How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

8 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

You can see it few seconds after the explosion. No idea how long a common bridge segment takes to fall down, if it does immediately or if it thinks about it first.

Looks like it went down fast in the initial explosion - there's not a second burst of water from a later splash.

[FancyCat]

Decent point, if they could have gotten explosives into a truck and a remote detonator, why not try and get the same onto the rail cars? The rail bridge is the primary objective to knock down, not the road.

 

[RockinHarry]

52 minutes ago, kraze said:

Not the bridge. He would've exploded a few apartment blocks in Moscow, he has a track record.

Bridge is a symbol. Exploding a symbol of your power on your own bday? Nah.

Besides our secretary of security council kind of said "we did it" in his tweet.

You´re most likely right. Ah... and I forgot...Happy Birthday Vlad! And then congrats to the sender of this special birthday present as well. Nice choice!

[LongLeftFlank]

11 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Decent point, if they could have gotten explosives into a truck and a remote detonator, why not try and get the same onto the rail cars? The rail bridge is the primary objective to knock down, not the road.

 

I'm sure theories will be percolating for some pages, but I'd love to see some of those unexploded tank cars set back merrily alight again. Any antiship missiles handy?

Flood the zone, a la Moskva.

One if by land, and two if by sea....

[chrisl]

13 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Decent point, if they could have gotten explosives into a truck and a remote detonator, why not try and get the same onto the rail cars? The rail bridge is the primary objective to knock down, not the road.

 

How do we know they didn't/haven't been trying?

A truckload of legitimate Russian explosives may have just been a target of opportunity and they took advantage when they could.

There may be someone Ukrainian guys sitting around watching the rail yards waiting for a chance to get a bomb onto a train, too.

[chrisl]

There should be extra likes available on days when the major bridges fall.

[RockinHarry]

36 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Lol, it's "hypersonic crap" all right!

We now return you to you Mutha Beautiful Bridge thread....

please BFC don´t put this one in any maybe planned BS DLC. With the jet noise it´ll kill all immersion. (or adding to it? lol )

[Kraft]

10 hours ago, sburke said:

man this is tangent ville thread.  C'mon AFU, we need more info or next we'll start talking about whether americans should wear knit caps indoors for those places with cold winters to save on heat.....

Seems like you got your wish, I'd have been surprised if Putins special day would go without a special present in his special operation

[Taranis]

Beautiful

Note the lone (fire?)truck.

Edited October 8, 2022 by Taranis

[BletchleyGeek]

52 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

This the the first frame that isn't normal. The flash starts at the bottom of the frame.

In another video, you can see something moving under the bridge

These both come from this thread that was linked to before (https://twitter.com/INTobservers/status/1578633947109810176). You can see the moving boat in the first video.

 

Yep, there is something disturbing the water under the bridge. Could well be an underwater drone at "periscope" depth to keep a satellite link with the base station. But I haven't heard of anything with this explosive power - that was one heck of a explosion and there was something else in whatever was the payload that killed the train as well. 

Wild *** guess:  UKR must have a skunkworks outfit that you would very much not want to lock up even in a garden shed (like you wouldn't lock up the A team in a shed either) and can customize existing hardware to come up with "one trick ponies" for very specific missions.

[Letter from Prague]

I'm pretty sure the flash starts at the bottom of the frame because the camera has sensor rolling shutter going top to bottom and the blast happened in the middle of a scan.

Such cameras don't take all pixels at a single instant but there's a bit of lag as it reads data off the sensor. This causes various artifacts.

See here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolling_shutter

[Probus]

If it was a truck bomb, why would a truck loaded with explosives raise a flag?  There's a war on! 

The video shows a lot of burning debris flying around, very indicative of an ammo explosion.  Maybe even thermite? Just armchairing it.

Edited October 8, 2022 by Probus

[LongLeftFlank]

39 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Yep, there is something disturbing the water under the bridge. Could well be an underwater drone at "periscope" depth to keep a satellite link with the base station. But I haven't heard of anything with this explosive power - that was one heck of a explosion and there was something else in whatever was the payload that killed the train as well. 

Wild *** guess:  UKR must have a skunkworks outfit that you would very much not want to lock up even in a garden shed (like you wouldn't lock up the A team in a shed either) and can customize existing hardware to come up with "one trick ponies" for very specific missions.

... nice! with a Ouija board channeling Barnes Wallis, Isaac Doolittle and Archimedes.

For the record, I am kind of with this guy: the VBIED theory is the *least* problematic of all the theories.

And btw, if I was the Russians I'd be auguring drain holes in all those tanker cars right now, damn the environmental consequences.

Edited October 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Beleg85]

Girkin on his Telegram is already openly mocking Putin.

Nice.

And Ukrainians are too:

 

Edited October 8, 2022 by Beleg85

[Letter from Prague]

I'm noticing the broken span looks like a ramp going to the sea.

Is this the offramp Ukraine was supposed to give Putin? 

[LongLeftFlank]

34 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

glitch in the Matrix....

 

That's it, I have the answer:  sinister Ukronazi NATO capitalist puppetmasters haz better fish, and make bribe perfidious military dolphins!

Так долго и спасибо за все рыбы!

 

Edited October 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Zeleban]

 

[Beleg85]

Somebody will have a difficult talk with their superiors...

And State media are calming the population:

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Big, if true. But if this statement is meant to support the Nat notion that Big Bear has been fighting with 'one fist only' to date, it is quite wrongheaded.

What it indicates is that RA could only sustain 60k troops in the field, even before its losses began mounting, and UA began landing heavy punches on its LOCs.

Also, 'tank riders' allowed on all AFVs in the CM modern warfare games, s.v.p.

 

Edited October 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[RockinHarry]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

Beautiful

Note the lone (fire?)truck.

Hm... think the (stealth) speed boat thing loaded with bits of thermite might be more plausible than truck bomb. I see 4 burning railcars. Would a "normal" explosion and shrapnel start this?

Bits of reminds me of this:

Maybe it´s Elon´s special gift for Vlad not wanted taking serious his great peace plan.

Edited October 8, 2022 by RockinHarry

[BletchleyGeek]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

That's it, I have the answer:  sinister Ukronazi NATO capitalist puppetmasters haz better fish, and make bribe perfidious military dolphins!

Так долго и спасибо за все рыбы!

 

I was reading the bit about the dolphins, poor bastards. I doubt the RA treats any better their dolphins than their replacements...

Jokes aside, like with the attack on the Saki airfield, I think there is a very unconventional Ukrainian "special operations" bureau, formed by very talented individuals. Whether they are rocket scientists, roboticists, elite commandos or just simply, wizards, I have no idea 

[LongLeftFlank]

So a lot of folks here and on tha Twitter are laser focused on interpreting that shower of flaming debris blowing onto the RR bridge in the seconds after the big bang, and using it to support some fairly exotic theories.

It's wind, guys!  A strong predawn shore breeze blowing south through the Kerch straits took the cloud of white hot flaming debris right across into the train where some of it lodged on the greasy tanks and caught alight. (Take a look at the daylight photos with flames whipping under the RR span).

And look at the ferocious ocean current in the daylight photos. No wonder an additional weakened span came down. 

Also, there's a huge burn patch on the adjacent road section. 

Don't have the EOD chops to rule thermite but maybe it was selected as likely to take more of the highway section down?

The train caught afire in multiple (4-5) places but (sadly) those fires didn't spread much. This all leads me to conclude that damage to the train and RR bridge was hoped for, but that it wasn't really the primary target.

Otherwise they would have followed up with missile strikes, etc., while the Russians were still reeling.

[yes, parody videos are out already. And memes]

 

Edited October 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[RockinHarry]

45 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

So a lot of folks here and on tha Twitter are laser focused on interpreting that shower of flaming debris blowing onto the RR bridge in the seconds after the big bang, and using it to support some fairly exotic theories.

It's wind, guys!  A strong predawn shore breeze blowing south through the Kerch straits took the cloud of white hot flaming debris right across into the train where some of it lodged on the greasy tanks and caught alight. (Take a look at the daylight photos with flames whipping under the RR span).

And look at the ferocious ocean current in the daylight photos. No wonder an additional weakened span came down. 

Also, there's a huge burn patch on the adjacent road section. 

Don't have the EOD chops to rule thermite but maybe it was selected as likely to take more of the highway section down?

The train caught afire in multiple (4-5) places but (sadly) those fires didn't spread much. This all leads me to conclude that damage to the train and RR bridge was hoped for, but that it wasn't really the primary target.

Otherwise they would have followed up with missile strikes, etc., while the Russians were still reeling.

[yes, parody videos are out already. And memes]

 

Yep, that sounds (more) plausible as well. I´m noob at explosives or construction, but an idea would come to mind. An autonomous stealth (low profile, low noise and IR signature) boat serving as sort of a "bridge dropper". Maybe outfitted with multi stage explosives like upward pointing shaped charge (or comparable) combined with normal explosive charge and a "thermite mortar"? If properly synchronized I´d guess something like that could be made to work. Not by russia off course.

[Haiduk]

Some locals in Kerch claimed they heard loud whistle before moment of explosion, thought this can be a case "lying like an eyewitness"

Meanwhile Russians increase pressure on Donbas front:

 

Today front just furious, canonade of heavy arty is not stopping. Donetsk dirction is hardest now, many rashists were sent here 

[LongLeftFlank]

23 minutes ago, RockinHarry said:

Yep, that sounds (more) plausible as well. I´m noob at explosives or construction, but an idea would come to mind. An autonomous stealth (low profile, low noise and IR signature) boat serving as sort of a "bridge dropper". Maybe outfitted with multi stage explosives like upward pointing shaped charge (or comparable) combined with normal explosive charge and a "thermite mortar"? If properly synchronized I´d guess something like that could be made to work. Not by russia off course.

Yeah, at this point I feel like the burden is on the 'boat' or 'missile' advocates to show evidence for their implements of destruction, not just point out holes in the truck bomb theory.

Look, other than being a WW2/milhist geek since age 7, I know even less than you do about demolitions, but it seems like if you can SOMEHOW bring charges on a boat, your target is the bridge pier, not the bridge section (gravity takes care of that bit). 

And you don't want a thermite 'blowtorch', you want something with maximum, preferably confined, blast that shatters the reinforced cement into a gazillion fragments.  HE grogs, please chime in.

....And no matter what kind of charge you use, you get a giant fountain of water in addition to the cloud of debris, cuz, well,  half your blast goes DOWN, barring a shaped charge. And I never heard of those used in structural demolition work, but then I've led a sheltered life.  And then you kind of well, expect to see half of a jagged and shattered piling standing there, with skeletal rebar sticking out the top.  Anyone got photos of that?

...At dawn, you also expect to see a bunch of soaking wet rail cars and adjacent bridge sections, covered with rubble or dust, not twisted and charred black or burning merrily like Guy Fawkes night.

Edited October 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank