How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

That is probably why this thing in the Donbas looks more like a land-grab than a deliberate attack.

So they are reduced to hoping either that the UA has trouble attacking them in fixed positions and/or that the West will strongarm Ukraine into a ceasefire that leaves them with (wasteland) 'facts on the ground'?

[dan/california]

Do we know if the Russians are down to trying to actually hold pieces of their line with LPDR conscripts yet? Because those guys would evaporate even faster than the Romanians outside of Stalingrad with a decent push. 

[Huba]

Speaking of Russian offensive, that's hard to believe:

 

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

 

[dan/california]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-24

Todays ISW, not a lot of changes.

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, Huba said:

Speaking of Russian offensive, that's hard to believe:

 

Unless I grievously misunderstand the situation, the only possible explanation for the Russians attempting this is Putin playing with the Russian version of pixeltruppen, BADLY. 

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, Maquisard manqué said:

Why seize territory that, in the taking, you turn into a depopulated wasteland?

Its too easy

On a more serious note, I doubt a substantial amount of Russians will ever truly know the extent of the devastation inflicted on the country they wish to control, or, that any living soul there will plan to poison or murder them if they came. Even if they did, Im sure a little cognitive dissonance will go a long way.

As long as Putin can claim to have captured all this vital wasteland with resources Russia wont be able to sell, then the operation is a victory. Because thats what this humiliated fallen and forgotten empire needs apparently. 

It is very telling when the Moskva sinking caused 10 times the uproar in Russian Telegram than pesky war crimes being reported, as if nobody cared in the first place about civilians getting bombed. But when every other comment goes along the lines of slaughtering all the khokhols regardless of uniform or not, that kind of answers itself.

[Machor]

A helpful and detailed breakdown of the Russian VDV BTG order of battle (with pictures!) - auspiciously timely before the BFC's impending announcement that they will be releasing the next CMBS module as an Orthodox Easter present: 

The source material in Russian:

 

[Machor]

Combat footage through the eyes of a Russian NCO or junior officer fighting in Kreminna: He shows off a captured NLAW and the ID of a Ukrainian serviceman (presumably KIA). The AKs aren't grunt-issue. The footage appears to have been edited by a censor:

 

[dan/california]

Are the Russians drunk ALL THE TIME? These guys don't even look like getting spotted is a possibility. Just casually set up and adjust the sight, with good relaxed camera work.

[Machor]

Germany supposedly supplying 100 MAN HX81 tank transporters - If this comes through, could be a crucial asset for repairing damaged tanks and SPGs in a war of attrition (Alternatively, can they be used for strategic mobility?):

 

[MikeyD]

That missile launch. B'jeeebus, that's flat country. That flat horizon looks like it was lifted straight from CMBS!  Roughly counting the seconds in flight, that may have been a 2km shot.

[danfrodo]

43 minutes ago, Huba said:

Speaking of Russian offensive, that's hard to believe:

 

please let this be true.  Maybe Putin has brilliant idea - I'll attack where they least expect!  Except that everyone can see any buildups.  Yes, please drive 30km or so up this road.  It's a lot easier to destroy things sitting on roads.  Maybe RA will  unhinge Kerson defenses all by themselves.  

[akd]

Oil depot in Bryansk on fire after multiple explosions.  Fires are widely separated, so doesn’t appear to be an isolated accident.

[Machor]

RE: The Polish Warmate 'suicide' drone / loitering munition (which has been supplied to Ukraine)

It is claimed that Polish TB2s will be able to carry these drones as munitions: Unless if I missed something, this makes Poland the first military to field a drone that launches a drone?

 

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

Oil depot in Bryansk on fire after multiple explosions.  Fires are widely separated, so doesn’t appear to be an isolated accident.

Bryansk? Must be spontaneous combustion...

[Probus]

On 4/23/2022 at 6:22 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Blame is something that is cast downward, not upward.  People at higher levels, therefore, try to ensure that the failure is assignable to a subordinate.  Especially if the true cause was within their area of responsibility.

You may have missed something Steve. What if the blame is Putin's? If Putin is calling the shots like Stalin did then nobody wants to blame him. That's gonna make it more difficult for the army to change tactics too. 

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[chuckdyke]

Ukrainian airspace is not Russian airspace. Ref: Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Wesley Clark. In my humble opinion if NATO delivers the hardware its air forces should secure Ukrainian airspace to ensure delivery. NATO can't afford that Russia wins this war. Real or imagined, putin merely needs to manufacture a victory. Something like we stopped NATO supplying the Ukrainian fascists. 

[sross112]

I think we have a bit to wait for a major UA offensive. So far they have played this right so I'd expect them to know not to interrupt their enemy when they are making a mistake. Time is on their side and I'm sure they have a very clear picture of what the RA has where and it's possible intentions. Whether the RA plan is to nibble one village at a time and lose a BTG a day or kick off a big attack with everything they have, the option for letting them do it and spend themselves is the best one for the UA.

As Steve has said a couple times the UA will definitely keep nibbling at the low hanging fruit but they still need more time before they do their own big push. Their heavy regular brigades have been engaged since day 1. I know of the 1st, 3rd and 17th Tank Brigades of their regulars. I'm not sure if there are more than that or if they have any reserve tank brigades coming online but those have been in the heavy combat areas pretty much non-stop. 1st has had a breather since the retreat from Kyiv but the 3rd and 17th have been around Izyum so I don't think they have had a break. I'm not sure which one but I think it was the 3rd that got hammered in the opening around Kherson while on maneuvers. 

I would think that they would want their regular units to be the majority of an offensive force. I'm not doubting the quality of their reserves but the regular brigades are known quantities and the reserve brigades are unknown until they spend some time in the line. So I'd expect to see some reserve formations replacing some regulars over the next couple weeks and then a couple weeks after that there might be an operation kicking off.

The UA also needs time to shape the back field. The weapons are on their way or arriving but they need to get them in service and start reducing the support and logistic structures of the RA before launching anything big. Get the 155s out there killing their arty and the HIMARS hitting anything juicy and combustible. Hopefully while the UA is doing that part the RA continues to attack and burns up a bunch of their tactical supplies also.

The enemy always gets a vote. Their vote that changes this is if they were actually able to do a major offensive maneuver and break through. In that case I believe the UA would wait for a target of opportunity and counter attack earlier. If it continues to be the slow grind they will wait. Either way the UA has time on it's side. The RA will only grow weaker by the day and the UA will get stronger. 

I was trying to game out the options for the UA counterstrokes but my NATO Presidential level ISR subscription ran out. There look to be options in the south and the east but without having a real good picture of what is where, what we think is an opportunity from our limited data could very well not be a realistic option. The other problem is we really have no idea what the UA has to work with. Will they have 3, 16 or 25 brigades to conduct the operation? Makes a big difference. 

[benpark]

Once/if the Ukrainians can get over to the offensive in a given area, the Russian low-morale and organization factors should be even more crucial. I can envision a scenario where large amounts of Russian units could be induced to panic and lose all cohesion if subjected to their own medicine.

It's one thing to have the momentum of being on the attack (as ruinous as this one is) and the apparent Russian motivational aspect of the promise of ill-gotten gains, and another to be at the receiving end of serious punishment on a larger scale than we have seen the Ukrainians deal out thus far. The right combination (the new artillery should provide some of that) could conceivably send the right Russian units reeling and opening up un-fillable gaps (due to the shortages in manpower, tanks, etc), and set off a chain-reaction from there. This Russian army seems like a very brittle force, with little in the way of deep reconnaissance to alert them of Ukrainian intent. I'd be looking for the right area to try to set that off - some of these fought-out units that have been fed back into the grinder with no rest and refit seem good candidates, or units heavy with foreign fighters (if there are indeed many). The motivational equation seems like it has a lot more area to play out still.

The question in my (and others here) mind is - What do the Ukrainians have to deal this offensive punishment with, and when is the right time? The Russians are still apparently on the attack, so maybe an earlier opportunity will arise. How much of these new units of recently trained recruits are in the field currently? I might discount that newly trained force as somewhat unready in many cases, but I expect these units to be motivated beyond any comparison in recent historical memory.

[Probus]

16 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Probably not at once, but the 'Russian Federation' would surely become a lot more 'Federation' and a lot less 'Russian'. 

That's a Confederation.

[Kinophile]

@Battlefront.com your assault idea shares similarities in execution with the Chinese tactics in Korea, yes?

Obviously force composition is different, Chinese were much lighter, but strong similarities in using infiltration to induce panic, avoiding their mechanical mass and exploiting low morale and leadership.

[Vanir Ausf B]

 

[sburke]

18 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

 

it is getting hard to write this stuff off as just Russian infrastructure failures.  Granted it could be viewer confirmation bias, but do we have any reports of normal Russian accident rates?  Be nice to know for sure that this is really above and beyond as opposed to..   oh yeah another drunk Russian smoking right under the "DANGER -flammable - no smoking" sign.  In this case apparently 2 drunk Russian smokers....

Edited April 25, 2022 by sburke