How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Machor]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

How long will Erdogan resist against Finland & Sweden joining NATO? Or to phrase it better: what does he want for his agreement and will he get it?

Some expert opinions:

I believe this part of the impasse is quite solvable by easing the EU arms embargo on Turkey (e.g. by excluding sub-systems) and Sweden taking at least symbolic steps to curtail the activities of the PKK - an EU designated terrorist organization, after all.

However, there were also these news - Greece is receiving a squadron of F-35s:

Meaning, the Hellenic Air Force will soon be fielding the following:

24(?) F-35, 24 Rafale, 84 F-16V; 36 Patriot launchers

After the cancellation of Turkey's F-35 order by the US, it applied to procure 40 new-build F-16V and 80 upgrade kits, which the Biden administration cut down to only 70 upgrade kits, which will still likely get vetoed in the US Congress. As Turkey's S-400 have been mothballed, Greece will soon have air supremacy over the Aegean and Cyprus. Therefore, it's worth watching for any signals from the Congress about the F-16V upgrade kits.

Coming back to topic: No, in no way is Turkey's objection due to it acting as a 'Russian Trojan horse'.

[poesel]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think the West has a moral obligation to not only fund its war but also to fund its rebuilding after the war is over.

Yes, absolutely.

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

They need EU membership,

Yes, 10+ years down the road. Adding the Ukraine to the EU is like adding a slightly smaller and less populated Mexico to the USA (in relative terms). That is no easy task and should not be taken lightly.

Don't get me wrong - it should be done, no question. But it must be done right.

[Haiduk]

UAV group of ArmySOS volunteer fund during the battle on Siverskyi Donets . This fund is engaging in development, setup and support of Kropyva information battlefield system.

[Huba]

Nice interview with Wesley Clark. General is quite hawkish, argumenting for arming Ukraine to the teeth. 

 

[Sequoia]

On 5/11/2022 at 8:23 AM, LongLeftFlank said:

 

 

Longtime Forumites will recall that JasonC was also very insistent on the efficacy of the strategic bombing of shopping malls, particularly using scarce precision guided weapons. So as to deprive the populace of scented candles, overpriced running shoes and other essentials, thus inexorably breaking their will to resist....

 

Yeah late for the party on this, as I'm having trouble keeping up with this thread, but that's a joke, right? From what I recall of Jason, that doesn't sound like something he would say.

[fireship4]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I decided to waste a few minutes of my life to see where this author is coming from.  I checked out one of the publications he cited as running his articles, including this one, and it turns out it is an "alt-left" site that is considered to be a Russian propaganda mouthpiece:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CounterPunch

The link you provided does not substantiate the accusation of being a Russian propaganda mouthpiece.

The accusation mentioned in the link came by way of PropOrNot.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PropOrNot:

Quote

Writing in The New Yorker, Adrian Chen said that he had been previously contacted by the organization, but had chosen not to follow up with them. Looking more carefully into their methodology, he argued that PropOrNot's criteria for establishing propaganda - which included critical commentary of the United States, the European Union and NATO - were so broad that they could have included "not only Russian state-controlled media organizations, such as Russia Today, but nearly every news outlet in the world, including the Post itself" on their list.^[2]Eliot Higgins, founder of the open-source journalism website Bellingcat, referred to the methodology report as "pretty amateur" and told Chen: "I think it should have never been an article on any news site of any note."^[2]

An event mentioned in your link may have contributed to the accusation, however the outcome should be noted:

Quote

During the 2016 presidential election, CounterPunch published a piece attributed to Alice Donovan,^[11] who purported to be a freelance writer but US intelligence officials alleged to be a pseudonymous employee of the Russian government.^[12] Donovan was tracked by the FBI for nine months, as a suspected fictitious persona created by the GRU.^[12][13] In late November 2017, after CounterPunch had published several more pieces by Donovan, The Washington Post contacted Jeffrey St. Clair about her. The co-editor said that Donovan's pitches did not stand out amongst the pitches that CounterPunch received daily^[12] and began making inquiries. He asked Donovan to substantiate her identity by sending a photo of her driving license but she did not.^[12] On the same day The Washington Post article was published on Donovan, St. Clair and Frank published a piece stating that CounterPunch only ran one article by Alice Donovan during the 2016 election, which was on cyber-breaches of medical databases. Donovan was also exposed by the newsletter as a serial plagiarizer.^[11] CounterPunch removed all of the articles from their site.^[14] In a January 2018 follow-up article, St. Clair and Frank exposed a network of alleged trolls that operated a site called Inside Syria Media Center, promoting a pro-Bashar al-Assad and pro-Russian view of the Syrian Civil War. St. Clair and Frank speculated that the website was connected to the same network of trolls as Alice Donovan, which was later confirmed by the Atlantic Council and other researchers.^[15][13][14]

[EDIT: The practise of dismissing leftists or those critical of Western actions for those reasons alone, often as 'useful idiots'] does more damage to our system then it does to Russia.

Edited May 17, 2022 by fireship4

[Machor]

3 hours ago, Boche said:

The expenditure comparison for VII corps between WW2 and Desert Storm is insane.  331 days vs 4...wow.

 

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

~54 times the ammo tonnage per day, pretty much explains why the Iraqi army just went away.

While it was an eye-opener, the ammo expenditure did not really surprise me. What did surprise me was the massive increase in fuel usage, considering the US in WW2 was already a motorized force. [I am assuming the vast increase in the rations issued is due to the use of field kitchens in WW2, and not gluttony.  ]

[Battlefront.com]

Looking at images of the failed bridge crossing paints an even worse picture of it.  Worse?  You might ask, but yes worse.

On the west side of the river, just north of the crossing, is a hotel resort (now largely destroyed).  You can find it here:

48.95494513799378, 38.22276322102467

Based on some images it looks like at least 4 more loaded PMP (pontoon trucks) and one truck with a tug on it (BMK?) on it.  That's yet another river's worth of bridging likely gone from immediate use.

Other footage shows that they made it about 3km down the road to the south, about 2/3rds of the way towards Bilohorivka.  Here they lost at least 9x T-72 and 7x AFV (BMP and maybe MT-LB).  They appear to be knocked out or abandoned.

 48.56611,  38.144375

These vehicles were no doubt included in the counts that pushed the number of known destroyed to around 100.  However, I think the count might be higher because there are supposedly three other locations the advanced to that so far have not been documented.

Steve

[MSBoxer]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looking at images of the failed bridge crossing paints an even worse picture of it.

Steve, I am beginning to think that the Russians have a better chance of getting over those bridges, than you have a chance of getting over the bridges 

[fireship4]

It may be old news by now, but someone made the effort to simulate the sinking of the Moskva in Command: Modern Operations:

https://weaponsrelease.com/2022/04/18/simulating-the-sinking-of-the-moska/

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

Steve, I am beginning to think that the Russians have a better chance of getting over those bridges, than you have a chance of getting over the bridges 

Heh... fair!  I'm finding the digging around for information and piecing it together to be fun.  Much of the stuff out there is wrong, so that's what's spurred the interest.  That and I think these battles will be remembered long, long, long after the war is over.

Not to worry, I'm only touching this stuff a little now.  I just scrubbed various social media sites and I didn't find anything I don't already have so that's about it.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

The Mariupol coverage is still ambiguous and annoying.  There's a few saying Ukraine has surrendered, then a couple of sentences down say it is unclear what's going on with hundreds of troops that didn't surrender.

Sheesh.

Steve

[Suleyman]

I don't get all this Turkey talk, I'm an American born with Turkish roots so I gotta get in on this in real quick. Who is the person who decides who's a terror group and who's not? If the Turkish government is fighting an insurgency in the country that is largely opposed against, and you arm those groups, isn't it normal for them to want some payback towards the supporter of its enemy? 

Our American government, is very decisive against countries that support groups or nations we do not agree with let alone the ones we name terror groups. I personally don't care if Sweden joins NATO, nor if Finland joins NATO either. Russia will not be invading those countries any time soon. Love them (Turkey) when they send TB-2s to Ukraine, but hate them if they stand up for themselves over their interests? Double standards. 

37 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looking at images of the failed bridge crossing paints an even worse picture of it.  Worse?  You might ask, but yes worse.

On the west side of the river, just north of the crossing, is a hotel resort (now largely destroyed).  You can find it here:

48.95494513799378, 38.22276322102467

Based on some images it looks like at least 4 more loaded PMP (pontoon trucks) and one truck with a tug on it (BMK?) on it.  That's yet another river's worth of bridging likely gone from immediate use.

Other footage shows that they made it about 3km down the road to the south, about 2/3rds of the way towards Bilohorivka.  Here they lost at least 9x T-72 and 7x AFV (BMP and maybe MT-LB).  They appear to be knocked out or abandoned.

 48.56611,  38.144375

These vehicles were no doubt included in the counts that pushed the number of known destroyed to around 100.  However, I think the count might be higher because there are supposedly three other locations the advanced to that so far have not been documented.

Steve

I'm curious, were all these vehicles wiped out by artillery according to Ukrainian claims or were there airstrikes and or ambushes on the ground?

[chuckdyke]

From CNN as an outsider, I find it better than Fox News.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-17-22/h_03b8b926d3f8aa69994c715250c7dd00

 

[cesmonkey]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is typical of both publications.  Their OpEd (both of which is what you cited) contributors tend to skew left day in and out, though they have a lot of middle and even moderate right contributors.  Left is inherently cautious about war and very cautious, even paranoid, about nuclear war.  It is exactly these voices that have allowed the policy of appeasement to proceed almost unscathed over the past 8 years in particular. 

Stereotyping for a bit... the right wanted appeasement so it could make money, the left wanted appeasement because it's better than war.  When both the right and the left support a common policy, regardless of how they got there, it's pretty much a given it will be the dominant position for their government.  Which is why Russia has funded both right and left influencers.  Both work towards supporting Russia's aims even if they are clueless about it.

Steve

For a bit of a contrast:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/editorials/to-yield-to-putins-nuclear-threats-would-be-to-yield-the-free-worlds-future

and:

 

[JonS]

I don't think there is much doubt that Fox is a news channel only in the same way that fanta is an orange drink.

[Huba]

More about Russian crossing attempts for Steve @Battlefront.com

 

[fireship4]

7 minutes ago, JonS said:

Fox is a news channel only in the same way that fanta is an orange drink

Created for nazis?

[danfrodo]

Any news from the fronts for the end of day in UKR?  

Seems some very small gains by both sides, looks like the bridgeheads by UKR across the Donets east of Kharkiv are the real deal.  UKR saying nothing?

RU still pounding away to capture very little. 

And where are the UKR reserves?  We still have no idea of UKR overall plan.  Kupiansk, unhinge Izyum?  what else, I wonder?

[akd]

Editing on this makes it hard to decipher, but crazy footage:

T-80BVM

Seemingly related:

 

Edited May 18, 2022 by akd

[Huba]

9 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Any news from the fronts for the end of day in UKR?  

Seems some very small gains by both sides, looks like the bridgeheads by UKR across the Donets east of Kharkiv are the real deal.  UKR saying nothing?

RU still pounding away to capture very little. 

And where are the UKR reserves?  We still have no idea of UKR overall plan.  Kupiansk, unhinge Izyum?  what else, I wonder?

No mention of Donets bridgeheads in daily UA General Staff report. Apart from apparent Azovstal surrender, the day was relatively uneventful.

Personally I'm really looking to US Senate approving the 40B$ tomorrow, and subsequent announcement of next military support package.

[gnarly]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UAV group of ArmySOS volunteer fund during the battle on Siverskyi Donets . This fund is engaging in development, setup and support of Kropyva information battlefield system.

Strangely they are observing/viewing the same thing Steve showed.... ;D

  

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The picture I just posted is properly orientated with north at the top.  West side of the river is Russian territory, east is Ukrainian.  The majority of the destroyed vehicles are on the eastern side.  At least some of the destroyed vehicles on the western (approach) road appear to be engineering vehicles related to the bridging itself.

It seems the 8 T-72s that were deliberately sunk were the last of the rearguard force.  Here's an image that puts it all into context.  You can see the bridge and smoke.  This appears to be after the second bridge was put down but before it was sunk.

Steve

 

 

Edited May 18, 2022 by gnarly

[MSBoxer]

3 minutes ago, gnarly said:

Strangely they are observing/viewing the same thing Steve showed.... ;D

Are we sure Steve is still in the U.S.
I'm just saying the guy in the blue cap looks strangely familiar.

[Gary R Lukas]

Has anyone fighting the war come across Russians who are being killed by their own commanders or Chechen Soldiers?? The word in the U.S.A. has it that Russian Commanders and Chechens are going in after a Russian attack and killing all of the Russian wounded and stragglers, and soldiers giving up the fight. If it is true, then it seems that Putin is taking a page from Stalin and the NKVD in 1941 until the war ended. How would you like being put into a tank in 1941 and then have the Unit Commanders or the NKVD come behind you and put padlocks on all of the tank hatches, that makes it impossible to get out if your tank gets hit or even if it gets stuck in the mud.

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, Sequoia said:

 

Yeah late for the party on this, as I'm having trouble keeping up with this thread, but that's a joke, right? From what I recall of Jason, that doesn't sound like something he would say.