How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Ts4EVER]

1 minute ago, BlackMoria said:

Absolutely a consideration.   Today, depending where the conflict is, you have got to assume driving your military element along a road or through some town, that somebody is using their smart phone to record you and that info is getting someplace you aren't going  to like it going.   That said, using same social media, your military can shoot the same video or photo and attribute it to another location or doctor any geo location clues in the photo or video.  With that much information coming in, it will be trying for enemy intel people to sort the wheat from the chaff so to speak.

Yeah, basically generating enough "white noise" to drown out the truth.

[Der Zeitgeist]

19 minutes ago, Probus said:

This may be a bit naughty, but I think Ukraine should strike Moskow during the parade. Not a serious strike. Just enough to get the air raid sirens going.   

I can't figure out if Putin wants to go all in or cut his losses. 

This entire event must be a huge headache in terms of security. Not just about actual attacks or assasination attempts, but also simple incidents like protests, provocative banners or flags, everything that could lead to bad pictures on TV.

[TheVulture]

16 minutes ago, womble said:

I think the British media might be a bit optimistic on this one. Or at least "shading" the news. While the 56th AC might be equipped in the future (so "will be equipped" isn't quite a fib) with Dark Eagle, it seems unlikely they are currently equipped with it. Static testing of the rocket booster was only commenced in October last year... and according to Wikipedia, the Army "hopes" to begin live fire testing this year.

Now, maybe they're gonna live fire test it on a live combat range... but I kinda doubt it...  And it'd be a miracle delivery, so far ahead of schedule, for a high tech system that, IIRC, was suffering quite a lot from development issues.

I've not actually seen any British media reporting this, so it might just be Russian hyperbole for domestic consumption with people who aren't going to know (or care) what British media have actually said. Or it might just be one fringe fruitloop somewhere with as much credibility as the claims that Russia is going to drown the UK with a 500m radioactive tidal wave. There's bound to be at least some idiots publishing stuff that could be classed as "British media" (even ignoring Russia trolls).

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Well, so much for that Sviatohirsk bridge....

https://www.diepresse.com/6133679/strategie-der-verbrannten-erde-erst-wenn-alles-zerstoert-ist-ruecken-die-truppen-vor

But come on, I mean it's a lovely 500 year old monastery and all that -- but doesn't the CM gamer in you kind of want to fight that map?  Shades of Cassino!

 

 

Looks like a different bridge: single columns in the intact picture and double columns in the collapsed picture.  

[sross112]

21 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Now that we have an update on the Nazi situation in Ukraine, does anyone have an update on the birds that Ukraine turned into bioweapons?

Or was that propaganda so silly that even Russia decided to drop it?

 

Silly propaganda? Ha! Here is irrefutable evidence!! This picture shows the UA conducting pre-flight inspections on their tac-bomber model. The soldier is from the 93rd Brigade so that explains their recent advances north of Kharkiv. The birds! The birds are pushing the RA back!!

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Bearstronaut said:

If you don’t have someone on the mission who speaks the language then you are SOL. There’s other things you can do but I can’t really say what.

Going to be a fast parsing of every university in the western world for some Buryat speakers who would like green cards or equivalent, and to continue their educations at government expense if they just take this little sabbatical to Warsaw...

[FancyCat]

Not just white noise, you also need the ability to transfer the data to where it can be used. Certainly the lack of land-air cooperation we see with Russian forces speaks to that.

If I were the U.S, I would toss some funding into hiring some of these OSINT twitter people. Admittedly many of these orgs like Inform Napalm and Bellingcat have funding from U.S gov orgs.

Tho maybe the U.S has better people and knows this stuff already? Who knows.

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

A step forward, for a change. Hopefully more will follow:

 

Its like getting blood out of a stone.

Or German politicians out of Russian pockets.

[AlsatianFelix]

4 hours ago, c3k said:

In another area, discussing Ukraine's strategic options, I posted this:

 

In fact, push towards Melitopol is my preferred. 

1. Avoids Mariopul...for now.

2. Threatens Kherson concentration of forces.

3. Cuts land bridge

4. Threatens Crimea.

As part of that push, cut the LOCs to Crimea at Kerch.

Russia's response would be to either evacuate Kherson, if they react quickly enough (if Ukraine can cut to the coast), or rush forces from the east to break the Ukrainian coastal penetration.

THAT would then allow another Ukrainian push near Mariopul...bagging the rescue/reinforcements between the two Ukrainian envelopments.

Yeah, the enemy gets a vote, too.  

 

Ukraine is countering the Russian attack from Izyum. As long as the Russian forces are concentrated there, they are weak elsewhere.

The land bridge is a long front with a lot of opportunities. 

Moving south to the Sea of Azov, through or near Melitopol, will cut the LOCs of any Russian forces west of that point (especially Kherson). Cutting the Kerch bridge will isolate that zone completely. (Physically dropping the Kerch bridge and then interdicting any supplies being shipped or flown into Crimea.)

The reaction from Russia will have to be to remove any Ukrainian corridor cutting down to the Sea of Azov. Force to the west of the corridor (Kherson) will be needed to attack the corridor from their side, while other forces will attack from the east.

Meantime, if Ukraine can maintain that corridor and attacking the Kerch strait via long-range fires, Crimea and all the forces near Kherson will whither on the vine.

1. Finish push E/NE out of Kharkiv. Put Vovchans'k-Dvorichna road under interdiction. Threaten Kupiansk. Put Izyum on rationed ammo supplies. Take advantage of interior lines and shift fronts.

2. Mechanized counter attack S out of Zaporizhzhia to Tokmak to threaten both Melitopol and Berdyansk.

3. Mutually supporting drives down the Vasylivka-Melitopol and Tokmak-Melitopol corridors. Look for battle of annihilation.

4. If still have momentum after that, bag Kherson.

In general, this first threatens everything Ru gained in Donbas which they have to hold first. Ru will be tempted to withdraw into Kherson from Melitopol in light of their political aims to declare a Kherson Republic/annexation. Ukrainian goal is not to comply with Ru's desired political lines, but to kill as many Ru assets as possible and keep the battle of annihilation going. Don't have to liberate everything on first strategic counter offensive. Bleed them where you can bleed them the most.

I feel monumentally silly and naive for all that in the face of reality, but you're dangling a baited hook in front of me and I'm a fish.

[Der Zeitgeist]

 

6 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Its like getting blood out of a stone.

Or German politicians out of Russian pockets.

It's like I wrote back in April:

With Germany, all it takes is to keep the pressure up and fuel our fear of the "Alleingang", then it will fall in line.

 

 

 

[akd]

30 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

This entire event must be a huge headache in terms of security. Not just about actual attacks or assasination attempts, but also simple incidents like protests, provocative banners or flags, everything that could lead to bad pictures on TV.

There probably more security / government people at these events than regular citizens, and you can’t just show up.  Also, no doubt the live feeds will be on significant delay.

[kohlenklau]

43 minutes ago, Probus said:

This may be a bit naughty, but I think Ukraine should strike Moskow during the parade. Not a serious strike. Just enough to get the air raid sirens going.  

Good idea Greg. Like a Doolittle raid to bolster Ukrainian morale (extra bolstered?) and cause another shock to the enemy. "Call me Vladimir Meyer if they ever bomb Moscow!" Maybe UAF are already working out the plan. "I think I will stay home for this year's Victory parade because of...Covid...yes! Covid. Not UAV concerns..."

An odd observation, because I am odd I guess, is that nobody is blowing themselves up. No suicide bombers on either side. Kind of refreshing. Although definitely lots of unknown and never might be known Alamo sacrifices for the yellow-blue teams.

Yesterday my wife and I had a FedEx truck pass us. It went by in the left lane and I noticed a smashed passenger side window up by the cab. Then my wife noted how dirty it was. Hmmmm. I wonder how long we might wait to see Russians avenge their coming loss by coming to the US to blow up Americans. Hollywood movie plot I think already done. 

Slava Ukraine

[akd]

18 minutes ago, sross112 said:

 

Silly propaganda? Ha! Here is irrefutable evidence!! This picture shows the UA conducting pre-flight inspections on their tac-bomber model. The soldier is from the 93rd Brigade so that explains their recent advances north of Kharkiv. The birds! The birds are pushing the RA back!!

Strike underway:

 

[TheVulture]

Good, but long (50 minutes) video by Perun on Russian nuclear doctrine and why he thinks it's a bluff. (Perun is the guy who had some good videos linked here on Russian logistics a few weeks back).

 

[Harmon Rabb]

 

American volunteers in Ukraine have a new BMP courtesy of the Russian military.

Edited May 3, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Huba]

As I understand, the funds have to be approved by Congress. Could anyone from US side of the pond comment on this? Are there any risks/ expected delays regarding the funds? 

 

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Now that we have an update on the Nazi situation in Ukraine, does anyone have an update on the birds that Ukraine turned into bioweapons?

Or was that propaganda so silly that even Russia decided to drop it?

Well, Mr Rabb, this is not crazy after all.  I've been following the intrepid undercover investigators who have blown this whole thing wide open:  https://birdsarentreal.com/

Turns out all the birds died out some years ago and have been replaced by robots.  Given that truth, then why is it not plausible some of the robot birds have been repurposed as weapons systems?  Duh!  Open your eyes, CM forum, the truth is all around you if you just have the sense to use the internet, and the courage to face the facts!  I've done the research, and I know this is all true -- would they make shirts to sell if they weren't telling the truth?  -- of course not!

Bird Truthers unite! 

And now the MSM tries to explain away the truth by calling the conspiracy a hoax, a parody.  Clearly some double reverse psychology psy-ops by the CIA and Putin and George Soros, all in cahouts. 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/14/the-lunacy-is-getting-more-intense-how-birds-arent-real-took-on-the-conspiracy-theorists

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/birds-arent-real-origin-60-minutes-2022-05-01/

 

 

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Well, Mr Rabb, this is not crazy after all.  I've been following the intrepid undercover investigators who have blown this whole thing wide open:  https://birdsarentreal.com/

Turns out all the birds died out some years ago and have been replaced by robots.  Given that truth, then why is it not plausible some of the robot birds have been repurposed as weapons systems?  Duh!  Open your eyes, CM forum, the truth is all around you if you just have the sense to use the internet, and the courage to face the facts!  I've done the research, and I know this is all true -- would they make shirts to sell if they weren't telling the truth?  -- of course not!

Bird Truthers unite! 

And now the MSM tries to explain away the truth by calling the conspiracy a hoax, a parody.  Clearly some double reverse psychology psy-ops by the CIA and Putin and George Soros, all in cahouts. 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/14/the-lunacy-is-getting-more-intense-how-birds-arent-real-took-on-the-conspiracy-theorists

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/birds-arent-real-origin-60-minutes-2022-05-01/

 

 

well I just want to know when will we see birds in CM!  Clearly they are required.

[danfrodo]

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

As I understand, the funds have to be approved by Congress. Could anyone from US side of the pond comment on this? Are there any risks/ expected delays regarding the funds? 

 

Swift approval is expected according to reporters covering this.  There's wide bipartisan support.  The bleeding heart lefties and the Trumpers nearly all agree, along w all the folks in the middle.  My peace and love and rainbows wife says she'd shoot Putin the head (she's never shot a gun) -- Putin certainly knows how to attract a gal.  So I think will go fast.

[billbindc]

17 minutes ago, Huba said:

As I understand, the funds have to be approved by Congress. Could anyone from US side of the pond comment on this? Are there any risks/ expected delays regarding the funds? 

 

The funds may be tweaked a bit but it's vanishingly unlikely that Ukraine doesn't get this money.

[riptides]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Now that we have an update on the Nazi situation in Ukraine, does anyone have an update on the birds that Ukraine turned into bioweapons?

Or was that propaganda so silly that even Russia decided to drop it?

https://birdsarentreal.com/

 

Don'tcha know that Birds are already government controlled robots.

[akd]

Looks like Ukraine is now systematically dismantling the Russian comms and defenses on Zmenii Island:

 

[billbindc]

58 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Good, but long (50 minutes) video by Perun on Russian nuclear doctrine and why he thinks it's a bluff. (Perun is the guy who had some good videos linked here on Russian logistics a few weeks back).

 

This is that rare thing; a quite thorough explanation of doctrine, history and practical experience. Thanks. 

[Haiduk]

Who tracks for units involved on Izium axis, there is new unit appeared - 56th air-assault regiment of 7th air-assault division (mountain). This regiment (whe it was a brigade) recently was dislocated in Kamyshyn, but since it was deployed in the regiment in 2021, it was moved to Feodosia, occupied Crimea and sibourdinated to 7th division.

This guy from 56th regiment was killed 28th of April. Fresh one. 

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

NATOs military-industrial complex slowly starts to kick-in: