How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Splinty]

24 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

My opinion (worth what you paid for it), is that it has more to do with lack of discipline and professionalism in the army. That's an indictment of the NCO corps and the junior officers. Nothing we haven't talked about there.

Lots of my troopers came from rural areas in the South of the US. Lots of them. BUT they were well trained and the NCOs that were my team sergeants were the best in the business. There was never a question that our guys would behave.

Dave

My experience as well. As a squad leader, some of my beat team leaders were either rural or inner city. 

[LongLeftFlank]

5 hours ago, sburke said:

maybe I should have caveated that with "in this thread"  

nope, it was @The_Capt.

 

Edited April 7, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[MSBoxer]

The TV and other news outlets are full of experts commenting and "predicting" what comes next in Ukraine.  At some point other experts will write the history of this war.

I find this community and this thread to be more on point.  When the history is written I will return to these posts to compare what our members thought, how they felt and their observations.  Perhaps we have a resident historian who could encapsulate this thread with a day by day breakdown for future reference.  THAT is a "history" I would happily buy, because it represents us and probably so many others.

[Ultradave]

11 minutes ago, Splinty said:

My experience as well. As a squad leader, some of my beat team leaders were either rural or inner city. 

I had some experience with the British and Canadian armies as well (brief experience) but came away VERY impressed with their NCOs, from junior NCOs to SGMs. Just outstanding. Don't have a good idea of their background but really I don't think it matters. The professionalism of the NCOs and that they pass down to the soldiers under them is the key, regardless of background. It's part of the task - take a bunch of young soldiers from widely different backgrounds and mold them into an effective team.

Dave

[sburke]

10 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

nope, it was @The_Capt.

 

hell with him.  After testing the Soviet campaign in CW he's off the Christmas list.     

[danfrodo]

I just saw report that UA had advanced SE of kharkiv along the M03 taking Malynivka.  If they can continue to advance on this axis then RU northern 'offensive' via Izyum area would be cut off.  That would be really funny -- if before the russians can even get going they are cut and scrambling backwards. 

This would be just like the Russians so far in this war.  Advance too far w/o protecting their LOCs, like they did east of Kyiv w those tendrils that looked so menacing at first, then just started to disappear.

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

I deem that unlikely.  The outrage on the atrocities being revealed is causing a upswell of support in Western countries to do something... anything over and above what is being done now.  That is a very upset electorate that politicians need to manage expectations.  If Putin plays the chemical or nuclear card, that ground swell of outrage may push NATO governments into a position they need to get militarily involved.  And if that happens, NATO may have to go 'all in'.   If you are going to dance with the devil, you need to come prepared to win.   Putin, if he is aware of what his happening outside his borders knows that.   It is over at the point if he goes down that route.  NATO will probably be forced to go 'all in' in Ukraine.  That is game over for Russia's little adventurism in Ukraine.

Putin has sort missed the point where that sort of doubling down makes sense, not that it ever did. If the battle for Kyiv had been closer there might have been a point where WMD looked worth trying, at least by utterly twisted, amoral, and short term logic that seems to guide Putin's decision making. It could have just maybe, barely, conceivably, at least given his army a chance to march thru Kyiv, once. Now it just gets NATO in the war without nearly enough battlefield upside. If NATO gets in Putins goes from trying to salvage something/anything in Ukraine too praying he hangs on to Belarus. 

[Jace11]

6 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

There's a video doing the rounds that seems to show Ukrainians killing RU soldiers.

Not going post it here as no-one needs to see that gruesome ****. But those of you that have seen it: did you see the shoulder patch Ukrainian flag on one the soldiers involved? Upside down. What a curious mistake to make if you are a patriotic Ukrainian.

It's not even that my conscience needs it to be a false flag. If they are murdering Russian soldiers, I am okay with it at this point. I wish they didn't and I don't think it is smart. But my heart isn't exactly weeping for those "poor Russian conscripts". Unlike the Geneva convention, my conscience does value reciprocity. Act like beasts, get put down like beasts.

I saw the original uncensored version earlier today. The guy they shot, appeared to me, to have already been decapitated, but like a "headless chicken" the brain stem still had some function, so the remains were breathing. I would not define him as alive, yet the BBC, CNN and many other western media outlets etc have leapt on it. My fear is they have only seen the censored version (which was published by NYT?), and this completely hides any details of the "victim" other than they are breathing. All the other media outlets have just copy/pasted the footage without seeing the original. Sorry for being so gruesome, and i wish I hadn't seen it at all. This is just my opinion having seen the original clip.

There's a better explanation in the top post here: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/ty6s93/video_appears_to_show_ukrainian_soldiers/

Edited April 8, 2022 by Jace11

[danfrodo]

I am still of the opinion (and it's just that, me making stuff up) that Putin was never serious about WMD.  My belief is that he was terrified of NATO intervention and knew very well how much WMD would cause us to not intervene -- he was right on that one.  But the point is that he was a scared little troll saying "look out, I'm craaaaaaazy". 

[db_zero]

I just watched a news report that openly said Ukrainian soldiers are now in the US training on use of Switchblade drones. I was shocked as I would think you would keep this low key.

Now that raises question of what else they are being trained to use.

I guess congressional action reviving the Lend Lease Act of WW2 has opened the floodgates to Ukraine.

 

[BeondTheGrave]

1 hour ago, Ultradave said:

My opinion (worth what you paid for it), is that it has more to do with lack of discipline and professionalism in the army. That's an indictment of the NCO corps and the junior officers. Nothing we haven't talked about there.

Lots of my troopers came from rural areas in the South of the US. Lots of them. BUT they were well trained and the NCOs that were my team sergeants were the best in the business. There was never a question that our guys would behave.

Dave

I have to agree here. I think its a big reason why the US has, more or less, stayed free of these kinds of events during the war on terror. Its a multivariable issue for sure, but NCO control, discipline, and overall unit/institutional culture are all really important here. The US is emblematic of the west in this regard, but probably not especially unique. Strong NCOs and Jr officers can keep control over their soldiers, discipline and high unit morale keeps soldiers in check in necessary ways. 

I also wonder how much violence is an important factor in this, especially re: unit culture and a means of enforcing intraunit discipline. A big component of western NCOs and officers is that they establish strong authority through personality and leadership skills, but in the Russian Army violence is far more common and acceptable. NCOs use violence as a tool to enforce compliance, and theyre willing to beat a soldier up to do it. In the US that would be, AFAIK, basically unheard of. In fact the stereotype I've heard is quite the opposite. If someone wants to correct me there I welcome it. But it seems to me like a kind of cultural training. The NCO beats me up, kicks my ass, uses violence to get me to comply. So when I have to get this civilian population under control, I become the victimizer myself. 

IIRC the last time violence was more commonplace in training was during Vietnam, and we did see outbreaks of this kind of violence with My Lai and (allegedly) Tiger Force. And of course in the mid-century, the regular pre- and post-WWII Army was more brutal, and during Korea in particular you saw US troops engage in more violence against civilian populations. During WWII itself, training regiments were modified to speed up training and work with drafted manpower, decreasing violence and along with it creating a different kind of soldier. An interesting dynamic perhaps. 

[CAZmaj]

6 hours ago, billbindc said:

I hear that a lot outside of this forum. The problem for Putin is that wmd'ing or nuking Ukraine loses him every last bit of support he is currently receiving from China/India/etc and in return, he gets an irradiated/spoiled mess that is a net negative in terms of security, trade, etc. The point of all of this was to aggrandize power. Escalating does the opposite, permanently.

China will not care much. India will protest but that will be it.

[CAZmaj]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

There were fighters of Georgian Legion. Their commander, which 3 months spent in Russian captivity in 2008,  lost several comrades in Irpin' and saw during the clashed all, what we all have seen just now, told he and his unit will never take Russians prisoners alive. Especilly Kadyrov's fighters.    

I understand, such guys like HRW and rose-heared millenials will resent. But here is not fantasy world of white unicorns. Here is war of annihilation against us. After Bucha and many other places, which we will se soon, there will be too hard for commanders to keep sodiers from such really terrible actions.  

PS: some people in Ukraine believe that our flag have to be upside down ) This is long hystorical and even esoteric discussion in our society. 

+1

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, CAZmaj said:

China will not care much. India will protest but that will be it.

What really matters to Putin is NATO planes utterly wrecking his army, and maybe punching out his ugly little pet in Belarus while they are at it.

[LongLeftFlank]

24 minutes ago, CAZmaj said:

China will not care much. India will protest but that will be it.

WMDs?

IMHO, a mass murder of civilians using gas (delivered how btw?) or a small nuke would surely trigger rapid deployment of US/NATO AAA defences such as Patriots (plus security elements and possibly aircraft) to 'shield' Ukraine population centers... which would also just happen to impose an effective no fly zone across the entire conflict zone. Goodbye Russian air superiority.

Gas (artillery delivered) is of very limited use in mobile battlespaces, and it quickly becomes a hazard to both sides. Decon requires a great deal of specialized work and equipment and I doubt the RA troops are up to it.

Militarily, the only useful application I can see would be to assist a break-in to UA fixed positions along the Donbas front. How good is those troops' NBC gear? Can that be sent along if it hasn't already?  And anyway, how badly does the UA need to hold those positions at this stage? they could always revert to mobile hybrid warfare like the others.

Again, control of territory seems to have limited significance in this kind of war, in a purely military sense. Demolishing the enemy army and its ability to wage war is what's paramount. And I just don't see NBC furthering this, short of nuking whole cities. The Ukrainians have never showed any sign of being able to be intimidated into negotiating. NBC would only harden that resolve.

Bac warfare is Pandora's box, making no distinction among hosts. Militarily useless unless you plan to secure a stalemate by killing everyone at home and abroad.....

(One man's inexpert opinion)

Edited April 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[db_zero]

Gas could be in the form of incapacitating or sleep agents.

During the battle of Hue city Viet-Nam the US used tear gas extensively in the urban fighting. The VC didn't have gas masks. I guess it was not a violation of the Laws of War at the time. Don't know what the current laws of war view the use of non-lethal agents on the battlefield.

I doubt the Russians will use chemical weapons, but its already been reported the US has sent detectors that give warning. I would think that if the Russians were serious about using chemical weapons some preparation and great care would be needed to handle the munitions and it would be detected.

Looking back at reference material there are a number of agents the Russian use and their effect and duration can vary. Weather plays a role too.

Gas was used in Syria recently. Maybe the Syrian volunteers have past experience operating in the space.

While I doubt the Russians will use gas Putin is the sort of person who just doesn't care.

Edited April 8, 2022 by db_zero

[LongLeftFlank]

2 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Gas could be in the form of incapacitating or sleep agents.

During the battle of Hue city Viet-Nam the US used tear gas extensively in the urban fighting. The VC didn't have gas masks. I guess it was not a violation of the Laws of War at the time. Don't know what the current laws of war view the use of non-lethal agents on the battlefield.

I doubt the Russians will use chemical weapons, but its already been reported the US has sent detectors that give warning. I would think that if the Russians were serious about using chemical weapons some preparation and great care would be needed to handle the munitions and it would be detected.

I'm not saying NBC has no military applications, just that in this environment they are pretty limited.

Politically, they create severe blowback, likely up to and including a de facto Western intervention just short of WW3. To protect the children, etc. Plenty of precedent for that: Korean War, Vietnam War, Egypt 1973....

Agreed on your other points. RA readiness to wage this kind of warfare is.... questionable. When were the filters on all those BMPs last tested lol?

[MikeyD]

The drawback of chemical weapons is Russian artillery and weapons stockpiles keep getting whacked by Ukraine, which means the likelihood is high that you'll inadvertently poison your own side when your poison gas stockpile gets whacked. Especially if Ukraine gets wind of (pun intended) what's happening beforehand.

[db_zero]

2 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I'm not saying NBC has no military applications, just that in this environment they are pretty limited.

Politically, they create severe blowback, likely up to and including a de facto Western intervention just short of WW3. To protect the children, etc. Plenty of precedent for that: Korean War, Vietnam War, Egypt 1973....

Agreed on your other points. RA readiness to wage this kind of warfare is.... questionable. When were the filters on all those BMPs last tested lol?

Russia and Syria have used gas recently in Syria in cities on civilians. Its can't be 100% discounted. As I mentioned Putin just doesn't care. While the recent screw ups and incompetence of the Russian army is legendary, they aren't that stupid to not learn from their recent mistakes.

As the saying goes past performance is no indication of future performance. You can bet those survivors of the recent fiasco have learned lessons the hard way and its prudent to expect them to apply some if not all of the lessons learned.

[db_zero]

7 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

The drawback of chemical weapons is Russian artillery and weapons stockpiles keep getting whacked by Ukraine, which means the likelihood is high that you'll inadvertently poison your own side when your poison gas stockpile gets whacked. Especially if Ukraine gets wind of (pun intended) what's happening beforehand.

That is true but depending on the agent it could be binary-meaning its inert until ready for actual use- I don't know if Russia uses binaries.

It could also be delivered on long range missiles from deep inside Russia.

In any case when has Russia cared about its troops? If a few dies from unfortunate events who cares?

Edited April 8, 2022 by db_zero

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, db_zero said:

Video from “Russia and Russian Military” expert on Russian performance. He states Russia can no longer achieve its political war goals, best they can do is achieve military goals…

 

 

I saw this when it first came out, which was around the 11th day of the war.  For some reason RUSI just re-uploaded it with an April 1st date, so it's not recent.

Kofman knows his stuff and this video is totally relevant to what's going on now.  However, I think even he is having some difficulty wrapping his head around how badly the war is going for Russia.  For example, here is what he posted to his Twitter feed on March 29th:

Quote

Although I've been saying for a while I didn't think there would be a battle for Kyiv, I will be surprised if they completely withdraw forces from the north, because that will free UKR units to reinforce JFO in the Donbas and give UKR a significant victory in this war.

You guys here know that I was predicting that either Russia would have to pull back forces from Kiev or face a military disaster.  If I was surprised at anything it wast that Putin allowed the humiliating withdrawal.  It was the FIRST sign of pragmatic battlefield activity, so I think I can be forgiven for being skeptical they would withdraw in time

Here's Kofman's feed.  Not much postings by him lately, which is a shame.  He had a large number of postings on April 3rd about Russia's ability to raise replacements/reinforcements is very good:

Steve

 

[Combatintman]

6 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Huh, actually you could be right, the turrets are very SPG-like, boxy.

2S19s by the look of it.

 

 

[Vergeltungswaffe]

6 hours ago, womble said:

... Or are modern "proper tanks" vulnerable to 30mm AC fire from the rear?

There's video waaaay back in this thread of a Ukraine BTR-4 (iirc) brewing up a Russian tank from the rear aspect quite nicely with their autocannon.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

@Battlefront.com to clarify, I'm talking about this Donbass/Dnipro battle,

So was I

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

But this coming battle, they could win. We should assume it's possible, as anything is. What would need to go right for them, wrong for UKR?

I got a little sidetracked by talking about how little the battle matters from the Russian perspective (e.g. Germany won a lot of battles in WW2... so what?), but I'll try and stay focused...

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

What if RuAF realized early that Kiev was a dead end and has been husbanding PGMs, enough to be a serious problem for UKR logistics, at just the wrong moment?

What if an overall commander emerges, one who has Putin's confidence and brutally shoves the army forward?

What if DLPR finally effect a breakthrough, simultaneous with the shoving campaign south from Izym/Kharkiv?

How does UKR retreat from the JTO and not lose? 

There are a number of scenarios where Russia could cause a lot of damage to Ukrainian forces.  A successful operation from Izyum would certainly be one of them.  From Putin's standpoint of trying to salvage something from this war it also makes sense that this is where the next battle will be.  Not unless there's a massive force building up in the south somewhere that we're unaware of (it is possible, but I don't think as likely).

For the Russians to pull this off they will have to fix a lot of the systemic problems that were evident on day one of this war.  Logistics, concentration of force, coordination of arms (especially air and artillery), and good tactical leadership.  These things are not just circumstantially broken, they are fundamentally broken.  So the chances of them fixing ALL of these things in the next few days... not likely.  Fixing some of them to the point of demonstrable improvement?  Yeah, possible.

What do I mean by circumstantial vs. fundamental broken?  Think of a shattered German, US, British, or Commonwealth unit in WW2.  At that time it is not combat capable and is probably broken in many ways.  But given some time out of the shooting with proper resupply and refit, capabilities are likely to be restored to a large extent (depends on specific circumstances, for sure).  With the Russians they went into this war saddled with so many problems that the best a shattered unit can hope for is returning to the same problematic state they had before the war started.  Which is to say at BEST the Russians MIGHT go into this fight with the same level of incompetence they had back in February.

Now, what about morale?  Well, *that* is not likely to be improved through rebuilding.  They went in poorly motivated and seeing your unit torn to shreds through incompetence leadership isn't exactly going to inspire better morale.  I suspect the trust between soldiers in many units is gone.  There was a severely wounded Russian soldier (spinal injury?) captured by Ukraine that spoke about how nobody came to help him.  Then some of other Russians came upon him and started to take his ammo and gear, then discovered he was alive.  They left him there.  He was found by Ukrainians almost a half a day later.  I'm sure a lot of this happened and the surviving soldiers know this.  Not confidence inspiring.

How about Ukraine?  Well, it went into the war far more ready and willing to fight than the Russians.  Their ability to fight and their willingness to sacrifice themselves for their country has INCREASED.

Take all of this, swirl it around, and maybe you'll see what I'm seeing.  Russia is not in a good position to do big things on the battlefield.  They may be able to pull of something decent short term, but I doubt they can sustain it long enough to matter.  Not just for the war, but also the battle that is shaping up.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

49 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Russia and Syria have used gas recently in Syria in cities on civilians. Its can't be 100% discounted. As I mentioned Putin just doesn't care. While the recent screw ups and incompetence of the Russian army is legendary, they aren't that stupid to not learn from their recent mistakes.

As the saying goes past performance is no indication of future performance. You can bet those survivors of the recent fiasco have learned lessons the hard way and its prudent to expect them to apply some if not all of the lessons learned.

As many others have said here repeatedly, rectifying systemic deficiencies on this massive scale takes years. You don't just conjure up working NBC filters for AFVs etc, or order them from China.

1. Putin is a cold-blooded technocrat turned cynical caudillo, and he has miscalculated, terribly. And he knows it now.  But frankly he shows no signs of insanity or irrationality. There is no other figure -- or grouping of figures -- I can see who can step in as 'White Tsar' to rule Russia in its current state. So I don't know that even a total defeat in Ukraine ends in his fall.  Excepting some of their intelligentsia, Russians seem determined to double down on lalalala-I-can't-hear-you-stupid, as is being amply shown day to day. The army is in no position to execute a coup; the Soviet/Russian state has carefully kept things that way since 1917.

2. Joe Biden (and whoever else is running his admin) would give their left glands (pick one) to be able to do a non ground forces (which aren't really needed tbh) intervention in Ukraine on 'humanitarian grounds' and claim credit in the midterm elections for ending the crisis. A Russian use of NBC would provide just that opening. Putin knows it.

Edited April 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank