not going to be decisive - russia is not completely incompetent. Surely intelligent people in russia are realising that this war is a disaster? And it is surely becoming painful increasingly, depending where you live and what you do. The intellectual argument needs to be advanced in terms russian people are used to debating - they are not stupid people. The rest of the world is happy they stay on their island as long as they stop attacking others. Make peace and dig your trench and sow your mines - but a few kilometers further east please and you will be left alone for eternity.

On the day of Kissinger's passing I regret the passivity of the current "CIA" establishment. The war in Ukraine needs distractions for the russian enemy, and there are several possibilities. Underlying everything negative is the strength of the "russian" belief in their own righteousness. This belief sustains the continual attacks in Ukraine, despite appalling losses. Even Serbia, far removed from front lines, has not concluded that russian society is bankrupt on all indicators. They keep on keeping on! My belief is that this is first and foremost an idealogical battle. When the russians stop believing in their cause the battle is won. Somehow we are failing to wage this war effectively. Cluster munitions have made a difference and so will F16, but they are not decisive versus a society with a minefield mentality. My feeling at the moment is that the priority is to preserve every Ukrainian life. The future still needs building and we need heroes to be alive and not dead. To win we need to undermine the russian psychology rather than pick our way through their minefields. We have the the technology to reach into the mind of every russian. It is beyond time that we use it