How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

26 minutes ago, Simcoe said:

Tired of this both sides nonsense. The sickness comes from one network, one party. One party is pushing Putin propaganda, one party tried to overthrow the government. It wasn't CNN, it wasn't the Democrats.

Oh FFS, here we go

I never thought I'd miss Kettler.

[Kinophile]

40 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Oh FFS, here we go

I never thought I'd miss Kettler.

Careful what you wish for...

[FancyCat]

The latest bill with Ukraine stuff passed with bipartisan support so regardless of left or right detractors, for now things remain firmly aligned with Ukraine.

Interesting, the variability of Ukraine's warnings. Maybe just a update on prior warnings, maybe muddled messaging. Tho we know Ukraine is capable of concise, consistent messaging over some manner of time. We shall see.

 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Oh FFS, here we go

I never thought I'd miss Kettler.

If you say that three times......

[sburke]

enough of TC, back to Ukraine.  Interesting story of a small circle of folks reporting to AFU from occupied Kherson.

This Gym Owner’s Double Life Helped Wreck Putin’s War Plans (yahoo.com)

[Yet]

10 hours ago, LukeFF said:

Well, since you went there, Steve...

What I am outraged about is that we continue to spend billions upon billions on a foreign war and that our duly elected representatives "agreed" on a 4155 page spending bill in the middle of the night, right before the Christmas recess that no one outside of the few who drafted up the monstrosity are ever going to read. All this while the economy, infrastructure, etc., here at home has ongoing serious problems, to say nothing of the way our own vets continue to be shafted by the utterly idiotic way the VA administration is run.

Yes, but let's get all riled up over what someone said on Fox News! The horror! You know what I do when I see the same sort of nonsense on MSNBC, CNN, the NYT, or WaPo? I laugh and move on. It's not worth the time.

I admire everyone for his/her honest opinion. But imho its too easy to just cast away people with an audience that spread (dangerous) nonsense. These echo-rooms are what got us here in the first place. Its what got Russians believing in Putin, It is what got Putin believing in he could take Ukraine, its what got USA its severe political split, and i hope just hope that most other powerfull people and leaders (esp those with red buttons) have a wide view on reality and dont get caught in such an echo-environment.

[Zeleban]

8 minutes ago, Yet said:

I admire everyone for his/her honest opinion. But imho its too easy to just cast away people with an audience that spread (dangerous) nonsense. These echo-rooms are what got us here in the first place. Its what got Russians believing in Putin, It is what got Putin believing in he could take Ukraine, its what got USA its severe political split, and i hope just hope that most other powerfull people and leaders (esp those with red buttons) have a wide view on reality and dont get caught in such an echo-environment.

It's true. Most of the Russian intelligentsia was forced to flee from the territory of Russia. These are the same people who, before the start of the war, assured that Putin's propaganda is complete nonsense, which only idiots can believe. As it turned out, there are much more idiots in Russia than they thought.

[MSBoxer]

And it looks like I am back to skipping pages of comments at a time. Again. 

[Ts4EVER]

Well, what did Clausewitz say? "War is an extension of politics... stupid, stupid politics."

[The_Capt]

58 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

Well, what did Clausewitz say? "War is an extension of politics... stupid, stupid politics."

[Battlefront.com]

Sigh.

Let's recap.  I post a link to a guy who chose to use his public platform to attack and undermine support for someone who is leading a nation at war against a merciless, Fascist dictatorship that is threat to world stability (generally) and the interests of free people everywhere (specifically).  This isn't some mentally disturbed individual standing on the street corner yelling at people coming out of a subway station, it is someone who draws about 4 million viewers every time he shows his face. 

We post missives and opinions from people with far less reach than this one guy, yet for some reason the mere mention of him, or his network, sets off a predictable chain of events that works against our common cause here.  Why this reaction?  Should we stop posting things said by others in support of Russia?  Should we stop criticizing the "experts" who got this war so wrong before and after?  Should we finally stop being critical of the inconsistent and counter productive elements of the German government?  Should we not be critical of the Biden Admin's refusal to provide ATACMS?  Or should we carry on doing what we've been doing since the start of this thread?

That said, this is becoming a distraction.  Again.  It shouldn't be, but it never-the-less is.  And occasionally it needs to be, lest we forget that there are people within the West working on undermining core interests.  But it is time to move on.

Steve

[poesel]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Should we finally stop being critical of the inconsistent and counter productive elements of the German government?

Please don't. It is the second most interesting topic for me in this thread!

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, poesel said:

Please don't. It is the second most interesting topic for me in this thread!

Duly noted, let me just dust-off that German-basher...  

Edited December 24, 2022 by Huba

[kevinkin]

49 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

our common cause

I didn't get the memo. Do we have a flag to salute as well?

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

No, but he has a much bigger megaphone

Not so sure about that. Back in the day Chuck was a mega-star. More people knew  of his name than of TC. Sure, media has changed with its instantaneous reach. But I think Chuck was far more influential given the name recognition and fewer places to obtain information. Likewise, Walter Cronkite was 100x more influential than anyone on cable news is today. Or twitter or wherever. However, the more information outlets the better. Even if the messenger becomes diluted in all the noise. About entertainers salaries: just follow the money to understand why success in certain professions can be very lucrative in the US.  Brandon Nimmo and TC both make 10 million a year. One is a ballplayer and the other a political entertainer. You can chalk that up to the guy who figured out those platforms are a great place to sell cars and pharmaceuticals.

Edited December 24, 2022 by kevinkin

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I didn't get that memo. Do we have a flag to salute as well?

I thought we were all for learning about this war and having an open and honest discussion about it?  Are you saying that you think that isn't common amongst us and that some are here with other intentions?

14 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Not so sure about that. Back in the day Chuck was a mega-star. More people knew  of his name than of TC. Sure, media has changed with its instantaneous reach. But I think Chuck was far more influential given the name recognition and fewer places to obtain information. Likewise, Walter Cronkite was 100x more influential than anyone on cable news is today. Or twitter or wherever. However, the more information outlets the better. Even if the messenger becomes diluted in all the noise. About entertainers salaries: just follow the money to understand why success in certain professions can be very lucrative in the US.  Brandon Nimmo and TC both make 10 million a year. One is a ballplayer and the other an political entertainer. You can chalk that up to the guy who figured out those platforms are a great place to sell cars and pharmaceuticals.

What's your point?  That we should only post things here by people that have the same reach as Cronkite?  Don't you think that is a little limiting?  Or do you think that we should use relevance to be our guide?  If you believe the latter, then what's the objection to my posting of Carlson's deliberate and degrading attack on Zelensky's historic speech before Congress?

I don't like feeling I have to censor myself because a few people get offended or take it as an opening to get into domestic US politics.  Carlson's diatribe was 100% relevant and consistent with the core of what this thread is about.  Which is there is a war going on and we need to understand it is a global war.  That is the one thing the Russians are correct about.  Carlson is part of a faction of this war and I don't think ignoring him, of the faction he is a part of, is helpful.

Steve

[billbindc]

9 hours ago, kevinkin said:

TC couldn't start a lawn mower. Russian TV pointing to him shows again how desperate their people are for self-vindication and a weird form of hope. Sort of like Americans who watch prime time CNN, MSNBC and Fox. TC is no Charles Lindbergh. At least Chuck had a resume.  

I don't think you should underestimate the influence of Carlson and his fellow travelers. Kevin McCarthy, if he's able to manage it, is going to be a Speaker with something like a 4 or 5 seat margin. Margery Taylor Green, Boebert, Gaetz, etc will all have the  ability to foil him constantly on every bill. He will need their votes and they won't give him those votes unless he gives on certain issues. Which do you think he's going to fold on, Social Security or money for Ukraine? I can tell you where the betting on the Hill is.

[billbindc]

8 hours ago, kevinkin said:

I don't watch much TV now (just sports), but did TC actually "publicly agitated for the violent overthrow of the US government." If so, was it just a bad joke. He is well known for them. Even if he was serious, his lawn mower brigade would never make it out of the garage. No threat to anything but the BMW parked in the driveway. 

That lawn mower brigade was snarling at my mixed race 8 year old back in 2020 on the street in front of my house. 

Sorry to personalize it but I think it's important to that people understand what it was like to keep a baseball bat by the front door because actual fascists were parading around your city for a couple of years.

PS The point not being that my family went through some things but to make it clear that what people saw from a distance as a sudden event was actually a sustained effort for months/years that culminated in that event. And part of that effort was that the local police were effectively paralyzed by the administration in office. That's *not* a clown car. Tucker and his ilk should not be underestimated. 

Edited December 24, 2022 by billbindc

[Huba]

Reportedly ZSU took back Opytne south of Bakhmut.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1.  Before we blame all this on isolationist Deplorable Know Nothings, take a deep whiff of this....

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/12/russia-sitrep-of-sorts.html

This is the Old (nonwoke) Left Berniecrat blog, although they've chucked him too now. The founders keep quoting the same 8 highly erratic people (Ritter, MacGregor, Helmer, MofA, Mercouris, etc.) in rotation, while ruthlessly sanitising anyone who dares challenge Kremlin-origin alternative facts.

Such as:

- the UA is now losing a battalion a day in Bakhmut, and while lavishly equipped out of NATO's now rapidly depleting stocks they are incompetently/cowardly commanded and poorly fed, while medevac is at 1941 levels. Local logistics is a corrupt shambles; their rail net is shut down. The UA can't keep tank battalions operating, still less warplane squadrons. Their sole effective strike arm, HIMARS/arty is all Western-crewed and you know, those perfidious BoJo commandos.....

- Azov, Kraken, et al., are mafiya-run SS skinhead militias who won't fight (unless trapped a la Mariupol). They force middle aged UA conscripts to stay in the line, when they aren't busy enforcing blanket 'OPSEC' on civilians, cleansing out Russian speakers or reselling foreign provided kit in Africa for big $$$.

- Whole regions of Ukraine are depopulating now, as their freezing-in-the-dark people decamp to become (unwelcome) refugees across the energy strapped EU. Their economy (already a patchwork of mafiya fiefdoms) is now ceasing to function, for war or any other purpose. EU cities are filled with Ukrainian child prostitutes. Oh, and huge numbers have fled, or been driven out to mother Russia.

(4th grade schoolyard logic: Well uhh... YOU are a poopyhead times 2!!!!!)

There's a Russian guy who comments, and even he prods now and then at the Putin rahrah echo chamber and quickly realises he is walking on eggshells. No outside views are tolerated: that is all a Vast MSMDNC Conspiracy.

2.  Once you're done there, go do a Ukraine search on pretty much any 'Left' journal or publication outside the Anglosphere (or nations bordering Russia who actually KNOW what they're dealing with).

...They make Tucker look 'fair and balanced'.

Edited December 24, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[cesmonkey]

Details of the aid to be provided to Ukraine in the new budget act passed by Congress:
https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/FY23 BILL HIGHLIGHTS_UKRAINE.pdf

I'll paste in just the military portion below:
 

Quote

MILITARY AND SECURITY ASSISTANCE

• Provides $19.8 billion in authorities and associated funding to arm and equip Ukraine and NATO Allies to counter Russian aggression, rejecting the Administration’s request to throttle down support for the Ukrainian war effort.
• Provides in excess of $6.2 billion for the Department of Defense to sustain the surge of U.S. forces and operations in Europe in response to Russia’s actions.
• Provides $687 million to accelerate domestic munitions production capacity at Army ammunition plants.
• Provides $300 million to support the Ukrainian police and border guards’ efforts to protect civilians, rescue victims of Russia’s persistent attacks against civilian infrastructure and cities, and defend Ukraine’s sovereign territory.
• Includes $126.3 million for the National Nuclear Security Administration for nuclear nonproliferation, counterterrorism and counterproliferation activities in and related to Ukraine.
• Provides $105 million for the clearance of landmines and other explosive remnants of war to protect civilians and troops and allow for Ukrainian citizens to return to areas liberated from Russian control.
• Provides $50 million to address cybersecurity threats emanating from Russia and other malign actors.

Edited December 24, 2022 by cesmonkey

[danfrodo]

deleted, was superfluous to above comments

Edited December 24, 2022 by danfrodo
deleted

[danfrodo]

So it looks like UKR is now counterattacking on the Bakhmut front.  Seems getting all one's soldiers chewed up and expending all your arty ammo on pointless attacks w heavy losses might leave one open to a counter thrust.  Go figure.

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Tucker and his ilk should not be underestimated.

Just put them into perspective. And IMHO they are being overestimated by orders of magnitude. The sky is not falling. And if if were, TC would have zero influence one way or the other.

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Security or money for Ukraine?

Given SS is the third rail of American politics, that trade won't come up. But come to think of it, Gaetz et. al. would defund SS too. So other forms domestic spending would come into play.

 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I thought we were all for learning about this war and having an open and honest discussion about it?  Are you saying that you think that isn't common amongst us and that some are here with other intentions?

OK, got it. Thanks for clarifying  "common cause" in those terms. 

 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

If you believe the latter, then what's the objection to my posting of Carlson's deliberate and degrading attack on Zelensky's historic speech before Congress?

I have no objection to that or anything in this thread. Let's not get all worked up on side issues and those who muddy the water like TC. They will have no effect on ending the war quickly and on the Western terms.  Was the attack on Zelensky relevant - yes. Was it important toward winning or losing the global war - no. If the west can't defeat Russian despite cable news hacks, then we have real problems outside the scope of the thread.  

[LongLeftFlank]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

You are missing the point, LLF.  No one pays attention to these lefties, they are the fringe.  Carlson is the GOP base.  He has the highest rated show on TV news.  Are there crazy righties?  yes.  Crazy lefties?  yes.  But let's not play the false equivalence game.  The crazy on the right is the base.  The crazy on the left is the fringe.  That's a big and important difference.  The GOP frontrunner for 2024 is about to go on a witch hunt against vaccines -- talk about pandering to insanity.  There is nothing comparable to that on the left, except at the fringe.

Having said all that, let me finish w love your posts, keep 'em coming.  You add a lot of excellent content, much appreciated.

No, not missing any point. I merely think your premise is mistaken, and (possibly) skewed by good old fashioned partisanship.  Too much time reading those sinister Liberal Sites, tsk tsk....

Nobody can seriously deny that isolationism is a much bigger faction in the GOP today. The American Conservative reads now like Pat Buchanan essays cribbed by AI.

And there's a logic to it: it gets votes with The Dam Furriners Took Our Jerbs! folks (they DO have some valid gripes on that, btw).

...That said, since Reagan, the GOP has always made one huge exception to their idee fixe of Big Gov Bad / Starve The Beast: that's the uniformed services and MIC.

All those GOP Congressmen live or die based on defence plants and bases in their districts. Hell, that's all the industry left there now (see point above), other than building  trades and agribiz (which also likes globalism and Ukraine btw).

Also, NO US flag officer* backs Russia.  Serving officers (and revolving door retirees in the MIC) still command respect, even among the wingnuts.

Finally, there's America's 51st State in the Mideast which will NOT be cut off, ever. Good luck tackling that one, Tucker.  Didn't work out well for Buchanan.

So whose interests will most (not all, sure) of these Reps *actually* vote when push comes to shove?  You really don't think there's more than enough largesse out there to tip the balance as needed?

* MacGregor retired at only LTC; he has been a Team B gadfly since 73 Easting. There is no Smedley Butler out there.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

1.  Before we blame all this on isolationist Deplorable Know Nothings, take a deep whiff of this....

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/12/russia-sitrep-of-sorts.html

This is the Old (nonwoke) Left Berniecrat blog, although they've chucked him too now. The founders keep quoting the same 8 highly erratic people (Ritter, MacGregor, Helmer, MofA, Mercouris, etc.) in rotation, while ruthlessly sanitising anyone who dares challenge Kremlin-origin alternative facts.

Such as:

- the UA is now losing a battalion a day in Bakhmut, and while lavishly equipped out of NATO's now rapidly depleting stocks they are incompetently/cowardly commanded and poorly fed, while medevac is at 1941 levels. Local logistics is a corrupt shambles; their rail net is shut down. The UA can't keep tank battalions operating, still less warplane squadrons. Their sole effective strike arm, HIMARS/arty is all Western-crewed and you know, those perfidious BoJo commandos.....

- Azov, Kraken, et al., are mafiya-run SS skinhead militias who won't fight (unless trapped a la Mariupol). They force middle aged UA conscripts to stay in the line, when they aren't busy enforcing blanket 'OPSEC' on civilians, cleansing out Russian speakers or reselling foreign provided kit in Africa for big $$$.

- Whole regions of Ukraine are depopulating now, as their freezing-in-the-dark people decamp to become (unwelcome) refugees across the energy strapped EU. Their economy (already a patchwork of mafiya fiefdoms) is now ceasing to function, for war or any other purpose. EU cities are filled with Ukrainian child prostitutes. Oh, and huge numbers have fled, or been driven out to mother Russia.

(4th grade schoolyard logic: Well uhh... YOU are a poopyhead times 2!!!!!)

There's a Russian guy who comments, and even he prods now and then at the Putin rahrah echo chamber and quickly realises he is walking on eggshells. No outside views are tolerated: that is all a Vast MSMDNC Conspiracy.

2.  Once you're done there, go do a Ukraine search on pretty much any 'Left' journal or publication outside the Anglosphere (or nations bordering Russia who actually KNOW what they're dealing with).

...They make Tucker look 'fair and balanced'.

Absolutely. The tendency is reactionary whether on the left or right and against democratic government (i.e. small 'L' liberal ideas of government). John Ganz writes about this a lot in a substack called Unpopular Front where he goes deeply into the Dreyfus Affair, the attempted coup of 1934 in Paris, etc. He speaks from somewhere in the middle/left but is well worth reading for everyone because what we are looking at in modern American politics is not a normal partisan dispute. It's about the basics of what our society considers to be a legitimate way to govern. His take is that we are in a similar moment to post-Dreyfus France. 

https://johnganz.substack.com/p/feb-6-1934jan-6-2021

What does this have to do with Ukraine? Simply that the global rise in this sort of politics has it's spiritual home and inspiration in Putin's mode of government as much as the Bund looked to Berlin. This is part of and the point of the war.