How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Calamine Waffles]

Geographically even less likely than the truck bomb, to be honest.

[The_MonkeyKing]

4 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I see people saying explosives under the bridge, can SOF via underwater or boat get close enough to attach the explosives and enough in the right places?

I wonder if those USVs got used?

 

Could be, as likely as any of the other ideas floating around. haha

Could be launched from close by undercover civilian ship. UKR clearly has lots of operatives in Russia

[TheVulture]

1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

I see people saying explosives under the bridge, can SOF via underwater or boat get close enough to attach the explosives and enough in the right places?

Under the bridge doesn't seem very likely. Stepping through the CCTV footage, the first frame that isn't just vehicles on the road is a mostly saturated frame of the blast - consistent with a very large explosion on the to of the bridge. Under the bridge your expect to see a few frames of light coming from under the bridge before the surface began to break, and you'd have a lot more debris falling down from the sky in the aftermath I'd have thought.

Truck bomb seems consistent with the video. 

[Grigb]

The effect on RU logistical operations:

One

Quote

I remind you that a full-fledged "land corridor to the Crimea" still does not exist because the Donetsk railway interchange is not completely controlled by us (Avdiivka), and the Donetsk—Volnovakha section is located close to the front line.

Two

Quote

The launch of ferries is virtually impossible due to the lack of ferries themselves in Crimea.
Passenger ferries operated before the construction of the Crimean Bridge mostly [already] left the water area. 

Three

Quote

There is no ferry crossing. Ferries have been gone for a long time, it's a whole process to return them [back]- a whole month. Only through Zaporozhye and the DPR.

 

[chrisl]

Just now, FancyCat said:

I see people saying explosives under the bridge, can SOF via underwater or boat get close enough to attach the explosives and enough in the right places?

I wonder if those USVs got used?

 

The truck is still the best candidate.

The guardrails in the intact lane are bent out like the explosion came from the opposite road surface - it looks like the truck might have been just before the pier that the road is bent in half over (with segments down on both sides).  The rails on the train side of the dropped portion are also bent towards the train.

It also looks like there's a scorch circle with a clean spot centered on the truck - maybe the lower part of the truck shaded that from the scorch.  Someone with more direct experience with explody things might comment better on that.

[FancyCat]

Hmm I do hope the rail bridge is damaged enough, not sure if all the fuel cars ignited. Still good the road bridge is damaged but the rail bridge is the essential thing. If it was the truck, why not the left lane? Closer to the rail bridge?

[Zeleban]

Crimean publics report a lack of cash at ATMs and a shortage of fuel at gas stations. Residents of Crimea reacted to the fall of the bridge

[kraze]

20 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

We say Ukraine but lets remember a lot of Russians are really REALLY pissed with mass conscription, especially in ethnic minority areas. That lowers the probability that Ukraine did it from 98% to 78% (still pretty darned high). How would Ukraine get 2 tons of explosives onto a truck driving out of Krasnodar?

Russians will never do such a thing. They are "pissed" (scared) with the conscription, but they still support the invasion and bridge itself is a Holy symbol of their victory over the evil West, which accepted the occupation. Plus dying in a truck so you don't possibly die in a war makes no sense. Not to mention a truckload of explosives isn't something a russian has at home, unless it's some military organization. And, again, the Bridge is Holy. An enlistment office? Yes. Bridge? No. Holy.

Truck drivers get hired all the time. They do deliveries so often they won't care what's in the boxes loaded into the truck as long as they get paid. It's the easiest part of the plan.

Edited October 8, 2022 by kraze

[TheVulture]

8 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Hmm I do hope the rail bridge is damaged enough, not sure if all the fuel cars ignited. Still good the road bridge is damaged but the rail bridge is the essential thing. If it was the truck, why not the left lane? Closer to the rail bridge?

If it was a military explosives truck, then there probably wasn't any opportunity to hit a truck carrying 2 tons of explosives away from Crimea. It's all going the other way.

Edited October 8, 2022 by TheVulture

[TheVulture]

I suppose another important question now is how much capability does Ukraine have to hit the site to prevent repairs. A missile strike might not have taken down the bridge, but it can probably do a number on some cranes and a repair crew trying to get the rail line back in service.

[FancyCat]

Video close up of the end tail of the railcars burning. Fire department arrived.

 

[chrisl]

3 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Under the bridge doesn't seem very likely. Stepping through the CCTV footage, the first frame that isn't just vehicles on the road is a mostly saturated frame of the blast - consistent with a very large explosion on the to of the bridge. Under the bridge your expect to see a few frames of light coming from under the bridge before the surface began to break, and you'd have a lot more debris falling down from the sky in the aftermath I'd have thought.

Truck bomb seems consistent with the video. 

The last frame where the bottom turns white indicates when the explosion happened.  It looks like a rolling shutter CMOS sensor (pretty standard for surveillance cams) that reads out one line at a time to make each picture.  The readout was ~4/5 of the way down the frame when the explosion happened - the truck and adjacent car were recorded, and then another ~20% of the lines, then the explosion happened and saturated the remaining ~20% of lines of that frame and all the lines of the next, except for wedges along the left side and top that look like they were in shadow from the light (presumably the camera housing or some kind of enclosure).

[Der Zeitgeist]

 

[RockinHarry]

Best good morning pics since long time. Was the first to see after switching on TV and news. My best bet would be truck bomb a well, but who sent it? Since Vlad is threatening with his sh***y hypersonic crap and  right from the start, I wouldn´t be surprised if it was himself then justifying use of tac nukes. Anything could happen since Vlad knocked his head after slipping from the toilet bowl in february.

[LongLeftFlank]

12 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

If it was a military explosives truck, then there probably wasn't any opportunity to hit a truck carrying 2 tons of explosives away from Crimea. It's all going the other way.

You sure about that? The train and the truck were moving the same direction.

 

 

Edited October 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[kraze]

5 minutes ago, RockinHarry said:

Best good morning pics since long time. Was the first to see after switching on TV and news. My best bet would be truck bomb a well, but who sent it? Since Vlad is threatening with his sh***y hypersonic crap and  right from the start, I wouldn´t be surprised if it was himself then justifying use of tac nukes. Anything could happen since Vlad knocked his head after slipping from the toilet bowl in february.

Not the bridge. He would've exploded a few apartment blocks in Moscow, he has a track record.

Bridge is a symbol. Exploding a symbol of your power on your own bday? Nah.

Besides our secretary of security council kind of said "we did it" in his tweet.

[chrisl]

So regardless of whose explosives it was and who triggered it, Russia has a problem even if the rail line is still usable.

If they're going to use the bridge to send military supplies, which by definition kind of includes large quantities of HE, they need to unload and inspect in detail every single train car that goes across to avoid the same thing happening next week on the rail bridge.

So that's about it for supplies to the southern front & Kherson.

Fall and mud are coming.  None of the routes for supplies are secure (land bridge or Kerch bridge).  If the Kerch rail bridge isn't usable, supplies probably have to go by truck through the land bridge, which is going to be lots of fun in the mud.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Good thread here about the prospects for an attack into the 'land bridge', key terrain, etc.

...

 

And Professor O'Brien brings the rail map....

Extreme magnification, Mr. Sulu

Next phase:  Operation "WAR OF THE RAILS: FALL 2022 EDITION" ?

(LLF preens modestly)

 

So the UA doesn't even need to storm the Azov Highlands to effectively split the Russian armies!

Edited October 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[FancyCat]

I do want to note that when reviewing whether it would be easier to retake Crimea vs pre-2022 occupied Ukraine, the odds ticked slightly in favor of Crimea today. Certainly Russia can probably supply Donetsk easier than Crimea if the bridge is down.

[Offshoot]

27 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Under the bridge doesn't seem very likely. Stepping through the CCTV footage, the first frame that isn't just vehicles on the road is a mostly saturated frame of the blast - consistent with a very large explosion on the to of the bridge. Under the bridge your expect to see a few frames of light coming from under the bridge before the surface began to break, and you'd have a lot more debris falling down from the sky in the aftermath I'd have thought.

Truck bomb seems consistent with the video. 

This the the first frame that isn't normal. The flash starts at the bottom of the frame.

In another video, you can see something moving under the bridge

These both come from this thread that was linked to before (https://twitter.com/INTobservers/status/1578633947109810176). You can see the moving boat in the first video.

 

[Letter from Prague]

6 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

This the the first frame that isn't normal. The flash starts at the bottom of the frame.

In another video, you can see something moving under the bridge

These both come from this thread that was linked to before (https://twitter.com/INTobservers/status/1578633947109810176). You can see the moving boat in the first video.

 

I'm no explosions expert, but it seemed there's a lot of water in the video. Is that consistent with truck on bridge? If not, it can be another thing pointing to a boat.

[LongLeftFlank]

39 minutes ago, RockinHarry said:

Vlad is threatening with his sh***y hypersonic crap

Lol, it's "hypersonic crap" all right!

We now return you to you Mutha Beautiful Bridge thread....

Edited October 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[chrisl]

1 minute ago, Letter from Prague said:

I'm no explosions expert, but it seemed there's a lot of water in the video. Is that consistent with truck on bridge? If not, it can be another thing pointing to a boat.

I suspect it's consistent with a big bridge segment getting blown straight down into the water.

[Letter from Prague]

2 minutes ago, chrisl said:

I suspect it's consistent with a big bridge segment getting blown straight down into the water.

You can see it few seconds after the explosion. No idea how long a common bridge segment takes to fall down, if it does immediately or if it thinks about it first.

[Taranis]

11 hours ago, sburke said:

yep that is the big concern for France...someone is going to attack.  I've heard rumblings from Luxembourg.  They are violently aggressive. 

I find you a bit harsh mate. I understand the questioning of the command (without saying that it is justified). The role of the general staff is to maintain operational and territorial defense capability. The French army has already given 1/4 of its CAESARs, which is quite substantial, while the army must maintain a projection capacity in Overseas and Africa. NATO also needs to be prepared for any eventuality. The decrease in the quantity of material also means less material to train and therefore less good quality units. This is especially true in the case of CAESARs, because fewer CAESARs = fewer soldiers training. After all reserves that's all. Even the USA announced (yesterday ? can't remember) that they were going to reduce their supply of modern munitions and replace it with something older because it is starting to seriously impact their operational and training capacity. As a saying goes with us, "To Command is to foresee".