How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Taranis]

51 minutes ago, kraze said:

Guess if you already started digging - you gotta keep digging deeper

russians now directly accuse Israel of supporting neonazis

Synagogue in Bobruisk (Belarus) was vandalised with "Z" letters  
https://t.me/mkbelarus/24798

Edited May 3, 2022 by Taranis

[Huba]

A step forward, for a change. Hopefully more will follow:

 

[kraze]

22 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Synagogue in Bobruisk (Belarus) was vandalised with "Z" letters  
https://t.me/mkbelarus/24798

As discussed before to a russian the term "nazi" doesn't mean what it means to the rest of the world. So of course gullible people in countries yet to be invaded were like "if Russia screams about nazis on every corner - are there really nazis in $victim_country_name$?"

But to russians a "nazi" is literally anyone who refuses to submit to russian toilet-looting master race. And Russia is doing its best to make sure everybody knows that now.

[Haiduk]

Some more footage of 79th air-assault brigade, Yampil' or vicinity, probably previous days

Two destroyed BMPs

Captured BMP-2 with "O" marking and gears of probably killed Russian soldiers. Chevrons of units of 90th Guard tank division of Central military district

Edited May 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[LongLeftFlank]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Some more footage of 79th air-assault brigade, Yampil' or vicinity, probably previous days

Two destroyed BMPs

Captured BMP-2 with "O" marking and gears of probably killed Russian soldiers. Chevrons of units of 90th Guard tank division of Central military district

This is that Spetsnaz unit that got whacked, right?

Unbelievable. Even their super elite рейдовики won't be parted from their zinc coffins!

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, c3k said:

The reaction from Russia will have to be to remove any Ukrainian corridor cutting down to the Sea of Azov. Force to the west of the corridor (Kherson) will be needed to attack the corridor from their side, while other forces will attack from the east.

Nailed it.

I choose to attack places he must hasten to defend.

- some old Chinese guy

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

This is that Spetsnaz unit that got whacked, right?

Unbelievable. Even their super elite рейдовики won't be parted from their zinc coffins!

No, elements of 90th tank division, Spetstaz was on photo in your post

[Haiduk]

https://inf.news/en/military/3ffe50c1ae6059ddd38c4adb8fb15621.html

[Haiduk]

Not only Orlans. Downed Russian UAVs:

Zala 421-16e5G. Operative-tactical class. Range 1200 km (automomous), 100 km (guided), 12 hrs of endurance, 3600 m ceiling

...and Takhion. Tactical class mostly for artillery targeting or radio relaying. 40 km range, 2 hrs of flight, 4000 m ceiling

Edited May 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[Bearstronaut]

9 hours ago, Machor said:

Russian Signals using Buryat as 'poor man's Navajo' - are the SIGINT pros on the Forum @Bearstronaut able to divulge how a modern military would counter this?

 

If you don’t have someone on the mission who speaks the language then you are SOL. There’s other things you can do but I can’t really say what.

Edited May 3, 2022 by Bearstronaut

[Huba]

nvm

Edited May 3, 2022 by Huba

[Vacillator]

9 hours ago, sross112 said:

I'm with Steve that I don't think the US will stop support for a long time. The old eastern bloc nations will also continue support for however long they have to along with Sweden and Finland. I'm sure Canada and Australia will do what they can as well, but just the eastern bloc nations and the US can keep the UA equipped and going on their own for a long time. 

And your list of supporters may be missing one or two other countries?

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile @akd

Mayor of reserve Valeryi Statilko. Killeld 24th of April in Sulyhivka, Izium axis, during mortar shelling. 60-years veteran of VDV, enlisted to the war as volunteer on 12th of April in Omsk. Looks like he had a time about a week in Ukraine before death. His military career has stared in 1979, when he was conscripted to VDV, then he graduated as lieutenant of Omsk command college and was appoined as commander of recon platoon of 4th separate guard recon battalion in GSFG. After USSR was collapsed he served mostly in VDV training units like instructor. Participated in Russian operation in Kosovo in 2000-2001. Retired in 2004 in the rank of mayor. Since 2017 worked as mentor-officer in Omsk military cadet corps.

Typical tough Soviet-ideology follower. Many veterans of GSFG and other European groups have fanatical moods about USSR 2.0. and ready to fight for this idea again

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

This looks like important development, allowing regular army units to be taken out of line:

 

Heh... Good morning, mr.Horowitz . This law was passed two months ago. Many TD units already moved to the eastern and northern regions. 

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Heh... Good morning, mr.Horowitz . This law was passed two months ago. Many TD units already moved to the eastern and northern regions. 

Out of my newsstream he goes, this is silly. 

[LongLeftFlank]

On 5/1/2022 at 4:14 PM, Combatintman said:

The bridge near the monastery, according to your other quoted graphic, remains intact and is a Class 60 plus bridge.  The Twitter image is confusing to the untrained eye because of the angle at which it is taken so the "I don't think it its intended for driving" comment is what I would politely call 'questionable.'  The confusion is due to the road deck of the bridge being obscured by the foreground bridge railing.

Personally I think you're trying to take the Lord of the Rings thing (Orcs and caves) too far with this one.  It is a difficult river crossing in a place the Russians don't have to assault if the target is Slovyansk because there are already BTGs that can get there from positions west of that crossing.  Sure they could drive at it with the intent of trapping units that might be rattling around the Oleksandrivka area but there was some reporting a few days back that suggested that Ukraine's 57 Motorised Brigade, which had been previously consistently reported there, had already withdrawn.

Well, so much for that Sviatohirsk bridge....

https://www.diepresse.com/6133679/strategie-der-verbrannten-erde-erst-wenn-alles-zerstoert-ist-ruecken-die-truppen-vor

But come on, I mean it's a lovely 500 year old monastery and all that -- but doesn't the CM gamer in you kind of want to fight that map?  Shades of Cassino!

 

(Actually, it's the 'Holy Mountains' behind that have interested me more all along)

Sviatohirsk. A few kilometers before Sviatohirsk, the internet and mobile phone reception suddenly went missing. Plumes of smoke rise from the pine forests, which stretch to the horizon in the deep green that is so typical of this region. This recreation area in the north of the Donbass is called “Ukrainian Switzerland”. Also of interest is a 17th-century monastery, picturesquely set on white rocks on the banks of the Seversky-Donets River with its gold-roofed roofs. Many Ukrainians usually come here for vacations. Today, however, there is war in Sviatohirsk. The Russian army has been attacking the small town, which has just 4,000 inhabitants, for three weeks. “You want to go to the front line?” asks the Ukrainian commander Vladimir angrily, waving his radio around wildly. “Sviatohirsk is the front line. Rockets and mortars hit every day. Just look around you!” The military like to exaggerate. But you quickly realize that the situation is indeed serious.

Resistance in the adventure park

The little place is deserted. Only soldiers sit in the few vehicles that are on the road. They dash across the streets at top speed to avoid being shot at. They park their cars in the shelter of house walls and under trees. "Within that week, the Russians advanced five kilometers," explains Commander Vladimir, just outside the city center in front of the Strekoza amusement park in the middle of the forest. You can tell from the officer's hesitation how reluctant he is to admit it. "They're only making headway because they're bombing all the villages to the ground," says the plump, bearded man in uniform.

Edited May 3, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Haiduk]

16 minutes ago, Huba said:

Out of my newsstream he goes, this is silly. 

Сurrently territorial defense units can be moved to other areas only according of the Comamnd-in-Chief decision. Probably parliament is going to to pass changes to the law to simplify and clarify the procedure.

In January edition TD could be moved to other areas, but only for territorial defense tasks (i.e. without participation in combat operations). Since 19th of February the change was passed that TD units can be involved also in zone of combat actions. 

[Aragorn2002]

58 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

And your list of supporters may be missing one or two other countries?

They just don't make as much noise.

[Huba]

Words have consequences, as Lavrov's case shows. Apparently Israel never vetoed Estonian Spike export to Ukraine. It might not be gamechanging, but a bunch of NLOS ATGMs won't make Russians lives there easier, especially if other countries like Poland jump on the bandwagon too. 

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-705695

Edited May 3, 2022 by Huba

[Probus]

This may be a bit naughty, but I think Ukraine should strike Moskow during the parade. Not a serious strike. Just enough to get the air raid sirens going.   

I can't figure out if Putin wants to go all in or cut his losses. 

[Huba]

We were (half)joking some pages ago about smuggling Switchblades to Moscow just for the occasion. If I was to bet, I'd say that Putin won't show on the parade personally precisely because of this threat. 

[Ts4EVER]

Armies should probably start to seriously invest in some kind of "social media division". Just how in WW2 before an offensive armies would generate fake radio traffic and such, these days you need to generate fake "opsec breaches" or civilian posts about your army being spotted somewhere it isn't.

[Harmon Rabb]

Now that we have an update on the Nazi situation in Ukraine, does anyone have an update on the birds that Ukraine turned into bioweapons?

Or was that propaganda so silly that even Russia decided to drop it?

[womble]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

https://inf.news/en/military/3ffe50c1ae6059ddd38c4adb8fb15621.html

I think the British media might be a bit optimistic on this one. Or at least "shading" the news. While the 56th AC might be equipped in the future (so "will be equipped" isn't quite a fib) with Dark Eagle, it seems unlikely they are currently equipped with it. Static testing of the rocket booster was only commenced in October last year... and according to Wikipedia, the Army "hopes" to begin live fire testing this year.

Now, maybe they're gonna live fire test it on a live combat range... but I kinda doubt it...  And it'd be a miracle delivery, so far ahead of schedule, for a high tech system that, IIRC, was suffering quite a lot from development issues.

[BlackMoria]

1 minute ago, Ts4EVER said:

Armies should probably start to seriously invest in some kind of "social media division". Just how in WW2 before an offensive armies would generate fake radio traffic and such, these days you need to generate fake "opsec breaches" or civilian posts about your army being spotted somewhere it isn't.

Absolutely a consideration.   Today, depending where the conflict is, you have got to assume driving your military element along a road or through some town, that somebody is using their smart phone to record you and that info is getting someplace you aren't going  to like it going.   That said, using same social media, your military can shoot the same video or photo and attribute it to another location or doctor any geo location clues in the photo or video.  With that much information coming in, it will be trying for enemy intel people to sort the wheat from the chaff so to speak.