How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Pete Wenman]

When the Cold War (the original one ) was all the rage autobahn bridges and the like in West Germany were designed and built with chambers within them to assist with their demolition if required - Miesle Shafts.

These chambers could then be filled with special charges in time of war and allowed good demolition of the otherwise very tough reinforced concrete structures. 

Is it plausible this bridge might have been constructed with something similar. Locations where charges placed would have greater effect than otherwise. Could this have become known to UKA and they exploited a weakness in some way ?

P

Edited October 8, 2022 by Pete Wenman

[kevinkin]

The thing about a truck bomb is it is more complicated to deliver. It can carry a massive charge and be detonated precisely. But you have to assemble it and get it through a checkpoint. Then who it driving the truck? A suicide bomber, robotic system or an unwitting person with it detonated via special forces? I don't think a timer would be reliable is enough to risk an otherwise well planned mission on. BTW would the high angle of the bridge be a weak section? 

[rocketman]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

My leading theory... a single Hrim-2 strike.  Here are my reasons:

1. Of all the possibilities a missile strike is the one that best fits Occam's Razor test.  A single missile strike is the simplest explanation, therefore the most likely.
2. It is the most assured of success, least likely to have failed.  Not just in having a good effect but having ANY effect at all. 
3. Russia wasn't able to do anything against the 4 missiles that struck Saki, including attempted interception.  Therefore, the lack of response ahead of the strike is consistent with the previous known strikes.  None of Russia's other precautions, such as bomb detection and water patrols, are relevant.
4. The amount of explosive power of a Hrim-2 is sufficient to explain all damage.  Not only does it have enough force to cause a catastrophic effect on the bridge itself, it has fragmentation effects built into it.  This is the easiest way to explain the fact that the explosion is below the train by quite a bit and yet it hit the train in several places.  We've seen collateral damage like that in Saki.
5. The CEP of the Hrim-2 is not sufficient to be assured of hitting a specific span of bridge, either rail or road.  However, if aimed at the center point of the bridge width, they would be nearly assured of hitting something.  Any significant damage to any part of the bridge would be a success, so this is consistent with Ukraine wanting a sure bet.  It also explains why the road bridge was hit instead of the rail portion, which is what one would think they'd prefer to destroy.
6. Coordinating the strike with the fuel train would be fairly straight forward and well within Ukraine's known ISR capabilities.
7. There are plenty of trucks going across the bridge and so the chances of one kinda being close enough to the impact is fairly high.  Ukraine, of course, wouldn't have cared about there being some apparent cause and effect with a truck.
8. It is probable that Ukraine could have built a single Hrim-2, but maybe not more.  Using one would likely be enough to cause damage, so timing it with Putin's birthday and what's going on at the front is pretty straight forward.
9. This is the sort of target that Ukraine would expend a Hrim-2 on.  In fact, Ukraine hinted at this exact thing after they struck Saki with Hrim-2.
10. Ukraine is taking responsibility for it but, like Saki, is hinting that it was something other than a Hrim-2 attack.  In this case SBU operation.

There you go.  My case for this being a Hrim-2 attack.

As far as I can see my theory fits all known information.  So far I don't see anything that contradicts it.  Occam's Razor is favoring my theory far more than any of the others.

Steve

Re #6: wouldn’t it be hard to exactly time the flight of the missile to hit right next to a moving train?

[Letter from Prague]

Partially usable already:

 

[billbindc]

Interesting day in Moscow. Looks like the security services are fanning out arresting military figures. It’s unclear still what exactly is happening but as someone smart pointed out, it’s what Putin would do if he was going to take as step that would be unpopular with the military in general. That, of course, could be escalation or deescalation. We’ll soon see.

[Ultradave]

8 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Missile?

 

Nice quality. Looking at the exact moment and just after the explosion it *appears* to be coming from just under and to the right of the bridge, and not a truck. In fact it looks like it happened in between the two trucks, and not coming from one of them. Also, that's a LOT of explosive, but it's a strong bridge so you'd need quite a bit to drop a span. Makes it look like maybe the bridge pier or more than one, had been demo'd. Just my take. I could easily be way off 

Dave

[edit1] After seeing more pics and videos now I'm even less sure. I still think it happened between those 2 trucks, and given the info about checking each truck for explosives, hard to see how this could have happened. It does look like the span in the water was blown OFF it's pier supports by something. 

[edit2] To what Steve said about 500kg warheads - I've watched 1000lb dumb bombs hit and they make a VERY impressive bang - something you don't want to be anywhere close to, so that explosion *could* be consistent with a 500kg warhead, given the light saturation effects. Hard to tell. It would be great to see a video from far back like the ones showing the burning train from a distance, but right at the moment of impact - better scale and also might show where the root of the explosion was.

Note that I am not a combat engineer, but a  field artilleryman. I blew stuff up, but differently. And got mad at our engineers for blowing holes in dirt roads we were using and blowing trees across them. Those guys love their C4 and such.

Edited October 8, 2022 by Ultradave

[Letter from Prague]

I am somewhat not sure about the train. We see the burning fuel cars stopped next to the broken bridge. Were they parked there? If it was the explosion that set them on fire, wouldn't they continue quote a distance due to inertia?

[DesertFox]

13 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I am somewhat not sure about the train. We see the burning fuel cars stopped next to the broken bridge. Were they parked there? If it was the explosion that set them on fire, wouldn't they continue quote a distance due to inertia?

They were parked there. No way they were ignited in the explosion and stopp on the spot.

Oh, forgot the important part. There are two spans down of the bridge (about 50-100m apart). Quite a puzzle how one explosion can cause that.

Edited October 8, 2022 by DesertFox

[LongLeftFlank]

Chuck Pfarrer pushing a SpecOps theory. Surprise.

I don't share Steve's missile theory but I agree with him that a blast from below (abutments) would (a) show more damage to the piers (b) show more damage to the other road bridge but little to none to the rail bridge above.

Yes, while most tiny bits of truck would be underwater now, I agree with some observers that you'd be finding at least some bits of it on the undestroyed roadways. That may still happen of course.

Edited October 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Zeleban]

Another problem with the truck version is that the blast always takes the path of least resistance. If you blow up a truck with explosives on a bridge, most of the energy from the explosion will simply go up and the smallest part of the blast wave will affect the surface of the bridge.

[Battlefront.com]

27 minutes ago, poesel said:

If I had one (1) missile to spend on the Kerch bridge, I would have aimed at the part with the longest bridge span (the 'bridgy' part of the bridge) not at an ordinary part.
The longest span is more susceptible to damage and more difficult to repair.

That would be my one argument against the missile theory - it would have landed somewhere else.

This is what I meant about not everything fitting together perfectly with the knowledge we have.  For sure ANY strike would have been better to hit the wide spans, therefore your question is valid for any form of deliberate attack.

The likely explanation is that we're missing a piece of information that would make us go "ahhhh... well, that makes sense" if we knew it.

My guess is that the Ukrainian engineers determined that the most likely spot to damage was the area struck.  So they went with that.

Another one is that notice that the targeting geeks determined that this was an easier place to ensure a solid hit that could damage multiple sections.

Whatever it is, there has to be some reason that this section was targeted no matter what was used to do the strike.  We just don't know what that reason is.

Steve

[FancyCat]

So we have a repair train on site and traffic flowing on the remaining span. While I won't doubt the Russian engineering experts, you must be brave to drive right now mere hours after the explosion.

A shame, was hoping the bridge would be down for longer. Tho it would be ironic if it went down again due to Russian disregard for safety again.

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, rocketman said:

Re #6: wouldn’t it be hard to exactly time the flight of the missile to hit right next to a moving train?

Presumes the train was moving, but I think it is likely it was.  Stopping a train on a bridge like that would be very inadvisable and also not necessary for any reason I can think of.

I think we can be assured that Ukraine planned this way in advance.  What they almost definitely did is plotted numerous target points and calculated flight times for each one.  Math geeks would have figured out the average speed of a train and average length.  As soon as the train was spotted going over they could select one of the preregistered points to match the variables and send it on its way.

I suck at math and programming, but even I could make a pretty good calculator to determine the optimal time to launch a missile at specific point.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

So we have a repair train on site and traffic flowing on the remaining span. While I won't doubt the Russian engineering experts, you must be brave to drive right now mere hours after the explosion.

A shame, was hoping the bridge would be down for longer. Tho it would be ironic if it went down again due to Russian disregard for safety again.

I'm not surprised.  In our discussions about this particular bridge it was pointed out how difficult it would be to drop all of it at once.  Multiple hits would be needed and even then not assured.

This also fits in with my Hrim-2 theory.  I bet they only had one and decided one strike now was better than 2 strikes later.  The impact on Russian supplies will be immediate and significant.  The effect on morale also instant and well timed with all the other bad news from the front.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

33 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Interesting day in Moscow. Looks like the security services are fanning out arresting military figures. It’s unclear still what exactly is happening but as someone smart pointed out, it’s what Putin would do if he was going to take as step that would be unpopular with the military in general. That, of course, could be escalation or deescalation. We’ll soon see.

Hmm.  This is to follow very closely.  This is likely more important than the bridge.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

22 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Another problem with the truck version is that the blast always takes the path of least resistance. If you blow up a truck with explosives on a bridge, most of the energy from the explosion will simply go up and the smallest part of the blast wave will affect the surface of the bridge.

Yes, exactly.  Contrast that with a shaped munition coming from above faster than the speed of sound.  We know that missiles with lots of HE direct a LOT of force downward, creating craters 10m deep in some cases.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Chuck Pfarrer pushing a SpecOps theory. Surprise.

I don't share Steve's missile theory but I agree with him that a blast from below (abutments) would (a) show more damage to the piers (b) show more damage to the other road bridge but little to none to the rail bridge above.

Yes, while most tiny bits of truck would be underwater now, I agree with some observers that you'd be finding at least some bits of it on the undestroyed roadways. That may still happen of course.

Another example of flawed analysis.  Focusing too much on the visual evidence instead of the broader picture.  This is the same problem that military experts made prior to the war... focusing on counting how many guns the Russians have instead of details like logistics, morale, terrain, weather, etc.

Steve

[MikeyD]

What's the flight distance between the bridge and any likely launch point for Hrim-2, perhaps 500km? I doubt Ukraine would be so bold as to drive the missile right up to the Kherson front to fire it. The bridge may be beyond Hrim-2's range.

[danfrodo]

wow, this is a happy morning!  Another super embarrassing disaster for His Geniusness. 

For me, the 'how' of the event is much less important than how this changes the war.  It causes massive political upheaval for RU, as blame gets thrown around.  It severely cuts supply via Crimea, and thus supply overall.  Ferries can't make up the difference and one road lane can't either.  Plus every single truck & car on that road lane would require inspection.  but if it's an ammo or fuel truck it's already a rolling bomb, just needs a little bomb to set it off.  So even more supply constriction for inspections. 

Meanwhile, the only other major line to the west, via Melitopol,  is in Himars range and was also hit last night.  This is lovely. 

And it's getting cold and RU is needed lots of artillery shells at the front and those are no longer coming.  Dang, happy day. 

[Zeleban]

Meanwhile, attacks on warehouses and railway stations continue. Apparently the AFU is preparing for a large-scale offensive. This is the Karan railway station near Mariupol

[kevinkin]

Talk about burning your bridges if true:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ukraine-presidency-says-russia-had-hand-in-crimea-bridge-blast-01665243007

"It is worth noting that the truck that detonated, according to all indications, entered the bridge from the Russian side. So the answers should be sought in Russia," Kyiv's presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak said in comments released by the presidency.

[Bulletpoint]

My naive guess would be that it was a truck bomb with a remote control trigger and a driver who was not aware what was in his cargo. Then the bomb was triggered at the right point by a wireless signal sent by someone either at the end of the bridge or in a small vessel next to the bridge.

[Holien]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Interesting day in Moscow. Looks like the security services are fanning out arresting military figures. It’s unclear still what exactly is happening but as someone smart pointed out, it’s what Putin would do if he was going to take as step that would be unpopular with the military in general. That, of course, could be escalation or deescalation. We’ll soon see.

Steve beat me too it, this is more interesting, any sources on who has been nabbed?

The Bridge of course was great to see this morning but this snippet from Bill has my hairs up....

[Beleg85]

1 minute ago, Holien said:

Steve beat me too it, this is more interesting, any sources on who has been nabbed?

The Bridge of course was great to see this morning but this snippet from Bill has my hairs up....

As of now only informations are Ukrainian sources. Traffic in Moskow seems normal, no special movements of troops. Seems like fake news for now.

[akd]

Better look at the road surface damage.  Note that the guardrails on the intact roadway are either bent inward directly opposite the span that was cut in the center, or blown outward off the opposite side. The other two spans seem to have collapsed from blast or from the cut span pulling on the whole structure as it collapsed, breaking at the span joints on the bridge supports.  Sure seems like a very large blast on the road surface.

 

Edited October 8, 2022 by akd