How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

New episode of the strike on Zmiinyi island, probably on 30th of April. UKR Bayraktar destroyed some radar and comms equipment and hit SA-missiles depot. Operator says "we destroyed two antennas and two were slashed with fragments"

According to information of military journalist Roman Tsymbaliuk, Russian garrison on Zmiinyi had 42 men of 1299th maritime intelligence center and 744th communication center. Both units belong to Black Sea Fleet and dislocated in Sevastopol. Also there were several ZU-23-2 and Strela-10 of unknown unit. Reportedly only 8 servicemen survived and were evacuated, rest of personnel consider as missing.

Operative Comamnd "South" made a statement, that Russian Raptor boats conducted recon mission near the mouth of Danube during the night before their elimination. Probably both boats belonged to 338th maritime recon post of 1299th intelligence center - it has 4 boats Raptor/BK-16 classes. On the video were hit both types.

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

53 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Who tracks for units involved on Izium axis, there is new unit appeared - 56th air-assault regiment of 7th air-assault division (mountain). This regiment (whe it was a brigade) recently was dislocated in Kamyshyn, but since it was deployed in the regiment in 2021, it was moved to Feodosia, occupied Crimea and sibourdinated to 7th division.

This guy from 56th regiment was killed 28th of April. Fresh one. 

This unit was previously placed around Kherson, was it not?

Interesting, if very rough analysis from Mr. Schlotmann:

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, akd said:

This unit was previously placed around Kherson, was it not?

Interesting, if very rough analysis from Mr. Schlotmann:

wow, that is really thin in some areas in the south.  22.8km and 10km per BTG.  I kinda like those odds.  Unfortunately it seems to be terrain where UKR can't mass anything w/o being seen.  The leaves on trees will certainly help hide things, but only if the area actually has trees.

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

wow, that is really thin in some areas in the south.  22.8km and 10km per BTG.  I kinda like those odds.  Unfortunately it seems to be terrain where UKR can't mass anything w/o being seen.  The leaves on trees will certainly help hide things, but only if the area actually has trees.

It looks like UA should be able to re-take the northern Kherson region at any time, if they choose to. So why don't they? Does it gives us a hint about future of the southern front?

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, akd said:

This unit was previously placed around Kherson, was it not?

Two BTGs according to that map. Probably to Izium moved the third. 

Also our General Staff reported Russians is moving to Izium axis Smerch MLRS and the battery of 240 mm 2S4 heavy mortars. Latter probably from Mariupol, though it can be useful there too

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

It looks like UA should be able to re-take the northern Kherson region at any time, if they choose to. So why don't they? Does it gives us a hint about future of the southern front?

Because on the north of Kherson in Vysokopillia - Davydiv Brid area Russians concentrated enough forces, which allow them not only hold this area, but even try to advance toward Kryvyi Rih or Nikopol

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, akd said:

This unit was previously placed around Kherson, was it not?

Interesting, if very rough analysis from Mr. Schlotmann:

So the world kinda makes sense in the Izyum and Kreminna fronts.  Not only does the UA have the numbers (and they had plenty of time) the terrain is not attacker friendly (at least not from Kreminna).  But what in the hell is going on at Donetsk?  20 GTBs vs 3 Bdes?!  And it is a big frontage, which means the UA is stretched thinner, even if they are dug in.  A really big frontage per BTG does not mean the RA can't concentrate forces.

The math still does not add up either way.  Remember that the RA is not going to stick all its BTGs in a neat little line on these frontages.  They should only be able to put about 2/3rd of their combat power, leaving 1/3 in reserve, but based on RA performance to date, who knows if they are sticking to that?

I am at the point of calling this, barring the Second Coming throwing in with the RA; this whole Donbas Offensive has stalled and is either at a highwater mark or damn near it.  Looking at the ISW maps, this creeping RA advances do not look like they are going anywhere, pretty much as we suspected.

I think if Russia does "mobilize" in a Great War Against an Existential Threat Country 1/3 its size, filled with Nazi-Rabbis, it is likely going to throw troops on those lines just to hold onto what it can.  Putin will hold some "fair and free elections" and try to declare victory.  While Ukraine arms up and figures out how to go on operational-level offence.

Looking at this map, I can see how mainstream pundits were drawing big red lines all over the place; however, they missed the micro-realities of this war.  Russia is under crippling friction internally and externally - to the point we aren't even sure the RA wants to fight anymore.  The UA is still not only vastly superior on the information front "see- Farmhouse decapitation strike video", they are still able to hit the RA systems all the way back into Russia.  This make the RA operational machine even more fragile.

The Russians never solved-for-Offensive Operations in this war.  In part due to baffling mis-management, and I think in no small part to how Ukraine decided to fight on the defence, which we have talked about at length (see: precision artillery, UAVs and dispersed light infantry etc).  The only real question left here, to my mind, is "can Ukraine solve for broader Offensive Operations?"

That is the thing I am looking out for in the coming weeks.  Unless the whole rotten "Russian house of bull-sh&t" doesn't collapse in on itself.

[Boche]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

Words have consequences, as Lavrov's case shows. Apparently Israel never vetoed Estonian Spike export to Ukraine. It might not be gamechanging, but a bunch of NLOS ATGMs won't make Russians lives there easier, especially if other countries like Poland jump on the bandwagon too. 

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-705695

Im currently in a Spike equipped section, and If Spikes do make it to Ukraine I will be extremely happy. With a good amout of simulator time a group of guys can become VERY proficient at NLOS sniping in a matter of hours. I hadnt touched the system and was doing NLOS attacks (in the simulator) in an hour.

Edited May 3, 2022 by Boche

[Haiduk]

Some more details of operation, when were liberated villages on the T02104 road Kharkiv- Staryi Saltiv - Vovchansk. Three Russian armored vehciles (likely BMPs) destroyed/abandoned in Bayrak village near Momotove.

Also somewhere near Kharkiv, Russian Grad crew tried to drive across "tiny bridge" with predictable results

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

Just now, Boche said:

Im currently in a Spike equipped section, and If Spikes do make it to Ukraine I will be extremely happy. With a good amout of simulator time a group of guys can become VERY proficient at NLOS sniping in a matter of hours. I hadnt touched the system and was doing NLOS attacks (in the simulator) in an hour.

I gather that among the EU countries there should be around 10K SpikeLR misiles and 1K launchers at least. When UA runs out of Stugnas, those would constitute a hell of a backup option.

[dan/california]

The Russians just seem to folding up and going away everywhere between Kharkiv and the wider part of the Severtsky-Dontesk river. How much of that can they give up before artillery and other threats to their supply lines in Izyum becomes intolerable, and this wholes offensive just evaporates 

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The Russians just seem to folding up and going away everywhere between Kharkiv and the wider part of the Severtsky-Dontesk river. How much of that can they give up before artillery and other threats to their supply lines in Izyum becomes intolerable, and this wholes offensive just evaporates 

"Herr Putler, the flanks are very vulnerable to enemy counterstrokes"

I understand that not all terrain is equal, but I wonder which side has actually taken more territory in the last week?  When zoomed in it looks like RU has actually done something, but then looking at the scale I realize it's only like 10km.  Whereas UKR is now taking a lot of land west of the severtsky-donetsk.

[chrisl]

44 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So the world kinda makes sense in the Izyum and Kreminna fronts.  Not only does the UA have the numbers (and they had plenty of time) the terrain is not attacker friendly (at least not from Kreminna).  But what in the hell is going on at Donetsk?  20 GTBs vs 3 Bdes?!  And it is a big frontage, which means the UA is stretched thinner, even if they are dug in.  A really big frontage per BTG does not mean the RA can't concentrate forces.

The math still does not add up either way.  Remember that the RA is not going to stick all its BTGs in a neat little line on these frontages.  They should only be able to put about 2/3rd of their combat power, leaving 1/3 in reserve, but based on RA performance to date, who knows if they are sticking to that?

I suspect part of the answer to the "20 BTGs" in the Donetsk section is in the note on the lower left - UKR says Russia has 78 functional BTGs, the US says 93.  and "Missing BTG were placed in the Donetsk direction".  So there could be as few as 5 BTGs in that area.  Which would be a ginormous hole for Russia if it's really that few.

A possible way to resolve the difference is to assume that BTGs aren't being combined up to full strength, so if we take the ratio of the two estimates as a first guess, they might be getting combined up to 83% strength.  Is it right that that would leave each BTG with effectively either one reinforced infantry company or two understrength infantry companies?  And the BTGs are supposed to attack as independent units?

Edited May 3, 2022 by chrisl
typos

[akd]

42 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

But what in the hell is going on at Donetsk?  20 GTBs vs 3 Bdes?!

My guess would be that the strength of the D/LNR forces is being greatly exaggerated here.  “Regiments” are probably now not much more than weak battalions.

[Haiduk]

18 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

"Herr Putler, the flanks are very vulnerable to enemy counterstrokes"

I understand that not all terrain is equal, but I wonder which side has actually taken more territory in the last week?  When zoomed in it looks like RU has actually done something, but then looking at the scale I realize it's only like 10km.  Whereas UKR is now taking a lot of land west of the severtsky-donetsk.

I have a feeling our troops pointed the intention to attack directly from Chuhuiv to Kupiansk. Russian moved here some BTGs from Izium axis and probably from the NE of Kharkiv. And maybe this is what expected our comamnd. Though way to Kupiansk through Staryi Saltiv and Vovchanks much longer, but it turned out relatively free from concentrations of Russian forces except some screening units and LPR conscripts. But now we should aware Russian counter strike from the south. Also we must to cross Siverskyi Donets. It enough wide in Staryi Saltiv area, so I, suppose we will move 11 km north along it eastern bank to Rubizhne village (not to be confused with Rubizhne city in Luhansk oblast), where the river is narrowest. We also can cross the river on a dam in Pechenihy, but its controversal information about who controls this village and what conditions of the dam

Edited May 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Rubizhne village (not to be confused with Rubizhne city in Luhansk oblast), where the river is narrowest.

Were they TRYING to be confusing? Hardest place to keep straight in the history of mankind! Fingers crossed Ukr has found a weak spot protected by unhappy conscripts. Sort of amazing the Russians would be that stupid given that Stalingrad is their national myth. But then they have been stupid the entire war...

[TheVulture]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Were they TRYING to be confusing? Hardest place to keep straight in the history of mankind!

Yeah, you'd never find that sort of confusion in the US with a mere 91 towns called Wahington. And 35 called Lebanon, for crying out loud. 

[The_Capt]

44 minutes ago, chrisl said:

I suspect part of the answer to the "20 BTGs" in the Donetsk section is in the note on the lower left - UKR says Russia has 78 functional BTGs, the US says 93.  and "Missing BTG were placed in the Donetsk direction".  So there could be as few as 5 BTGs in that area.  Which would be a ginormous hole for Russia if it's really that few.

A possible way to resolve the difference is to assume that BTGs aren't being combined up to full strength, so if we take the ratio of the two estimates as a first guess, they might be getting combined up to 83% strength.  Is it right that that would leave each BTG with effectively either one reinforced infantry company or two understrength infantry companies?  And the BTGs are supposed to attack as independent units?

Supposed to.  Of course the state of their logistics is also in serious question.  Oryx is showing they are coming up on 900 logistics vehicles gone.  A quick scan of re-fuelers takes me to 95, and that is not counting the 285 vehicles so badly damaged they cannot be confirmed as what they were when they walk among the living.

A BTG looks like it has 2-3 re-fuelers per:

At 95 confirmed losses, we are talking roughly 30 BTGs worth of re-fuelers, that is 1/3 of the overall initial invasion force.  But that is ok cause that invasion force lost most of its tanks anyway.

And then this, plus Donetsk half-manned BTGs, leads to the large, awkward question - and I am talking "night-after surprise cousins" awkward - "Why would anyone try an operational pincer with a broken shoulder?!"

Look, before anyone wonders, I want Russia to lose and lose so bad that they either remove Putin and try to re-normalize, or we just accept Cold War 2.0 and they can become a Chinese gas station.  My assessment is that Russia is losing, to the point that they have lost this war and just haven't decided "how bad".  No, my issue here is one of professional disgust at this freakin amateur hour job; it is the worst the military profession can be, getting a lot of people killed for nothing.  We have like one supreme rule in this gig - get the job done as quickly and cleanly as possible.  The second a military is not trying to do this, they do not deserve the honor of the name "military" as they are essentially a heavily armed mob.

Throw in what is looking more like a culture of war crimes, and the Russian's can mobilize every fighting age person they have and they will still only have an undisciplined mob, not a fighting force.  

Edited May 3, 2022 by The_Capt

[TheVulture]

Russian supply column a few km  NE of Karkhiv got whacked. It's not going well for the Russians in this part of Ukraine.  (And quite a lot of the things randomly blowing up near Belgorod are only just over the border in this area too).

 

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by TheVulture

[Haiduk]

13 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Russian supply column a few km  NE of Karkhiv got whacked. It's not going well for the Russians in this part of Ukraine.  (And quite a lot of the this randomly blowing up near Belgorod are only just over the border in this area too).

 

 

Vicinity of Vesele village - looks like strike on supply routes of Rusian group in Tsyrkuny - Lyptsi area.

[Vacillator]

24 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Russian supply column a few km  NE of Karkhiv got whacked. It's not going well for the Russians in this part of Ukraine.  (And quite a lot of the this randomly blowing up near Belgorod are only just over the border in this area too).

 

 

That one is worth watching to the end.  Jeez Louise...

[akd]

Longer version of previously seen Ukrainian artillery video:

 

[Vacillator]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

Longer version of previously seen Ukrainian artillery video:

 

So artillery, king of the battlefield again.  Wow!

[The_Capt]

37 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Russian supply column a few km  NE of Karkhiv got whacked. It's not going well for the Russians in this part of Ukraine.  (And quite a lot of the this randomly blowing up near Belgorod are only just over the border in this area too).

 

 

Looks like the bagged a re-fueler or two, and I think we are seeing ammo cook-off too.

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile @akd

I don't know either relate this death to this war or not, but... it suspicious

Lt.Colonel Grigoriy Tarasenko. Until 2013 was a chief of 243rd miliatry range Molkino, Krasnodar kray. This unit and military range was officially disbanded and closed in 2013, but the range continued own work. It became training center for LDPR separatists, Russian volunteers and Vagner PMC. Current duty of Tarasenko is unknown. There is no official news in local media about his death. Local citizen just saw his grave on the cemetry. Data of death 23th of March

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by Haiduk