How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[MikeyD]

The cat thought he had made a new friend for a moment.

[kraze]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The Mariupol coverage is still ambiguous and annoying.  There's a few saying Ukraine has surrendered, then a couple of sentences down say it is unclear what's going on with hundreds of troops that didn't surrender.

Sheesh.

Steve

Aye, russians will be exploiting that for psyop.

But, as usual, follow official statements by the army and the actual commanders.

Of course russians are completely untrustworthy - but we'll see how it goes.

[BornGinger]

I might be late with this picture, but I think that Putin will be very proud of receiving this price if Finland and Sweden (and maybe even Ukraine) become members of NATO. The question is where should he put it, in his office or in the main entrance?

Edited May 18, 2022 by BornGinger

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, BornGinger said:

I might be late with this picture, but I think that Putin will be very proud of receiving this price. The question is where should he put it, in his office or in the main entrance?

His headstone would be lovely....

[sburke]

Ukraine claims guerrillas have killed several high-ranking Russians in southern city (msn.com)

[dan/california]

Great thread from the guy who wrote Bloodlands, which is basically the History of how we got here.

[Holien]

5 hours ago, Gary R Lukas said:

Has anyone fighting the war come across Russians who are being killed by their own commanders or Chechen Soldiers

On another forum this has been mentioned and it's from watching the interviews with the Russian POWs. They have said it during the interviews. Not sure how we will know for sure if true as it could be just a bogeyman story put around the Russian units to keep them "motivated".

Of course it could be true in some cases. We will never be certain unless an incident happens in front of a cctv camera and caught on film.

[kraze]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Great thread from the guy who wrote Bloodlands, which is basically the History of how we got here.

Of course they "go along". Because propaganda isn't the reason anything happens. Propaganda simply gives convenient excuses for why something happens.

Russians can simply feel good about their crimes / inaction by just repeating things from TV that exonerate them. It's only how they truly think and act that counts.

[Holien]

13 hours ago, Vacillator said:

Where I am in the UK I have not heard folk on the street mentioning this, but to be honest I don't tend to hang around listening .

What I have seen is an increase in numbers of blue and yellow flags outside houses.  Of course what happens in one area may not represent wider regions.

 

Yep my neck of the woods is very "positive" towards UK support towards Ukraine of the war. I live in a small village and folk have a reasonable life style.

Just a comment I picked up on a BBC 2 Talk show hosted by Mr Vine as I was driving somewhere and I thought hmmm the mood can change.

So  I agree at the moment the UK on the whole seems to be backing the level of support we are giving. I guess cynically it’s a great testing range for our new weapon systems. Seeing Brimstone and NLaw in use and tweaking them if any issues found.

As ever Steve is pretty spot on with his analysis of the situation that has led to the economic instability and there are a lot of causes that have nothing to do with Ukraine.

But for the unsophisticated who are more akin to goldfish the last thing they hear and if it’s simple is what gets the blame. Just human nature and it’s exploited by those trying to achieve power.

So there will be pressure building at some stage to scale back expenditure. As Noted by Steve...

Quote

I don't expect the unsophisticated "blame game" mentality to understand this, so I agree that if the war drags on there will be some degree of pressure within some countries, and the West generally, to scale back support for Ukraine in some way.

Ultimately I think Steve is spot on with this. I think the timescale maybe sooner than a year, but the ultimate sentiment is I think correct.

Quote

The critical phase of support for Ukraine has already been successfully completed, so a major scaling back of support in a year's time won't likely matter.

(I hope so but of course we could always be wrong...)

My point in what I wrote is that we can not assume that Ukraine will always have support from the West for unlimited aid so the sooner Russia is kicked out the sooner the unsophisticated can be focused on some other issue..

[womble]

33 minutes ago, Holien said:

comment I picked up on a BBC 2 Talk show hosted by Mr Vine as I was driving somewhere and I thought hmmm the mood can change.

Jeremy Vine is a presenter who gets his ratings by inflaming contentious issues. His show should in no way be regarded as representing anything other than views cherry-picked to generate indignation, disgust, hatred and any other negative emotion that feeds his audience's atavistic needs.

Sure, the view that we have no business in Ukraine exists, but just because the show presents it emphatically does not mean that it is widely held.

[Monty's Mighty Moustache]

22 minutes ago, womble said:

Jeremy Vine is a presenter who gets his ratings by inflaming contentious issues. His show should in no way be regarded as representing anything other than views cherry-picked to generate indignation, disgust, hatred and any other negative emotion that feeds his audience's atavistic needs.

Sure, the view that we have no business in Ukraine exists, but just because the show presents it emphatically does not mean that it is widely held.

Yup, I refer to him as the national rabble-rouser. Can be entertaining to listen to people complain about nothing but other than that I pay him little heed.

MMM

[Huba]

UAV attack on M777:

 

[Huba]

 

[LongLeftFlank]

19 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

While I'm not in the Donbass (Kramatorsk), I am not sure the situation is quite so dire. The RA has now lost yet another week, with the bulk of 2 divisions fighting to reach the river line of the Donetz.  Heavy attacks too, based on the NASA forest fire maps (which are loose proxy for artillery bombardments).

Where's the threat?

1. The RA push south from Izyum has stalled out, and is getting counterattacked and bombarded along its western face.

2. The failed river crossings between Yampil and Kreminna have been talked to death.

3. Every village the Russians take along the fortified front seems to cost them hundreds of casualties. It's a 'grinding game', but they are the ones getting ground.

4. So that leaves the UA holdouts across the river northeast of Sloviansk (Lyman industrial complexes and Sviatohirsk hills). Sources kept reporting Lyman falling or surrounded a week or more ago; there was fighting in the streets, the Russians had taken the retreat route. Nope, not yet.

 

I am no terrain analyst, but if you look closely at the topography, there is some very boggy terrain along the (late spring flood) river on either flank of Lyman; there is no further way to flank the defenders. They still have an escape route, on foot, which suits the UA just fine.

And once the Russians finally secure Lyman (presumably once the UA rearguard decides to go), they FINALLY reach the river at the end of May.

So great, they are now facing a rank of densely wooded hills that still separate them from their objective at Sloviansk-Kramatorsk.

Where's the crisis again?

[Huba]

The key to the tweet I posted is in the first sentence - the "sense". I absolutely agree that in if you look at the big picture, losing Lyman, and even Severodonetsk does not mean much, no way Russians will be able to cross the river anyway. 

From the participants perspective though, the grinding battle where Ukraine is slowly ceding ground, facing still superior firepower of the Russians must be taking a huge toll on the morale of defenders, and successes in Kharkhiv are probably not enough to alleviate this. 

 

Edit: Ukrainian partisans attacked a train in Melitopol

 

Edited May 18, 2022 by Huba

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers accompanied by members of the foreign legion fire mortars at Russian positions in the eastern region of Kharkiv, Ukraine, Tuesday May 17, 2022. BERNAT ARMANGUE / AP"

[Suleyman]

If UA keeps pushing on the Kharkiv axis and starts driving south, RU is in big trouble

[LongLeftFlank]

25 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

If UA keeps pushing on the Kharkiv axis and starts driving south, RU is in big trouble

God willing!

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Major Dmitry Lytnev, 4th Guards Tank Division

 

[Battlefront.com]

This is security camera footage from late winter that apparently shows arson of a Russian government building (recruiting office?).  No way to know for sure, but it definitely is arson.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/usblo6/another_dropped_cigarette_video_shows_the_arson/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

While I'm not in the Donbass (Kramatorsk), I am not sure the situation is quite so dire. The RA has now lost yet another week, with the bulk of 2 divisions fighting to reach the river line of the Donetz.  Heavy attacks too, based on the NASA forest fire maps (which are loose proxy for artillery bombardments).

Where's the threat?

1. The RA push south from Izyum has stalled out, and is getting counterattacked and bombarded along its western face.

2. The failed river crossings between Yampil and Kreminna have been talked to death.

3. Every village the Russians take along the fortified front seems to cost them hundreds of casualties. It's a 'grinding game', but they are the ones getting ground.

4. So that leaves the UA holdouts across the river northeast of Sloviansk (Lyman industrial complexes and Sviatohirsk hills). Sources kept reporting Lyman falling or surrounded a week or more ago; there was fighting in the streets, the Russians had taken the retreat route. Nope, not yet.

I am no terrain analyst, but if you look closely at the topography, there is some very boggy terrain along the (late spring flood) river on either flank of Lyman; there is no further way to flank the defenders. They still have an escape route, on foot, which suits the UA just fine.

And once the Russians finally secure Lyman (presumably once the UA rearguard decides to go), they FINALLY reach the river at the end of May.

So great, they are now facing a rank of densely wooded hills that still separate them from their objective at Sloviansk-Kramatorsk.

Where's the crisis again?

This is my take on it as well.  "Crisis" for the Ukrainian forces directly involved, maybe, but for the war's outcome it certainly isn't a crisis.  I said this a couple hundred pages ago when Izyum was lost and the forces were pushing south... Ukraine could lose this entire sector of front, along with all the forces in it, and it will still win the war.

That said, I don't think it is likely it will come to that for the reasons LLF pointed out.  Russia does not have the manpower to pull off even a "shallow encirclement".

There's also reports that Russian forces have withdrawn from some newly captured territory around Severodonetsk because local counter attacks and artillery were too much to withstand.

And then there's the whole logistics thing.  With Ukraine pushing deeper into the supply lines feeding Izyum, Lyman, and even Severodonetsk operations it is possible that Russia won't be able to maintain this "crisis" for much longer.

On that note, I've not had time to check in to see if the RUNINT has turned out to be accurate regarding Ukraine pushing forces into Vovchansk.  At the very least Ukraine is well within artillery range of the roads and rails there.  The terrain is also excellent for ambushing.

Steve

[Sequoia]

@LongLeftFlank  Sorry, but if the cat tweet was an answer to my question about JasonC, it went over my head.

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Major Gregory Artemiev, head of military commandant’s office in Volsk, Saratov Oblast.

 

[Artkin]

At-4 self destructs in a car in Russia:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/urwgqx/russia_some_returning_soldier_smuggled_an_at4_rpg/?ref=share&ref_source=embed&utm_content=title&utm_medium=post_embed&utm_name=f0527c7836174e468238bb0399fa82a1&utm_source=embedly&utm_term=urwgqx

BMP-3 Crewed mine in action:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/ur11yo/two_russian_bmp3s_hit_mines/?ref=share&ref_source=embed&utm_content=body&utm_medium=post_embed&utm_name=88a0e73584aa4759a7a7fa644060f8bd&utm_source=embedly&utm_term=ur11yo

 

Edited May 18, 2022 by Artkin

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, Artkin said:

At-4 self destructs in a car in Russia:

BMP-3 Crewed mine in action:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/ur11yo/two_russian_bmp3s_hit_mines/?ref=share&ref_source=embed&utm_content=body&utm_medium=post_embed&utm_name=88a0e73584aa4759a7a7fa644060f8bd&utm_source=embedly&utm_term=ur11yo

 

I edited your second link and it's probably time for another reminder...

Reddit autoplays videos as soon as the Forum page is loaded/refreshed.  Which is super, extremely super, annoying.  So we ask that when any of you put the link into your response, pause and you'll see a bar appear that offers you the option to "Display as a link instead".  Click on that and problem solved.

Steve