How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

46 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

I'll be interested to see what happens May 9 a week from now. My guess, parade footage intercut with shots of Putin standing there in 2021.

I keep wondering how big these lies can get before they pop.  Pretty big it looks like.  So “everything is going according to plan” in this “special military operation”.  That whole goat rodeo in March up North was a deliberate “feint” to support the real objective of the “Donbas”, which the RA will take in a bippy.  Those exploding factories and plant fires are all coincidence.  In fact the war is going so well that Russia is “mobilizing”, you know so there can be more troops on the victory parade.

Then you got the pro-Russian noise that is going “Ukraine is on it last legs, down to last troops”, which of course logically means “mobilize Russia”.  The Russian Foreign Minister manages to get Israel off the bench with his “Nazi-Jews” thing.

Then there is the question of “mobilize what?”  I am reaching but I cannot really find an easy comparison to another war so badly politically and strategically managed than Russia’s current one.  I mean there is one out there but this trend of doubling-down on the worst option, every-time would be comical if not for all the innocent people dying.

This is not a quagmire war, it is a lava field and Russia is determined to pull its legs out with its face.  Worse, a full on mobilization could strain the cracks in that country to breaking.

[Battlefront.com]

Yet another expert who doesn't understand Russia's limitations for fighting a "long war" on this scale.

The author makes great points about all the failures of the West in dealing with Putin in Syria (author's area of expertise).  While he readily acknowledges that the West did a very good job backing Ukraine vs. the weak/timid support of anti-Assad forces, he kinda dismisses it as not all that important in the overall equation.  Basically saying "remember, Putin had problems at the beginning of Syria too, but it worked out for him in the end".  As if the two situations are even remotely related!  That's like saying, remember how he stubbed his toe 6 years ago and he came back from it, when today we're seeing his severed leg on the ground.

Skipping over the obvious economic and military reasons why Russia can't play the "long war" like it could with Syria (scale, for one thing), there's Russia's history of getting the West to fall apart and shift to appeasement.  He's saying this as if the West cared as much about the outcome in Syria as it does in Ukraine.  This is wrong.  There's indications the West does care about Ukraine the way it did not care about Syria.  That's a major difference.  Then there's the issue that the West's militaries are not bogged down in other wars right now which provides them with the opportunity to focus on Russia (cynically we could say it gives them a reason to exist).  So there's that difference as well.  And finally, the West has already invested huge amounts of political and economic capital into Ukraine to help it defeat Russia, which is exactly what it did not do for Syria.

Look, I'm just a guy who makes games and thinks about this stuff in his free time.  I shouldn't be able to make so many counter points to an expert so easily.  It depresses me that I can.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/04/27/russia-putin-next-move-syria-00028041

[Battlefront.com]

This is from a trusted personal source of mine in Kyiv regarding the strike.  He has access to a bit more than open source info, but nothing too deep from what I know.  Here's what he was able to piece together from multiple sources:

1. Ukraine drove howitzers within range of the village Zabavne where Russia thought was safely out of range from artillery.
2. Ukraine fired 152mm artillery controlled by a UAV observer back and forth over the Russian positions. One report said the US M777 howitzers were used, but no confirmation on that
3. As many as 100 2nd Army staff officers and subordinate commanders were killed or injured.  One official estimate put the killed at 1/2 (c.50)
4. Multiple reports state that General Valery Gerasimov was amongst the wounded.  Russian media said he either wasn’t there or that he was but he wasn’t injured. Russian opposition media said he got a flesh wound in the shin.
5. International plane watchers noted a flurry of Kremlin-assigned Tu-154 senior official passenger jets depart from Moscow, land at Belgorod, and then fly back to Moscow.  Speculation is they were dispatched to evaculate Gerasimov and his staff.
6. Major General Aleksei Simenov is amongst the reported killed.  Some sources say he was in charge of the entire Russian Army's EW operations, which would include operational security everywhere (i.e. not just Donbas).
7. Had Simenov lived he might have had a "heart attack" soon after as it is pretty clear Ukraine used intercepted communications to know of and plan for this attack.

No mention of a precision strike, but that doesn't surprise me since it appears Ukraine is keeping that very secret (if it happened).  Seeing as Ukraine has managed to keep all of us in the dark about operations against targets inside of Russia, it does seem plausible that they could keep this sort of detail behind closed doors.

Steve

[Los]

It's getting to be the part of Crimson Tide where the president dies and a new more unstable hard liner takes over....

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yet another expert who doesn't understand Russia's limitations for fighting a "long war" on this scale.

The author makes great points about all the failures of the West in dealing with Putin in Syria (author's area of expertise).  While he readily acknowledges that the West did a very good job backing Ukraine vs. the weak/timid support of anti-Assad forces, he kinda dismisses it as not all that important in the overall equation.  Basically saying "remember, Putin had problems at the beginning of Syria too, but it worked out for him in the end".  As if the two situations are even remotely related!  That's like saying, remember how he stubbed his toe 6 years ago and he came back from it, when today we're seeing his severed leg on the ground.

Skipping over the obvious economic and military reasons why Russia can't play the "long war" like it could with Syria (scale, for one thing), there's Russia's history of getting the West to fall apart and shift to appeasement.  He's saying this as if the West cared as much about the outcome in Syria as it does in Ukraine.  This is wrong.  There's indications the West does care about Ukraine the way it did not care about Syria.  That's a major difference.  Then there's the issue that the West's militaries are not bogged down in other wars right now which provides them with the opportunity to focus on Russia (cynically we could say it gives them a reason to exist).  So there's that difference as well.  And finally, the West has already invested huge amounts of political and economic capital into Ukraine to help it defeat Russia, which is exactly what it did not do for Syria.

Look, I'm just a guy who makes games and thinks about this stuff in his free time.  I shouldn't be able to make so many counter points to an expert so easily.  It depresses me that I can.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/04/27/russia-putin-next-move-syria-00028041

what utter b--ls--t.  Syria has nearly zero comparison to what is happening now.  In Syria, we couldn't even get our aid to the right folks, it was all ending up in the arms of ISIS. 

I really want to get a gig as one of these clowns so I can be paid to say utterly ludicrous things.

Edited May 2, 2022 by danfrodo
added

[Huba]

New map is up:

 

[BeondTheGrave]

24 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

what utter b--ls--t.  Syria has nearly zero comparison to what is happening now.  In Syria, we couldn't even get our aid to the right folks, it was all ending up in the arms of ISIS. 

I really want to get a gig as one of these clowns so I can be paid to say utterly ludicrous things.

I think this problem is a lot more common than anyone realizes, and it really crosses the lines of publication, media, party, ideology, and experience. My own personal theory, but I suspect a lot of this kind of analysis comes from the 'military studies' 'peace studies' 'international relations' crowd. When you try to flatten every war into a mathematical theory or a repetable and generalizable framework you get this kind of thinking. "Well Russia did it before, why not now." The military historical approach gives you rather the art side of it. War is filled with funny things called people, and people do unpredictable and often stupid things. No to events will ever be the same because if history teaches us one thing, its that human stupidity is truly limitless. But still the numbers scholars will sit there with their calculators, quote Clausewitz, and the proceed to ignore exactly what he said on this issue. "# of tanks x # of Aircraft + # of drones / enemy GDP....."

Edited May 2, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[MSBoxer]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is from a trusted personal source of mine in Kyiv regarding the strike.  He has access to a bit more than open source info, but nothing too deep from what I know.  Here's what he was able to piece together from multiple sources:

1. Ukraine drove howitzers within range of the village Zabavne where Russia thought was safely out of range from artillery.
2. Ukraine fired 152mm artillery controlled by a UAV observer back and forth over the Russian positions. One report said the US M777 howitzers were used, but no confirmation on that
3. As many as 100 2nd Army staff officers and subordinate commanders were killed or injured.  One official estimate put the killed at 1/2 (c.50)
4. Multiple reports state that General Valery Gerasimov was amongst the wounded.  Russian media said he either wasn’t there or that he was but he wasn’t injured. Russian opposition media said he got a flesh wound in the shin.
5. International plane watchers noted a flurry of Kremlin-assigned Tu-154 senior official passenger jets depart from Moscow, land at Belgorod, and then fly back to Moscow.  Speculation is they were dispatched to evaculate Gerasimov and his staff.
6. Major General Aleksei Simenov is amongst the reported killed.  Some sources say he was in charge of the entire Russian Army's EW operations, which would include operational security everywhere (i.e. not just Donbas).
7. Had Simenov lived he might have had a "heart attack" soon after as it is pretty clear Ukraine used intercepted communications to know of and plan for this attack.

No mention of a precision strike, but that doesn't surprise me since it appears Ukraine is keeping that very secret (if it happened).  Seeing as Ukraine has managed to keep all of us in the dark about operations against targets inside of Russia, it does seem plausible that they could keep this sort of detail behind closed doors.

Steve

With all the conflicting news about Gerasimov, I have wondered would it not be better for him to arrive back in Moscow all safe and sound so that he could suffer a heart attack or other cause that seems to be on the rise?

It would not take much to find an individual of similar height and slap a spare uniform on him.  Of course this is all boozy speculation on my part, odds are a new image will show up with him playing poker with Putin tomorrow.

Edited May 2, 2022 by MSBoxer

[Vanir Ausf B]

Quote

Taiwan's Defence Ministry said on Monday it was considering alternative weapons options after the United States informed it that the delivery of an artillery system would be delayed due to a "crowded" production line.

Taiwan's Defence Ministry said, however, that because of a "crowded" production line for the M109A6, the U.S. had told it this would not happen until 2026 at the earliest.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-considers-alternatives-after-us-informs-howitzer-delay-2022-05-02/

Edited May 2, 2022 by Vanir Ausf B

[danfrodo]

20 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

I think this problem is a lot more common than anyone realizes, and it really crosses the lines of publication, media, party, ideology, and experience. My own personal theory, but I suspect a lot of this kind of analysis comes from the 'military studies' 'peace studies' 'international relations' crowd. When you try to flatten every war into a mathematical theory or a repetable and generalizable framework you get this kind of thinking. "Well Russia did it before, why not now." The military historical approach gives you rather the art side of it. War is filled with funny things called people, and people do unpredictable and often stupid things. No to events will ever be the same because if history teaches us one thing, its that human stupidity is truly limitless. But still the numbers scholars will sit there with their calculators, quote Clausewitz, and the proceed to ignore exactly what he said on this issue. "# of tanks x # of Aircraft + # of drones / enemy GDP....."

Well said, BeonTheGrave. 

The closest comparison I can think of to this is Barbarossa -- most excellent wonderful plan on paper.  All that's required is that your assumptions of quick enemy collapse come true.  Make sure to not think through the consequences of what happens w/o quick enemy collapse.  And most importantly, double down and double down and double down militarily in a lost war while continually moving the goalposts and spouting out ever more ridiculous propaganda. 

[Huba]

Allegedly something is going boom in Belgorod again:

 

[Fenris]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is from a trusted personal source of mine in Kyiv regarding the strike.  He has access to a bit more than open source info, but nothing too deep from what I know.  Here's what he was able to piece together from multiple sources:

1. Ukraine drove howitzers within range of the village Zabavne where Russia thought was safely out of range from artillery.
2. Ukraine fired 152mm artillery controlled by a UAV observer back and forth over the Russian positions. One report said the US M777 howitzers were used, but no confirmation on that
3. As many as 100 2nd Army staff officers and subordinate commanders were killed or injured.  One official estimate put the killed at 1/2 (c.50)
4. Multiple reports state that General Valery Gerasimov was amongst the wounded.  Russian media said he either wasn’t there or that he was but he wasn’t injured. Russian opposition media said he got a flesh wound in the shin.
5. International plane watchers noted a flurry of Kremlin-assigned Tu-154 senior official passenger jets depart from Moscow, land at Belgorod, and then fly back to Moscow.  Speculation is they were dispatched to evaculate Gerasimov and his staff.
6. Major General Aleksei Simenov is amongst the reported killed.  Some sources say he was in charge of the entire Russian Army's EW operations, which would include operational security everywhere (i.e. not just Donbas).
7. Had Simenov lived he might have had a "heart attack" soon after as it is pretty clear Ukraine used intercepted communications to know of and plan for this attack.

No mention of a precision strike, but that doesn't surprise me since it appears Ukraine is keeping that very secret (if it happened).  Seeing as Ukraine has managed to keep all of us in the dark about operations against targets inside of Russia, it does seem plausible that they could keep this sort of detail behind closed doors.

Steve

That's some pretty amazing work on the part of the UKR forces.  Have to admire their ability to repeatedly capitalise on the enemy's failings and really put the hurt on.

[Battlefront.com]

Apparently today was not a good day for the Russian unmanned vehicles.  According to one Ukrainian source (a generally reliable one), Russia lost 7x Olran-10 and 1x Forpost (an Israeli type)

https://m.censor.net/en/news/3338519/during_may_2_1_forpost_drone_and_7_orlans_of_russian_occupants_destroyed_air_forces

[danfrodo]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Apparently today was not a good day for the Russian unmanned vehicles.  According to one Ukrainian source (a generally reliable one), Russia lost 7x Olran-10 and 1x Forpost (an Israeli type)

https://m.censor.net/en/news/3338519/during_may_2_1_forpost_drone_and_7_orlans_of_russian_occupants_destroyed_air_forces

sounds like me on Black Sea.  My drones seem to be target practice for RU AA folks.

[sross112]

Oryx has posted the 600th tank loss for the RA today. That makes it 50% of the general assumption of tanks for the 120 BTG's thought to have taken part in the invasion. Only losing half their tanks in a little over 2 months is apparently acceptable losses as everything is going as planned.  

Tanks (600, of which destroyed: 312, damaged: 17, abandoned: 49, captured: 222)

[akd]

Part 1 of a look into who is fighting for Russian in Z operation:

 

[Kinophile]

So wait - there were two UKR attacks on two large RUS gatherings of officers on the Kherson front and on the Izyum?

Or am I confused?

Edited May 2, 2022 by Kinophile

[chuckdyke]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I almost went for it. 

Be a little more modest and purchase a universal carrier. It was extremely useful on the farm. 

[LongLeftFlank]

7 hours ago, Huba said:

So it seems that Russians might be able to more or less reach the Donets along it's whole length north of Sloviansk. I can't imagine them trying to cross the river in face of UA resistance, but it gives them a relatively safe, very defendable continuous line of defence between Kreminna and Izium. With that secured, I'd think that most of the forces will be shifted to Izium to continue the push from there. Will they be able to do it, or are those units already too depleted to make a difference there? 

Yes, I think we're both on the same page that the Russians are

1. trying to 'secure' a new frontier along the Seviersky Donets and southern Dnipr and then

2. make enough crazy nuke noises that Western liberals poop their pants and pressure UKR to accept a cease fire and 'referendum'.

Here's Ed Lutttwak (no liberal!), calling for 'plebiscites':

https://unherd.com/2022/04/how-the-ukraine-war-must-end/

 

...And fine, all that certainly doesn't suit our Ukrainian friends here at all, but while sending you lots of lethal stuff is one thing, I must tell you there is very little stomach in the West for joining you in the 'our survival is on the line' category. Very few of my acquaintances pay the war much mind even though they know who the 'good guys' are.

So the pressure to accept a cease fire and 'end this' (i.e. get it out of the news and get back to doomscrolling about the slow rot of our various welfare states) will be substantial.

Also, a lot of the world (Asia, MEA) sees Ukraine as a US proxy, a stick the Empire is using to beat Russia. They would firmly back a cease fire, having no interest in a prostrate Russia.

This is why I continue to believe that time is NOT on Ukraine's side strategically, the way others here believe, and that a strong, early counteroffensive toward the Azov to retake the land bridge and place half the Russian invaders en prise is imperative, in spite of the military risks.

Izyum area is not a dagger pointed at the heart of Ukraine, but that long Kherson-Zaporizhe-Donetsk front *definitely* is. You simply cannot leave that in place, but you can't retake it without firm Western backing, intel, etc.

And the tide of that backing will ebb astoundingly fast once the Russians call for 'cease fire and negotiations'.  Nobody trusts them, fine, but believe me, the West will always go for the 'negotiated' way out and let the Ukrainians live with the consequences.  Ask the Koreans.

One man's opinion, and I guess time will tell.

Edited May 3, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Part 1 of a look into who is fighting for Russian in Z operation:

 

I'm a big Kamil fan, as you know, but just contrast this to the nationalist fantasy world Strelkov lives in!

....mobilise the gigantic Russian nation, gather the Russian land, 'hang' anyone there who doesn't accept their Russianness, blah blah.

And resettle that 'Russian land' with... whom exactly?

Edited May 3, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[danfrodo]

17 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yes, I think we're both on the same page that the Russians are

1. trying to 'secure' a new frontier along the Seviersky Donets and southern Dnipr and then

2. make enough crazy nuke noises that Western liberals poop their pants and pressure UKR to accept a cease fire and 'referendum'.

Here's Ed Lutttwak (no liberal!), calling for 'plebiscites':

https://unherd.com/2022/04/how-the-ukraine-war-must-end/

 

...And fine, all that certainly doesn't suit our Ukrainian friends here at all, but while sending you lots of lethal stuff is one thing, I must tell you there is very little stomach in the West for joining you in the 'our survival is on the line' category. Very few of my acquaintances pay the war much mind even though they know who the 'good guys' are.

So the pressure to accept a cease fire and 'end this' (i.e. get it out of the news and get back to doomscrolling about the slow rot of our various welfare states) will be substantial.

Also, a lot of the world (Asia, MEA) sees Ukraine as a US proxy, a stick the Empire is using to beat Russia. They would firmly back a cease fire, having no interest in a prostrate Russia.

This is why I continue to believe that time is NOT on Ukraine's side strategically, the way others here believe, and that a strong, early counteroffensive toward the Azov to retake the land bridge and place half the Russian invaders en prise is imperative, in spite of the military risks.

Izyum area isn't a dagger pointed at the heart of Ukraine, but Kherson-Mariupol definitely is. You simply cannot leave that in place, but you can't retake it without Western backing. And the tide of that backing will ebb fast once the Russians call for 'cease fire and negotiations'.

One man's opinion, and I guess time will tell.

Hey LongLeft, I generally agree w your analysis here.  Except that it aint liberals who are the problem in the west when it comes to supporting democracy & freedom.  Biden & Obama haven't been kissing Putin's ass, that other feller and his enablers are the ones doing that.  I am sure there's some lefties calling for no war at all cost.  There's been a daily peace protest by a bunch of old hippies in front of the county courthouse in my town for years now, and I saw them the other day w signs about Ukraine, wanting to negotiate -- as if that's an option!  But those lefties are the fringe, not the mainstream.

So how about you think before you throw around these outdated tropes?  It's not the lefties that were trying to destroy NATO, wreck western partnerships,  and empower Putin for four recent long years.  The most popular nightly news commentary show on TV is so pro-Putin it'd be banned on this forum -- and its viewers are all righties, not lefties.

But overall, keep up the good work, I do really like your posts.

[LongLeftFlank]

5 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Hey LongLeft, I generally agree w your analysis here.  Except that it aint liberals who are the problem in the west when it comes to supporting democracy & freedom.  Biden & Obama haven't been kissing Putin's ass, that other feller and his enablers are the ones doing that.  I am sure there's some lefties calling for no war at all cost.  There's been a daily peace protest by a bunch of old hippies in front of the county courthouse in my town for years now, and I saw them the other day w signs about Ukraine, wanting to negotiate -- as if that's an option!  But those lefties are the fringe, not the mainstream.

So how about you think before you throw around these outdated tropes?  It's not the lefties that were trying to destroy NATO, wreck western partnerships,  and empower Putin for four recent long years.  The most popular nightly news commentary show on TV is so pro-Putin it'd be banned on this forum -- and its viewers are all righties, not lefties.

But overall, keep up the good work, I do really like your posts.

No, you're quite right to correct: I didn't mean 'liberals' in the American political sense (i.e. Democratic party).

And I really don't want to go down that American political rathole. Most of us outside the US don't give a rats about a thing Fox or MSNBC has to say.

...As I edited to add, Luttwak is no liberal, but all those Big Brained Pragmatic Strategic types would also readily rationalise an easy way out.

Edited May 3, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[danfrodo]

No problem, LLF, you da man.  Keep posting.  I appreciate the thought that goes into your posts and usually learn something.  Sorry I misunderstood your meaning.

I actually have the same fears as you, that the west will sell out Ukraine, though I think because of economic pressure more than anything else.

[akd]

 “Big-brained”…

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Crap, shut this down right now FFS!

I'm sorry, I will never use the word Liberals again.....