How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Just a nitpick, but important- there is certainly no such thing in Russia as oligarch faction. Oligarch is just an occupation licensed by the state, not even  institution like FSB or militaries (btw. it is also debatable how autonomous those can be in Putin's system, i.e. if we can call them factions or blocks). But being oligarch has simple rules: if you earn the money, you can "eat" a lot of extra by yourself. But under any consequences you don't engage in serious politics, not official nor behind the courtains, unless specifically asked by Kremlin himself. Putin's rise to power and one of main claims to authority (his tsarist deed) nowadays is that he curbed oligarchs and mafias of 90's . Khodorkovsky and several others served a good example here.

Correct and always good to point out.  One of the reasons there isn't a solid oligarch "pillar" within the Kremlin is that the oligarchs are, by their nature, selfish.  They are more concerned about personal wealth, and keeping it, than anything else.  They are also the least likely to be supportive of standard Kremlin talking points about the West because the oligarchs know that is where they get and spend their money.  So having a bunch of individuals acting in their own self interests that fundamentally don't align with standard Russian concepts of power really does put them "odd men out".

However, this cuts both ways.  While oligarchs tend to stay out of politics, they also tend to steer clear of supporting political goals of the Kremlin.  Putin has struggled over the years to get the oligarchs to do things for the benefit of Russia.  Especially after 2014 Putin did a bunch of things to try and keep Russian capital from flowing to Cyprus, Gibraltar, Panama, Channel Islands, etc.  I don't think it was very successful.

What is also true is that when an oligarch choose to become politically active, he can present either problems or benefits to the regime.  Look at the various oligarchs that financially supported the 2014 invasion and subsequent war.  Or the ones that help keep power in various parts of Russia through their business dealings.  All good from Putin's standpoint.  But then there's Khordorkovsky types that cause problems even after being arrested and economically brought back down to Earth.

The main issue here is that Russian leadership is inherently focused on money.  Oligarchs have a lot of it.  This is a potential problem for Putin because if even one oligarch funds something that runs contrary to Kremlin's best interests, it could be a big problem.  For example, paying for inside information from the FSB in order to hire former FSB agents to blow up Putin.  Girkin is probably pretty wealthy by Russian standards, but I doubt he has the sort of millions of USD and connections that could buy that sort of muscle.

If Putin catches wind of an oligarch exploring ways to use his money to influence things that run counter to the Kremlin's wishes, even in better times, the hammer would come down on him.  Now, with things in a really bad state?  It means murder-suicides with children being slaughtered and generally lower threshold of violation to be thrown out a window vs. other options.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

ninja'd, as usuall

Edited September 2, 2022 by Vanir Ausf B

[billbindc]

Galeotti on suicides and ‘suicides’. I think this applies to both Gazprom guy and Drugina: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-the-defenestration-of-ravil-maganov-says-about-russia

[dan/california]

Steve and Illia are so aligned they either are, or should be, friends.

[Rokko]

Too close for comfort.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Rokko said:

Too close for comfort.

Air burst would have been 100% kia. 

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Maj. Shamil Nasrulayev, Dagestan SOBR “Yastreb”:

Maj. Dmitry Kopantsev, Chief of Operations for 165th Artillery Brigade, 35th CAA:

 

Edited September 2, 2022 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

It looks like RUSI (which has made a lot of correct calls during this war) is thinking along the same lines I am in terms of what Ukraine's offensive is likely to be like.  To rephrase, it isn't necessarily to retake all of the Kherson territory, it is to kill (capturing is also good) large quantities of Russians.  As I've been saying since this war started, KILLING RUSSIANS SHOULD ALWAYS BE UKRAINE'S PRIMARY GOAL. ALWAYS (deliberate emphasis on always ).  In order to do this Ukraine must retain the ability to kill Russians in large quantities, which by extension means not loosing too much military capacity while pursuing the main objective.  Force conservation, therefore, is a part of the overall goal of killing Russians.

Obligating Russia to burn through its supplies and freezing to death over the winter is a viable path to victory.  If there's no Russian defenders left standing, then guess what happens to the terrain?  Look at the battle maps around Kyiv and Kharkiv to get a solid answer   The simple fact is that Russia has to fight for territory, Ukraine simply has to help the Russians to not be there and it it reverts to Ukrainian control as if by magic.  Doesn't matter how the Russians presence is lost, the end result is the same.

Dramatic assaults through Russian lines to get to the Dnepr is riskier and less easy to do, so why do it unless Russia hands over an easy path?

Trying to retake a contested Kherson is idiotic.  No way Ukraine is planning on doing a Mariupol style offensive.  None.

So now onto this...

5 hours ago, Butschi said:

What strikes me is that all of this is pretty obvious. (Once someone points it out to me ) So even the Russian have to know it and it has to have been clear even with the bridges fully intact. Now, the Russians have shown little subtlety so far but that doesn't mean they are brain dead and totally incompetent (well maybe they are but let's stay cautious here). That to me mean dome or all of these points:

* Because it is so obvious it is precisely what the UA is not going to do.

* The UA is very confident they know what they are doing.

*@FancyCats thought is correct that the Russian sacrifice troops there in order to bind UA forces while trying to make progress in Donbass.

Then again...

Magnum: I know what you're thinking. I was thinking it too. In fact, when I write my private investigator manual, there'll be a chapter on "The Oldest Tricks in the World." Now, this had to be one of them. An anonymous tip? A mysterious meeting? The only trouble with the oldest tricks is, they usually work.

 

I do think there's a much larger Ukrainian operation underway than just Kherson, but that Kherson is the primary kinetic element that much of the rest is based around.  I also believe that Ukraine has very long time tables in mind, though obviously quicker results are desirable if possible.  If true, then all of the component pieces probably have very flexible and conditions based concepts of time associated with their specific goals.  This is... well... not usual

Here's my rough accounting:

• eventual destruction of 20-25,000 Russian forces, including some of their best remaining ones, currently on the right bank of the Dnepr
• force Russia to commit it's reserves.  Doesn't really matter too much where they go, just get that variable out of the equations
• the Russians have tabs on Ukrainian planning from the inside, so plan a whole bunch of plausible actions and keep Russia guessing as to which ones might eventually get triggered.  The best way to do this is for Ukrainian leadership to legitimately consider implementing them.  There's a big difference between having 5 planned attacks with only 2 viable and only 1 real vs. 5 planned attacks with all 5 viable and real, but not decided upon.  In fact, making them obvious creates even more problems for Russia because they don't have to be convinced that something may or may not be real.  Here are the ones I see as being obvious:
  • regaining more territory along the Russian border in Kharkiv Oblast
  • applying renewed pressure on Vovchansk (also Kharkiv Oblast) to choke LOCs going into Luhansk
  • pushing remaining Russian forces back into Izyum and interdicting LOCs moving through the city itself
  • limited counter attack (even if artillery centric) somewhere in the Donbas to relieve Russian pressure
  • limited counter attack somewhere along the long extended front between Dnepr and Donetsk
• some visible progress on regaining territory.  Doesn't need to be massive, doesn't need to be quick.  Just needs to be something to show progress in ways most people conceive of progress. (there is also the Humanitarian reason to take land back quickly, but I'm only focused on the military side of things)
• continue to cause Russian logistics headaches everywhere, but especially in the south.  This means blowing up supply depots, logistics hubs, HQs, etc.
• step up partisan activities everywhere, but especially in the south.  Make Russia doubt that they have full control of the territory they occupy, reinforce to the world (including the Russians) that Ukrainians are never going to surrender.  This is as much psychological as it is material
• ensure that collaborators are few in number and inept in abilities by reminding people that aiding the Russians means being held accountable at some point and in some way.  Arrests when possible, assassinations when not.  This complicates Russians political goals as well as aiding in the sense that physically occupying Ukrainian territory is the easy part of this war
• give the Western allies something to cheer about and keep the money/weapons flowing

 

As for what Russia might be up to... I still believe taking the rest of the Donbas remains Putin's primary focus, at which point he will try to freeze the war and wait out Western resolve.  The theory that he believes winter will decide this is logical.  However, winter isn't here for a while yet and there's a lot that can go wrong for Russia between now and then, so sitting around and waiting isn't what they are likely to do.  Especially because Ukraine is, obviously, up to something big.

Because Putin is politically bound to keep Kherson despite the risks, the Russian plan is probably to do the following:

• restart the Donbas offensive to distract Ukraine and to draw away forces that otherwise would be applied against Kherson
• start up a limited offensive somewhere else, such as Kharkiv or maybe even Izyum (again).  More intended for propaganda and distraction purposes, so no significant investment in resources
• continue local pressure along the rest of the line to draw away Ukrainian resources from Kherson
• do whatever is possible for Kherson forces, but largely it comes to hoping they are already strong enough to hold out until winter
• continue trying to convince Ukraine that Russia has an ace up its sleeve and will use it somewhere unexpected, such as towards Mykolaiv.  This is all bluff and Ukraine isn't likely going to fall for any of it, but the Russian population will and even some in the West might continue to failed thinking

There's so many problems with this plan, but that's about the best they can come up with... flawed plans with little hope of success.  They ran out of real options months ago.

Steve

P.S.  there is no Russian offensive possible towards Mykolaiv.  Russia doesn't have the forces or the logistics for anything more than local counter attacks anywhere in Kherson at this point.

[BFCElvis]

58 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Exaggerated nonsense.

McCarthty was btw a hero and basically correct. 

Enough, mate. I've had multiple complaints now. This will be the only warning, ok? Let it go.

[fireship4]

3 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Lieber ein Ende mit Schrecken als ein Schrecken ohne Ende.

A final solution if you will?

You guys don't know what you are saving.

Everything you and @kraze are saying about the Russian ex-pat population could be right in general, and similar things can be said about other populations - 'Muslims' for example.  They can be said about the Ukrainians - infected with the Western ideology, they cannot see how it harms the Slav.  Harsh measures are necessary.

So you've imported a large number of people and they have their own culture, and they largely stick together and don't atomise into the larger culture.  They don't seem make themselves available to the ideas and mechanisms our culture has which influence behaviour.  Ideas like human rights, freedom of choice, open criticism, advocating the truth over the interests of your tribe - changing ideas which can always be improved.

So you made a mistake and think you have damaged this Western culture by importing too many who act upon different principles.  Bad luck.  You do more damage to it by throwing them out.  Fix the problem another way - if they have citizenship they are now part of you, and how you treat them is how you can be treated.

[And as far as I can see it McCarthy was not a hero and did damage which echoes until the present day, even if he was right in some cases about Soviet agents.  A committee to scrutinise the political beliefs of workers which then bans them from work if they fail?  It is against the very notion of discussion and criticism toward better ideas.  It sounds more Soviet than anything else.  And you guys sometimes sound like the other ones.]

Edited September 2, 2022 by fireship4

[kraze]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

- I get we are sore on Russia right now, they earned that one; however, at what point on this incredibly myopic line of thinking do we become worse than we assign to them?  All in the name of "safety" - a whole lot of atrocity and historic marks of shame lay on the feet of "safety".  I have been to one genocide and trust me none of you know what you are talking about, so stop hijacking the thread.

No knowledge about genocides here man. I mean it's true - one of the previous many times they did one on us - they killed 5 million Ukrainians in one year, literally nearly every family here has some ancestor brutally murdered by russians at some point, so I guess the current one doesn't count, because they are now prevented from beating that high score.

If only there were mass graves on occupied territories that could've been seen from space - "good" russians would be storming Kremlin by now, trying to put an end to it.

But of course russians doing genocides for centuries is perfectly fine - it's saying that they should be held responsible for their absolutely atrocious actions by simply not being allowed to cause harm in the first place - by making them stay in the country the love the most - means I'm the Hitler here.

Edited September 2, 2022 by kraze

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, kraze said:

No knowledge about genocides here man. I mean it's true - one of the previous many times they did one on us - they killed 5 million Ukrainians in one year, literally nearly every family here has some ancestor brutally murdered by russians at some point, so I guess the current one doesn't count, because they are now prevented from beating that high score.

If only there were mass graves on occupied territories that could've been seen from space - "good" russians would be storming Kremlin by now, trying to put an end to it.

But of course russians doing genocides is perfectly fine - it's saying that they should be held responsible for their absolutely atrocious actions by simply not being allowed to cause harm in the first place - means I'm the Hitler here.

We interrupt this off topic derailment and return you to your regularly scheduled discussion of the war.   Please.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, kraze said:

No knowledge about genocides here man. I mean it's true - one of the previous many times they did one on us - they killed 5 million Ukrainians in one year, literally nearly every family here has some ancestor brutally murdered by russians at some point, so I guess the current one doesn't count, because they are now prevented from beating that high score.

If only there were mass graves on occupied territories that could've been seen from space - "good" russians would be storming Kremlin by now, trying to put an end to it.

But of course russians doing genocides for centuries is perfectly fine - it's saying that they should be held responsible for their absolutely atrocious actions by simply not being allowed to cause harm in the first place - means I'm the Hitler here.

Nobody in this thread is ignorant or supportive of Russian atrocities, be it in the past or this one going on right now.  You are educating nobody by posting stuff like this, but you are derailing discussion about things that are more relevant to the topic at hand.

Steve

[kraze]

No prob - back to topic. 

[FancyCat]

I will leave these tweets here and note it is in Russia's interest to lay full claim to the Russian language and ethnicity.

Here is a article where Russians in Latvia are shifting to support Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-62527789

 

 

[Grigb]

Very sober RU assessment

Quote

What is happening now in the Kherson direction cannot be compared with anything but the Kursk Bulge... Very heavy battles are now taking place on the southern front.

 

[Aragorn2002]

43 minutes ago, BFCElvis said:

Enough, mate. I've had multiple complaints now. This will be the only warning, ok? Let it go.

I will let it go. Mate.

[Aragorn2002]

53 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

A final solution if you will?

You guys don't know what you are saving.

Everything you and @kraze are saying about the Russian ex-pat population could be right in general, and similar things can be said about other populations - 'Muslims' for example.  They can be said about the Ukrainians - infected with the Western ideology, they cannot see how it harms the Slav.  Harsh measures are necessary.

So you've imported a large number of people and they have their own culture, and they largely stick together and don't atomise into the larger culture.  They don't seem make themselves available to the ideas and mechanisms our culture has which influence behaviour.  Ideas like human rights, freedom of choice, open criticism, advocating the truth over the interests of your tribe - changing ideas which can always be improved.

So you made a mistake and think you have damaged this Western culture by importing too many who act upon different principles.  Bad luck.  You do more damage to it by throwing them out.  Fix the problem another way - if they have citizenship they are now part of you, and how you treat them is how you can be treated.

[And as far as I can see it McCarthy was not a hero and did damage which echoes until the present day, even if he was right in some cases about Soviet agents.  A committee to scrutinise the political beliefs of workers which then bans them from work if they fail?  It is against the very notion of discussion and criticism toward better ideas.  It sounds more Soviet than anything else.  And you guys sometimes sound like the other ones.]

Nah, we're just more realistic than most. But let's leave it at that.

[Billy Ringo]

https://theins.ru/en/politics/254573

"As a result, it turns out that during the six months of aggression against Ukraine, Russia should have spent at least 7 million shells, not counting the losses of frontline depots as a result of Ukrainian strikes. In other words, if the intensity of the war remains at its current level, Moscow will face a tangible shell shortage by the end of 2022 and will have to reduce its use of artillery in order to save munitions."

"And even if we assume that Russian soldiers do not neglect maintenance procedures for barrels and other gun mechanisms, and that Russia has an unknown, but not an infinite, number of them in reserve (especially on guns from storage depots), by the end of 2022 wear and tear of artillery will lead to a drastic reduction in its effectiveness. "

"Of course, tanks, armored infantry vehicles, APCs and airborne combat vehicles stand idle most of the time even during the war, but if they run at least 2-3 hours a day, they have worked 370-560 hours since the start of the war. And even if the relatively fresh, even if not new, armored vehicles are brought in from the military units and storage depots, the lion's share of them will have to be sent for repairs by the end of 2022, provided they are not destroyed, if the high intensity of combat operations continues. And here it is worth repeating: the service life of a tank gun is also finite."

A little research on Russian military production has provided few concrete answers other than there is unanimous opinion that Russia can't match production with current usage rates.  At some point basically everything will run out.  (The obvious.) 

But, the end of 2022 seems to be a fairly common denominator as to when things will become decidedly more difficult for the Russians. (Not just this article, but several others.)  Factor in the cold weather and what is seemingly increasing logistical challenges brought on by the Ukrainians----have the Ukrainians simply decided to slow play their efforts waiting for the Russians to break under their own weight?   Should we expect anything of significance this Fall and early Winter?

 

 

 

Edited September 2, 2022 by Billy Ringo
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[Rokko]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Air burst would have been 100% kia. 

I think if this happened to me in a CM turn, I would still consider this platoon as a write-off. More likely than not there's more shells coming from where the first three came from and the guns are basically already dialed in.

Now that you say it, though, I don't think I've seen any footage of airbursts at all from this war so far, which seems odd.

[Grigb]

We got update from Rybar.

While Ru continue to push from direction of Davydiv Brid UKR wheeled to opposite direction and expanding the main bridgehead.  That's smart - they are moving toward Inhulets river there (it turns off map). If they managed to reach it they can anchor flank on the river and it big help against RU.

Another interesting thing is that RU are still pushing from the wrong direction as if the reserves are already wasted, committed in wrong place or not committed at all yet. 

[BlackMoria]

15 minutes ago, Rokko said:

I think if this happened to me in a CM turn, I would still consider this platoon as a write-off. More likely than not there's more shells coming from where the first three came from and the guns are basically already dialed in.

Now that you say it, though, I don't think I've seen any footage of airbursts at all from this war so far, which seems odd.

About a week ago, there was video of Excalibur rounds hitting soft skin vehicles and a dugout.  Those are clearly airburst rounds... the signature explosion is unmistakable.

Edit:  I was an artillery officer for 17 years and a forward observer for most of that time.  Airburst rounds go off at a optimal 7 meters for variable time (VT) fuzes.  Depending with distance and angle of view, that is low enough that an airburst can be mistaken for a normal point detonation fuze burst.  So chances are good that airburst fuzes are being more commonly used...but we are not clearly seeing it in videos...because the 7 metre height and seeing if from a drone video (mainly overhead angle) from hundreds of metres distance makes the airburst look like a ground graze burst.

Edited September 2, 2022 by BlackMoria

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Rokko said:

I think if this happened to me in a CM turn, I would still consider this platoon as a write-off. More likely than not there's more shells coming from where the first three came from and the guns are basically already dialed in.

Now that you say it, though, I don't think I've seen any footage of airbursts at all from this war so far, which seems odd.

Yeah, I just had one of those moments -- "is that a spotting round?  I better move my guys."  'cept the spotting round was in wrong place and the real barrage was where I moved my guys.  Ouch.

I know three Russians here in my town.  All excellent, brilliant actually.  Super nice.  

Steve makes excellent points above about what UKR should do militarily.  The only thing I'd add is that UKR may choose to be more agressive than they would prefer because they have dozens of thousands of civilians who's food will be stolen by RU troops.  Thousands of Ukrainians starving and freezing in Kherson region would not be a good look. 

In the longer run, I think UKR very very much needs prisoners by the thousands.  They need their mothers putting pressure on Moscow so that UKR can trade prisoners for all the kidnapped civilians.  

[Artkin]

"by the end of 2022 wear and tear of artillery will lead to a drastic reduction in its effectiveness"

Good point, what good is an artillery army if all the barrels are worn, and all the shells are spent? The production capacity seemingly existed under the Soviet Union but not in the Russian Federation. 

Ok they had the largest land army, but it took them decades to build it. 

[Zeleban]

new photos from the southern front