Astrophel

The choice of target in Moscow suggests that ideology is at least as important as money. Today I read an article in FT about Opus Dei - worth checking out and if you need a link let me know,

Very informative. Yet another perspective. For sure the Islamists are connected.

We have no evidence that the people being arrested had anything to do with the attack. People like Putin like to round up likely looking suspects quickly to show they are still on top of things. Tomorrow we find out whether they look like Tajiks or Ukrainians. I just read in the Mail, alongside dramatic footage from russia, "RT propaganda chief Margarita Simonyan said the suspects had been stopped 100 kilometres [62 miles] from the border with Ukraine". Really??????

You are right, this one is kinda strange. The reason it is strange is because we understand so very little about russian internal politics. The timing cannot be coincidental - Putin having just been re-elected. As far as I have detected there was no conciliatory gesture to minorities, inviting Hamas to Moscow with friends and family achieved nothing, and the Christian dog fight in Ukraine continues to kill a disproportionate number of russian moslims used as cannon fodder. No wonder ISIL/ISIS or whatever you call them believe in their righteousness at this moment. Perhaps Putin's attempt to drag Ukraine into the narrative is a crude and blunt warning internally that he is prepared to wage his civil war on two fronts. There is too much we do not understand. What happened with the Wagner uprising is still a puzzle for me. What seems clear is that this act of terrorism is not likely to remain an isolated instance. Executing an attack like this so successfully against a country at war and forewarned even is the first shot not the last. Putin has a second front whether he likes it or not.

I wonder how many lessons of this war are applicable to a potential conflict with the west. What we have surely learned is that drone warfare is the future, on land and at sea. I doubt we are learning anything useful from the soviet style artillery duels that are turning the battle lines into a killing field made static by obscene numbers of mines. We are never going to fight this kind of war. Were the West to be fighting this war we would be relying on air superiority and our long range accurate missile systems. We do value our soldiers highly these days because they are highly trained - imho conscripts would be more a danger to our own side than useful. Macron's proposal to add western bodies into this antique warfare was ill-conceived to say the least. I hope the more fanatic among the Nato allies do not succumb to temptation. If we are going to fight this war - and I think we must - we need to return to the idea of compelling air dominance. The political narrative is clear cut - a peace based on recognition of the already accepted international borders.

Pope Francis is 87. Surely there should be a retirement age for people claiming to be world leaders.

Anecdotal input. I have some Ukrainian friends who cross the border infrequently and am assured that the import to EU of home brew vodka is strictly limited. I never inquired whether a bribe might have helped with the very strict Polish customs, but my friends were more concerned to play by the local rules. So I have a smaller quantity than I might have wanted and am still not clear on the reasons why. The vodka is excellent and the border opaque.

Entities who fight wars usually "have stuff" or they cannot afford a war. So perhaps they want "even more stuff", or they equate territory with potency, or they have some kind of religious drive. Or they are genuinely afraid.

Super analysis! I would add that Zaluzhny had plenty of opportunity to take a variety of honourable exits but instead preferred to be fired - at least this is how it seems to me. In democracies generals do what the elected representatives tell them to do, not the other way around. I don't know the man or his successor but in my view Zaluzhny crossed the red line. While I am on, the idea of rotating troops more and giving more front-line exposure seems eminently sensible, but what do I know. The other thing in the West is you get paid by results or you make way gracefully. Zaluzhny did not deliver in 2023 if we are honest and it is time to try something else.

@OBJ I am convinced that Putin has no intention of stopping. At the most he would take a ceasefire to regroup and rebuild, but right now he probably thinks he is winning and will not look for a ceasefire. Any attempt by Ukraine to look for a ceasefire will be rejected - Putin is looking for a surrender, not a ceasefire. Why would Putin stop now when everybody is dancing to his music including the United Nations and the United States Congress? Putin himself reminds me of Macbeth: "I am in blood / Stepped in so far that should I wade no more, / Returning were as tedious as go o'er" He has no way back.

You refer to Ukraine arresting people for corruption. Every country is vulnerable to corruption. What matters is whether the government takes action. UK is struggling with this at the moment and UK is supposed to be setting a lead. Ukraine is taking action and arresting people. Good for them.

Thanks for your inputs. Your judgement is likely correct, more is the pity. Haley has neither the charisma nor the connections to run as an independent or pull the republican party back to its senses. The good news today is that Nato has agreed to buy artillery shells for Ukraine to the tune of $1 Billion. Another gesture perhaps, signalling a direction rather than taking a firm lead. Hopefully the US voters can make a wise choice and soon.

It would be interesting to hear your take on what happens assuming Haley stays in the race after tomorrow's primary in New Hampshire. Haley is well positioned to take the middle ground against two very old men, both of whom look increasing unfit on occasion. Haley looks fit enough to do the job, whichever side you are on. Haley has stated very clearly the case on several occasions for supporting Ukraine and recognises the dangers of Putin winning. She is more hawkish than Biden and that will appeal to many on both sides who think Biden has been guilty of too little too late when it comes to supplying Ukraine. To beat Trump she will have to find the schisms in the republican party and convince her South Carolina voters that she and not Trump has the most chance of beating Biden. Ukraine should be a part of this if she can rally enough votes in the House to help push through some bipartisan measures on the budget and immigration, for example. On her record she seems flexible enough to move her political stance at the appropriate moment. She now has to pull votes from Trump one way or another and build a base with those republicans who despise Trump and his politics and there are still many who do.

The basic tenet of democracy is that the masses ARE that bright! In recent human European history - since the Beaker People 5000 years ago - we have lived with the tyranny of the monarchs. The masses had little to say. There has been progress but it has been cruel, and painful, and inefficient. More recently we discovered diversity. The most successful organisations today enjoy consolidating diverse opinions - sex, ethnicity, achievement. The autocracy paradigm is bankrupt! We are developing ways of working together with the best insights and challengers. The "russian" way is a threat to humanity similar to the way an asteroid destroyed the dinosaurs. The masses ARE that bright. We are learning that russian autocratic ideas. like the asteroid, are a threat to humanity. Survival means learning not only to iive together but learning together. Diversity is the key! Like most wars in the past few thousand years we are in a conflict of values. Do we narrow our focus to a Putinesque prison cell of hetrosexuals, or do we embrace freedoms? I know where I stand, do you?

I think you are wrong on this, at least from my essentially European perspective. In the first winter of the war European citizens demonstrated an uncomplaining resolve to manage the energy blackmail and huge costs emanating from russia and their allies in Opec. Ukrainian women and children were sheltered from russian attack by being given a unique refugee status - millions of ukrainians have been adopted. An unintended side effect is that tens of millions of Europeans have had the opportunity to meet ukrainians at work, around schools and refugee centres with largely positive feelings resulting. I have heard no complaints about donating military equipment to ukraine, or about the economic subsidies being given generously. In the second world war we had a different situation because war had been declared. In those days the majority of citizens felt it to be their duty to fight on behalf of their government decision. Having seen our citizens diligently conform to government orders in the Covid crisis, I rather suspect that the majority today would back any government decision to declare war on russia, or anybody or anything else for that matter deemed to be an existential threat. I was raised with the expectation that I, like my father and grandfathers, might have to fight should war be declared. It is the same sentiment that Putin is trading upon. You are from Canada it seems. Maybe what you say is true for Canada - and I lived in Montreal for a couple of years so I doubt it - but please do not extend your "Canadian" cynicism to western europe. Many of us are well aware of the rights and wrongs of this situation, and the danger of tolerating russian fascism as Hitler was tolerated for too long. We do not want a declaration of war but Putin better not provoke further. Nobody in their right mind would want a war and all the sacrifice that entails. But it is Putin and fellow travellers, not western politicians, who are walking the tightrope.