How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

37 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Retaking Volnovakha, which was a 2014 UA redoubt that fell back in March would seem ideal, but I don't know how strongly the Russians have refortified it since. They could be expected to put up quite a fight though, knowing that it shields their last lifeline.

 

Good thread here about the prospects for an attack into the 'land bridge', key terrain, etc.

...

 

Edited October 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Zeleban]

moment of explosion

Edited October 8, 2022 by Zeleban

[Calamine Waffles]

 

Edited October 8, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Jace11]

https://t.me/SolovievLive/132477

Edited October 8, 2022 by Jace11

[LongLeftFlank]

Martyrdom operation or self-driving VBIED?

Maybe Elon is on the side of the angels after all, in his own twisted way (lol)?

Burn baby, burn.....

 

 

Edited October 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Calamine Waffles]

Appears to have been a truck bomb.
 

 

Edited October 8, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[chrisl]

1 minute ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Appears to have been a truck bomb.
 

 

Sure does.

Looks like it was in the middle of the one span that's farther from us in the pictures that have the tracks on the right, and the near span looks intact because it is, and just got pulled off the pier.  In the side views the span the truck was on is probably the one that's going into the water more steeply because it got pushed down in the middle.

So was the train dumb luck or somehow planned?  And suicide bomb or planted?

[Calamine Waffles]

Edited October 8, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[FancyCat]

There is a boat....but unsure how big it was.

 

[Zeleban]

Hypotheses about the causes of the explosion vary.

[kraze]

10 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Martyrdom operation or self-driving VBIED?

Maybe Elon is on the side of the angels after all, in his own twisted way (lol)?

Let's play guessing game: I'd say the likely way to do it was knowing the supply train schedule (easy enough by just watching the bridge daily) and exploiting that to fullest by hiring some unaware russian truck driver to deliver a ton of something in cardboard boxes (e.g. "washing machines") by driving out strictly at 7 AM to catch the train. And hitting the button at the right time.

Now that would've been pretty "uncivilized" by western standards and I guess it means that Nobel peace prize should be taken away so only belarussians and russians share it.

[FancyCat]

If it was a truck bomb....

 

[chrisl]

4 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

If it was a truck bomb....

 

So Russia hires inspectors trained by the TSA?

[chuckdyke]

The explanation could be innocent. The driver broke wind and the escaping menthane caused auto-combustion. 

[FancyCat]

Never mind on boat, the location does not match the explosion at least from that angle.

[kraze]

https://twitter.com/OleksiyDanilov/status/1578636142055870464

 

Well.

Edited October 8, 2022 by kraze

[chrisl]

6 minutes ago, kraze said:

Let's play guessing game: I'd say the likely way to do it was knowing the supply train schedule (easy enough by just watching the bridge daily) and exploiting that to fullest by hiring some unaware russian truck driver to deliver a ton of something in cardboard boxes (e.g. "washing machines") by driving out strictly at 7 AM to catch the train. And hitting the button at the right time.

Now that would've been pretty "uncivilized" by western standards and I guess it means that Nobel peace prize should be taken away so only belarussians and russians share it.

The train is a pretty short target in time - do Russian trains run as reliably as Swiss?  

It might be easier if it's not a suicide bomber to know which truck it's going to be in and follow it in a car with a remote (which could just be a call from a phone). 

A

[FancyCat]

Missile?

 

[LongLeftFlank]

6 minutes ago, chrisl said:

So Russia hires inspectors trained by the TSA?

...Or the competent ones were all conscripted for 'SMO'

 

Is there a grassy knoll nearby?

Edited October 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[kraze]

6 minutes ago, chrisl said:

The train is a pretty short target in time - do Russian trains run as reliably as Swiss?  

It might be easier if it's not a suicide bomber to know which truck it's going to be in and follow it in a car with a remote (which could just be a call from a phone). 

A

russian trains do have a schedule (it's their main supply artery for whole Crimea, not just frontlines - so it's reasonable to assume a fuel train always delivers fuel through the bridge at XX:XX AM) and the truck was most likely followed by one of the cars, where the spotter was going to hit the button when the truck crosses ways with the train.

I'd even say they were trying to go for exploding it at the bridge arc ideally (as you can see it's really close) but the train was faster (here you have that unpredictable train time variation)

Edited October 8, 2022 by kraze

[MikeyD]

We say Ukraine but lets remember a lot of Russians are really REALLY pissed with mass conscription, especially in ethnic minority areas. That lowers the probability that Ukraine did it from 98% to 78% (still pretty darned high). How would Ukraine get 2 tons of explosives onto a truck driving out of Krasnodar?

[Der Zeitgeist]

Just now, MikeyD said:

We say Ukraine but lets remember a lot of Russians are really REALLY pissed with mass conscription, especially in ethnic minority areas. That lowers the probability that Ukraine did it from 98% to 78% (still pretty darned high). How would Ukraine get 2 tons of explosives onto a truck driving out of Krasnodar?

By bribing a few key people.

[The_MonkeyKing]

16 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Missile?

 

Missile theory has a hole the size of missing footage and reports of anti-aircraft system firing in the area. They would have definitely tried to intercept.

I am still unconvinced of any current hypothesis. 

[chrisl]

4 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

We say Ukraine but lets remember a lot of Russians are really REALLY pissed with mass conscription, especially in ethnic minority areas. That lowers the probability that Ukraine did it from 98% to 78% (still pretty darned high). How would Ukraine get 2 tons of explosives onto a truck driving out of Krasnodar?

With a Bill of Lading that says it's 2 tons of Russian explosives intended for Russian forces?  

(edit: It might even be an actual Russian shipment of 2 tons of explosives.)

And the remotely triggered part is too small to notice on the x-ray.

Edited October 8, 2022 by chrisl

[FancyCat]

I see people saying explosives under the bridge, can SOF via underwater or boat get close enough to attach the explosives and enough in the right places?

I wonder if those USVs got used?