How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, Holman said:

Look. That's what you do when everything goes to hell and you're playing in Real Time mode...

And then you lose, badly...

[Machor]

An insightful thread on Russian logistics for the current fighting, where the supply lines of frontline BTGs are stretched longer than the Soviet norm for divisions:

TL;DR: Popasna direction is in trouble:

Soviet logistic tails:

Daily supply needs of Russian BTGs and artillery brigades, not including fuel and water:

Interesting expenditure statistics for the US:

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good to hear, of course.

I for one think we're quite a ways away from any serious change in NATO or EU policy towards Russia.  There's simply too much public pressure to actively support Ukraine and punish Russia.  This might change if the war goes long, but as I've been saying since the war started... that's not an option for Russia.

Steve

A friend who was watching Polish developments early in this war told me something interesting: the Polish government was *not* favorable to accepting Ukrainian refugees when it all began but it was rocked on its heels by the intense outpouring of support for them by the Polish public and had to reverse course immediately. Outside of Hungary, similar sea changes in opinion have  happened across the EU.

Edited May 17, 2022 by billbindc

[billbindc]

 

Exactly.

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

Exactly.

indecision is the key to flexibility... or something like that

[billbindc]

 

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

Has Putin fallen into Trump's worst habit? By which I mean sitting around all day watching his own propaganda? So getting  a viewpoint on this show is the only way to get it in front of him?

[sburke]

Ukraine Destroys 'Large Supply' of Russian Ammo: Report (msn.com)

 

As if they hadn't enough supply concerns...

[chuckdyke]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Has Putin fallen into Trump's worst habit?

Narcist and sociopath. A sociopath is a psychopath's student. But there is really no difference apart from one being born that way the other learned to be one.  Master manipulators with a complete lack of moral development. They understand consequences the only way to have influence on them.  

Edited May 17, 2022 by chuckdyke

[danfrodo]

11 minutes ago, sburke said:

Ukraine Destroys 'Large Supply' of Russian Ammo: Report (msn.com)

 

As if they hadn't enough supply concerns...

interesting, very interesting.  UKR continuing to find ways to weaken & unhinge RU forces.  And it sounds like they did it via arson.  I bet all the firefighting gear was looted and sent back to PutinLand.  And who is gonna get anywhere near burning buildings filled w ammo?   Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

Edited May 17, 2022 by danfrodo

[dan/california]

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Ukraine Destroys 'Large Supply' of Russian Ammo: Report (msn.com)

 

As if they hadn't enough supply concerns...

There was this posted today.  Said to have been an ammo dump that Ukraine hit with a M777:

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Machor said:

An insightful thread on Russian logistics for the current fighting, where the supply lines of frontline BTGs are stretched longer than the Soviet norm for divisions:

Eons ago, when dinosaurs ruled the Earth, I used to play Grigsby's "War In Russia".  A lot.  It was an incredibly detailed game considering it was played on a computer with 16kb of memory and a 180kb 5.25" floppy.  Which, I must say, I still have.

One of the things it had was a rudimentary supply system.  It simulated both war material and logistics capacity.  As simplistic as it was, one thing it taught me was how important logistics is to sustain an attack.  More often than I'd like I'd find myself pushing forward only to find that I had to abandon some portion of my offensive in order to keep my main effort going.  Either because I was burning through my supplies or because I couldn't get everything to where it needed to go concurrently.  Damned partisans would make things even worse.

This is why gaming is so important for understanding war.  I learned more from playing that simple game than I would have just reading books.  Combining the two was the best because as I read I could relate, and as I played I could appreciate what I read.

Steve

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Eons ago, when dinosaurs ruled the Earth, I used to play Grigsby's "War In Russia".  A lot.  It was an incredibly detailed game considering it was played on a computer with 16kb of memory and a 180kb 5.25" floppy.  Which, I must say, I still have.

One of the things it had was a rudimentary supply system.  It simulated both war material and logistics capacity.  As simplistic as it was, one thing it taught me was how important logistics is to sustain an attack.  More often than I'd like I'd find myself pushing forward only to find that I had to abandon some portion of my offensive in order to keep my main effort going.  Either because I was burning through my supplies or because I couldn't get everything to where it needed to go concurrently.  Damned partisans would make things even worse.

This is why gaming is so important for understanding war.  I learned more from playing that simple game than I would have just reading books.  Combining the two was the best because as I read I could relate, and as I played I could appreciate what I read.

Steve

Could you re-release it as a mobile app? I realize you wouldn't want to spend ages on it, but if the rights were available? For triple extra points either include it as an extra with an Eastern Front game bundle. For 10x points you could put it out at a slightly inflated price, and donate all the profits to Ukraine.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

 

I have to say that every time I watch something from Khodaryonok I am positively impressed.  Yeah, obviously he's on the wrong side of this war, but he is obviously intelligent and insightful into what's going on.  I'm glad he's standing on a stage instead of running the war!  Like Girkin, he explicitly states that in order to win Russians need to dispense with the crazy talk and focus on reality.  Which the host constantly tried to prevent from happening because, after all, her job is to facilitate crazy talk.  The exchange between the two over the willingness of Ukrainians to die for their country was classic. 

What is also quite interesting to see is that Khodaryonok would make a point about Ukraine and very delicately not put it into context in a way that makes Russia look bad.  For example, he said it is a reality that Ukraine can put 1,000,000 citizens under arms, but he did not point out that if Ukraine does that then Russia is likely going to have to put 2,000,000 or more under arms.  He pointed out that those soldiers will go to war willing to die for their country and that is an important component for being effective soldiers, while he avoided pointing out that Russia won't find 2,000,000 men willing to die in Ukraine.

So much subtlety.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Could you re-release it as a mobile app? I realize you wouldn't want to spend ages on it, but if the rights were available? For triple extra points either include it as an extra with an Eastern Front game bundle. For 10x points you could put it out at a slightly inflated price, and donate all the profits to Ukraine.

Not our game.  I was in Junior High School when it came out   The only link this has to Battlefront is that it might be the game that most directed me to become a wargame maker.

Fortunately for anybody that wants this classic, our buddies at Slitherine/Matrix have made an updated version available for free!  Here's the link:

https://www1.matrixgames.com/products/236/downloads/

Steve

P.S.  No, I am NOT going to ban myself for promoting someone else's game on our Forum.  Just in case anybody was wondering

[danfrodo]

32 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not our game.  I was in Junior High School when it came out   The only link this has to Battlefront is that it might be the game that most directed me to become a wargame maker.

Fortunately for anybody that wants this classic, our buddies at Slitherine/Matrix have made an updated version available for free!  Here's the link:

https://www1.matrixgames.com/products/236/downloads/

Steve

P.S.  No, I am NOT going to ban myself for promoting someone else's game on our Forum.  Just in case anybody was wondering

very cool.  But who played the original 1984 version on their Atari?  That was a really hard game to win.  I loooooved it.  Then grigsby came out same year w the epic Reforger 88.  He is guaranteed to go to heaven.  It's really funny to google these games and look at the actual screenshot images.  I have memories that are completely wrong about what the games actually looked like. 

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

 

WHAT?????   I MEAN, WHAT???? They are going to rescue them?  How?  and they announced it?  what?????????

Imagine the morale victory for UKR if they actually pulled this off.   If they announced it then I am guessing they already know something about success?? 

Boats?  Helicopters?  Land corridor?  How? 

 

Update:  according to NYT this was just the soldiers being bused out to RU territory for upcoming prisoner exchange??   It's not a rescue?  Was the above post a bad translation?

Edited May 17, 2022 by danfrodo
update

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Eons ago, when dinosaurs ruled the Earth, I used to play Grigsby's "War In Russia".  A lot.  It was an incredibly detailed game considering it was played on a computer with 16kb of memory and a 180kb 5.25" floppy.  Which, I must say, I still have.

One of the things it had was a rudimentary supply system.  It simulated both war material and logistics capacity.  As simplistic as it was, one thing it taught me was how important logistics is to sustain an attack.  More often than I'd like I'd find myself pushing forward only to find that I had to abandon some portion of my offensive in order to keep my main effort going.  Either because I was burning through my supplies or because I couldn't get everything to where it needed to go concurrently.  Damned partisans would make things even worse.

This is why gaming is so important for understanding war.  I learned more from playing that simple game than I would have just reading books.  Combining the two was the best because as I read I could relate, and as I played I could appreciate what I read.

Steve

I remember I bought a Panzer General game some years ago.  Then realized it didn't take into consideration supplies.  It was like playing checkers.

[LongLeftFlank]

M1 Tank Platoon was CM before there was CM!

[Suleyman]

Yeah to be honest even if the Russian push succeeds in Donbas’ slightly or in a major way I don’t see this ending good for them. They learned a lot of lessons so did UA forces, the future RU forces may look very different. When the war concludes I’ll be happy that no more death will happen in the region. I hope the world sticks up for other countries that get invaded too. I can name a few now but off topic and I might be public enemy # 1 on here if I do haha.

RU lost the initiative, and chose the wrong areas to attack. Kiev would have been a good feint if it was actually done as a feint,  for example: didn’t rush into it heavily but instead went in slightly with say 20K forces, farther out from Kiev, to draw strategic attention. Then the rest of their armed forces should have just directly went for Donbas’. Pull the feint back and reinforce their Southern and Eastern front. 
 

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

VII.29. A clever general, therefore, avoids an army when its spirit is keen, but attacks it when it is sluggish and inclined to return. This is the art of studying moods.

VII.30. Disciplined and calm, to await the appearance of disorder and hubbub amongst the enemy:--this is the art of retaining self-possession.

VII.31. To be near the goal while the enemy is still far from it, to wait at ease while the enemy is toiling and struggling, to be well-fed while the enemy is famished--this is the art of husbanding one's strength....

XI.18. If asked how to cope with a great host of the enemy in orderly array and on the point of marching to the attack, I should say: "Begin by seizing something which your opponent holds dear; then he will be amenable to your will."

****

As folks here know, I've been keen for UA to strike along this front since early April.

1. The best outcome of course is a relentless 'march to Azov', routing and destroying all Russian forces between Kherson and Donetsk.

2. But forcing the Russians to divert, commit and expend what's left of their mobile reaction forces (VDV, etc.), airlift and tac airpower in frantic (and likely blundering) efforts to shore up this (for them) remote and extended front could yield Ukraine a victory nearly as great, strategically speaking!

3. It would be an ideal test case for the reconstitute UA mech forces on the attack, steppelands with limited river barriers. A failure to advance as expected, for whatever reason, would not result in a significant defeat or exposure to a Russian riposte, and would provide extremely valuable learnings. At some point UA are going to have to figure out whether they can do this, and IMHO it may just as well be here.

4. It would also force the withdrawal of substantially all Russian assault forces from Azovstal in order to defend their own supply lines.

Edited May 17, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[chrisl]

22 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

M1 Tank Platoon was CM before there was CM!

Squad Leader.

I found the CMBO demo all those years ago when I was looking to see if Avalon Hill had tried to make a computer version of SL.  CM is the spiritual descendant of the Squad Leader series.  I still have the original and three "gamettes" (pre ASL) in a closet.

[ibncalb]

Russia blocking Finland and Sweden's NATO application.
 

Because they didn't support them killing Kurds.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/16/russia-finland-sweden-nato-ukraine-war

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

7 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Squad Leader.

I found the CMBO demo all those years ago when I was looking to see if Avalon Hill had tried to make a computer version of SL.  CM is the spiritual descendant of the Squad Leader series.  I still have the original and three "gamettes" (pre ASL) in a closet.

Of course, but if you ever played M1TP, it was the first video game to capture the flavour of ASL; use of terrain, fields of fire, calling in arty, etc.